SFCityBear said:
01Bear said:
barsad said:
If I was playing Uno with kids, I would keep only my Celestine card and throw down three or four Wild portal Draw 4 cards. Clean house, hope that Wilkinson's ready, and start fresh.
Nothing against Celestine, but IMHO, Brown's the one with the higher ceiling; it'd be nuts to let him go. If Madsen develops him, Brown can probably be a first round pick in his junior year (if not next year).
What did you see in Brown that makes you rate him so high as a first round pick in any round? He looks frightened out there, even a bit scared. He does not drive particularly well. My goodness, Cone was such a liability out there on defense, why didn't Madsen play Brown more if he is so good? He is a freshman, and he will get better. But he needs to bulk up and get stronger, and that may affect his shooting touch.
Celestine and Brown play different positions. I don't know who is the better shot, but Celestine has been doing it for 3 seasons at Cal, with Brown's sample being only one season, playing few minutes, and none as a regular starter. Celestine is already a good defender. He can drive, he can shoot both mid-range and 3 pointers. I can't see any reason not to keep Celestine over Brown. I just need to see a lot more minutes of Brown to evaluate him. Right now, he just doesn't seem to be very dangerous. The only reason right now that I'd keep a Brown over Celestine is that Celestine has a history of serious injury.
I am also not interested in taking players who will be NBA picks in early drafts. I just don't care about players who will leave early. I want only 4 year players, or players who want to be here, not just showcase their talents to scouts who might draft them, and then blow town for the big bucks.
I agree that Brown was a little overmatched mentally this past season. The game needs to slow down for him. The best way to do that is to get more live game time. But that's not why I think he's got the higher ceiling.
Celestine's shown that his ceiling is a D-1 (even P5/4) college starter. That's honestly pretty darn good for anyone! But I'm sure he has NBA aspirations. Unfortunately, (from what I've seen of him) he lacks the explosiveness and elite athleticism usually needed in today's game.*
Keep in mind, neither Russell Westbrook nor Zach Lavine really lit up the stat sheet when they were in college. But both were lottery picks because NBA teams saw them as having high ceilings due to their athleticism and explosiveness. Rodney Brown strikes me as that kind of player. (Obviously, I'm not saying Rodney will prove to be a NBA All-Star or MVP candidate**; that's up to how he develops in the Association.)
Brown's still young, but he has shown flashes of his explosiveness and elite athleticism. With good coaching and bodybuilding, he should be able to make it as a NBA player. Of course, before he gets that far, he needs to adapt to the college game, first. Again, that takes playing time in actual games.
Once Brown gets used to playing at the college level, he'll likely be able to put up (at a minimum) solid numbers. With his length, explosiveness, and athleticism, NBA teams will be more inclined to scout him. If he puts up numbers comparable to Jaylon Tyson's this year (as I believe he'll be able to do) he'll be a first round pick and possibly even a lottery pick.
I also get what you're saying about wanting guys who will stay for four years. That would be ideal for any system. However, college basketball is now a big business. The best players (read most NBA ready) want to go to teams that can showcase them and win 30 games a season while doing so. Sure, there are plenty of teams that win the NCAA with teams full of seniors, but most Final Four teams now have at least one lottery pick. Lottery pick guys tend to be underclassmen with high ceilings***.
Because I want to see Cal win the NCAA Tournament, I want to see Cal bring in not just four-year players but also NBA lottery pick guys, including one-and-dones like Jaylen Brown. Of course, a team with all one-and-dones is unlikely to win the NCAA tourney. However, a team with multiple upperclassmen leaders (even if they're role players) and one or two one-and-done guys who can take over games when needed can win it all.
*Of course there are exceptions. Luca Doncic and Nikola Jokic lack explosiveness and elite athleticism, as well and they're perpetual MVP candidates. But what they lack in athleticism and explosiveness, they make up for with elite basketball IQ and playmaking ability. This isn't a knock on Jalen, but he doesn't have that same level of basketball IQ and playmaking ability. About the only Cal player who had that combination of high basketball IQ and playmaking in my lifetime is Jason Kidd. So that's a really high standard, which few can meet.
**Though, I did predict Jaylen Brown would be a NBA All-Star as he wrapped up his line year at Cal. That was because Jaylen not only had elite athleticism and explosiveness, but he was also dedicated to learning and improving himself. His drive was what made me believe he would excel. He's proved me right. How I wish he were a Laker instead of a Celtic!
***The era of senior lottery picks ended in the 90s or early 00s, IIRC. Sure Jimmer Fredette was a lottery pick after his senior year, but he was drafted way too high. Team executives learned from that mistake and now tend to stay away from four-year players in the lottery with the obvious exception of Damian Lillard.