MoragaBear;842326266 said:

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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11108483/golden-state-warriors-add-klay-thompson-possible-kevin-love-trade

With the Warriors now willing to add Thompson to the package, should the Warriors make the trade suggested in the story without a sign and trade deal? I say no. You can't give up Lee and Thompson to rent Love for a year and hope he resigns with you.

If they can do a sign and trade, I'd definitely do the proposed Love, Martin, Barea and 13th pick for Lee and Thompson if I'm the Warriors but not without the contract security.

Thoughts?

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I think I'm one of the few NBA fans who thinks Love's game is overrated. He's never made the playoffs, even though he's been the best player on his team for quite a few years now. Yes, the West is loaded. But while his offensive game is great, Love's defense is atrocious, and I think it really hampers his team's chances of winning consistently. He's sort of David Lee with an outside shot. I think the deal I've read (Lee and Klay for Love and Kevin Martin) would be a huge step back for the Warriors, and they would be VERY thin on the perimeter.

However, if you value Love quite a bit - I MIGHT do this deal even without Love agreeing to an extension. Klay will be a free agent next year, and he will be reportedly looking for a max deal. I like Klay a lot as a player, but he should not be a max level guy. I'm sure someone will pay it, but I think you're overpaying relative to his talent. Plus, Golden State is already near the luxury tax, and paying Klay a max deal will push them way over, meaning they'd either have to pay a massive luxury tax bill or dump other players to make room.

Tough call.

Not a tough call at all, IMO. Love is the best offensive PF in the game and is coming into his prime. His defense isn't great, but he should do okay with a guy like Bogut next to him. Thompson and Lee won't get you to where you want to go. Love actually named GS a place he desired to go to, so re-signing him shouldn't be a problem. Love and Curry were 4th and 5th in the NBA in Win Shares per 48 minutes after Durant, Paul, and James. If you can get a Kevin Love, you've got to do it.

My take is if the Warriors had a center, who was healthy and played more than 40 games, they would have went a lot farther than they did this year. Getting Love doesn't solve that problem. Kind of agree with poop, Love is like Lee only with an outside shot. I don't like the idea of giving up a 1st to go along with the players either, just think they may be overpaying.

Go Bears!

Do it for love, martin, barrea and the 13th. chances are you can sign love to an extension.

with the 13th pick you can pick up a young shooting guard that can serve as klay's eventual replacement long term. martin is a decent replacement short term.

in barrea you get a backup point guard that at least gives them some depth if they arent able to sign a decent one.

to me its better to pay love than pay overpay for klay.

strategically i think it will help the warriors basketballwise. love would pull a big man away from the basket and really open up the driving lanes for curry, iggy, and barnes. Martin can also do some things going to the hoop as well. he spreads the floor and puts more pressure on the defense than klay because of who has to guard him. the trade would really help barnes and iguodala

MoragaBear;842326286 said:

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Bogut started 68 games this year. And it was the Warriors who would get the 13th overall pick in this year's draft.

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Yeah, it was just our bad luck that the games Bogut missed were in the playoffs.

I like the deal IF Love actually stays for more than one year. An elite big man like him is worth more than an elite shooter (especially since the Warriors already have one of those). I think he's certainly a more valuable player than Klay Thompson, and if he's around he makes David Lee redundant anyway.

As for the perimeter, Draymond Green already had kind of a breakout last year, and you just pray that Harrison Barnes puts it together when he actually gets to play with the first team more often (I think he looked so bad in part because Mark Jackson kept throwing him out there with the bench guys).

I agree with sycasey. of all the positions that can be filled fairly easily and often, its the shooting guard. Given all the other pieces - and how many NBA teams have studs @ 1-5? - I think the trade makes sense and that Love would sign if he gets to the playoffs which is a virtual certainty with the W's roster....

petalumabear;842326316 said:

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I agree with sycasey. of all the positions that can be filled fairly easily and often, its the shooting guard. Given all the other pieces - and how many NBA teams have studs @ 1-5? - I think the trade makes sense and that Love would sign if he gets to the playoffs which is a virtual certainty with the W's roster....

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Eh? There are not many very good 2-guards left in the NBA.

KT+DL for KL = Big mistake by the W's.

+1. I don't think love was the missing piece this year. I think it was iggy didn't n the reserves didn't contribute as expected...n bogut missing playoffs didn't help. I like curry n klay n lee at he 1, 2, n 4. They needed the iggy of 3 years ago n Festus to be healthy. I'm just glad they aren't throwing barnes and/or green into the deal with klay. I'd luv it if the wolves took iggy for love!

tsubamoto2001;842326274 said:

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Not a tough call at all, IMO. Love is the best offensive PF in the game and is coming into his prime. His defense isn't great, but he should do okay with a guy like Bogut next to him. Thompson and Lee won't get you to where you want to go. Love actually named GS a place he desired to go to, so re-signing him shouldn't be a problem. Love and Curry were 4th and 5th in the NBA in Win Shares per 48 minutes after Durant, Paul, and James. If you can get a Kevin Love, you've got to do it.

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+1

MoragaBear;842326266 said:

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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11108483/golden-state-warriors-add-klay-thompson-possible-kevin-love-trade

With the Warriors now willing to add Thompson to the package, should the Warriors make the trade suggested in the story without a sign and trade deal? I say no. You can't give up Lee and Thompson to rent Love for a year and hope he resigns with you.

If they can do a sign and trade, I'd definitely do the proposed Love, Martin, Barea and 13th pick for Lee and Thompson if I'm the Warriors but not without the contract security.

Thoughts?

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If we're talking the players you list, MB, I would do the trade in a heartbeat !! Love is a better rebounder than Lee. He's THE premier outlet passer in the NBA and he extends defensive 4's out to the 3-pt line. Their defensive shortcomings are a wash, but Love has never had a rim-protector like Bogut to play beside.

Lee's Stats

Love's Stats

I love Klay's defense, but he gets in more foul trouble than K-Mart. He's a better 3-pt shooter, but his career average PPG is below Kevin's 16.0 to 17.9. When I look at a scorer, I use pts/shot to determine their efficiency. K-Mart has Klay there, too ... 1.43 to 1.17. He also shoots 3X as many FT's per game and for a higher % than Klay ... .869 to .827 and, Martin is a slightly better rebounder ... 3.3 to 3.1/game.

If Barea is a throw-in, he makes up for the loss of Blake to UFA. Getting a #13 pick is just pure gravy !!! The Dubs get BETTER on defense because Draymond slides in at SF and moves Iggy to off guard. I think that makes for a great defense and they will make up for "starter points" with better ball movement.

The second unit would be: Barea (PG); K Mart (2); Barnes (3); Speights (4); and, Ezili (5) ... not too shabby !! I would also like to see them bring back Jermaine O'Neal as the 3rd post guy. He's better than Kuzmic.

I don't think signing Love will be a problem. Kerr is a player's guy and I think the ball will be moving a lot more, as it does with the Spurs. Love wants to win and this talent really complements the guys on the Warrior's roster.

grandmastapoop;842326273 said:

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I think I'm one of the few NBA fans who thinks Love's game is overrated. He's never made the playoffs, even though he's been the best player on his team for quite a few years now. Yes, the West is loaded. But while his offensive game is great, Love's defense is atrocious, and I think it really hampers his team's chances of winning consistently. He's sort of David Lee with an outside shot. I think the deal I've read (Lee and Klay for Love and Kevin Martin) would be a huge step back for the Warriors, and they would be VERY thin on the perimeter.

However, if you value Love quite a bit - I MIGHT do this deal even without Love agreeing to an extension. Klay will be a free agent next year, and he will be reportedly looking for a max deal. I like Klay a lot as a player, but he should not be a max level guy. I'm sure someone will pay it, but I think you're overpaying relative to his talent. Plus, Golden State is already near the luxury tax, and paying Klay a max deal will push them way over, meaning they'd either have to pay a massive luxury tax bill or dump other players to make room.

Tough call.

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I guess I'm one of the few warriors fans who thinks Klay is way overrated. I will agree that he is a plus defender. Maybe even more than that. But he's vastly overrated as an offensive player. He still has trouble driving to the hoop and his three point shooting numbers are inflated since he gets to play next to the greatest shooter possibly in the history of the game. So yeah, he's going to get maybe a few open looks.

And the two big points have already been made. 1. He's not worth a max deal. You'd much rather have love. And 2. Shooting guards are easier to find then elite stretch big men. You give an above average sg the amount of open looks that Klay gets and you'll see what will happen.

And love is a much better rebounder than lee. And even if he is just lee with a better outside shot, that's the whole freaking point. Lee does not work in this offense since you have to play 2 in. With curry, you'd much rather space the floor with a stretch 4. I promise you, if you think the spurs offense looked pretty, wait till you see next year if love and curry are put on the sake floor with kerr running the show. Lastly, lee was usually the pick and roll guy with curry, which led to mixed results since lee could only roll to the hoop. With love, when he sets a pick for curry, you can't just double Steph and leave love open for a three. That's why you need a stretch 4 to work with curry.

This trade is a no brainer. I'd do it even without the draft pick.

Ukrainian;842326418 said:

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If we're talking the players you list, MB, I would do the trade in a heartbeat !! Love is a better rebounder than Lee. He's THE premier outlet passer in the NBA and he extends defensive 4's out to the 3-pt line. Their defensive shortcomings are a wash, but Love has never had a rim-protector like Bogut to play beside.

Lee's Stats

Love's Stats

I love Klay's defense, but he gets in more foul trouble than K-Mart. He's a better 3-pt shooter, but his career average PPG is below Kevin's 16.0 to 17.9. When I look at a scorer, I use pts/shot to determine their efficiency. K-Mart has Klay there, too ... 1.43 to 1.17. He also shoots 3X as many FT's per game and for a higher % than Klay ... .869 to .827 and, Martin is a slightly better rebounder ... 3.3 to 3.1/game.

If Barea is a throw-in, he makes up for the loss of Blake to UFA. Getting a #13 pick is just pure gravy !!! The Dubs get BETTER on defense because Draymond slides in at SF and moves Iggy to off guard. I think that makes for a great defense and they will make up for "starter points" with better ball movement.

The second unit would be: Barea (PG); K Mart (2); Harnes (3); Speights (4); and, Ezili (5) ... not too shabby !! I would also like to see them bring back Jermaine O'Neal as the 3rd post guy. He's better than Kuzmic.

I don't think signing Love will be a problem. Kerr is a player's guy and I think the ball will be moving a lot more, as it does with the Spurs. Love wants to win and this talent really complements the guys on the Warrior's roster.

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I haven't seen anyone report barrea, Kmart, love and draft pick. That would be highway robbery. Kmart would be an elite 6th man and is a much better player than Crawford. Barrea, assuming he's a good locker room fit, is better than Blake. Hell i would do the trade if it was just barrea and love. I'd even throw in a future 1st rounder.

The team as constructed has no chance for a title. None. I don't think anyone disputes that.

But let's say Barnes lives up to his huge potential and becomes a mini k Leonard. Then you have Bogut, love, iggy, Barnes and Steph. With kmart and green off the bench. That's a title contender.

Again this is a no brainer. Losing lee is actually beneficial to the team since his contract blows nuts and green is probably a better fit for this team than lee anyways. So lee is redundant even if you don't get love.

So losing lee is whatever. So you're basically trading Klay for love and possibly kmart and a pick? Are you f'ing kidding me??? You add in the fact that Klay becomes a max player next year and I don't see how anyone can be against this deal. You wanna pay love a max deal or Klay?

Lacob better back up all of his talk and make this happen.

ducky23;842326442 said:

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I haven't seen anyone report barrea, Kmart, love and draft pick. That would be highway robbery. Kmart would be an elite 6th man and is a much better player than Crawford. Barrea, assuming he's a good locker room fit, is better than Blake. Hell i would do the trade if it was just barrea and love. I'd even throw in a future 1st rounder.

The team as constructed has no chance for a title. None. I don't think anyone disputes that.

But let's say Barnes lives up to his huge potential and becomes a mini k Leonard. Then you have Bogut, love, iggy, Barnes and Steph. With kmart and green off the bench. That's a title contender.

Again this is a no brainer. Losing lee is actually beneficial to the team since his contract blows nuts and green is probably a better fit for this team than lee anyways. So lee is redundant even if you don't get love.

So losing lee is whatever. So you're basically trading Klay for love and possibly kmart and a pick? Are you f'ing kidding me??? You add in the fact that Klay becomes a max player next year and I don't see how anyone can be against this deal. You wanna pay love a max deal or Klay?

Lacob better back up all of his talk and make this happen.

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I will defer to those who have followed Love's NBA career closer that I have, but guys who run up big numbers on losing teams always scare me.

ducky23;842326442 said:

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I haven't seen anyone report barrea, Kmart, love and draft pick. That would be highway robbery. Kmart would be an elite 6th man and is a much better player than Crawford. Barrea, assuming he's a good locker room fit, is better than Blake. Hell i would do the trade if it was just barrea and love. I'd even throw in a future 1st rounder.

The team as constructed has no chance for a title. None. I don't think anyone disputes that.

But let's say Barnes lives up to his huge potential and becomes a mini k Leonard. Then you have Bogut, love, iggy, Barnes and Steph. With kmart and green off the bench. That's a title contender.

Again this is a no brainer. Losing lee is actually beneficial to the team since his contract blows nuts and green is probably a better fit for this team than lee anyways. So lee is redundant even if you don't get love.

So losing lee is whatever. So you're basically trading Klay for love and possibly kmart and a pick? Are you f'ing kidding me??? You add in the fact that Klay becomes a max player next year and I don't see how anyone can be against this deal. You wanna pay love a max deal or Klay?

Lacob better back up all of his talk and make this happen.

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chris broussard reported the love, kmart, barrea and pick package for klay and lee

Big C_Cal;842326445 said:

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I will defer to those who have followed Love's NBA career closer that I have, but guys who run up big numbers on losing teams always scare me.

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It scares me if they were only putting up numbers because they were taking a lot of shots and handling the ball all the time, but were not very efficient (read: Monta Ellis). Love is actually an efficient offensive player. His percentages are solid. I don't think you can blame him for the T-Wolves being mediocre.

The knock on him is defense, but he can't be any worse than David Lee in this department.

sycasey;842326449 said:

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It scares me if they were only putting up numbers because they were taking a lot of shots and handling the ball all the time, but were not very efficient (read: Monta Ellis). Love is actually an efficient offensive player. His percentages are solid. I don't think you can blame him for the T-Wolves being mediocre.

The knock on him is defense, but he can't be any worse than David Lee in this department.

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Exactly. With today's advanced metrics, numbers don't lie (as much).

Love has been in the top 5 in efficiency rating in 4 of the past 5 years. There is very little doubt he's an elite offensive player.

The particulars of the deal seem to have changed a bit with the W's giving up a first rounder instead of getting one. No mention of Barea, but he might be a throw-in.

Here's one analyst's view of the potential trade:

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/69068/to-make-splash-dubs-must-break-up-duo

Klay+lee+pick is still highway robbery for love because of the need to overpay Klay soon. Taking back Martin would actually be a win-win because of the warriors' cap situation. Love and curry could be a force for a decade and could certainly attract a third superstar after igoudala and bogut are gone.

Kmart is also a lousy player. Horrible defender. That is a ton of salary for a mediocre player> Warriors would need to get a pick from Minny and find another team for Kmart = coach killer.

brj1;842326472 said:

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Kmart is also a lousy player. Horrible defender. That is a ton of salary for a mediocre player> Warriors would need to get a pick from Minny and find another team for Kmart = coach killer.

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Agreed, Kmart is not good and is on a bad contract. I don't see how the warriors would be able to acquire any better player for the next few years though. With bogut, steph, love, and igoudala all locked up and draymond getting paid, Martin is likely the best seventh or eighth man they can get for the next few years.

gobears7;842326487 said:

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Agreed, Kmart is not good and is on a bad contract. I don't see how the warriors would be able to acquire any better player for the next few years though. With bogut, steph, love, and igoudala all locked up and draymond getting paid, Martin is likely the best seventh or eighth man they can get for the next few years.

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KMart was disappointing with Minn because he signed a pretty sizeable contract and he has yet to live up to it. But the role he will play with the W's will be vastly different. With Minn. he was supposed to be one of their top 2-3 players.

With the the W's, he's going to fill in the 6th man role. and when coming off the bench, his defensive inefficiencies will be somewhat more covered up since he will be going against the other team's 2nd unit. He just needs to come in and score; that's what a 6th man is supposed to do. i mean really, is KMART's defense all that worse then Mr. 6th man of the year, Jamal Crawford?

When Kmart was coming off the bench when he was with the Thunder, he was very effective. he can be a very good piece if he is the 6th, 7th best guy on a good team. he's a very bad piece when he's expected to be the 2nd or 3rd best player on a bad team.

I would totally do it. While I love Lee and Klay, they aren't the pieces to get us into championship contention. Love potentially can. Window for a team is so small (unless you're the Spurs) so if you have the opportunity to get another top 10 player and contend for the championship, do it. Flags fly forever!!!

MoragaBear;842326266 said:

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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11108483/golden-state-warriors-add-klay-thompson-possible-kevin-love-trade

With the Warriors now willing to add Thompson to the package, should the Warriors make the trade suggested in the story without a sign and trade deal? I say no. You can't give up Lee and Thompson to rent Love for a year and hope he resigns with you.

If they can do a sign and trade, I'd definitely do the proposed Love, Martin, Barea and 13th pick for Lee and Thompson if I'm the Warriors but not without the contract security.

Thoughts?

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Love has to agree to an extension or you don't do the deal. I've seen so many different supposedly discussed proposals that at this point I think all of the reporting is off. A lot of this stuff comes from the Timberwolves - the Warriors tend to operate pretty quietly.

I'd really rather not take Martin but I'd do it if they added the 13th pick.

grandmastapoop;842326320 said:

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Eh? There are not many very good 2-guards left in the NBA.

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Yeah, that conventional wisdom is a bit off lately. I think it's true that it's the easiest spot to replace cheaply, but the number of quality twos out there is way down. However, the Warriors could probably pick up a good defender at that spot fairly cheaply and they'd be okay with their offense. Kevin Martin would be a horrible downgrade on defense and I'd hate to see him paired with Curry as starters.

bluesaxe;842326516 said:

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Love has to agree to an extension or you don't do the deal. I've seen so many different supposedly discussed proposals that at this point I think all of the reporting is off. A lot of this stuff comes from the Timberwolves - the Warriors tend to operate pretty quietly.

I'd really rather not take Martin but I'd do it if they added the 13th pick.

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This.

If the trade happens, the Warriors have to take Martin in order for the salary numbers to come out right. Last I heard was the #13 this year, and the W's giving up next year's 1st rounder.

ducky23;842326442 said:

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I haven't seen anyone report barrea, Kmart, love and draft pick. That would be highway robbery. Kmart would be an elite 6th man and is a much better player than Crawford. Barrea, assuming he's a good locker room fit, is better than Blake. Hell i would do the trade if it was just barrea and love. I'd even throw in a future 1st rounder.

The team as constructed has no chance for a title. None. I don't think anyone disputes that.

But let's say Barnes lives up to his huge potential and becomes a mini k Leonard. Then you have Bogut, love, iggy, Barnes and Steph. With kmart and green off the bench. That's a title contender.

Again this is a no brainer. Losing lee is actually beneficial to the team since his contract blows nuts and green is probably a better fit for this team than lee anyways. So lee is redundant even if you don't get love.

So losing lee is whatever. So you're basically trading Klay for love and possibly kmart and a pick? Are you f'ing kidding me??? You add in the fact that Klay becomes a max player next year and I don't see how anyone can be against this deal. You wanna pay love a max deal or Klay?

Lacob better back up all of his talk and make this happen.

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I'd rather do the trade without Martin. I don't think he's at all elite and he's still got three years of being overpaid iirc. I agree he'd be better than Crawford, but I think there's a reasonable argument that stabbing myself with a fork for 15 minutes a game is better than Crawford.

bluesaxe;842326516 said:

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Love has to agree to an extension or you don't do the deal. I've seen so many different supposedly discussed proposals that at this point I think all of the reporting is off. A lot of this stuff comes from the Timberwolves - the Warriors tend to operate pretty quietly.

I'd really rather not take Martin but I'd do it if they added the 13th pick.

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I would be shocked if the Wolves included a pick. That makes no sense. I think that was reported incorrectly from the start.

If you have faith in your organization, you do the deal without an extension. If nothing else, this saves you from giving Klay a max deal and keeps you flexible going forward.

bluesaxe;842326520 said:

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I'd rather do the trade without Martin. I don't think he's at all elite and he's still got three years of being overpaid iirc. I agree he'd be better than Crawford, but I think there's a reasonable argument that stabbing myself with a fork for 15 minutes a game is better than Crawford.

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i said Kmart would be an "elite 6th man"; interesting how you left that wording out.

last time he was a 6th man (2012-2013) he was voted 4th for 6th man of the year. ahead of guys like ginobili and ryan anderson.

again, he's not going to be starting. I'm not sure why you believe he's coming in to replace Klay. He's not. either draymond or Barnes will be replacing Klay.

Martin will be the 6th or 7th guy off the bench. in that role, he can excel.

will he be expensive? sure. but you're taking on his bloated contract and getting rid of Lee's more ridiculous contract. plus, the huge deal in all of this, is that you get rid of Klay who will be demanding a max contract next year.

you really want to be in a position where you have to pay klay more than you are paying steph? I don't think the warriors want to do that; thus you get rid of Klay for value rather than losing him for nothing in FA.

this is really rather simple stuff.

I think you've gotta do it if you're confident that Love will extend. His defense is subpar but he's a very solid scorer and he may be the best rebounder in the NBA since Dennis Rodman. I don't necessarily think Love is a player you can build a franchise around but then again I don't feel that way about Klay either.

MoragaBear;842326266 said:

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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11108483/golden-state-warriors-add-klay-thompson-possible-kevin-love-trade

With the Warriors now willing to add Thompson to the package, should the Warriors make the trade suggested in the story without a sign and trade deal? I say no. You can't give up Lee and Thompson to rent Love for a year and hope he resigns with you.

If they can do a sign and trade, I'd definitely do the proposed Love, Martin, Barea and 13th pick for Lee and Thompson if I'm the Warriors but not without the contract security.

Thoughts?

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Would Minnesota do the deal if Klay doesn't agree to an extension?

Also, some additional clarification from Monte Pool at CSNBA:

The Warriors entered discussions with Timberwolves basketball chief Flip Saunders with the hopes of keeping Thompson in Oakland. They'd rather trade Harrison Barnes. But Minny wants Klay -- so much so that the T'Wolves reportedly are considering giving the Warriors their first-round pick (13th overall) in next week's draft.

That has forced the Warriors to rethink their stance on Thompson. They don't have a pick in the draft. The thought of adding one is enough to loosen their grip on Klay. If Minny is willing to hand over J.J. Berea as a backup point guard, the Warriors absolutely have to consider it.

Should they do it?

Yes, if they're getting an immediate first-round pick in the deal -- even if it means losing a first-round pick in 2015.

philbert;842326592 said:

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Would Minnesota do the deal if Klay doesn't agree to an extension?

Also, some additional clarification from Monte Pool at CSNBA:

The Warriors entered discussions with Timberwolves basketball chief Flip Saunders with the hopes of keeping Thompson in Oakland. They'd rather trade Harrison Barnes. But Minny wants Klay -- so much so that the T'Wolves reportedly are considering giving the Warriors their first-round pick (13th overall) in next week's draft.

That has forced the Warriors to rethink their stance on Thompson. They don't have a pick in the draft. The thought of adding one is enough to loosen their grip on Klay. If Minny is willing to hand over J.J. Berea as a backup point guard, the Warriors absolutely have to consider it.

Should they do it?

Yes, if they're getting an immediate first-round pick in the deal -- even if it means losing a first-round pick in 2015.

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Drafting Kyle Anderson as a backup PG is very intriguing, although I'm not sure he fits into the W's system.

Ennis, Lavine, or Saric would also be interesting at #13.

I'm not a big fan of McDermott's NBA prospects, but he might actually fit in well with the W's since he could come off the bench and stretch the floor.
although i don't think you want to draft a perennial bench guy with #13.

Dubs would want Stauskas at #13. Kerr even specifically mentioned him in an interview with Tolbert.

Kawakami has a very good take on this deal:

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2014/06/19/warriors-chase-kevin-love-know-can-get-deal-done-featuring-klay-thompson-kind-deal/

My two cents: do the deal (like immediately). Another writer brought up the example of Eric Gordon and the Clips when they were deciding to trade for Chris Paul. You always do the deal if you are getting the current best player (esp one that is a Top 10-15 franchise player). Let Minny take the risk of Klay reaching his potential.

And btw, Curry is not staying if the Dubs are not title contenders in the next three years when his contract is up. That's the disaster scenario.