I won't venture into handicapping this tournament, but I think Cal has a very tough matchup, just because Colorado has been peaking. They started the conference 2-6, then ran off 5 straight wins, had a double hiccup against the Washingtons, and then ran off 3 straight wins to end the regular season.

Anyone have any thoughts on this game?

tough one. will need plenty of 3's. so what else is new.

It is 6,000 ft in Denver. It is probaby below sea level in LV. CO is much better at home.

We played them at Berkeley last time and lost 68 to 59 . I think we were down 18 points at the half and came back to take the lead with seven minutes left in the game . Colorado then came back and scored seven straight and held on to the lead to win the game. We were very tired after coming back and just needed more beach support, which is still weak. This first round game is very winnable .

If Vanover is hitting, Buffs s/b leaving.

Go Bears!

Las Vegas is over 2000 feet in elevation. Not enough to matter, but hardly "below sea level."

Tad Boyle will not leave Vanover open. Better coach than Hasse.

oskidunker said:

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Tad Boyle will not leave Vanover open. Better coach than Hasse.

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I assume he learned something at Haas. If memory serves, he is one of the few coaches to screw the pooch and play us man to man D which allowed us to close the gap. He can't be stupid enough to do that again...unless the BIG MAN starts crushing it.
How is this for an optimist's spin: The Buffs lost games to the three teams we beat. I also believe we will play harder than they will.....and yes, odds are Buffs win the game. ..but we are one flying knee to the chin from a victory!

One way to defend a big which is a lot taller than you (if you are playing man defense) is to put your chest right on his chest. This gives them no space to bring the ball up to shoot nor move nor catch a pass. Technically under current freedom of movement rules, it might be a whistle but I've never seen it called.

Hard to execute depending on who you are defending (e.g. very mobile bigs)

it's a technique we should use as we often have players defending taller players

Basketball Bear said:

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We played them at Berkeley last time and lost 68 to 59 . I think we were down 18 points at the half and came back to take the lead with seven minutes left in the game . Colorado then came back and scored seven straight and held on to the lead to win the game. We were very tired after coming back and just needed more beach support, which is still weak. This first round game is very winnable .

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It would be nice to get more support from the beach crowd, but I'd settle for more bench support.

Basketball Bear said:

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We played them at Berkeley last time and lost 68 to 59 . I think we were down 18 points at the half and came back to take the lead with seven minutes left in the game . ... .

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I overlooked your post. The reason that happened is because their coach stubbornly stayed in man D. We have too many ball handlers with speed for that to have a happy ending for most teams. I thought he was having some sort of a vascular incident or just flat out panicking. It remains a mystery.

Espn gives Colorado a 91.6% of winning. I think Cal has about a 40% chance of winning. Colorado should win but who the hell knows.

oskidunker said:

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Espn gives Colorado a 91.6% of winning. I think Cal has about a 40% chance of winning. Colorado should win but who the hell knows.

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They gave Furd a 94% chance of beating Cal at Maples.

So you would take Cal and the points?

oskidunker said:

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So you would take Cal and the points?

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I need to see the points first but with that percentage you have to figure Cal + 10. That is a two 8 pack wager on Cal and take the points.





With some self discipline, you may have a couple of cans left over for St. Patty's Day.

Hopefully they stick to man for the whole game. Set screens ....down screens, side screens, double screens, we all screen for ice cream...to loosen up Connor to get outside..especially mid range jumpers..i see a possible dip in 3pters for him with additional tournament pressure...hope not. Pulling Connor out from rim opens the middle and underneath allowing for dribble drive finish...also hitting Grant turn,catch, and shoot at high post. Paris 10 dimes.
Most teams are hip to Suings spin move to his left on the dribble where he jumps after spin to create in the air. He's missing more and not getting as many fouls called. Need Justice to lead our guys. I'd put Bey on Justice...he worked Boatwright( 3 charges) Bradley to run point when Austin catches breather. Get Matt on scoreboard early.
Make Free Throws. Agree with Bearister..we're the dog but I see a good well fought contest. Colrado-8.

Go Bears

oskidunker said:

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Espn gives Colorado a 91.6% of winning. I think Cal has about a 40% chance of winning. Colorado should win but who the hell knows.

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I don't understand the math here. There are only two possibilities for the outcome of a basketball game, a win, or a loss. And the two probabilities have to add up to 1, don't they?

SFCityBear said:

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oskidunker said:

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Espn gives Colorado a 91.6% of winning. I think Cal has about a 40% chance of winning. Colorado should win but who the hell knows.

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I don't understand the math here. There are only two possibilities for the outcome of a basketball game, a win, or a loss. And the two probabilities have to add up to 1, don't they?

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I don't think your understanding of math is the problem, your reading comprehension is the problem. ESPN gives Colorado a 91.6% chance of winning, i.e., Cal has an 8.4% chance of winning. So oskidunker disagrees with ESPN's computer, thinks Cal has a 40% chance of winning (i.e., Colorado has a 60% chance of winning).

The problem with ESPN's numbers is that they take the whole season too much into consideration. I might put Cal's chances at more like 32%, Colorado at 68%, but still, closer to what oskidunker thinks than what ESPN's computer program says.

Cal8285 said:

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SFCityBear said:

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oskidunker said:

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Espn gives Colorado a 91.6% of winning. I think Cal has about a 40% chance of winning. Colorado should win but who the hell knows.

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I don't understand the math here. There are only two possibilities for the outcome of a basketball game, a win, or a loss. And the two probabilities have to add up to 1, don't they?

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I don't think your understanding of math is the problem, your reading comprehension is the problem. ESPN gives Colorado a 91.6% chance of winning, i.e., Cal has an 8.4% chance of winning. So oskidunker disagrees with ESPN's computer, thinks Cal has a 40% chance of winning (i.e., Colorado has a 60% chance of winning).

The problem with ESPN's numbers is that they take the whole season too much into consideration. I might put Cal's chances at more like 32%, Colorado at 68%, but still, closer to what oskidunker thinks than what ESPN's computer program says.

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I agree with your assessment of ESPN's numbers being flawed taking into account stats for entire season. I perused last 5 games of both teams and I have it 60% Bufs 40% bears as you do. Really close in 4 major categories. Bufs will open 8 pt favorite though.
I'm looking forward to finishing up the season strong. Go Besrs.

We will know in the first 10 minutes. If Cal is hot from three, then there is a chance. If the reverse happens, good night Irene, helltopay1=and Wyking.

Given Cal's prior comebacks, when playing poorly, the first 10 minutes might mot be dispositive.

You gotta think that based on the last 3 games we will at least be competitive. But when you've been as bad as a whole as we have been this year, sometimes that game to game momentum dissolves very quickly. It wouldn't completely surprise me if we got blown out - nor would it surprise me if squeaked out a close victory.
With these neutral site tournaments its extremely hard to tell.

RedlessWardrobe said:

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You gotta think that based on the last 3 games we will at least be competitive. But when you've been as bad as a whole as we have been this year, sometimes that game to game momentum dissolves very quickly. It wouldn't completely surprise me if we got blown out - nor would it surprise me if squeaked out a close victory.
With these neutral site tournaments its extremely hard to tell.

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Agree 100%

Cal8285 said:

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SFCityBear said:

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oskidunker said:

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Espn gives Colorado a 91.6% of winning. I think Cal has about a 40% chance of winning. Colorado should win but who the hell knows.

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I don't understand the math here. There are only two possibilities for the outcome of a basketball game, a win, or a loss. And the two probabilities have to add up to 1, don't they?

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I don't think your understanding of math is the problem, your reading comprehension is the problem. ESPN gives Colorado a 91.6% chance of winning, i.e., Cal has an 8.4% chance of winning. So oskidunker disagrees with ESPN's computer, thinks Cal has a 40% chance of winning (i.e., Colorado has a 60% chance of winning).

The problem with ESPN's numbers is that they take the whole season too much into consideration. I might put Cal's chances at more like 32%, Colorado at 68%, but still, closer to what oskidunker thinks than what ESPN's computer program says.

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Thank you for the correction. I will try and pay better attention.

We will have to deal with colorado's big guard bey:

https://pac-12.com/article/2019/03/11/colorados-bey-powers-way-final-pac-12-mens-basketball-weekly-honor

Cal8285 said:

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The problem with ESPN's numbers is that they take the whole season too much into consideration.

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Even if we don't take the entire season into consideration, the Buffalo Chips have won 8 of their last 10 games.

There is a giant 20 ft tall colored poster of Paris Austin, along with 11 other PAC 12 players above the front doors to T- Mobile Arena. They just put them up with a crane ladder this am. Each player has their own 20 ft poster
I noticed as I was lookin out the window of my Park MGM resort window

Is that a typo? +20000? I can bet $100 to win twenty grand?

Bearchamp: 'dispositive"? May I hazard a guess: You are a hired gun. (aka--an attorney)

GMP said:

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Is that a typo? +20000? I can bet $100 to win twenty grand?

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Yep...odds are actually 150 to 1 for Cal to win the tournament.

805bear said:

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GMP said:

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Is that a typo? +20000? I can bet $100 to win twenty grand?

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Yep...odds are actually 150 to 1 for Cal to win the tournament.

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Not a typo and not a huge difference though. Shouldnt be a shocker if one book had odds at your 150/1 versus the 200/1 odds quoted by Ben Bloch (the UCLA beat writer for the LA Times). The site below lists odds from two different betting sites. One is 200/1 and the other is 96/1.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/ncaab/2019-pac-12-tournament-odds-washington-listed-favorite/

Interesting little factoid about the seeds of the team's winning the last few P12 tourneys:

Year - winner - seed
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2018 - Arizona - #7
2017 - Arizona - #6
2016 - Oregon - #4
2015 - Arizona - #5
2014 - UCLA - #4

TheSouseFamily said:

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805bear said:

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GMP said:

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Is that a typo? +20000? I can bet $100 to win twenty grand?

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Yep...odds are actually 150 to 1 for Cal to win the tournament.

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Not a typo and not a huge difference though. Shouldnt be a shocker if one book had odds at your 150/1 versus the 200/1 odds quoted by Ben Bloch (the UCLA beat writer for the LA Times). The site below lists odds from two different betting sites. One is 200/1 and the other is 96/1.

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/ncaab/2019-pac-12-tournament-odds-washington-listed-favorite/

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Darn...placed friendly wager yesterday at South Pointe at 150/1...should have looked around more but was busy.
Go Bears.