Who wants to inform me of:
Who might leave?
Who WILL stay?
Where do the W's need an upgrade? I mean, what if opponents next season aren't injured?
What are the chances of a repeat?

David Lee will be leaving
Draymond Green should re-sign, we hope (seems both sides agree he will get a max deal)
steph and klay are under contract and will definitely be back.

that is all i know.

David Lee - gone.
Draymond Green - W's will match any restricted offer (prob Max or close).

Edit: Rico beat me to it.

decisions to make on speights(team option) and barbosa(free agent)

The caveat of Lee being gone is can they get a taker for his $15M salary without having to give up too much? Would they give up their 1st round pick to do it? I'm not sure. If it's a couple of 2nd rounders, then sure. (alternatively, they could take back a bad contract or two, but then they would have to pay the luxury tax)

Speights may not get his option picked up due to luxury tax concerns.

philbert;842507751 said:

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The caveat of Lee being gone is can they get a taker for his $15M salary without having to give up too much? Would they give up their 1st round pick to do it? I'm not sure. If it's a couple of 2nd rounders, then sure. (alternatively, they could take back a bad contract or two, but then they would have to pay the luxury tax)

Speights may not get his option picked up due to luxury tax concerns.

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Don't know about the options and luxury tax but looks like Green and Barbosa are the main 2 players not under contract for 2015/2016.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/GSW.html

Green they are definitely keeping. Lee is as good as gone. Barbosa is a maybe, depending on the price tag. I think everyone else is still under contract? They have a pretty nice roster for next season if that's the case.

As for their chances of repeating, probably pretty good:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-warriors-could-be-the-1990s-bulls-or-the-1970s-bucks/

The teams with the closest profiles to the Warriors generally did go on to win another championship with the same core group. The '71 Bucks are the exception, but they were still a top contender for the next few seasons (until the Big O retired and Kareem left).

So yeah, it looks likely these Warriors aren't going anywhere. Maybe they don't repeat next year, but chances of another run to the Finals within the next 3-4 seasons are good.

a pipe dream but i think tristan thompson of the cavaliers is a player Warriors should try to pursue....Rebounding machine with a sweet left hook. imho the warriors will be close to unstoppable if they had him

philbert;842507751 said:

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The caveat of Lee being gone is can they get a taker for his $15M salary without having to give up too much? Would they give up their 1st round pick to do it? I'm not sure. If it's a couple of 2nd rounders, then sure. (alternatively, they could take back a bad contract or two, but then they would have to pay the luxury tax)

Speights may not get his option picked up due to luxury tax concerns.

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They'd be stupid to take on bad contracts or give up anything of value to trade Lee. He's heading into the last year of his contract. The only downsides to keeping him are a potential hit to team chemistry (he's probably not going to keep quiet about his desire to play next year) and the luxury tax. The tax shouldn't be a big concern as it'd be a one year issue and they're making huge amounts of money off the championship run. They're basically trading him to avoid locker room issues and as a professional courtesy / thank you for accepting the role he had this year.

boredom;842507771 said:

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They'd be stupid to take on bad contracts or give up anything of value to trade Lee. He's heading into the last year of his contract. The only downsides to keeping him are a potential hit to team chemistry (he's probably not going to keep quiet about his desire to play next year) and the luxury tax. The tax shouldn't be a big concern as it'd be a one year issue and they're making huge amounts of money off the championship run. They're basically trading him to avoid locker room issues and as a professional courtesy / thank you for accepting the role he had this year.

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Agree 100%. Everyone else seems to think he's gone, though. I think they will *try* to move him if the price is right.

boredom;842507771 said:

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They'd be stupid to take on bad contracts or give up anything of value to trade Lee. He's heading into the last year of his contract. The only downsides to keeping him are a potential hit to team chemistry (he's probably not going to keep quiet about his desire to play next year) and the luxury tax. The tax shouldn't be a big concern as it'd be a one year issue and they're making huge amounts of money off the championship run. They're basically trading him to avoid locker room issues and as a professional courtesy / thank you for accepting the role he had this year.

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If they keep the same roster, the luxury tax will be an issue for years to come. Then it just becomes a question if you are willing to pay it.

sycasey;842507759 said:

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Green they are definitely keeping. Lee is as good as gone. Barbosa is a maybe, depending on the price tag.

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Kerr has history with Barbosa while both in Phoenix, so they will try to sign. The other key position will be replacing Alvin Gentry, who really the mastermind behind their offensive game plan.

ShoutsOfNothingness;842507763 said:

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a pipe dream but i think tristan thompson of the cavaliers is a player Warriors should try to pursue....Rebounding machine with a sweet left hook. imho the warriors will be close to unstoppable if they had him

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theres no way that they could add him unless cleveland did a sign and trade with us for david lee. cleveland doesnt need two power forwards that arent good defensively(love and lee)

I think Lee will be leaving (just like everybody thinks). I think they have to give Curry a raise - you can't have the reigning MVP getting 50th best salary in the NBA. I thought Iggy's contract was expiring or option year and figured they would try for a reduced salary with extension. And the cap is supposed to go up BIG. If Green is a restricted free agent then what does that mean for Barnes/Ezelli? They were drafted same year and should be in the last year or two of their contracts. I say keep both. And Bogut should be moved or take a pay cut.

btsktr;842507777 said:

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If they keep the same roster, the luxury tax will be an issue for years to come. Then it just becomes a question if you are willing to pay it.

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I have not heard this same concern echoed in articles. So I had heard the would have to live with luxury tax for 1 year. The perception was that the salary cap will keep going up and that therefore max deals signed by green and klay will look better in the next couple of years as they represent a smaller % of total cap.

That said, eventually they need to correct Curry's deal.

I love green but hard to see him as a max player for some reason...maybe because he is so unique vs a dominant scorer. He does a lot of things well but really does feel like right guy right place. Feel like he is more valuable to W's than he is for most/all other teams and at the same time I think he is more effective with this team then he will be if he goes anywhere else.

aws56;842507811 said:

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I have not heard this same concern echoed in articles. So I had heard the would have to live with luxury tax for 1 year. The perception was that the salary cap will keep going up and that therefore max deals signed by green and klay will look better in the next couple of years as they represent a smaller % of total cap.

That said, eventually they need to correct Curry's deal.

I love green but hard to see him as a max player for some reason...maybe because he is so unique vs a dominant scorer. He does a lot of things well but really does feel like right guy right place. Feel like he is more valuable to W's than he is for most/all other teams and at the same time I think he is more effective with this team then he will be if he goes anywhere else.

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Klay's salary this year was 3 mil, next year it will be 15.5 mil. Steph will become a free agent after the new CBA is signed, so he will get the whatever the new max is. Plus, if I was a player at this point I would try to make my contract expire right after the new CBA is signed. Also Festus and Barnes both are FA the year Steph is.

Also, a "rising tide lifts all boats", so even as the salary cap goes up, obviously all players salaries will go up. Bogut, Iguodala, Curry, Barnes, Livingston, and Ezeli all become FA after the new CBA is signed. And as soon as the salary cap increases other teams will have more space to offer bigger deals to all of these players.

aws56;842507811 said:

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I have not heard this same concern echoed in articles. So I had heard the would have to live with luxury tax for 1 year. The perception was that the salary cap will keep going up and that therefore max deals signed by green and klay will look better in the next couple of years as they represent a smaller % of total cap.

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That's also what I've been reading. Pretty much everyone is expecting the cap to rise a lot after next year, which ironically might make it harder to move David Lee (normally an expiring contract is a big asset, but in this environment maybe not), but easier to sign players to large deals now.

btsktr;842507820 said:

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Klay's salary this year was 3 mil, next year it will be 15.5 mil. Steph will become a free agent after the new CBA is signed, so he will get the whatever the new max is. Plus, if I was a player at this point I would try to make my contract expire right after the new CBA is signed. Also Festus and Barnes both are FA the year Steph is.

Also, a "rising tide lifts all boats", so even as the salary cap goes up, obviously all players salaries will go up. Bogut, Iguodala, Curry, Barnes, Livingston, and Ezeli all become FA after the new CBA is signed. And as soon as the salary cap increases other teams will have more space to offer bigger deals to all of these players.

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the key in my opinion is that i believe that they will need to keep the core of curry, thompson, green and ezeli together. i think ezeli is going to develop into a pretty dominant big barring injuries. after that, its barnes at the right price and then have to do what the spurs did and retool their bench and role players. at that point bogut, iguodala and livingston might be getting too old and could only be worth keeping at reduced numbers

boredom;842507771 said:

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They'd be stupid to take on bad contracts or give up anything of value to trade Lee. He's heading into the last year of his contract. The only downsides to keeping him are a potential hit to team chemistry (he's probably not going to keep quiet about his desire to play next year) and the luxury tax. The tax shouldn't be a big concern as it'd be a one year issue and they're making huge amounts of money off the championship run. They're basically trading him to avoid locker room issues and as a professional courtesy / thank you for accepting the role he had this year.

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If Lee would prefer to go elsewhere, so be it. But, from the Ws' perspective, he was just beginning to round back into the consistent 20/10 player he basically is - deadly within 10 feet, and a major re-bounder. The only caveat is whether age (which happens at different time to different people) is what led to his two recent injuries, such that he could be counted on to get injured again soon.

mikecohen;842507844 said:

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If Lee would prefer to go elsewhere, so be it. But, from the Ws' perspective, he was just beginning to round back into the consistent 20/10 player he basically is - deadly within 10 feet, and a major re-bounder. The only caveat is whether age (which happens at different time to different people) is what led to his two recent injuries, such that he could be counted on to get injured again soon.

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there was an article kawakami wrote awhile back and it went into how the warriors main motivation to trying to stay under the luxury tax would have to do with keeping the mid-level exception which would allow them to sign another player, not necessarily paying the tax. my thinking with that is whether they could get a player that fits the team better than lee or would just keep lee. thats more the choice that they would have to make

gobears725;842507852 said:

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there was an article kawakami wrote awhile back and it went into how the warriors main motivation to trying to stay under the luxury tax would have to do with keeping the mid-level exception which would allow them to sign another player, not necessarily paying the tax. my thinking with that is whether they could get a player that fits the team better than lee or would just keep lee. thats more the choice that they would have to make

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Which is essentially the question my post posits: Who could possibly fit the team better than a fully functioning 20/10 guy, who, under the new defensive regime (and I'm assuming that Ron Adams stays, and Draymond Green), is a lot better defensive player already (in addition to the ghostly rebounding) than in previous seasons? The only thing better might be the same person who could also shoot 3s, and maybe who is younger and more health/fitness conscious (although, with young guys like Kyrie Irving and Patrick Beverly dropping like flies, again the health/fitness consciousness [LeBron has it] is probably more important than the age factor)

mikecohen;842507864 said:

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Which is essentially the question my post posits: Who could possibly fit the team better than a fully functioning 20/10 guy, who, under the new defensive regime (and I'm assuming that Ron Adams stays, and Draymond Green), is a lot better defensive player already (in addition to the ghostly rebounding) than in previous seasons? The only thing better might be the same person who could also shoot 3s, and maybe who is younger and more health/fitness conscious (although, with young guys like Kyrie Irving and Patrick Beverly dropping like flies, again the health/fitness consciousness [LeBron has it] is probably more important than the age factor)

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i agree, i love lee. id love for him to stay and feel that itd be worth it for a year. it probably also has a lot to do with whether he wants to continue to accept a reduced role on this team vs playing a lot on a more marginal team. at least for now though he seems to be enjoying the moment. saw a nice article about how him, green and ezeli were in sf last night partying it up. not too often where the older guys not only accept and but hang out and truly enjoy the younger guys and their eventual replacements. just whats special about this group. says a lot about lee too

I think the boldest move would be to sign Marc Gasol and trade Bogut for future draft pick(s). With their new stature as NBA champs, maybe he would do it.

Probably not practical. Maybe not enough shots to go around, but they could be unstoppable.

any rookie help ?

going4roses;842507876 said:

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any rookie help ?

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Picking 30th, hard to get rookie help.. ... see GSW's 2014 1st round pick?? Did not much PT or even on roster... so, generally speaking, will be project...
but... remember, Draymond Green was a 2nd rounder.. and Festus was a late 1st rounder.


Look for low-mid 20 player drop down to 30... such as Rondae Hollis-Jefferson/Az.

Recall how far Aaron Rodgers kept falling to Green Bay? (no24)

so, GSW scouting team have been working on draft during playoff run... now cram this weekend to begin to figure out who to pick at 30.

go gsW
:gobears:

mikecohen;842507864 said:

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Which is essentially the question my post posits: Who could possibly fit the team better than a fully functioning 20/10 guy, who, under the new defensive regime (and I'm assuming that Ron Adams stays, and Draymond Green), is a lot better defensive player already (in addition to the ghostly rebounding) than in previous seasons? The only thing better might be the same person who could also shoot 3s, and maybe who is younger and more health/fitness conscious (although, with young guys like Kyrie Irving and Patrick Beverly dropping like flies, again the health/fitness consciousness [LeBron has it] is probably more important than the age factor)

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The dubs need a shooter off the bench. The cavs showed the dubs weakness in that you can take away Steph and klay and all the other shooters are inconsistent.

Someone like Marco bellinelli would be ideal.

This tweet shows the future salary cap and roster situations and assumes they will keep Lee and the 30th pick next year.

MilleniaBear;842507803 said:

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I think Lee will be leaving (just like everybody thinks). I think they have to give Curry a raise - you can't have the reigning MVP getting 50th best salary in the NBA. I thought Iggy's contract was expiring or option year and figured they would try for a reduced salary with extension. And the cap is supposed to go up BIG. If Green is a restricted free agent then what does that mean for Barnes/Ezelli? They were drafted same year and should be in the last year or two of their contracts. I say keep both. And Bogut should be moved or take a pay cut.

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You don't get to give Curry a raise until he's eligible for an extension. Nor do guys take pay cuts. Not allowed.

Curry is a smart guy who realizes that he and the team both took risks and gained certainty with his current contract, and they will extend him the minute they can for a max if he wants it. And he's smart enough to know that he does not want to sign any kind of long term deal right now because the cap, and the max, will jump hugely in 2016. Plus if Curry were somehow to get a bigger contract for next year they probably couldn't keep Green and Barnes, whereas in another year life will be different because of the cap increase. Green was a second round pick and is a RFA. Ezeli and Barnes are both under team control through next season - longer contracts as rookies because they were first rounders.

Lee will be moved.

ShoutsOfNothingness;842507763 said:

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a pipe dream but i think tristan thompson of the cavaliers is a player Warriors should try to pursue....Rebounding machine with a sweet left hook. imho the warriors will be close to unstoppable if they had him

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He doesn't fit the Warriors' style of play at all. Nor do they have any real ability to get him anyway. He's going to get paid, probably by the Cavs.

boredom;842507771 said:

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They'd be stupid to take on bad contracts or give up anything of value to trade Lee. He's heading into the last year of his contract. The only downsides to keeping him are a potential hit to team chemistry (he's probably not going to keep quiet about his desire to play next year) and the luxury tax. The tax shouldn't be a big concern as it'd be a one year issue and they're making huge amounts of money off the championship run. They're basically trading him to avoid locker room issues and as a professional courtesy / thank you for accepting the role he had this year.

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The luxury tax hit could be as much as $45 million though if they re-sign Green and extend Barnes. They have to move Lee and probably will have to give up a first rounder to do it. .

bluesaxe;842507904 said:

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The luxury tax hit could be as much as $45 million though if they re-sign Green and extend Barnes. They have to move Lee and probably will have to give up a first rounder to do it. .

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A GSW 1st rounder is essentially a 2nd rounder.

aws56;842507811 said:

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I have not heard this same concern echoed in articles. So I had heard the would have to live with luxury tax for 1 year. The perception was that the salary cap will keep going up and that therefore max deals signed by green and klay will look better in the next couple of years as they represent a smaller % of total cap.

That said, eventually they need to correct Curry's deal.

I love green but hard to see him as a max player for some reason...maybe because he is so unique vs a dominant scorer. He does a lot of things well but really does feel like right guy right place. Feel like he is more valuable to W's than he is for most/all other teams and at the same time I think he is more effective with this team then he will be if he goes anywhere else.

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I don't think it's true that the luxury tax is a guaranteed issue for the same reason I don't think Green isn't a max player at the current max level. In 2016 the cap is jumping from $66M or whatever it is this year to around $90M, and the luxury tax levels rise correspondingly. A max player at current levels, like Green might be, will end up looking like a guy making $10M this year in terms of percentage of payroll. Not a big deal.

philbert;842507901 said:

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This tweet shows the future salary cap and roster situations and assumes they will keep Lee and the 30th pick next year.

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Thanks for that -- pretty interesting and helpfully organized.
If I'm the warriors owner $35m over the cap next year, I'd like to get another team to pay Lee and Bogut next year.
Your core of Steph, Klay, Draymond, Andre, Harrison along with Shaun and Festus still looks very competitive.

ducky23;842507895 said:

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The dubs need a shooter off the bench. The cavs showed the dubs weakness in that you can take away Steph and klay and all the other shooters are inconsistent.

Someone like Marco bellinelli would be ideal.

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I was a little surprised that Ray Allen (speaking of a shooter off the bench -- Allen is legendary) did not sign with anybody this year before the deadline -- Cleveland really could have used him.

btsktr;842507820 said:

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Klay's salary this year was 3 mil, next year it will be 15.5 mil. Steph will become a free agent after the new CBA is signed, so he will get the whatever the new max is. Plus, if I was a player at this point I would try to make my contract expire right after the new CBA is signed. Also Festus and Barnes both are FA the year Steph is.

Also, a "rising tide lifts all boats", so even as the salary cap goes up, obviously all players salaries will go up. Bogut, Iguodala, Curry, Barnes, Livingston, and Ezeli all become FA after the new CBA is signed. And as soon as the salary cap increases other teams will have more space to offer bigger deals to all of these players.

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Well, unless someone opts out of the CBA in 2017 it will run until 2021 and Steph's contract is up before that so I think you're confusing the CBA with the increased revenue coming in 2016-7. The salary cap and the new max are attributable to the new tv contract kicking in season after next. That's what players will wait for. That won't have any impact on Iguodala because he'll be 33 or 34 when his contract expires and I don't think he'll be getting a salary increase from the W's at that point. Ezeli and Barnes are not free agents the same year as Steph - they each have one less year on their contracts and at least one of them is likely to be extended before those contracts expire. The W's and Barnes are already in discussions about it. Lee's contract will be gone so that's $15M off the books after next season unless they take back longer term contracts in a trade.