swan said:Texas will have home field advantage, but that was also true in 2014 when the Bear's upset the Horn's. I believe we will outswim Texas, but I think it will be difficult to overcome the 70 returning diving points from Windle, Cornish and Campbell.solobear said:
After comparing the Bears and UT, I like the Bears' chances even though it seems so concerning at the first glance. It will come down to who pays more attention to little details and peaks at the right time.
-- The depth of UT team is scary. However, comparing to last year A & B qualifying time, not all of them will score.
CAL MEN LEAD SWIMULATOR RANKINGS
The Swimulator takes everyone's top times so far this season and scores out a national meet respecting individual event limits and reasonable event choices (swimmers can't do two events in a row). No diving is included.
For the men, this puts Cal on top over Texas by a score of 517.5 to 442.5.
Despite the advantage to Cal, this is actually a good result for Texas. At this point last year, Cal had a 112.5 point advantage over Texas. Cal went on to outscore Texas at nationals by 69.5 points in the swimming events at nationals, but Texas won the meet on the back of their 81 diving points. None of Texas's divers graduated. This year Cal are ahead by only 75 points. Both teams have significantly more points in the Swimulator rankings than they did at this point last year.
Cal project to 188 relay points, they have a top 2 ranking in every relay and the top ranking in 3 relays. Texas project to 154 relay points. They have a top 3 time in 4 of the 5 relays including a #1 ranking in the 800 free relay. Their main failing is the 200 medley relay where they currently rank 10th.
Cal have 13 individual swimmers projected to score, including 6 swimmers with 25 or more points. Texas have 16 swimmers ranked in scoring range with 5 projected to score 25 or more.
Texas and Cal's improved totals may be a bad sign for Indiana and NC State, last year's 3rd and 4th place teams. Indiana are only 34.5 points ahead of where they were at this point last year (this year: 189, last year: 154.5) when they went on to score 324 swimming points at nationals. Cal are 45 points ahead of last year, Texas are 82.5 points better.
One final thought: this type of ranking isn't intended as an exact prediction of what will happen at the end of the season. It's intended as a starting point when thinking about what will happen at the end of the year. This is a baseline. If your expectation is that a team will do better or worse, look at their swimmers current rankings and think about which swimmers are likely to move up or down between now and the end of the season.
SWIMULATOR PROJECTED POINTS
Swimulator projections do not include diving
TEAM | SWIMULATOR POINTS | SWIMULATOR POINTS AT THIS POINT LAST SEASON | SWIMMING POINTS AT NATIONALS LAST YEAR | DIVING POINTS AT NATIONALS LAST YEAR
1 | California | 517.5 | 472.5 | 437.5 | 0
2 | Texas | 442.5 | 360 | 368 | 81
3 | NC State | 265 | 304 | 385 | 0
4 | Michigan | 242 | 220 | 168.5 | 0
5 | Stanford | 190 | 223.5 | 205 | 0
6 | Indiana | 189 | 154.5 | 324 | 98
7 | Missouri | 185 | 104 | 29 | 0
8 | Texas A&M | 144 | 113 | 34 | 41
9 | Tennessee | 138 | 131.5 | 67 | 56
10 | Arizona | 136 | 96 | 64 | 0
11 | Southern Cali | 135.5 | 154 | 240 | 13
12 | Alabama | 135 | 190.5 | 95 | 0
13 | Florida | 128.5 | 177 | 347 | 0
14 | Georgia Tech | 113 | 21 | 0 | 0
15 | Georgia | 79 | 65 | 129 | 0
16 | Arizona St | 72 | 150 | 45 | 0
17 | Florida St | 67 | 52 | 42 | 0
18 | Notre Dame | 61 | 25 | 26 | 3
19 | Grand Canyon | 57 | 73 | 7 | 0
20 | Utah | 54 | 28 | 10 | 0
21 | Louisville | 50 | 61.5 | 156 | 0
22 | Harvard | 32 | 15 | 58 | 0
23 | Virginia | 23 | 9 | 19 | 0
24 | Minnesota | 21 | 18.5 | 53 | 14
25 | Brigham Young | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0
26 | Missouri St. (M) | 14 | 17.5 | 0 | 0
26 | UCSB | 14 | 21 | 0 | 0
26 | Denver | 14 | 78 | 31 | 0
29 | Pittsburgh | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0
30 | Kentucky | 8 | 22 | 0 | 0
31 | Duke | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9
31 | East Carolina | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0
33 | Hawaii | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0
34 | West Virginia | 2 | 0 | 2.5 | 0
34 | Wisconsin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0
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CAL MEN, TEXAS WOMEN RETAIN #1 CSCAA RANKINGS; LONGHORN MEN MOVE TO #2
For the third-straight poll this season, the University of California-Berkeley men and the University of Texas women rank #1 in the CSCAA rankings.
Besides the pre-season polls, which had the Texas men and the Stanford women at #1, the Cal men and Texas women have held strong throughout the entirety of the first season, even considering a bunch of suited mid-season invite meets that have taken place over the last few weekends.
Cal's men recently tabulated a #1 result on the Swimulator rankings that SwimSwam put out earlier today, and had a very impressive showing at the 2018 UGA Invite. Even taking aside a heroic and omnipotent weekend from Andrew Seliskar, who stamped his spot as perhaps the best all-around swimmer in the country right now with eye-popping times in every discipline but backstroke (including an astounding range from the 50 free to the 500 free), Cal was a force in essentially every event.
Perhaps the bigger story, though, is the Texas men coming around with a phenomenal weekend of their own. They've moved up from #6 to #2, taking them back into the expected dogfight range that we've expected between Cal, Texas, and Indiana (the Hoosiers are down to #3 thanks to the Longhorns' jump). Spurred by the absurd improvements from UT freshman Charlie Scheinfeld in the breaststrokes, who dropped from 53.60 to 51.61 in the 100 and 1:55.94 to 1:52.78 in the 200, and backed by the regular standouts and the expected strength out of another freshman, Drew Kibler, the Longhorns are proving, yet again, not to doubt their dual meet performances.
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