Unit2Sucks said:
wifeisafurd said:
Unit2Sucks said:
wifeisafurd said:
bearister said:
Superstar cities are back and they never really left - Axios
https://www.axios.com/superstar-cities-new-york-pandemic-ef4336d7-136f-4047-87f6-30f31fa6f59f.html
Forget that wealthy people are moving from the Bay Area to places like with outdoor recreation like Aspin and Park City or business centers like Austin or from New York to South Florida.
I don't know,, you make some good points about generalizations from Axios and then you make an unsupported general statement.
Nice to see someone actually read what I wrote.
I was thinkg of a picture of an Asian gangsters moving to Park City, but I'm reduced to quoting. sources like ..... UC Berkeley and the Chronicle, which took the same data and put into like 5 different articles about C-19 migration from SF.
"A new report released Thursday by the California Policy Lab, a research arm of the University of California, found "no evidence of a pronounced exodus from the state," nor data to suggest that large numbers of wealthy residents are leaving. Two notable exceptions: the city of San Francisco saw a large year-over-year loss, and the state as a whole saw more departures and fewer arrivals in the final quarter of 2020. Some 267,000 people left California around the end of the year, compared to just 128,000 people moving in from other states.
"But since last March, the number of people leaving the city {SF] on net jumped an eye-popping 649% compared to the same period in 2019, based on the California Policy Lab's analysis of address information.filed with credit card companies and other financial agencies. About 80% stayed within the region, mostily through Sacramento County, and Counties in the Sierras like El Dorado, Placer and Nevada also saw sizable gains. Other areas were Austin, Texas, and its northern neighbor Williamson County. The other large area of megaton was Summit (Park City) and Washington (St George) Counties, Utah." For thsoe of have not been to Park city, St. George, Austin and areas of Williamson Count the housing is not cheap (hence the comment about the wealthy)
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes state-to-state migration flows each year ://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geographic-mobility/state-to-state-migration.html California is a now the top state for people coming into Utah.
Or you could look at post office change of addresses which gets us to SF Gate/Chronicle.
The second-most popular destination for people leaving the Bay Area was Texas mostly for Austin and its northern neighbor Williamson County. SF Chronicle articles on June 22nd (Outmigration Soared in Bay Area), June 28, 2021(Californians Fueling Austin Housing Frenzy), Salt Lak Tribune (Covfidi 19 Buyers Flee to Park City). Note consistent with the Cal study Sacaemento is number 1.
Tne Trade Mags which those of us in commercial real estate look quote companies like Zillow and U-Haul, and movers also have offered up their own data on their websites, and also get quoted along with the antidotal crap from variou brokers. For example,stats on moving for Californians: park city is number 4, Austin number 2 and St. George is number 9. Farprice Movers. Redfin users: SF number 1 and New York number 2 for net outflow. SF Gate Quoting Keller Williams Report on Park City
Then there is the stuff with an agenda: Tech Workers Take to the Mountains, Bringing Silicon Valley ...https://www.wsj.com articles tech-workers-take-to-the-...
Thanks for the detail. The census info you quoted only seems to go up to 2019. The Zillow data is similarly dated from last summer. There is still an open question, per my post, as to what the world will look like post reopening.
I live in SF and Zillow and Redfin both showed a decline in the value of my property in 2020 but a rebound in 2021 to a new peak. Not as much of an increase as in the suburbs but meaningful growth.
Similarly, the chronicle is reporting that the outmigration trend from SF proper peaked last summer and is back to "normal". I suspect we will see in migration but we have to check back on that.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/S-F-s-pandemic-exodus-is-over-USPS-data-shows-16333755.php
I don't dispute that many people decamped to the burbs but I do think a lot of the diaspora who moved to the mountains will be back. Not all will of course. If Apple, Google, FB and other large companies want workers in the office, people will move to the Bay Area to take those jobs.
I don't think everything is rosy, far from it. Even when businesses do reopen, there will be far more WFH than before. It will be good for traffic reduction but bad for many local businesses that cater to office workers. Restaurants, etc will have fewer customers for weekday lunches and dinners. I don't think office rents will command the premiums they were leading up to the pandemic either. But people will continue to want to live in SF. For example, I know a lot of young people eager to live in the city now that they don't need to be in the South Bay 5 days per week. SF is still the best place in the bay to be for young adults.
As you note, many sources have a perspective, and there are a lot of outlets that enjoy reporting on the decline of the Bay Area, and SF in particular. As someone who is looking to move to a larger home either in the city or close by it, I can tell you that I'm not seeing favorable pricing anywhere I am looking. If there really was a "mass exodus" as many are claiming, it should be a buyer's market.
Finally I should note that just a few hundred buyers from a big market moving to a small market can make a huge different in the small market but not a dent in the large market. I think that's what we are seeing. Also lots of people buying homes that were primary residences but will end up as second homes or back on the market in the coming years.
Bottom line, I think it would be prudent to revisit this issue when the dust settles.
dimitrig said:
helltopay1 said:
We don't hate California....we hate what the liberals have done to SF in particular and California in general...There;'s a reason thge middle class are fleeing the City and the State in record droves.
If they are anything like you then the sooner they leave, the better for the rest of us!
Lol at the thought that there was a time in decades where SF wasn't liberal. Also, LOL at the idea that conservatives have some answer that will make desirable areas like SF affordable for middle class people. They oppose all affordable housing initiatives and have never shown any interest in making things affordable for anyone. It runs counter to their alleged interest in "free markets". To the extent middle class are "fleeing" SF proper, it's because they can't afford to live here. If you want to say it's because liberals have done a good job creating highly paid jobs and wealth through policy, that doesn't sound like a particularly biting criticism. I don't think that's really what is happening though. I think we have highly paid jobs for a variety of non political reasons and that we see very few political conservatives in the Bay Area because Iof the state of Republican politics. Republicans have pushed our normal conservatives in favor of people like htp1 and Trump. People like WIAF aren't signing up for that.
I agree with your last sentence, though I don't think I have been with the standard GOP views on social issues for some time.
You can get more current numbers.
I don't see migration issues as cultural as many do here. It is pretty much taken as a given in real estate circles there was a move by people with money that could to their jobs essentially anywhere from dense urban areas and it rather apparent that New York,Seattle, and the Bay Area repopulated in our little gated beach area in Laguna Beach and drove prices up over 100%. We also had personal experience in Park City where we sold our away house. This was C-19 driven primarily, a
nd a small subset of people. There also have been a lot of trade articles on movements to Austin and Florida by certain high profile groups that discovered there jobs could be moved given technology. Lot of news for not a huge population pool.
Any big migration patterns will be driven by economic forces probably. A 2021 U.S. Census Bureau report revealed that Utah was the fastest-growing state in America since the 2010 census, with a
growth rate of 18.4%. Utah also is the fastest growing business state over the last decade. People tend to go where the jobs and best economies are (retirement moves often are more motivated by taxes, weather, and other factors). I'm citing this article because it is so thorough, but note this is a conservative group so the article comes with too much bias on taxes. .
https://www.cato.org/tax-budget-bulletin/tax-reform-interstate-migration?utm_source=social&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Cato%20Social%20ShareWhy do states have good economies? A look at the largest and fastest growing state ecomies:
How Utah's economy bounced back from COVID and how ...https://www.sltrib.com news 2021/03/21 how-uta...
[url=https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiFm4b_l_zxAhXCrJ4KHRZpDhgQFjAKegQIKBAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sltrib.com%2Fnews%2F2021%2F03%2F21%2Fhow-utahs-economy-bounced%2F&usg=AOvVaw1bMXx3w-7ovLHCdE4QOkEH][/url]:
Why Utah Has Become America's Economic Star - WSJhttps://www.wsj.com ... Commentary Cross Country
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-14/california-defies-doom-with-no-1-u-s-economyw:Admittedly the Utah WSJ article ad California Bloomberg articles are opinion pieces, but they have a lot of stats and good reasoning..
Lot of cons live and work in blue areas and vice versa for libs. I'm willing to concede taxes and regulation impact business, but so does innovation and capital. Read the Bloomberg article. Utah, does have taxation, and does have some level of regulation. It also has innovation, capital and a young, well educated labor force.
My world when looking at economic well being is that California generally (there are exceptions) commercial cap rates have slipped over time versus some other state like Texas, Arizona and especially Utah. But the rates still are better or equal in California. California still is the leader. The continual commentary about the State's demise are premature.
Some might start to believe Unit 2 and I are really the same person debating each other. My views on housing (I spent some portion of my life involved with lower and middle housing financing) and affordability are exactly in line with Unit 2's comments. And we agree that the critical thing is to look at these trends after the major economic disruption of C-19 is over, rather than drawing conclusions from some Cali techies moving to Austin or finance types relocating from New York to Florida, represent a meaningful change. (The OP heading was about the hating California and the posted article strangely was about supercities).
