I came across the linked article on NBA free agents getting overpaid. We have been hearing a lot about that, with respect to Harrison Barnes, and more-so, Mozgov, Dellavadova, and others. The article compared the value based on the "wins above replacement (WAR)" metric to their actual contracts.

The player with the greatest discrepancy on their list was Ryan Anderson, who will be paid 20 million/year but is worth only 1.94 million/year according to their calculation. I was surprised by his low WAR! I don't see him play much-- does anyone know why he is so statistically weak? Is it poor defense?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2016-is-a-great-summer-to-be-a-mediocre-nba-free-agent/

He is probably the worst defensive player in the NBA.

Bearprof;842709883 said:

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I came across the linked article on NBA free agents getting overpaid. We have been hearing a lot about that, with respect to Harrison Barnes, and more-so, Mozgov, Dellavadova, and others. The article compared the value based on the "wins above replacement (WAR)" metric to their actual contracts.

The player with the greatest discrepancy on their list was Ryan Anderson, who will be paid 20 million/year but is worth only 1.94 million/year according to their calculation. I was surprised by his low WAR! I don't see him play much-- does anyone know why he is so statistically weak? Is it poor defense?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2016-is-a-great-summer-to-be-a-mediocre-nba-free-agent/

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Eventually they won't even need to play games. They'll just enter every player's metric projections into a computer program, let it sort out the game probability and compute the winner. Oh, wait, that's NBA2K. Never mind.

I will say this about metrics. The Rawlings Gold Glove Awards began including metrics as 25% of the scoring 2 years ago (The teams' managerial staff's votes compose the other 75%, before they were 100% of the scoring) and ever since there have been some 'interesting' results.

alarsuel;842709885 said:

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He is probably the worst defensive player in the NBA.

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Not even close

They are comparing value based on a set of factors that don't exist, however: "[FONT=ArnhemPro]These projections assume a player's full value in a world with a team salary cap but without a [/FONT]maximum individual salary[FONT=ArnhemPro], which would allow the best players to be paid something closer to their true value but perhaps leave less budget for more marginal players." That is not, at least at the moment, the measure of value in the NBA, which does have a maximum individual salary.[/FONT]

Bearprof;842709883 said:

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I came across the linked article on NBA free agents getting overpaid. We have been hearing a lot about that, with respect to Harrison Barnes, and more-so, Mozgov, Dellavadova, and others. The article compared the value based on the "wins above replacement (WAR)" metric to their actual contracts.

The player with the greatest discrepancy on their list was Ryan Anderson, who will be paid 20 million/year but is worth only 1.94 million/year according to their calculation. I was surprised by his low WAR! I don't see him play much-- does anyone know why he is so statistically weak? Is it poor defense?

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2016-is-a-great-summer-to-be-a-mediocre-nba-free-agent/

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barabbas;842709933 said:

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Not even close

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I can't tell if you're agreeing with me.

alarsuel;842709968 said:

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I can't tell if you're agreeing with me.

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Anderson is a very poor defender, but worst? ESPN's Real Plus
Minus had Terrence Jones, Mirza Teletovic, and Derrick Williams at the bottom of their DRPM (Defensive Real Plus Minus) for the PF spot. Anderson was 89th out of 96. Keep in mind that the Pelicans were a poor defensive team (28th out of 30 in Defensive Efficiency) and that probably lowered Ryan's defensive ratings more than if he played on an average defensive team.

tsubamoto2001;842709975 said:

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Anderson is a very poor defender, but worst? ESPN's Real Plus
Minus had Terrence Jones, Mirza Teletovic, and Derrick Williams at the bottom of their DRPM (Defensive Real Plus Minus) for the PF spot. Anderson was 89th out of 96. Keep in mind that the Pelicans were a poor defensive team (28th out of 30 in Defensive Efficiency) and that probably lowered Ryan's defensive ratings more than if he played on an average defensive team.

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I was just in the middle of some analysis when you posted. Your analysis is probably better than mine. I just looked at defensive rating of all players (not separated by position). Ryan was rated 170th out of 191 players--seemingly near the very bottom.

But then I looked at some other players and was a little surprised. For example, Klay Thompson is usually touted as an excellent defender, and Steph Curry was widely being disrespected during the playoffs on his defensive prowess. But Steph was rated 25th in NBA and Klay much below him at 106th in the NBA. And Westbrook, who was smirking about how Curry defended lesser players while Westbrook was good enough to defend the best, is rated below Curry, at 32nd in the NBA.

I am guessing that this is because Klay (and perhaps Westbrook) DO defend the better players and therefore do relatively worse in their ratings.

If that is the case, it seems to me that these stats are pretty useless.

You used Defensive Real plus minus, which may be a lot better. On that rating, though, Klay is not so hot either: 282 out of 462 players. But he is much higher than Steph, who comes in with a woeful 418 out of 462. And Ryan is at 370 out of 462. Somehow, though, it seems to me that these stats are not very useful.

bluesaxe;842709957 said:

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They are comparing value based on a set of factors that don't exist, however: "[FONT=ArnhemPro]These projections assume a player's full value in a world with a team salary cap but without a [/FONT]maximum individual salary[FONT=ArnhemPro], which would allow the best players to be paid something closer to their true value but perhaps leave less budget for more marginal players." That is not, at least at the moment, the measure of value in the NBA, which does have a maximum individual salary.[/FONT]

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That sounds a LOT like my Economics courses at Cal: "We are going to work with the assumptions of easy movement of capital and goods throughout the market, market-wide knowledge of pricing, etc. etc." and then at the end of the course "...now of course many of these assumptions don't apply to the marketplace....."

Bearprof;842709981 said:

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I was just in the middle of some analysis when you posted. Your analysis is probably better than mine. I just looked at defensive rating of all players (not separated by position). Ryan was rated 170th out of 191 players--seemingly near the very bottom.

But then I looked at some other players and was a little surprised. For example, Klay Thompson is usually touted as an excellent defender, and Steph Curry was widely being disrespected during the playoffs on his defensive prowess. But Steph was rated 25th in NBA and Klay much below him at 106th in the NBA. And Westbrook, who was smirking about how Curry defended lesser players while Westbrook was good enough to defend the best, is rated below Curry, at 32nd in the NBA.

I am guessing that this is because Klay (and perhaps Westbrook) DO defend the better players and therefore do relatively worse in their ratings.

If that is the case, it seems to me that these stats are pretty useless.

You used Defensive Real plus minus, which may be a lot better. On that rating, though, Klay is not so hot either: 282 out of 462 players. But he is much higher than Steph, who comes in with a woeful 418 out of 462. And Ryan is at 370 out of 462. Somehow, though, it seems to me that these stats are not very useful.

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Defense is very hard to quantify statistically. You've got guys who are elite defenders in guarding the ball and also have a big effect on their team by also being a major presence in their team's scheme (off the ball). Guys like Tony Allen, Andre Iguodala, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Kawhi Leonard fit this description.

Klay has made great strides in becoming a good on ball defender, but that in and of itself, is harder to represent in terms of these Plus-Minus type stats.