stu said:
Quote:
What is your criteria for sustainability? Where does the figure 3.25 players every year come from?
To me sustainable means having 13 (decent) scholarship players on the roster every season. If we recruit 3 players each season we'll eventually reach and maintain a 12-player roster. We'll get to 13 by recruiting a 4th player once every 4 seasons, hence the 3.25 average.
Of course in the real world every team has fat and lean recruiting years, injuries, transfers, etc and may not be able to fill all 13 spots with quality players. So maybe an average of 3.0 recruits per year is more realistic. But Cuonzo didn't reach even half of that.
Right now it looks like we'll have 10 scholarship players this fall. With luck all will be healthy and good enough to contribute. The following season we'll lose Austin for sure, possibly also an unhappy or injured player or two. Then with a year on the job our coaches should be able to recruit 3 or 4 new players to get us up to a full complement.
After that the big question will be quality - will these recruits be good enough to win?
The problem is that it is difficult to plan, and difficult to know how many scholarships a coach will have available in any given year. That is compounded by the fact that there are good recruiting classes with many good players available, and there are lean years when there are not as many good players available.
I can't blame the current mess entirely on Cuonzo. I do blame and criticize him for a lot of things, but this problem began way back in the Ben Braun era somewhere, maybe even earlier, with Bozeman. When Bozeman was fired, he left his replacement an outstanding roster. The trouble was they were all seniors. They had quite a run, but at the end of that first Braun season, they all graduated except Sean Marks and a guard, maybe McQueen. The next few years Braun filled the roster with good transfers.
The players which Mike Montgomery inherited from Braun, Randle, Christopher, Theo, and Boykin helped Montgomery win the PAC10 title in 2010, and then all graduated after that season on the same day. Monty had only Jorge and Kamp (returning to the team after recovering from an injury) to build a team around. He did not do a good enough job recruiting in the next few years, and was hit by Crabbe leaving early, plus the unforeseen Amoke situation. In 2013 he then recruited a large class, 5 players, Bird, Mathews, Singer, Rooks, and RMB. This was the nucleus for Cuonzo's first season at Cal. But all those players would be graduating at once, except for Mathews who left after 3 years in a dispute with Cuonzo.
Cuonzo's big mistake, knowing full well that the remaining 4 players would graduate after 3 seasons with him, was to sign one-and-done players Rabb and Brown, which would leave two big holes to fill in the next recruiting class after they had left. He lucked out a little bit, when Rabb decided to stay another year before leaving. What Cuonzo should have done was go full bore after good players, not top 10 or top 20 players, but good 4-star players who would stay 3 or 4 years, to build a base, with the talent evenly distributed between classes and positions as much as possible. Once he had that stable base in his roster, then he could think about bringing in a top 10 player like Rabb or Brown, to make the team even better. I don't know if Cuonzo had it in mind not to stay at Cal, but it sure looks like he went for all the publicity with signing Rabb and Brown, and parlayed that into a lucrative job at Missouri. He could care less about what he left for the next Cal coach and for the Cal fans. He left next to nothing. I think he left less for Jones than any Cal coach left for his replacement, but the problem began back farther than Cuonzo, IMO.
SFCityBear