Baseball regionals chances?

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MoragaBear
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In reply to Baller4 • 4:41p, 5/21/24
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Baller4 said:
MoragaBear said:
BearSD said:
My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Sweep means nothing when you lose the next series to Stanford. The UOP wins don't do anything when it comes to RPI. They will need to win the tournament. The Pac has always been screwed when it comes to selection. The second year OSU won the NC. As I recall, Cal had a better record and took the series agains OSU and Stanford, who took their series agains OSU. Cal was passed for a selection to a regional. They will take the top 3 teams as it stands now. ASU has the same record and has the sweep of Cal. ASU has the series win agains U of A, and Cal was swept. RPI is what kills everything. It will be interesting if this program even has a chance when it comes to the ACC. Same with Stanford. RPI should be thrown out. All the colleges in this area will not help Cal or Stanford in RPI for the ACC.
ASU is only 7 games over .500 and just lost to Stanford today. Cal took the season series against Stanford, even if they lost the one after the OSU sweep. Cal is 34-18 and they also swept #37 RPI UConn and have won 18 of the last 22.

Cal's 65 RPI is a joke. They've continued to drop when they've won games and other teams have lost to good teams and had their RPI rise. The RPI is a highly-flawed metric and those making projections seem to be almost entirely relying on it to do so. Florida is #24 with a 28-26 record because they play in the SEC. Ole Miss has an overall losing record but they're 32 in RPI. Xavier is 29-25 and they're 38 in RPI. Auburn is 27-26 and they're 45. It's a joke.

If Cal doesn't get in, it will be a crime.
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eastcoastcal
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In reply to MoragaBear • 5:38p, 5/21/24
100%!! My friend explained RPI to me the other day and I was aghast at how flawed of a metric it is. I can't believe that rankings are so highly predicated on such a deeply flawed metric!! We should absolutely get in, especially with an opening win in the Pac-12 tournament.
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OBear073akaSMFan
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7:00p, 5/21/24
Both USC and Furds upset higher seeded teams. Bottomline Cal needs to still win some games.
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NarangS19
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In reply to MoragaBear • 8:08p, 5/21/24
It's the same issue in basketball with the NET, even the commissioners are talking about it. The teams beat up on weak teams in non-con, beefing up their ratings, and when they play each other, the rankings don't take a hit, as all the games are considered Q1. It's stupid, and definitely needs to be changed.
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GoldenB
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8:54p, 5/21/24
Cal up 12-0 top of 7th against Washington. Big game against AZ Thursday
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MoragaBear
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9:06p, 5/21/24
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With a blowout win in the P12 tourney opener to move to 35-18, it would be absolutely criminal to leave Cal out of regionals. Besides sweeping 13 RPI OSU and 37 RPI UConn, they also beat 42 RPI Kansas State and 61 RPI Georgetown and have won 19 of the last 23.
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Baller4
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In reply to Alkiadt • 9:26p, 5/21/24
Alkiadt said:
Baller4 said:
MoragaBear said:
BearSD said:
My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Sweep means nothing when you lose the next series to Stanford. The UOP wins don't do anything when it comes to RPI. They will need to win the tournament. The Pac has always been screwed when it comes to selection. The second year OSU won the NC. As I recall, Cal had a better record and took the series agains OSU and Stanford, who took their series agains OSU. Cal was passed for a selection to a regional. They will take the top 3 teams as it stands now. ASU has the same record and has the sweep of Cal. ASU has the series win agains U of A, and Cal was swept. RPI is what kills everything. It will be interesting if this program even has a chance when it comes to the ACC. Same with Stanford. RPI should be thrown out. All the colleges in this area will not help Cal or Stanford in RPI for the ACC.


ASU just lost to Stanford….
Ease up tiger! Don't throw a party yet, maybe if they get by U of A!
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JimSox
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9:27p, 5/21/24
Tonight's game was a seven inning Cal 12-0 win over Washington. Seven innings? Mercy rule? I didn't know they do that in college. Next #1 seed Arizona. Thursday?
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MoragaBear
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In reply to JimSox • 9:30p, 5/21/24
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JimSox said:
Tonight's game was a seven inning Cal 12-0 win over Washington. Seven innings? Mercy rule? I didn't know they do that in college. Next #1 seed Arizona. Thursday?
Yes, 10 run rule. Arizona Thursday.
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philbert
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9:46p, 5/21/24
Let's just win and not leave it up to the selection committee.


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BearSD
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10:06p, 5/21/24
If I understand the rules of the conference tournament correctly: Winners of each pool advance to the semifinals, and the "best" second place team among the pools also advances. If teams are tied either within a pool or for the wild card spot, the tiebreaker goes to the team that finished higher in the regular season standings.

That means Cal advances if they beat UA on Thursday and finish 2-0 in the pool. UA advances as pool winner by beating Cal even if UA loses to UW, because in the latter scenario all three teams in the pool are 1-1 and UA finished first in the regular season.

If UA beats Cal on Thursday, the Bears can advance as the wild card only if the 2nd place teams in the other two pools were both below 6th in the regular season standings. That would require all four of these games to go as follows: OSU win over Stanford, OSU win over ASU, Utah win over Oregon, and USC win over Oregon.
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Alkiadt
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In reply to Baller4 • 5:03a, 5/22/24
Baller4 said:
Alkiadt said:
Baller4 said:
MoragaBear said:
BearSD said:
My guess would be that the Bears have to win the Pac-12 tournament and get the conference's (last in any sport) automatic bid to get into the NCAA tournament.

Cal's RPI before today's games was 65. With at least 16 low-rated conferences getting automatic bids, a team probably has to be in the RPI top 50 at a minimum to have a good chance of being selected as an at-large team. Baseball America's latest projection, made before this weekend's games, projects the Bears as the 8th team out. I'm not sure that a sweep of a weak Washington team moves the Bears up significantly.

Highly doubt winning the tourney is a prerequisite. Not with the way they ended their season or the sweep over OSU. A win or two should secure it.
Sweep means nothing when you lose the next series to Stanford. The UOP wins don't do anything when it comes to RPI. They will need to win the tournament. The Pac has always been screwed when it comes to selection. The second year OSU won the NC. As I recall, Cal had a better record and took the series agains OSU and Stanford, who took their series agains OSU. Cal was passed for a selection to a regional. They will take the top 3 teams as it stands now. ASU has the same record and has the sweep of Cal. ASU has the series win agains U of A, and Cal was swept. RPI is what kills everything. It will be interesting if this program even has a chance when it comes to the ACC. Same with Stanford. RPI should be thrown out. All the colleges in this area will not help Cal or Stanford in RPI for the ACC.


ASU just lost to Stanford….
Ease up tiger! Don't throw a party yet, maybe if they get by U of A!
Who said anything about a party?
I was just pointing out ASU's (upset) loss.
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calbearsfan
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In reply to MoragaBear • 9:05a, 5/22/24
MoragaBear said:
With a blowout win in the P12 tourney opener to move to 35-18, it would be absolutely criminal to leave Cal out of regionals. Besides sweeping 13 RPI OSU and 37 RPI UConn, they also beat 42 RPI Kansas State and 61 RPI Georgetown and have won 19 of the last 23.


Looks like at least one publication thinks we have more work to do:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2024-ncaa-baseball-tournament-bracket-projected-field-of-64-conference-tournament-week/
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udaman1
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1:03p, 5/22/24
stanford advances. If they win tourney, we are certainly out
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BearSD
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In reply to udaman1 • 1:52p, 5/22/24
udaman1 said:
stanford advances. If they win tourney, we are certainly out
Yeah, if any team not in the regular season top three wins the Pac tournament, the chances for an at-large bid are much slimmer.

Stanford's win today means that Cal has to beat Arizona to advance to the semifinals. If the Bears are 1-1 in their pool, they would lose the tiebreaker to the winner of OSU-ASU, who both finished higher in the regular season standings.
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MoragaBear
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In reply to BearSD • 2:02p, 5/22/24
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BearSD said:
udaman1 said:
stanford advances. If they win tourney, we are certainly out
Yeah, if any team not in the regular season top three wins the Pac tournament, the chances for an at-large bid are much slimmer.

Stanford's win today means that Cal has to beat Arizona to advance to the semifinals. If the Bears are 1-1 in their pool, they would lose the tiebreaker to the winner of OSU-ASU, who both finished higher in the regular season standings.
ASU finished tied with Cal at 17-13. I assume they'd use head to head to break the tie for ASU but if they use overall record, it would be Cal. If OSU beats ASU, they're in.
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BearSD
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In reply to MoragaBear • 2:05p, 5/22/24
MoragaBear said:
BearSD said:
udaman1 said:
stanford advances. If they win tourney, we are certainly out
Yeah, if any team not in the regular season top three wins the Pac tournament, the chances for an at-large bid are much slimmer.

Stanford's win today means that Cal has to beat Arizona to advance to the semifinals. If the Bears are 1-1 in their pool, they would lose the tiebreaker to the winner of OSU-ASU, who both finished higher in the regular season standings.
ASU finished tied with Cal at 17-13. I assume they'd use head to head to break the tie for ASU but if they use overall record, it would be Cal. If OSU beats ASU, they're in.
I think the tiebreaker goes by seeding in this tournament. ASU was seeded #5, Cal #6.

https://pac-12.com/baseball/tournament-2024

Quote:
The Wild Card will be determined by the best record of the non-advancing teams. Any tiebreaker will be awarded to the highest seeded team.
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MoragaBear
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In reply to BearSD • 2:09p, 5/22/24
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BearSD said:
MoragaBear said:
BearSD said:
udaman1 said:
stanford advances. If they win tourney, we are certainly out
Yeah, if any team not in the regular season top three wins the Pac tournament, the chances for an at-large bid are much slimmer.

Stanford's win today means that Cal has to beat Arizona to advance to the semifinals. If the Bears are 1-1 in their pool, they would lose the tiebreaker to the winner of OSU-ASU, who both finished higher in the regular season standings.
ASU finished tied with Cal at 17-13. I assume they'd use head to head to break the tie for ASU but if they use overall record, it would be Cal. If OSU beats ASU, they're in.
I think the tiebreaker goes by seeding in this tournament. ASU was seeded #5, Cal #6.

https://pac-12.com/baseball/tournament-2024

Quote:
The Wild Card will be determined by the best record of the non-advancing teams. Any tiebreaker will be awarded to the highest seeded team.
Sounds right. I still maintain Cal doesn't need to win the tourney to go to regionals or even necessarily beat Arizona. But if Cal or one of Arizona, OSU or Oregon doesn't win the tourney, all bets are off.
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udaman1
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9:13p, 5/22/24
AZ caught us at the nadir of our season. We're clearly the stronger team right now. I don't know who they are throwing tomorrow, but we have been pounding the ball. Up and down the line up. 8-5 winners.
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udaman1
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10:18p, 5/22/24
AZ game just became extremely winnable. AZ advances already. They are playing Stanford in the semis. There is absolutely no incentive for them to do anything else except start their #4 guy against us and sit some starting position players. No one wants to lose a game, but this is the game that AZ would care about the least of any this season. What am I missing here? #4 starter/bullpen game/B-team. Someone tell me if I'm missing anything.
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tpender
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11:22a, 5/23/24
Az wants to host a regional game. Every win helps!
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barsad
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In reply to tpender • 12:18p, 5/23/24
I haven't been this excited about Cal baseball in a long time. They're peaking at the right tine and I think they can win this last Pac-12 tourney title. Go Bears!
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oskidunker
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1:47p, 5/23/24
I thought I heard the game was moved up to 5 pm due to an impending storm. True?
Go Bears!
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JimSox
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2:14p, 5/23/24
I think it's win or the season's over. Is that right?
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udaman1
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In reply to JimSox • 3:45p, 5/23/24
not necessarily, but most projections have Cal missing the NCAA's. Only 3 Pac-12 teams in the NCAAs, compared to 11 SEC teams. Sounds fair.
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udaman1
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In reply to oskidunker • 4:20p, 5/23/24
oskidunker said:
I thought I heard the game was moved up to 5 pm due to an impending storm. True?
No weather issues in Scottsdale. Unless you mean the impending torrential offensive hurricane by the Cal Bears.
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Oakbear
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8:01p, 5/23/24
So far, thurd inning cal 3 the azteam zero
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MoragaBear
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8:21p, 5/23/24
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Make that 7-1 Cal T5. Schultz already has 2 HRs in 5 innings.
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OneKeg
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8:22p, 5/23/24
Good start for Cal.

Schulze with 3-run and 2-run homers and Rodney Green Jr. with a 2-RBI double off the right field wall.

7-1 Bears, batting in the top of the 5th.

Luke Short looked great for the first 3 innings, little shaky in 4th.
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philbert
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8:22p, 5/23/24
LFG


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philbert
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8:25p, 5/23/24

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MoragaBear
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8:49p, 5/23/24
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Love that bullpen circle celebration they've been doing for tourney homers!
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barsad
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In reply to MoragaBear • 9:30p, 5/23/24
Get Stasiowski out of there in the 9th, he's looking shaky after giving up the gopher ball. Shut down time!
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barsad
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In reply to barsad • 9:43p, 5/23/24
Bring on USC! All the way, let's go Bears!
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OneKeg
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9:43p, 5/23/24
CAL WINS 7-5!

Becerra in to save it, gets a line-out double play. Go Bears!
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