Virginia Cavaliers preview (link)

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Schroeder71
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UVA is loaded with talent but has only been able to produce a .500 record under HC Amaka "Mox" Agugua-Hamilton. This is her 3rd season running the program and she has sparkled with her recruiting. Her team is young and has not quite put it all together, yet. I watched the entire Virginia at Pitt game and half of the Virginia at Syracuse game, both of which the Cavaliers won. I was impressed with the talent that they possess but not totally sold on their team defense. UVA is 13-13 overall & 5-9 in the ACC. My prediction for tomorrow night's game is: Cal 68, UVA 65.

Combined_WBB_2024-25.pdf

Their leader is their soph point guard, 5-7 Kymora Johnson. She was a McDonald's AA, and a two-time Virginia Gatorade POY. ESPN HoopGurlz rated her a 5-star recruit and the #24 rated prep in the nation. Kymora leads the team in scoring w/ 17.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. She is the top three-point threat with 53 treys made. Johnson is a classic PG with 141 assists while also tops in steals with 47. In the game vs Pittsburgh, the young star erupted for a triple double. She scored 20 points, had 11 assists & 11 rebounds. KJ's matchup against Cal's 5-7 PG Kayla Williams should be fun to watch.

Their #3 offensive threat is 5-8 junior combo guard Paris Clark. She transferred from Arizona after her freshman season. She also was a 2022 McDonald's AA and the New York 2022 Gatorade POY. HoopGurlz rated her 5 stars & rated her the #21 recruit in the country. Paris averages 9.2 points and grabs 4.7 boards per contest. Clark is second in assists w/ 59 and steals with 38. This spark plug has missed six games this season.

Their #2 scorer and leading rebounder is 6-4 senior transfer from Miami, Latasha Lattimore. Lattimore was rated #38 by HoopGurlz in 2021. She contributes 14.6 points and 8.6 boards on average. She is athletic and tall and slender. The Cavalier post has 50 blocks so far. I watched her go off against the 6-4 Pitt center for 30 points and 11 rebounds. She had difficulty scoring inside so she shot from the outside. When the defense began to come out on her, Lattimore drove to the basket (usually to get fouled). She made 14-18 free throws.
I'm concerned that Michelle Onyiah might get in foul trouble early against this opponent.

Their 6-2 frosh SF, Breona Hurd, has been a pleasant surprise. She contributes 9.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Hurd is third in steals w/ 25. Late in the Pitt game, she sprained her ankle.

The final starter is 6-2 soph SG, Olivia McGhee. She was rated #45 in 2023 by ESPN HG. She adds 8.3 points to the offense. McGhee has range and is second in three-point baskets with 43. Olivia is fourth in steals (24).
These five starters have played 25.5 to 36.0 minutes every night.

Their sixth "man" is a 6-3 soph PF, Edessa Noyan, from Sweden. She impressed me with how hard that she plays. She tallies 5.2 points plus 4.5 boards. She is second in blocked shots with 22. The backup guard that is in coach Mox's seven player rotation is a grad transfer, Casey Valenti-Paea, from Australia. The 5-9 SG came from Buffalo. In the Pitt game, she replaced Paris Clark (ill) and scored in double figures.

Women's Basketball Virginia Cavaliers Official Athletic Site

On the season, the Cavaliers have outscored their opponents by approximately two points (70 to 68). They have been in tons of tight games but have not learned how to close games out in the final stanza. Virginia is 8-7 on their home court and has drawn an average attendance of 4250. The reason that I believe that the Bears can overcome this team is that they don't force many TOs (14.8/g). UVA also turns over the ball too much (16.9
per game). The Cavaliers played zone vs Pittsburgh. The only time that I saw them pressure was on a few occasions when the opponent's PG came across mid-court. They forced a few TOs employing a half-court trap.

GO BEARS!



HoopDreams
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Will be key…
RedlessWardrobe
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^
AGREED
SFCALBear72
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You wrote that you are "not totally sold on their team defense" yet you have the Bears scoring only 68 points against them. Hmmmm.

Granted it's a rivalry game but earlier this month (Feb 9), Virgina Tech went into Charlottesville and beat the Cavaliers 87-62. The Hokies were 12-19 on 3-pointers.

Three days earlier, Florida State beat them 101-68 in Charlottesville.

I see more offense for the Bears. I predict 80-64.
Schroeder71
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I have lost confidence in Cal's offense that now scores ten points less than they did prior to the Duke visit. UVA is too fast and athletic for Cal. Btw, Virginia beat Va Tech earlier in the season for a season split. My score matches the Louisville victory at Virginia, 68-65. Jayda Curry was the high scorer for the Cardinals with 19 points
(including 5 treys). Maybe...

The Bears are due to have a good shooting game on the road. We'll see which one of us is closer on our offensive production. GO BEARS!
RedlessWardrobe
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SFCALBear72 said:

You wrote that you are "not totally sold on their team defense" yet you have the Bears scoring only 68 points against them. Hmmmm.

Granted it's a rivalry game but earlier this month (Feb 9), Virgina Tech went into Charlottesville and beat the Cavaliers 87-62. The Hokies were 12-19 on 3-pointers.

Three days earlier, Florida State beat them 101-68 in Charlottesville.

I see more offense for the Bears. I predict 80-64.
Very refreshing to see a prediction that has more to it than just statistics and generalities. I get where you're coming from, but at this point based on our current inconsistency, expecting a 16 point win on the road against a conference opponent might be stretching it a bit. In fact, some on this board might consider any kind of victory nothing short of a miracle - due to the impossible task of flying east to a road game for a Thursday night game. It's become the popular excuse for losing here anytime we lose one on a road Thursday night.
Finnish Oski
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Quote:

some on this board might consider any kind of victory nothing short of a miracle - due to the impossible task of flying east to a road game for a Thursday night game. It's become the popular excuse for losing here anytime we lose one on a road Thursday night
Oh good this argument has re-surfaced. It'll be so much fun if opposing sides on this issue beat this dead horse some more.
blungld
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Will take any kind of a road win...and would love to see the team showing the can pull it together and peak for the post season--less careless turnovers, more productive bench rotation, less fatigue, and return of shooting touch. We are running out of games to return to form. The bench seems much more able to contribute 6 weeks ago, I liked what I saw of maul and wonder why she doesn't get more minutes.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
gljone
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blungld said:

Will take any kind of a road win...and would love to see the team showing the can pull it together and peak for the post season--less careless turnovers, more productive bench rotation, less fatigue, and return of shooting touch. We are running out of games to return to form. The bench seems much more able to contribute 6 weeks ago, I liked what I saw of maul and wonder why she doesn't get more minutes.
I'd like to see the first two (less careless TOs and more bench production) because they will affect the last two.

However, the bench has to play well when they get their chances. I am hopeful this happens. Otherwise it's the same 6-player rotation with some others sprinkled in for limited minutes.

I see the Bears having to grind games out from now on. Each game is fast becoming 'the most important game' of the season.
annarborbear
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I have been wondering if the team may now play better with less pressure since an NCAA bid seems certain following the past two victories. Yes, we would like more wins and a better seeding. But after five years of not making it, the coaches and players had to have been feeling a huge amount of pressure to get us over that basic threshold.
RedlessWardrobe
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It seems like when we are able to use Tali for a few minutes it makes a little difference. Hopefully she has recovered from her injury. I guess it's not a conicidence that our two most crucial bench players, Tali and Jayda are our most experienced. Lets hope at the very least that our team stays healthy down the stretch.
gljone
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RedlessWardrobe said:

It seems like when we are able to use Tali for a few minutes it makes a little difference. Hopefully she has recovered from her injury. I guess it's not a conicidence that our two most crucial bench players, Tali and Jayda are our most experienced. Lets hope at the very least that our team stays healthy down the stretch.
Agree - having post depth is a must. Ackerman seems to be in the right place at the right time. She plays with energy too. I think she is a player Charmin trusts to provide quality minutes depending on the matchups.
RedlessWardrobe
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1st quarter over. Hope we can play tighter defense moving forward.
Schroeder71
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After 4 minutes of the 2nd Qtr, it appears that UVA has taken away Cal's three-point shots. It also appears that the Cavaliers are on fire with 5-10 on their treys. Virginia held Cal to ten points in the 2nd quarter after twenty in the first.

The technical called on Marta Suarez was a big call and helped open up a five point gap at halftime. The refs have only called a single foul on the home team. Cal has seven and had to have Michelle Onyiah & Kayla Williams sit out basically one quarter. Lattimore has four shot blocks against Onyiah & Suarez. Bears are intimidated to take the ball inside. Lulu Twidale hit the game's opening trey and has disappeared since then. Krimili hit two long range bombs but appears really flustered by how the fast guards of UVA are.
ncbears
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Missing the close ones - sigh. 27-22 Virginia leads.
ncbears
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Why is Suarez wearing 24?
ncbears
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Such a costly mistake by Suarez - gave Virginia 4 points.
Was Virginia really not called for a single foul in that quarter.

Neither team shot well that quarter (13-8). But, the Bears need to finish when they get the ball down low!
blungld
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This team continues to miss the bunnies and doesn't go strong directly to the glass so defender has to foul. They shoot a lot of one-handed rushed "fade away" layups.
The Bear will not quilt, the Bear will not dye!
RedlessWardrobe
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Agreed, Bears blowing some easy shots. Also wondering why near the end of the half at 5 seconds we didn't give a foul. We had one to use.
Shocky1
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why is michelle still trying to set screens 20+ feet from the basket, half of her fouls are from the 3 point line??

that's coaching

onyiah misses half the 1st quarter & the cavs turn the game around, when michelle goes to the bench she gets high 5s from the staff but nobody discusses the dumb azz foul, is her fouling so ingrained in the culture of the program that no coaching/development takes place??

that's coaching

marta gets an undisciplined tech that results in a 4 point turnaround, no getting in her face from anybody on the cal staff, is the victim mentality by the mean refs so ingrained in the culture of the program that no coaching/development takes place??

that's coaching

the cavs comeback takes place with noble tryna guard the 5 again which has proven time & time again to not work

that's coaching

turnovers with balls thrown outta bounds with nobody around, these are basketball plays that are capably done at montera middle school...there's no consultation after these turnovers by any of the staff, turnovers are clearly acceptable & ingrained in the culture of this year's team

hopefully cal is gonna bear down in the 2nd half, they are their own worst enemy against a mediocre acc team with basically 2 special players & not much else except hustle/disciplined basketball

and that's coaching too
ncbears
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RedlessWardrobe said:

Agreed, Bears blowing some easy shots. Also wondering why near the end of the half at 5 seconds we didn't give a foul. We had one to use.
The Bears did play good defense and Virginia missed - but the Bears didn't corral the rebound.....sigh.
But your point is well taken!
And due to the technical foul, Smith had the time to instruct the team what to do.
BearBint
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KAYLA!!!

Now I get a gin and It.
"Don't get distracted, myself. Don't get distracted." Self-talk from a young relative
ncbears
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in just over three minutes, Cal has 14 points - which is more than all of the second quarter.
Virginia with four turnovers - they only had 3 in the whole first half.

And Virginia with three fouls so far- as opposed to none in the second.

ncbears
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17-0 point run to start the third quarter!
(But Onyiah with three fouls after another too aggressive positioning)
Schroeder71
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The 17-0 run is the best that I've seen Cal play since prior to Duke. Too bad Onyiah picked up her 3rd PF. Everyone has been contributing during this blitzkrieg.

UVA 12-0 run to tie it.
Shocky1
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best charmin adjustment of the season:

the bears are NOT playing fast which often leads to unforced turnovers, just surgically moving the ball with quick passing & wide open 3 point shooting

now a 17 point lead!!

and that's just good coaching

slowing it down/taking our time (we are not cocaine bears)#
ncbears
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and the Bears speed it up - misses/a turnover and suddenly Virginia is scoring
Now - 51-49 with 2:11 to go in third...
ncbears
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Shocky1 said:

best charmin adjustment of the season:

the bears are NOT playing fast which often leads to unforced turnovers, just surgically moving the ball with quick passing & wide open 3 point shooting

now a 17 point lead!!

and that's just good coaching

slowing it down/taking our time (we are not cocaine bears)#
Biggest lead was 12 in the spurt.
RedlessWardrobe
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Virginia is now extending. We need to spread the floor for Kayla
ncbears
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RedlessWardrobe said:

Virginia is now extending. We need to spread the floor for Kayla
And this all happened with Onyiah on the bench.
She's back in now though.
ncbears
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Onyiah makes two with 40 seconds to go - ties it at 54 and goes to the bench to protect against a fourth foul

[odd that Abigor had a minute and Ackerman none while Onyiah was on bench)
ncbears
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whew. Cal leads going into the fourth 56-55 on a beautiful pass to a driving Twidale. .
A bit of a roller coaster ride was that quarter!
Schroeder71
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This is a crazy game! How badly does Cal want this road win? We'll see. First & third quarters are all offense and the second and the fourth appear to feature defense. Very strange game.

Cal outplayed Virginia and captured the crucial fourth quarter, 20-15. Bears earn 1st round bye in ACC Tournament. Overall-everyone played well tonight. Great game to watch! Cal only committed 13 turnovers and actually had more FG attempts. Cal team executed 20 assists and controlled the boards (42-31). They also prevailed in long distance baskets, 13-8! Cal deserved the victory. I predicted 68-65 but the Bears found their offense, 76-70. GO BEARS!
3Cats4CAL
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Continue to be under-impressed with both Donez and Abigor-at this point both looking like 2nd off the bench and not boding well for next season. And the rest of the bench not of much use.
ncbears
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I missed Onyiah picking up her fourth foul... but this could be trouble for Bears.
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