... said:
... Does JK use a search firm and then make a decision like Fox (which may work), or the process of asking around and picking based on word of mouth and Cal fit (like with Johnson). If it is the later, I see in no particular order:
1) Smith (former Cal)
2) Felton
3) Paye
4) Gross
5) Rueck
6- Perry
7) Langley (success at an academic school like Rice, and I believe she knows Knowlton)
8) Fortier
9) Cambell (male issue)
...
Here are more the search firm types:
Norman
Cheek
Ivey (great recruiter supposedly)
Johnston (male issue)
Drake coach
FSU coach
Kelly Bond White
Hatchell (a total Mark Fox type hire)
Smith (Elon coach (bad last season after two surprising NCAA appearances)) ...
When I compiled my list, I played two roles: the search committee (of one) and the candidate. It was easy being the search committee - thumbs up or thumbs down for every head coach. It was much harder being the candidate, since I had to figure out whether she could possibly say yes to Cal. The fact that it was June made it a lot harder to get to yes. If she said no, I left her off the list because as I said before, I didn't want to give any false hopes.
Here's my rationale for each of the head coaches on your list:
Gross (UC Davis): Probably not but maybe, so I put her on the list.
Rueck (Oregon State): Situation at his alma mater in terms of on-court performance and fan support is way too good to even think about re-starting at Cal.
Langley (Rice): Rice is just starting to get good with some very good potential for next season, so I can't see her short-circuiting the process. She might start to think about moving up at the end of next season after Erica Ogwumike graduates. But how does she know Knowlton??? That might tip her to yes.
Fortier (Gonzaga): I already explained why I couldn't get her to yes.
Johnston (South Dakota State): He is a prime example of what I referred to as institutional or geographical loyalty. After all the times he has said no to other and geographically closer teams, why would a call from Cal in the middle of June suddenly make him say yes? I can't see it.
Baranczyk (Drake): I already explained my tortured reasoning to put her on the list (barely).
FSU coach (?): Do you mean Jamie White of Fresno State? My search committee said no (early success was with inherited players, give her credit for some later success but not good enough considering it's in the weakening Mountain West). If you mean Sue Semrau at Florida State, why would she step down to Cal?
Hatchell (retired from NC): I said Knowlton would rather not explain why he took someone who left her previous job under a cloud, so my search committee said no.
Smith (Elon): I said Knowlton also wouldn't want a coach coming off a bad season, so the search committee said no. Plus if you watch the games, the CAA just isn't as strong as it used to be so I think she's gotten too much credit at least up until now.
I listed some assistants on my list only because I thought people would ask why I didn't list any, not because I actually wanted to talk about any of them. To me, assistants are Plan B and very often a sucker's bet (a fan can end up thinking she's a good head coaching prospect based on one nice interview, a fawning article, an appealing sideline demeanor and/or the self-serving online bio).
But yes, I recognize your listed assistants beyond Charmin and Kai. The big issue it's June. The time to jump off a staff is earlier, not in the middle of recruiting season (yes we have 3 more quiet weeks but still ...) So it becomes an even bigger crapshoot to figure who would make a good head coach AND how personally committed she may feel to her head coach once she signs on for the year. I will acknowledge that Shannon Perry of UCLA superficially seems very appealing and has no obvious pre-destination, but others have either a likelier destination than Cal or are in the pure guesswork category. I will admit I was shocked that Bond-White interviewed with Witchita State a couple of years back since I assumed she was Gary Blair's heir apparent, but I still think she's the likeliest heir.