Here is the Duke fans' view of the game:
Duke WBB hosts California on Thursday 1/16 at 8pm ET on ACCN (streaming link, listen, live stats)
The #16 Blue Devils embrace the unfamiliar for the next week or so, as they face the ACC newcomers in back-to-back-to-back games. First up are the #18 California Golden Bears, who fly to Durham for a Thursday night matchup on the ACC Network. Then Stanford comes to Cameron for a Sunday afternoon game, and next week Duke will travel to Dallas to play SMU on the following Thursday.
According to GoDuke, the Cal game is being promoted as the Black Excellence Game: "Help us celebrate the legacy of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., and honor Black excellence at Duke University. More details to come."
This is the first conference game between Duke and California, but they do have a history. The Blue Devils are 3-1 in the series, most recently winning in Berkeley during the 2013-2014 season, when Duke's roster had a pair of players from Northern California: Chelsea Gray, then a senior, and freshman Oderah Chidom. Gray also beat them in Durham the previous season, when both teams were in the top 10, and the Cal women ended up reaching their first and only Final Four. (New Orleans hosted the 2013 Women's Final Four.
The California Golden Bears are led by sixth-year head coach Charmin Smith, and I know what you're thinking: Charmin Bears?
It's too perfect. Why hasn't Procter & Gamble, the parent company of Charmin bath tissue, given the California WBB program all of the NIL money? I don't know; maybe they have.
Today I learned that Coach Smith, much like Cal men's coach Mark Madsen, went to Stanford. Of course she did; it's an intense Bay Area rivalry, but with some interesting exceptions. In the video below, she talks about going into coaching. Her Stanford coach, Tara VanDerveer, recommended her for an assistant position at Boston College, where she spent a year before returning to Stanford, once they had an opening. She was later hired at California by then-coach (and former Duke player and assistant) Joanne Boyle, stayed on the staff when Lindsey Gottlieb succeeded Coach Boyle, and eventually succeeded Coach Gottlieb. Coach Smith was an assistant under Coach Gottlieb when Cal reached the 2013 Final Four.
Coach Smith had her first winning season (19-15) last year, and she's likely to beat that win total with a 16-2 record so far this season. Their only non-conference blemish came in a Palm Springs multi-team event against Michigan State; they have home wins over Auburn and Alabama, and a neutral win against Arizona. The Bears are 4-1 in the ACC, with a loss at Clemson, their only previous game in the Eastern Time Zone. They have a road win at SMU and home wins against Stanford, NC State, and Florida State.
A look at the Golden Bears roster:
PROBABLE STARTERS
5-10 grad guard Ioanna Krimili #21 (15.8 pts, 2.8 reb, 3.1 ast)
5-10 sophomore guard Lulu Twidale #10 (14.7 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.3 ast)
6-3 senior forward Marta Surez #7 (13.6 pts, 6.4 reb, 2.3 ast)
5-7 grad guard Kayla Williams #4 (11.9 pts, 4.2 reb, 4.6 ast)
6-3 grad center Ugonne (Michelle) Onyiah #0 (10.7 pts, 7.2 reb, 0.5 ast)
TOP RESERVES
5-10 freshman guard Zahra King #3 (3.5 pts, 1.4 reb, 0.6 ast)
6-3 freshman center Gabrielle Abigor #33 (3.0 pts, 2.7 reb, 0.3 ast)
6-1 grad forward Natalia Ackerman #35 (2.8 pts, 3.1 reb, 0.1 ast)
5-11 sophomore guard Anastasia Drosouni #23 (1.5 pts, 0.7 reb, 0.7 ast)
5-11 sophomore guard Gisella Maul #12 (1.5 pts, 1.7 reb, 0.2 ast)
5-11 grad guard Jayda Noble #2 (1.4 pts, 3.8 reb, 1.3 ast)
BENCH PLAYERS
6-1 freshman wing Kamryn Mafua #14 (1.3 pts, 1.0 reb, 0.0 ast)
5-10 freshman guard Sofia Bowes #42 (0.0 Pts, 0.1 Reb, 0.0 Ast)
INJURED/OTHER
5-11 freshman guard Lola Donez #5 (0.7 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.7 ast) -- ankle injury; out for the past month
6-4 senior forward Claudia Langarita #22 -- back injury; could return this season
A number of ACC teams have balanced scoring at the top of their rosters, but Cal is currently the only team in the league to have all five of its starters averaging double-digit points. The backcourt of Ioanna Krimili and Lulu Twidale rank 1st and 2nd in the conference for both 3-point makes and attempts, and both are in the top 10 for 3-point percentage. The third starting guard, Kayla Williams, is in the top 10 for assists and turnovers, while Michelle Onyiah makes the leaderboard for both blocks and personal fouls. Marta Surez, who joins Onyiah in a starting frontcourt of 6-3 players, is one of the ACC's better inside shooters, though she commits a lot of turnovers and fouls. (She's been in foul trouble for 11 of her 16 games, but only fouled out once, in the Michigan State loss.)
The downside of high-scoring starters is that Cal's bench does not contribute many points at all -- there are 8 active reserves, none of whom average even 4 points per game. They are in the bottom 30 for that statistic, which is in sharp contrast to Duke, whose bench scoring is in the top 10.
What else separates the Golden Bears from the Blue Devils, aside from the cross-country distance? Here's a table comparing team stats from Sports Reference and other sources. Bart Torvik sees this game going Duke's way, predicting a final score of 73-66.
Category California (16-2, 4-1 ACC) Duke (13-4, 4-1 ACC)
Points Scored 77.5 (37th nationally) 77.1 (43rd)
Points Allowed 61.4 (122nd) 61.1 (112th)
Scoring Margin (NCAA.com) 16.1 (43rd) 16.0 (44th)
Bench Points (NCAA.com) 12.1 (335th) 32.9 (8th)
Total Rebounds 40.3 (59th) 40.7 (47th)
--- Offensive Rebounds 11.5 (191st) 15.3 (22nd)
--- Defensive Rebounds 28.8 (26th) 25.4 (151st)
Assists 15.5 (79th) 17.4 (27th)
Assist/Turnover Ratio (NCAA.com) 0.89 (128th) 1.06 (58th)
Steals 7.2 (266th) 11.4 (31st)
Blocks 3.7 (86th) 4.3 (46th)
Turnovers 17.4 (225th fewest) 16.4 (166th fewest)
Personal Fouls 16.6 (160th fewest) 17.4 (218th fewest)
Field Goal Percentage 46.2% (35th) 45.8% (42nd)
2-Point FG Percentage 53.6% (24th) 49.5% (90th)
3-Point FG Percentage 37.3% (16th) 35.7% (35th)
Free Throw Percentage 70.3% (198th) 64.8% (317th)
NET Ranking (NCAA.com) #30 #10
--- Strength of Schedule 64th 4th
--- Quad 1 record 2-1 3-3
--- Quad 2 record 2-1 2-1
--- Quad 3 record 4-0 4-0
--- Quad 4 record 8-0 4-0
T-Rank (Bart Torvik) #25 (T-Page) #13 (T-Page)
In October, the NCAA published a PDF file of frequently asked questions for the NET in women's basketball. Quadrants are defined on page 4:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-25, Neutral 1-35, Away 1-45
Quadrant 2: Home 26-55, Neutral 36-65, Away 46-80
Quadrant 3: Home 56-90, Neutral 66-105, Away 81-130
Quadrant 4: Home 91-362, Neutral 106-362, Away 131-362