ducky23 said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Quote:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

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There will be a decent amount of conf champions (from mid majors) in the top 80. But point taken, you probably need to be at least top 85-90 to have a shot at the NIT.

Assuming cal runs the table (and loses Pac-12 title game), I think they get there.

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Quote:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

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calumnus said:

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ducky23 said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Quote:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

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There will be a decent amount of conf champions (from mid majors) in the top 80. But point taken, you probably need to be at least top 85-90 to have a shot at the NIT.

Assuming cal runs the table (and loses Pac-12 title game), I think they get there.

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The NCAA is using NET. The NIT takes the two teams with the highest NET in the conference not Invited to the NCAA. If we win out (beat Colorado and Utah) we likely burst their bubbles. We burst a few more on our way to the Conference finals. 18-16 with a NET still weighed down by our bad losses is not going to make the NCAAs. It is likely only Arizona and WSU, maybe Oregon in the NCAAs then. That leaves Colorado, Utah, UW, UCLA and USC as teams we need to jump in NET (or at least 4 out of 5) to get into the NIT. I don't think that is mathematically possible. But sure, root for Arizona, WSU, Stanford, ASU and OSU to win out (as much as possible) too, because that will help.

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HoopDreams said:

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Lunardi says AZ and WSU locks
UT and CO on the bubble

Duck out. We sank them

calumnus said:

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ducky23 said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

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There will be a decent amount of conf champions (from mid majors) in the top 80. But point taken, you probably need to be at least top 85-90 to have a shot at the NIT.

Assuming cal runs the table (and loses Pac-12 title game), I think they get there.

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The NCAA is using NET. The NIT takes the two teams with the highest NET in the conference not Invited to the NCAA. If we win out (beat Colorado and Utah) we likely burst their bubbles. We burst a few more on our way to the Conference finals. 18-16 with a NET still weighed down by our bad losses is not going to make the NCAAs. It is likely only Arizona and WSU, maybe Oregon in the NCAAs then. That leaves Colorado, Utah, UW, UCLA and USC as teams we need to jump in NET (or at least 4 out of 5) to get into the NIT. I don't think that is mathematically possible. But sure, root for Arizona, WSU, Stanford, ASU and OSU to win out (as much as possible) too, because that will help.

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calumnus said:

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ducky23 said:

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BearSD said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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calumnus said:

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Cal88 said:

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ducky23 said:

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calumnus said:

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BeachedBear said:

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Quote:

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Here is the PAC-12 in the PER

1. Arizona #4
2. Colorado #34
3. WSU #36
4. Utah #54
5. Oregon #63
6. UW #70
7. USC #104
8. UCLA #112
9. Cal #115
10. Stanford #116
11. ASU #126
12. OSU #167

If we win out we are likely the 4 seed and then lose the Final we will be 18-16 and our PER will still be far greater than #60. All we will have done is knock Colorado and Utah out with only Arizona and WSU going. Maybe Oregon if they win out.

Our PER is simple too high (low?) with too many ahead of us for us to get into the NCAA as an at-large or even into the NIT.

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Agreed. The NCAA takes about 48 of the highest-rated teams (plus about 20 conference champs of low-major leagues).

The NIT takes 32 teams not in the "best 48", meaning that while the NIT committee might select one or two outliers, an NIT team would otherwise need to be in the top 80 in the NIT committee's ranking (which is likely close to but not identical to NET).

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There will be a decent amount of conf champions (from mid majors) in the top 80. But point taken, you probably need to be at least top 85-90 to have a shot at the NIT.

Assuming cal runs the table (and loses Pac-12 title game), I think they get there.

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The NCAA is using NET. The NIT takes the two teams with the highest NET in the conference not Invited to the NCAA. If we win out (beat Colorado and Utah) we likely burst their bubbles. We burst a few more on our way to the Conference finals. 18-16 with a NET still weighed down by our bad losses is not going to make the NCAAs. It is likely only Arizona and WSU, maybe Oregon in the NCAAs then. That leaves Colorado, Utah, UW, UCLA and USC as teams we need to jump in NET (or at least 4 out of 5) to get into the NIT. I don't think that is mathematically possible. But sure, root for Arizona, WSU, Stanford, ASU and OSU to win out (as much as possible) too, because that will help.

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blungld said:

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Are injuries, improvement, and record over the last 10 games no longer a selection criteria? We had a horrible start to the season but we were also missing many players and the team has shown huge improvement. I know it's all a number's game, but if they made the conference final and go 2-1 or 3-0 in the last three games, I personally think they would "deserve" to be in the tournament. That loss to Bruins really hurts. Shoulda had that one.

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Big Dog said:

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blungld said:

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Are injuries, improvement, and record over the last 10 games no longer a selection criteria? We had a horrible start to the season but we were also missing many players and the team has shown huge improvement. I know it's all a number's game, but if they made the conference final and go 2-1 or 3-0 in the last three games, I personally think they would "deserve" to be in the tournament. That loss to Bruins really hurts. Shoulda had that one.

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We have 3 Quad4 losses. That is really hard to overcome. (our backups shoudl have beaten Pacific at HOME)


https://bballnet.com/teams/california

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Cal88 said:

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Big Dog said:

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blungld said:

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Are injuries, improvement, and record over the last 10 games no longer a selection criteria? We had a horrible start to the season but we were also missing many players and the team has shown huge improvement. I know it's all a number's game, but if they made the conference final and go 2-1 or 3-0 in the last three games, I personally think they would "deserve" to be in the tournament. That loss to Bruins really hurts. Shoulda had that one.

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We have 3 Quad4 losses. That is really hard to overcome. (our backups shoudl have beaten Pacific at HOME)


https://bballnet.com/teams/california

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Very early in the season, not the same team now. This is a factor, though I am not sure how much it will be taken into account.

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blungld said:

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Are injuries, improvement, and record over the last 10 games no longer a selection criteria? We had a horrible start to the season but we were also missing many players and the team has shown huge improvement. I know it's all a number's game, but if they made the conference final and go 2-1 or 3-0 in the last three games, I personally think they would "deserve" to be in the tournament. That loss to Bruins really hurts. Shoulda had that one.

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bearister said:

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A lot of vacationing seniors to altitude are unaware of this:

Seniors and High Altitude - Altitude Control Technology


https://altitudecontrol.com/seniors-and-high-altitude/

" Hypoxia is the result of blood being unable to carry enough oxygen to the tissues and can lead to hypoxemia, a dangerously low amount of oxygen in the blood. Hypoxia can begin to set in at around 6,000 feet and can lead to an array of symptoms including headaches, shortness of breath, nausea, and increased heart rates.
…. Reduced oxygen in the blood through high altitudes can exacerbate symptoms (of pulmonary hypertension).

*Tahoe is around 6200 feet. Yosemite: Half Dome 8800 feet; Glacier Point 7200 feet.

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ducky23 said:

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BeachedBear said:

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A lot of rationalization for what ifs and Cal making it to NIT or NCAA. While they are all very valid, that is not how the process works.

NCAA has a criteria - Cal will need win P12 tourney. Hard Stop.

NIT has a criteria - EXTREMELY UNLIKEY and would require many, many things OUTSIDE of Cal winning out. And Can winning out over CU and Utah, likely makes NIT less likely.

Regardless of all that - it is much more fun to Root for Cal to win EVERY time. I'm getting that feeling I had when JKidd, Lamond and Bozeman made the run to the sweet 16.

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I'm still not sure why everyone is so sure that the NIT is out of the question (assuming Cal wins out - wins 1-2 more in pac12 tourney).

Here is the NIT selection process:

"The NIT will guarantee two teams (based on the NET rankings) from each of six conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern). The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men's basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of win-loss record, will be selected. Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT.

Once the 12 automatic qualifying schools have been selected, the NIT Committee will select the 20 best teams available to complete the tournament's 32-team field."

So even if Cal is not in the top 2, they could still be one of the 20 at large teams.

Here is my rudimentary math. NCAA will take roughly the top 50 NET (may take a few top 100, may take a few outside of top 100 to round out the field of 68). NIT takes 12 automatic. That's 62+ teams (NCAA tourney teams & NIT automatic qualifiers). Then there's another 20 at large. So if Cal can get anywhere in the top 90 or so, they could have a pretty good case, especially with their late run.

With presumed wins away at CO, Utah, Stanford, and 1-2 quality more wins in the pac12 tourney, I think they easily get in the top 90 NET.

I could be wrong, so let me know where I may have made a mistake.

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ducky23 said:

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BeachedBear said:

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A lot of rationalization for what ifs and Cal making it to NIT or NCAA. While they are all very valid, that is not how the process works.

NCAA has a criteria - Cal will need win P12 tourney. Hard Stop.

NIT has a criteria - EXTREMELY UNLIKEY and would require many, many things OUTSIDE of Cal winning out. And Can winning out over CU and Utah, likely makes NIT less likely.

Regardless of all that - it is much more fun to Root for Cal to win EVERY time. I'm getting that feeling I had when JKidd, Lamond and Bozeman made the run to the sweet 16.

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I'm still not sure why everyone is so sure that the NIT is out of the question (assuming Cal wins out - wins 1-2 more in pac12 tourney).

Here is the NIT selection process:

"The NIT will guarantee two teams (based on the NET rankings) from each of six conferences (Atlantic Coast, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and Southeastern). The top two teams in the NET rankings not qualifying for the NCAA men's basketball tournament from each conference, regardless of win-loss record, will be selected. Additionally, the 12 teams automatically selected will be guaranteed the opportunity to host a game in the first round of the NIT.

Once the 12 automatic qualifying schools have been selected, the NIT Committee will select the 20 best teams available to complete the tournament's 32-team field."

So even if Cal is not in the top 2, they could still be one of the 20 at large teams.

Here is my rudimentary math. NCAA will take roughly the top 50 NET (may take a few top 100, may take a few outside of top 100 to round out the field of 68). NIT takes 12 automatic. That's 62+ teams (NCAA tourney teams & NIT automatic qualifiers). Then there's another 20 at large. So if Cal can get anywhere in the top 90 or so, they could have a pretty good case, especially with their late run.

With presumed wins away at CO, Utah, Stanford, and 1-2 quality more wins in the pac12 tourney, I think they easily get in the top 90 NET.

I could be wrong, so let me know where I may have made a mistake.

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ducky23 said:

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.....

With presumed wins away at CO, Utah, Stanford, and 1-2 quality more wins in the pac12 tourney, I think they easily get in the top 90 NET.

I could be wrong, so let me know where I may have made a mistake.

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BeachedBear said:

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ducky23 said:

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.....

With presumed wins away at CO, Utah, Stanford, and 1-2 quality more wins in the pac12 tourney, I think they easily get in the top 90 NET.

I could be wrong, so let me know where I may have made a mistake.

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Not out of the question, but your jump to Top 90 (from 115 AND whether top 90 is good enough) is going to be MUCH harder than just 3 road wins and 1 or 2 P12 wins. It depends MUCH MUCH more on how those teams with a better NET than Cal does.

So we need to run the table, AND about 5 or 6 teams (currently rated higher than Cal) need to drop a deuce. And a team dropping from 56 to 84 doesn't help Cal at all,. We need 25 teams currently rated better than 90 to drop below Cal.

My guess (just a guess) is that your 90 threshold is probably 10 or 15 points too high.

BTW - I hope my math is wrong, but I did get a math degree from Cal.....

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stu said:

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When did we beat Arizona?

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HoopDreams said:

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we have beat every team in the conference, except Utah who we haven't played yet

that's major

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Cal88 said:

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Also the toughest game of the 3 remaining, they looked very good against Utah.

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Chabbear said:

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I like being in 6th place. Won't meet Arizona until finals.

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Gobears49 said:

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Chabbear said:

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I like being in 6th place. Won't meet Arizona until finals.

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I agree!!! Does everybody agree that we need to finish at least second in the tourney to make the Dance. But how does it work if for the year we are fourth and below but for the year we are fourth of so. Who goes to the Dance, Cal, the second place finisher in the tournament or the team that finished second for the league season?

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Gobears49 said:

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Chabbear said:

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I like being in 6th place. Won't meet Arizona until finals.

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I agree!!! Does everybody agree that we need to finish at least second in the tourney to make the Dance. But how does it work if for the year we are fourth and below but for the year we are fourth of so. Who goes to the Dance, Cal, the second place finisher in the tournament or the team that finished second for the league season?

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Big C said:

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Gobears49 said:

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Chabbear said:

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I like being in 6th place. Won't meet Arizona until finals.

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I agree!!! Does everybody agree that we need to finish at least second in the tourney to make the Dance. But how does it work if for the year we are fourth and below but for the year we are fourth of so. Who goes to the Dance, Cal, the second place finisher in the tournament or the team that finished second for the league season?

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On how many different threads do you need to hear this: To go to March Madness, we will need to win the conference tournament. Highly unlikely that we can win three games in three days. Virtually impossible to win four in four. Okay to dream, but...

What's frustrating is that this team is much better now than when we lost to UOP, et. al.

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