Not good.

I thought this year was going to be good and next year was going be tough. Even this year does not look so good (1-3 start in Pac-12, although all close loses). And, that is despite the fact we have KA (Double Double Machine) this year.

Remember, we still got 4 regular season games against top 12 teams in the country (UO, Stanford and OSU) and a bunch of other tough games left on our schedule this year.

Senior leaders KA and AT are gone next years and, to the best of my knowledge, no one comparable is coming in.

Almost everybody in Pac-12 is loading up with talent. The talent coming in the last three years to UO, OSU, Stanford, UCLA, USC, ASU, UW and even U of A compared to Cal makes one wonder what is LG doing on the recruiting front.

Next year is not going to be tough without KA, AT and others.

Currently, the best thing for LG is the current MBB coach's failures which is keeping the spotlight away from LG. Most likely, that will not be the case next year.

Let us hope LG can pull it all together this year and bring in a few key players ready to contribute for next season.

Go Bears!

One small coaching point: I've read that Coach G. spends some time discussing basketball with Steve Kerr. I remember him saying the Warriors pass up a good shot to get a better shot. That's fine for the Warriors, who have plenty of good shooters and can pass the ball around for 24 seconds without losing it. However on our team the extra passes often lead to a worse shot or no shot at all. Perhaps we should consider pulling the trigger when we get a good shot. And if we miss KA is one of the best offensive rebounders in the game.

Reminds me of a philosophical point in computer programming (with ancient origins): Better is the enemy of good enough.

I don't think you can change an entire coaching system any way by spending a few hours with Steve Kerr. She is friendly with Gino. Better to take a sabbatical in Storrs for a year and learn from the best in women's basketball. She is also starting to look more stressed and tired, and could use a break during this period of motherhood.

Didn't Charli Turner Thorn (the coach who has beaten LG 4 straight times in Tempe) take a year off just recently when she had her baby?

Go Bears!

calbear80 said:

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Didn't Charli Turner Thorn (the coach who has beaten LG 4 straight timed in Tempe) take a year off just recently when she had her baby?

Go Bears!

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Under my scenario. I wouldn't have her come back here. We need to start over. I would go with an associate coach from a good program like Oregon State, or a mid-major guy like the coach at St. Mary's. Given that we have less than $150,000 in annual ticket revenue and the PAC12 now has so many good programs, I would go with someone who can produce an entertaining and well-coached, but not dominant, team, and one who might make more use of good but not great local players. Or possibly a major donor could step forward and endow our head coaching position. At Stanford, not only is Tara's position endowed, but even the associate head coach's position is endowed. You need that kind of support if you want to put big money into today's women's basketball.

annarborbear said:

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It has not been going well for Lindsay. And with recruiting tapering off, the future probably is going to be even tougher.

Lindsay is a smart person, but she became a head coach too early. She did not play for a major basketball program in college. And then her only real coaching mentor was Joanne Boyle, and her offensive thinking still reflects primarily Joanne's approaches,

I think for her own sake, and for her future career success, she should take a couple of years off. Spend time with her kid. Do some tv work. And find a couple of senior coaching mentors who can open up her mind about the game. Then return to the game with fresh energy and a different perspective.

Leaves some money on the table, but could really pay off over the longer term.

---

Good insight! Boyles never had the ability to put together a balanced team, rather she just recruited athletes. Very superficial with little real basketball comprehension. Her player evaluation ignored the intangibles that make up a good player. Her evaluation of Chelsea Gray was that she was a tweener swing guard based purely on her height and seeming lack of speed. It took her two years to figure out that Clarendon had a two guard mentality and should not have been running the point. Boyle would never even have considered Sabrina because she would not have been athletic enough for her at the point.

She was like so many other women's coaches of her era who got jobs because they were ex players and PC required teams to give women priority. Being a player does not necessary make someone a good coach, especially when the their experience was not reflective of the quickly changing dynamics that the women's game has undergone. There are plenty of good women coaches out there, but they are good because they have the necessary skills not because they are women who came up in the game when it was in it's infancy. The womens game is becoming more like the men's game with time and that is what makes it easier for men and the newer generation of womens coaches.

I would agree with you that Gottleib has the intelligence to be at least decent if not good coach with the proper mentoring and a time to absorb what she would be learning.

I think this would be an appropriate year to let go of Gottlieb.

And a silver lining might be that there's a really good potential replacement: Lisa Fortier @ Gonzaga.

In her first three years as HC she was 79-21 and this year they are an amazing 16-1 (only losing to #1 Notre Dame) with wins over Stanford and Rutgers. This is despite the fact that I believe their star player last season Jill Barta decided to forgo her final year of eligibility.

She's been at Gonzaga for a long time (previously an assistant) and might not have tons of experience/connections with the usual recruiting pool that Cal works, but she's from Northern California (though not the Bay Area).

Fortier led the Zags to the Sweet 16 in her first year and made the NCAA's her other two seasons at the helm.

Boyle's last season was a disaster but I don't totally agree with your assessment.

Though I agree Ionescu would not have been Boyle's typical flavor of recruit, I think she obviously would've recruited her. What she wouldn't have done, however, is put all her eggs in one basket with recruiting her (which Gottlieb more or less did).

I agree Clarendon at the PG spot was not ideal (though it seems LC has had success playing some PG as a pro). But I'm pretty sure she knew that. It was stated that she was still looking for a PG which is why she took Avi Cohen (after missing out on McD's AA PG's from out of state: one opted for Kentucky the other Georgia IIRC). Boyle might've had a PG if there was room to take Kiki Moore in '09 but there was not. She took Eliza Pierre but Eliza was the worst shooter I've ever seen in Pac-12 history when she started out.

Boyle liked athletes, but her first recruit was Lauren Greif. She also really valued shooters, hence why she took Rachelle Federico and Mikayla Lyles.

I really don't think Gottlieb's recruiting approach is appropriate for Cal. It works for UConn, but it makes no sense for Cal.

It's a tough business in the Pac-12, as almost every team in the league has decided to take women's basketball reasonably seriously -- which means hiring good coaches and I'm guessing, upping recruiting budgets.

And of course there's a lot of luck involved, in recruiting and in injuries, but if any program wants to be competitive, the bottom line is results -- and Lindsay (who's a quality person and a reasonably good coach) just hasn't gotten the job done.

That said, will Cal buy her out? I can't really see it. Next year's starting lineup will likely be

PG Kianna Smith
W Jaelyn Brown
W McKenzie Forbes
W Alaysia Styles?
P C.J. West

which features a McDonald's All-American and some decent players. (There is no depth that I can see, though ...)

Still, in the Pac-12, that doesn't look good enough to compete for a finish in the top half, no matter who's the coach. Ideally, if it's clear to the powers-that-be that a change must be made, the sooner the better (for recruiting purposes), but waiting a year saves several hundred thousand dollars, which is not a trivial sum.

And who knows? Maybe the Bears will catch lightning in a bottle and have a magical season that inspires recruits, locally and elsewhere.

ClayK said:

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It's a tough business in the Pac-12, as almost every team in the league has decided to take women's basketball reasonably seriously -- which means hiring good coaches and I'm guessing, upping recruiting budgets.

And of course there's a lot of luck involved, in recruiting and in injuries, but if any program wants to be competitive, the bottom line is results -- and Lindsay (who's a quality person and a reasonably good coach) just hasn't gotten the job done.

That said, will Cal buy her out? I can't really see it. Next year's starting lineup will likely be

PG Kianna Smith
W Jaelyn Brown
W McKenzie Forbes
W Alaysia Styles?
P C.J. West

which features a McDonald's All-American and some decent players. (There is no depth that I can see, though ...)

Still, in the Pac-12, that doesn't look good enough to compete for a finish in the top half, no matter who's the coach. Ideally, if it's clear to the powers-that-be that a change must be made, the sooner the better (for recruiting purposes), but waiting a year saves several hundred thousand dollars, which is not a trivial sum.

And who knows? Maybe the Bears will catch lightning in a bottle and have a magical season that inspires recruits, locally and elsewhere.

---

We are not in a financial position for a $1.5 million buyout. That is why I hope Lindsay will realize that it is in her own personal and professional interests to take some time off to relax and re-tool.

ClayK said:

---

It's a tough business in the Pac-12, as almost every team in the league has decided to take women's basketball reasonably seriously -- which means hiring good coaches and I'm guessing, upping recruiting budgets.

And of course there's a lot of luck involved, in recruiting and in injuries, but if any program wants to be competitive, the bottom line is results -- and Lindsay (who's a quality person and a reasonably good coach) just hasn't gotten the job done.

That said, will Cal buy her out? I can't really see it. Next year's starting lineup will likely be

PG Kianna Smith
W Jaelyn Brown
W McKenzie Forbes
W Alaysia Styles?
P C.J. West

which features a McDonald's All-American and some decent players. (There is no depth that I can see, though ...)

Still, in the Pac-12, that doesn't look good enough to compete for a finish in the top half, no matter who's the coach. Ideally, if it's clear to the powers-that-be that a change must be made, the sooner the better (for recruiting purposes), but waiting a year saves several hundred thousand dollars, which is not a trivial sum.

And who knows? Maybe the Bears will catch lightning in a bottle and have a magical season that inspires recruits, locally and elsewhere.

---

Two McDonald's All-Americans - Smith and Forbes.

I expect Guard Cailyn Crocker to come in and compete for some serious playing time.

Crocker could easily replace Styles in that proposed starting lineup, but she is not a good shooter at all.

Then again, Styles has only taken one three all year ...

I would actually like to see what another coach could do with that line-up. There is enough basketball IQ among that group to run an Oregon State-style offensive system. But probably not enough size, quickness and athleticism to play man-to-man on the defensive end. Also, If West has physical or fouling issues, you would have to be able to get something out of Chen Yue.

I know the world is changing, but it seems that women's basketball coaches rarely get fired. They have long tenures.
Cal did fire Stanley after 4 years (35-75) - and Stanley has not been head coach at a college since.
Cal also did fire Horstmeyer after 4 years (42-73).
But LG has had only one losing season.

ncbears said:

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I know the world is changing, but it seems that women's basketball coaches rarely get fired. They have long tenures.
Cal did fire Stanley after 4 years (35-75) - and Stanley has not been head coach at a college since.
Cal also did fire Horstmeyer after 4 years (42-73).
But LG has had only one losing season.

---

If it is going to be Lindsay for the longer-term, then I would give her a year's sabbatical with Gino, and let her return after that. We will need some way to get some constructive change into this stagnant program, especially at the salaries we are paying. One more year with no change would not make any sense at this point.

Along with all the discussion of salaries does anyone know what we budget for recruiting? I'm sure we don't reach as far as Stanford does.

stu said:

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Along with all the discussion of salaries does anyone know what we budget for recruiting? I'm sure we don't reach as far as Stanford does.

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You can check out all of our Athletic Department financial statements from 2004-2017 on the Calbears.com site under Athletics- Finances. Interestingly, we had $70,000 in recruiting expenses in 2004, which had only risen to $92,000 by 2017. However, our combined coaches salaries during that period increased from $400,000 to $1.5 million. That probably makes sense, as there is no substitute for winning in promoting recruiting, at least among top players. Gino's recruiting budget probably consists of buying a few lunches when prospective players stop by. Twitter and Texting is also a lot cheaper than phone calls from olden days.

I have tried to get some financial information on the Stanford program's financials, but as a private institution, they don't seem to disclose anything. However, with their name and success, it is probably not a hard sell to have to make if a recruit has the grades.

SFCALBear72 said:

---

ClayK said:

---

It's a tough business in the Pac-12, as almost every team in the league has decided to take women's basketball reasonably seriously -- which means hiring good coaches and I'm guessing, upping recruiting budgets.

And of course there's a lot of luck involved, in recruiting and in injuries, but if any program wants to be competitive, the bottom line is results -- and Lindsay (who's a quality person and a reasonably good coach) just hasn't gotten the job done.

That said, will Cal buy her out? I can't really see it. Next year's starting lineup will likely be

PG Kianna Smith
W Jaelyn Brown
W McKenzie Forbes
W Alaysia Styles?
P C.J. West

which features a McDonald's All-American and some decent players. (There is no depth that I can see, though ...)

Still, in the Pac-12, that doesn't look good enough to compete for a finish in the top half, no matter who's the coach. Ideally, if it's clear to the powers-that-be that a change must be made, the sooner the better (for recruiting purposes), but waiting a year saves several hundred thousand dollars, which is not a trivial sum.

And who knows? Maybe the Bears will catch lightning in a bottle and have a magical season that inspires recruits, locally and elsewhere.

---

Two McDonald's All-Americans - Smith and Forbes.

I expect Guard Cailyn Crocker to come in and compete for some serious playing time.

---

Cayton.

annarborbear said:

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You can check out all of our Athletic Department financial statements from 2004-2017 on the Calbears.com site under Athletics- Finances. Interestingly, we had $70,000 in recruiting expenses in 2004, which had only risen to $92,000 by 2017.

---

Thanks for that. To an uninformed observer such as myself that seems shockingly low. I'd guess we'd be traveling all over the planet for scouting and home visits and such. Perhaps we're relying more on scouting services than on first-hand evaluation, which could explain why we never seem to recruit good under-the-radar players. Or perhaps it's our all-or-nothing recruiting strategy. Dunno.

And where does the likes of Kelly Sopak fit in with all of this since he seems to have some influence.

I would love to hear an explanation for it also. I am sure we must send out initial feelers to a lot of good players, and then try to follow up with those people who want more information. We must also attend the big tournaments to show our flag. What must really be frustrating is spending literally years on local prospects like Sabrina and Angel Jackson and then coming up empty. That is more of an investment of valuable time than money.

annarborbear said:

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I would love to hear an explanation for it also.

---

I know Coach G. doesn't talk about recruits but she might be willing to say something about the strategy, methods, and geographic scope of our recruiting.

Am wondering if Layshia has any interest in a coaching career. ASU has added Bryann January to their staff while she is still an active WNBA player. Being contacted by an active WNBA player might help in generating initial interest from recruits. She could also share with our players what she has learned under her pro coaches.

blungld said:

---

SFCALBear72 said:

---

ClayK said:

---

It's a tough business in the Pac-12, as almost every team in the league has decided to take women's basketball reasonably seriously -- which means hiring good coaches and I'm guessing, upping recruiting budgets.

And of course there's a lot of luck involved, in recruiting and in injuries, but if any program wants to be competitive, the bottom line is results -- and Lindsay (who's a quality person and a reasonably good coach) just hasn't gotten the job done.

That said, will Cal buy her out? I can't really see it. Next year's starting lineup will likely be

PG Kianna Smith
W Jaelyn Brown
W McKenzie Forbes
W Alaysia Styles?
P C.J. West

which features a McDonald's All-American and some decent players. (There is no depth that I can see, though ...)

Still, in the Pac-12, that doesn't look good enough to compete for a finish in the top half, no matter who's the coach. Ideally, if it's clear to the powers-that-be that a change must be made, the sooner the better (for recruiting purposes), but waiting a year saves several hundred thousand dollars, which is not a trivial sum.

And who knows? Maybe the Bears will catch lightning in a bottle and have a magical season that inspires recruits, locally and elsewhere.

---

Two McDonald's All-Americans - Smith and Forbes.

I expect Guard Cailyn Crocker to come in and compete for some serious playing time.

---

Cayton.

---

Yes, Mi'Cole Cayton too. Cailyn Crocker, from Mater Dei HS, will be a freshman next season.

Most of the Cal fans here focus on Gottlieb's lack of an efficient offense. I feel that the defense this year is the weakness of the team:

DEFENSE: Pac 12 rankings
______________________

12th in 3 point FG % defense (33.8%)

9th in scoring defense (63.9 ppg)

11th in turnovers forced (11.8/g)

9th in assists allowed (13.4/g)

10th in steals per game (5.3)

11th in personal fouls commited (17.5/g)

NOT very impressive...
GO BEARS!

Schroeder71 said:

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Most of the Cal fans here focus on Gottlieb's lack of an efficient offense. I feel that the defense this year is the weakness of the team:

DEFENSE: Pac 12 rankings
______________________

12th in 3 point FG % defense (33.8%)

9th in scoring defense (63.9 ppg)

11th in turnovers forced (11.8/g)

9th in assists allowed (13.4/g)

10th in steals per game (5.3)

11th in personal fouls commited (17.5/g)

NOT very impressive...
GO BEARS!

---

Last in 3 point FG% defense is not surprising.

In her half-time interview, the ASU coach said that her advice to her team for the second half would be "spread it out more because we can drive around them".

Schroeder71 said:

---

Most of the Cal fans here focus on Gottlieb's lack of an efficient offense. I feel that the defense this year is the weakness of the team:

DEFENSE: Pac 12 rankings

---

I agree defense is an issue but I see these numbers on the Pac-12 site.

For conference games only, not that meaningful with only 4 played, but against other teams in the middle:

Opp FG%: Cal #6
Opp 3pt%: Cal #12
Reb margin: Cal #4
Opp Ast: Cal #5
Opp TO: Cal #11
Blk: Cal #4

IMHO neither particularly good nor particularly bad.

wbbilluminati said:

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Boyle's last season was a disaster but I don't totally agree with your assessment.

Though I agree Ionescu would not have been Boyle's typical flavor of recruit, I think she obviously would've recruited her. What she wouldn't have done, however, is put all her eggs in one basket with recruiting her (which Gottlieb more or less did).

I agree Clarendon at the PG spot was not ideal (though it seems LC has had success playing some PG as a pro). But I'm pretty sure she knew that. It was stated that she was still looking for a PG which is why she took Avi Cohen (after missing out on McD's AA PG's from out of state: one opted for Kentucky the other Georgia IIRC). Boyle might've had a PG if there was room to take Kiki Moore in '09 but there was not. She took Eliza Pierre but Eliza was the worst shooter I've ever seen in Pac-12 history when she started out.

---

It is one thing to recruit a local player but a lot depends on how much enthusiasm is shown for that player. Sure she would have recruited her but Sabrina would have known she just probably intended her to be a shooting guard. Her PG to fit a certain criteria. They needed to be smaller and quicker.

As to Carendon, when she was running the point the first two years she played like she was a shooting guard on every possession. Against Texas A & M in one six possession series not one other Cal player even touched the ball. Ironically in her Jr year, once she was slotted as a shooting guard, some sort of light came on and she became an unselfish ball distributor racking up assists. As the off guard she played like a true and quality point there after. She always had the skill just not the mind set.

calbear80 said:

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Didn't Charli Turner Thorn (the coach who has beaten LG 4 straight times in Tempe) take a year off just recently when she had her baby?

Go Bears!

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You're correct.

No, CTT took a sabbatical to spend time with three sons 8,10 and 12 (and hubby), not babies. http://www.espn.com/espnw/womens-college-basketball/article/7475949/arizona-state-charli-turner-thorne-enjoying-sabbatical-shootaround

In all honesty though, sabbaticals are very rare. And CTT did not take one because she was on the hot seat. And I believe it resulted in a couple relatively high profile decommitments (recall one changed to USC but did not get cleared by ASU so had to sit out a year despite never being enrolled at ASU). And there was a bit of a rebuilding period when she returned.

The idea of a sabbatical makes little sense to me ...

You lose a year of recruiting (coaching the Olympics in the '90s set Tara VanDerveer back for several years), you lose continuity with the players, and really, what are you gaining? Saying, "Oh, Lindsay could go watch other coaches" or whatever implies that she's not all-in already.

She's an experienced professional who's had success few coaches can match, and it's unlikely 12 months meditating on Geno's game-coaching will change much.

It would seem to me, here on the outside, that the biggest thing that needs to change is the style and manner of recruiting, which has not delivered a steady flow of talent. The second would be better game-planning and late-game execution, and again, from the outside, it would seem to me that new blood on the staff might be the best way to go.

So a question: Are the assistants on multi-year deals as well?

ClayK said:

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The idea of a sabbatical makes little sense to me ...

You lose a year of recruiting (coaching the Olympics in the '90s set Tara VanDerveer back for several years), you lose continuity with the players, and really, what are you gaining? Saying, "Oh, Lindsay could go watch other coaches" or whatever implies that she's not all-in already.

She's an experienced professional who's had success few coaches can match, and it's unlikely 12 months meditating on Geno's game-coaching will change much.

It would seem to me, here on the outside, that the biggest thing that needs to change is the style and manner of recruiting, which has not delivered a steady flow of talent. The second would be better game-planning and late-game execution, and again, from the outside, it would seem to me that new blood on the staff might be the best way to go.

So a question: Are the assistants on multi-year deals as well?

---

I was curious about your take on this and was looking forward to your post.

Agree with the things you think need to change. There are more but this is a good start.

New blood on the staff may be the best way to go as the alternatives (sabbatical, buy-out) are not realistic. I guess the question has to be asked whether the assistant coaches are not getting good results because they are not competent or because they are stuck with doing what their head coach tells them to do.

One thing for sure - everyone (especially LG) thinks this a really good team. The fact that the Pac-12 coaches picked this team to finish fourth is good confirmation. The problem is not the players.