OT: Official Warriors vs Nuggets Playoff Series Thread

20,357 Views | 226 Replies | Last: 2 yr ago by ducky23
bearister
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No more crossing the line than everyone else in the NBA that utilizes palming every dribble, picking up the dribble at the foul line and running it in for a layup, or the ludicrous Euro Step aka The Bailout for when the defender has sealed you off and you have no moves left.
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BearSD
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Big C said:


I haven't watched much NBA for the past 3 years or so, so it was interesting to tune in to a lot of GS/Denver Game 4. I was struck by the physicality and the aggressive defenses. Most of all, I couldn't believe what Jokic gets away with on offense, down in the low post. Obviously, somebody posting up is going to be able to back down his defender and the hand/arm that isn't dribbling is always going to be used, but NJ seemed to take it to a level I'd never seen before: just crashing straight back into his man and using his arm as an obvious lever.

I needed to step away and come back in order to notice it: That's crossing the line of what should be allowed.
Jokic is banging around in the post like big guys did in the 1970s. Embiid is doing the same. They are taking advantage of officiating that calls fouls for defenders' contact much more often than they do for contact initiated by the player handling the ball on offense.

In a way, it's the opposite of the situation that exists in college hoops, where the officials seem to get their jollies by calling offensive charging fouls for contact that would be no-calls or fouls on the defender in the NBA or international basketball.
concordtom
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I prefer to not allow palming and traveling.
I prefer to allow banging in the post.
I prefer to call offensive fouls when the ball handler "passes and crashes".
I prefer to allow defenders to draw charges, rather than be called for blocks.
I prefer to sit on my couch and watch, rather than official a game that is pretty impossible to officiate well. Those guys do a pretty damn good job, considering!
oskidunker
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Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.
Go Bears!
sonofabear51
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Yes, Denver was a tough out tonight. They are lucky to move on. The series with Memphis will be interesting. Assuming it is Memphis.
Big C
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oskidunker said:

Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.

The only way I could stand Aaron Gordon would be if he had gone to Cal.
smh
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a quarter minute post game celebration..
oskidunker
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Big C said:

oskidunker said:

Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.

The only way I could stand Aaron Gordon would be if he had gone to Cal.
You got that right.
Go Bears!
BearSD
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oskidunker said:

Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.
Warriors definitely need another big man. Look at how many offensive rebounds the Nuggets got in the last two games. A better opponent will not only get that many offensive rebounds, but they will convert them into more points than Denver did.
ducky23
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BearSD said:

oskidunker said:

Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.
Warriors definitely need another big man. Look at how many offensive rebounds the Nuggets got in the last two games. A better opponent will not only get that many offensive rebounds, but they will convert them into more points than Denver did.


Every playoff series is different. And every series is going to present different challenges.

Despite what most talking heads say, Denver presents a particularly difficult matchup for the warriors, specifically on defense. The entire premise of the warriors is that draymond can shut down the other team's big which allows the warriors to play small and then hunt the other team's big on offense.

But jokic is probably the only low post big (giannis is a different animal) that draymond can't handle by himself. Which caused all sorts of problems. It meant more looney with draymond minutes (which is less than ideal) and it meant draymond had to spend so much effort on jokic that he couldn't rebound like he usually does.

Against Memphis (for instance) it's going to be significantly easier for the warriors on defense (offensively a totally different story). Adams is unplayable so you don't have to worry about him. No other Memphis big presents any semblance of a post scoring threat (which is the warriors Achilles heel). Draymond could guard JJJ which allows him to roam more and play more of a free safety role on defense (which is what he does best). No other Memphis player can create their own shot besides Morant (and for whatever reason, he hasn't looked like himself in the playoffs).

Yes rebounding will be an issue, but I don't see how that's actually solved with another big. There aren't a lot of bigs out there who you can play alongside draymond unless it's a big who can shoot from outside and play defense. Not many out there. You just have to hope either wiggins can box out Clarke or that porter can start making shots. You get either one of those and the warriors win this going away.

Now of course, Memphis presents a completely different problem for the warriors with their defense. But my point is, Denver is unique. And they are one of the few teams that can actually really take advantage of the warriors lack of size because jokic is easily the best post scorer in the league.

So do the warriors really need another big? Sure. But there was no big out there in the buyout market who was going to be better than looney. And you just have to hope that wiseman will be healthy next year. (Yes, a gigantic IF)
oskidunker
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ducky23 said:

BearSD said:

oskidunker said:

Need a Big Man , badly.i cant stand Aaron Gordon.warriors are lucky Denver missing free throws.
Warriors definitely need another big man. Look at how many offensive rebounds the Nuggets got in the last two games. A better opponent will not only get that many offensive rebounds, but they will convert them into more points than Denver did.


Every playoff series is different. And every series is going to present different challenges.

Despite what most talking heads say, Denver presents a particularly difficult matchup for the warriors, specifically on defense. The entire premise of the warriors is that draymond can shut down the other team's big which allows the warriors to play small and then hunt the other team's big on offense.

But jokic is probably the only low post big (giannis is a different animal) that draymond can't handle by himself. Which caused all sorts of problems. It meant more looney with draymond minutes (which is less than ideal) and it meant draymond had to spend so much effort on jokic that he couldn't rebound like he usually does.

Against Memphis (for instance) it's going to be significantly easier for the warriors on defense (offensively a totally different story). Adams is unplayable so you don't have to worry about him. No other Memphis big presents any semblance of a post scoring threat (which is the warriors Achilles heel). Draymond could guard JJJ which allows him to roam more and play more of a free safety role on defense (which is what he does best). No other Memphis player can create their own shot besides Morant (and for whatever reason, he hasn't looked like himself in the playoffs).

Yes rebounding will be an issue, but I don't see how that's actually solved with another big. There aren't a lot of bigs out there who you can play alongside draymond unless it's a big who can shoot from outside and play defense. Not many out there. You just have to hope either wiggins can box out Clarke or that porter can start making shots. You get either one of those and the warriors win this going away.

Now of course, Memphis presents a completely different problem for the warriors with their defense. But my point is, Denver is unique. And they are one of the few teams that can actually really take advantage of the warriors lack of size because jokic is easily the best post scorer in the league.

So do the warriors really need another big? Sure. But there was no big out there in the buyout market who was going to be better than looney. And you just have to hope that wiseman will be healthy next year. (Yes, a gigantic IF)
Kevin Durant
Go Bears!
philbert
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KD is more like a 7 foot wing than a traditional big.
concordtom
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Anyone else disturbed by Jokic's traveling in the post?
concordtom
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Also, Curry travels every single time he gets the ball in the backcourt under the rim!!
Every time.
concordtom
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sonofabear51 said:

Yes, Denver was a tough out tonight. They are lucky to move on. The series with Memphis will be interesting. Assuming it is Memphis.

I believe Memphis went 3 of 4 vs W's this year.
If you include the play-in game last year, that's 4 of last 5 to Memphis.

Memphis has a good deep team. Too much size. I predict W's are eliminated. Torch passed. It's Ja time.
ducky23
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concordtom said:

sonofabear51 said:

Yes, Denver was a tough out tonight. They are lucky to move on. The series with Memphis will be interesting. Assuming it is Memphis.

I believe Memphis went 3 of 4 vs W's this year.
If you include the play-in game last year, that's 4 of last 5 to Memphis.

Memphis has a good deep team. Too much size. I predict W's are eliminated. Torch passed. It's Ja time.


Wanna bet?

Regular season means absolutely zero in the playoffs (nuggets beat dubs 3 out of 4 this year). Playoffs is all about matchups, experience, BBIQ, adjustments, coaching. Have you been watching the Memphis series? Yes, they are athletic, but they are very very young (and very very stupid). I mean really, minn should have won this series by now.

Phoenix and Boston scare me much more. Phoenix plays smart, has experience, is well coached and they have a big who can score in the low post.

Boston is just a way way better version of Memphis. They are just as long and athletic. They can switch everything and they play better defense. They are much smarter and they have more consistent ways to score.

If it is Memphis, I think you're going to be very surprised at how bad Memphis is gojng to look in their half court sets. Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything. The dubs are too battle tested to let that happen against such an undisciplined team.
BearSD
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ducky23 said:


Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything.


This is exactly what happened in the play-in game last season when the Grizzlies beat the Warriors.
ducky23
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BearSD said:

ducky23 said:


Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything.


This is exactly what happened in the play-in game last season when the Grizzlies beat the Warriors.



I mean…sure. But last year the warriors were the 8th seed and this year they are currently the title favorites, so it's possible they could be a slightly better team this year.

And again, it's a 7 game series. **** can happen in a one game series.
sonofabear51
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I agree with ducky at this point. And it looks like Memphis. I'll take the Dubs
BearSD
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ducky23 said:

BearSD said:

ducky23 said:


Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything.

This is exactly what happened in the play-in game last season when the Grizzlies beat the Warriors.

I mean…sure. But last year the warriors were the 8th seed and this year they are currently the title favorites, so it's possible they could be a slightly better team this year.

And again, it's a 7 game series. **** can happen in a one game series.
Warriors had the same issues in game 4 against Denver a few days ago, and Memphis has a much better team than Denver. The W's rebounding might not be as poor going forward as it was in that game, but turnovers have been a big issue even on the W's championship teams.

I'd put the W's probability of winning a series against Memphis at 60%. Not 80 or 90%.
concordtom
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ducky23 said:

concordtom said:

sonofabear51 said:

Yes, Denver was a tough out tonight. They are lucky to move on. The series with Memphis will be interesting. Assuming it is Memphis.

I believe Memphis went 3 of 4 vs W's this year.
If you include the play-in game last year, that's 4 of last 5 to Memphis.

Memphis has a good deep team. Too much size. I predict W's are eliminated. Torch passed. It's Ja time.


Wanna bet?

Regular season means absolutely zero in the playoffs (nuggets beat dubs 3 out of 4 this year). Playoffs is all about matchups, experience, BBIQ, adjustments, coaching. Have you been watching the Memphis series? Yes, they are athletic, but they are very very young (and very very stupid). I mean really, minn should have won this series by now.

Phoenix and Boston scare me much more. Phoenix plays smart, has experience, is well coached and they have a big who can score in the low post.

Boston is just a way way better version of Memphis. They are just as long and athletic. They can switch everything and they play better defense. They are much smarter and they have more consistent ways to score.

If it is Memphis, I think you're going to be very surprised at how bad Memphis is gojng to look in their half court sets. Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything. The dubs are too battle tested to let that happen against such an undisciplined team.

Good stuff, Duck, but the Warriors have 6'7" draymond playing center. And looney was nearly unplayable.

You think Boston beats Greekman?

I look forward to it all.
HoopDreams
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If you like guards, this is the series to watch
BearSD
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One more thing on Memphis: They have been great in the 4th quarter against Minnesota.

In the regular season the Warriors gave away several games late by being lackadaisical. They need to be better against the Grizzlies in the 2nd round.
BearSD
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Anthony Slater on rebounding in the Warriors-Grizzlies series:


Quote:

That group [Curry-Thompson-Poole-Green-Wiggins] is a nightmare to defend. It shredded Denver the first two playoff games and graded out as the most potent of any lineup (plus-23) in the series. But it dipped negative the final three games. The Nuggets upped their physicality and discovered ways to leverage power to combat skill. They rebounded 30.4 percent of their misses against that lineup.

That's an offensive rebound rate that would've ranked fifth-best in the NBA this season. Which team led the league? Memphis. The Grizzlies rebounded 33.8 percent of their misses. It's essential to their attack and a number that could define this upcoming second-round battle.
https://theathletic.com/3279217/2022/04/30/warriors-grizzlies-series-preview/
ducky23
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BearSD said:

ducky23 said:

BearSD said:

ducky23 said:


Sure, they could still beat the warriors, but it would require the dubs to turn over the ball like crazy and absolutely fail to rebound anything.

This is exactly what happened in the play-in game last season when the Grizzlies beat the Warriors.

I mean…sure. But last year the warriors were the 8th seed and this year they are currently the title favorites, so it's possible they could be a slightly better team this year.

And again, it's a 7 game series. **** can happen in a one game series.


I'd put the W's probability of winning a series against Memphis at 60%. Not 80 or 90%.


I don't think anyone thinks the dubs are 90% to win the series. Right now, they are -200, which is roughly a little over 65% which seems more or less right to me. If maybe a tad low.

Again, I think what most people forget is that regular season basketball is COMPLETELY different than playoff basketball. During the regular season, you consistently get half ass efforts from most teams, there is almost zero game planning and there are certainly no game to game adjustments being made as in a 7 game series. I mean, in the past, the warriors would even hide certain looks or strategies against certain teams so they could save it for the playoffs.

So there are some teams who are going to be much better in the playoffs than the regular season because of style of play/personnel (Boston, mil, warriors) and some who will be worse (Memphis, Utah).

Even before the playoffs started I believed Memphis was slightly overrated when compared to their regular season performance. The playoffs tend to be more grind it out. More half court. More strategy and adjustments. Depth is less relevant. Centers are less relevant (unless you have an elite one). Playoffs are More about BBIQ and experience. It's why a young team (no matter how talented) almost never wins a title.

After watching every game of their series, Memphis absolutely looks like a regular season team. Now, it could have just been the matchup against minn but this is what I saw from Memphis

- very young and very inexperienced. And very poor basketball IQ. Constantly missing assignments, taking bad shots, etc
- adams (their best offensive rebounder) was played off the court
- Ja looks hurt. He shot sub 40% for the series. No way that can happen against the dubs
- Ja is a complete liability on defense. He got hunted relentlessly
-JJJ can't stay on the court, especially if adams isn't playing besides him
- Memphis has zero strategy and made zero adjustments. Say what you want about Denver, but they made numerous game by game adjustments
- Memphis was shockingly bad at guarding the PnR, especially considering they switch everything. But again, a lot of that has to do with hunting Ja
- Memphis is even worse in the half court then a thought. They have one shooter (bane) but if you put him on an island, I don't see how Memphis scores in the half court unless Ja plays significantly better. They have no other shooters or creators. Zero.
- the only player I saw who outperformed his reg season performance was Brandon Clarke. He's an absolute beast and probably the only reason Memphis was able to squeak out that series. Bane and jones were also as advertised.
- minn thoroughly outplayed Memphis the majority of the series. It basically took a historic collapse (no team has ever lost three double digit leads in the 4thq in the playoffs ever) for Memphis to survive

I just don't think Memphis has the experience or the mental fortitude to beat the most playoff tested team left in the field. The playoffs is a grind. You have to focus every possession. Memphis doesn't seem at all prepared for that. And their coach doesn't seem at all prepared to go against a very savvy GS coaching staff who know all the tricks.

I mean, yes the warriors will be outrebounded and at times their turnovers are going to drive Kerr crazy. This is just a given. But for the warriors to lose a 7 game series, they will have to play very poorly. They will have to beat themselves. And I just don't see the core 3 letting that happen.

I could be wrong though. I'm curious what you saw from watching the MInn series that makes you think Memphis is such a poor matchup for the warriors.
BearSD
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Memphis has guards that are tough to defend, and the Warriors' guards other than GP2 are the weak link in their defense.

Memphis rebounds well, the Warriors not so much. Giving up only a few offensive rebounds per game rather than a ton of them ought to be a goal for the W's in this series.

Memphis showed composure and closed games very well against Minnesota. I don't think the Warriors can rely too much on the Grizzlies' lack of playoff experience.

Can the Warriors overcome these things if they play at a high level? Yes. But the Warriors don't have to be absolutely terrible to lose this series, and they need to be pretty good to win it.
HoopDreams
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Tough matchup

I watched 4th Q and Ja impressed me with how he could draw 2-3 defenders and still get into the paint and score, get fouled or pass to an open shooter

He also simply passed to their long big which will be tough for Green to defend

I guess they also have home court advantage

BearSD said:

Memphis has guards that are tough to defend, and the Warriors' guards other than GP2 are the weak link in their defense.

Memphis rebounds well, the Warriors not so much. Giving up only a few offensive rebounds per game rather than a ton of them ought to be a goal for the W's in this series.

Memphis showed composure and closed games very well against Minnesota. I don't think the Warriors can rely too much on the Grizzlies' lack of playoff experience.

Can the Warriors overcome these things if they play at a high level? Yes. But the Warriors don't have to be absolutely terrible to lose this series, and they need to be pretty good to win it.
ducky23
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BearSD said:

Memphis has guards that are tough to defend, and the Warriors' guards other than GP2 are the weak link in their defense.

Memphis rebounds well, the Warriors not so much. Giving up only a few offensive rebounds per game rather than a ton of them ought to be a goal for the W's in this series.

Memphis showed composure and closed games very well against Minnesota. I don't think the Warriors can rely too much on the Grizzlies' lack of playoff experience.

Can the Warriors overcome these things if they play at a high level? Yes. But the Warriors don't have to be absolutely terrible to lose this series, and they need to be pretty good to win it.


Ok let's go thru this one by one

- Memphis has difficult guards to defend.

Sure morant/bane/brooks is pretty good. But are they better than cp3/booker? Doncic/Brunson? No. Of the guards left in the western conference, Memphis has the worst

I'll say it again, morant has not looked good these playoffs unless you're just watching the 4th quarter. Both him and Dillon are shooting under 40%. Bane is a deadeye shooter but he cannot create by himself. Hes a perfect matchup for klay who has trouble with quicker guards but he has the length to challenge shots. Also I'm not sure why you think the warriors perimeter defense is such a weakness. What are you basing this on? Their perimeter defense against the nuggets was fine. Denver stinks you say? Fine. With draymond, the warriors had the best defense in the nba based on defensive efficiency during the regular season. And it wasn't particularly close. Before draymond got hurt, their defensive efficiency numbers were bordering on historically good. If the dubs have a weakness defensively it's against elite bigs.

Against Denver, the dubs had to put all of their focus on jokic because he's so dominant. But against Memphis, you can sag off of JJJ and Clarke and to a lesser extent brooks. Morant is going to be playing 5 on 4 on offense a lot.

- warriors are a poor rebounding team.

Sure, they got outrebounded by Denver but Denver was making the choice to go big and willing to sacrifice on the defensive end. Memphis probably won't be making the same choice. I don't see adams playing significant mins and he's their best offensive rebounder. Plus the warriors during the regular season were the 10th best rebounding team (based on rebounding rate). Not great but not awful. In the playoffs, the warriors rebounding rate was actually higher than Memphis because Memphis got crushed on the offensive boards as well.

- Memphis showed composure

Memphis showed composure in the 4th quarter. They showed zero composure or focus or mental toughness in the first three quarters. Do you think that will cut it against the warriors? Memphis has yet to show they can lock down and focus for the entire game.

Look, I'm not trying to be a warriors Homer. When it comes to the suns or Boston, my opinion on how the warriors match up is much different. But this idea that Memphis is this awful matchup for the warriors seems flawed when you actually look at it closer.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Memphis. But you watch. The games that the dubs lose in this series will be when they play undisciplined. If the warriors even play a B+ game, I don't see how Memphis can beat them.

bearister
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I think the disciplined, ball sharing offense played by the Warriors gives them a real advantage in the Playoffs aka Crunch Time.

The chronic over dribbling and one on one isolation plays favored by many teams makes them more vulnerable to choking at Crunch Time.

I think the combination of skilled players and discipline is lethal. When the "free for all style" is clicking, a team playing that style can boat race you….but when it isn't clicking, it's just ugly.
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DiabloWags
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THIS CLOWN IS INCOMPETENT!


BearSD
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Clarke laid on the ground for a couple of minutes to induce the officials to make that bad Flagrant 2 call. Every soccer flopper would be proud of him.

bearister
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I wonder if Ja Morant's herky jerky drive to the hoop style where the ball makes several angle and level changes before release increases the number of defensive players that have an opportunity to get a hand on the ball.

My guess is Kerr has studied that move plenty.
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HoopDreams
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bearister said:

I wonder if Ja Morant's herky jerky drive to the hoop style where the ball makes several angle and level changes before release increases the number of defensive players that have an opportunity to get a hand on the ball.

My guess is Kerr has studied that move plenty.
when you defend a player like that, you do start to figure it out some, but NBA players have so many counters, and counters to counters that a player like Morant just hits you with another move ... and then of course he also passes the ball so well that he's just an overall tough assignment

bearister
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His high speed, high flying and often off balance style also increases his odds of serious injury. He dodged a bullet today.

*in other news, Gary Payton, Jr. has a 38.5" vertical
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DiabloWags
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Mr. PAYTON POSTERIZING BAIN.
 
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