movielover said:

---

Haloski has poor logic. I stand by the speculation that the drones was launched internally... one guess is the CIA.

Yesterday I wrote: "Is the CIA trying to start WWIII?"

---

More backpedaling. This is a sad attempt to save face. I hope this doesn't get back to the higher ups. Accusing the Russian government of a false flag operation is not good for your longevity. Please be safe, movielover.

Maybe I drink Russian vodka for you tomorrow comrade.

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

Conflict of egos, his claim is not enough ammo. He apparently wants to follow Putin, thus his desire for the limelight.

movielover said:

---

Maybe I drink Russian vodka for you tomorrow comrade.

---

Why would you drink that swill? We can do better here.

Also, you might not make it to tomorrow with all of your Putin criticism here.

movielover said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

Conflict of egos, his claim is not enough ammo. He apparently wants to follow Putin, thus his desire for the limelight.

---

All part of the grand strategy, I'm sure

movielover said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

---

I see.

As Russia retreats from Bakhmut expect to see more useless drones crashing into things in Moscow for purposes of Russian propaganda reporting that the CIA is trying to start World War III

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

Wagner will be leaving Bakhmut later this month because their mission is over. They are urban warfare specialists. The Russian army will take over their positions.

Look for Wagner to be used again later this year in the looming urban battles of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, west of Bakhmut.

Cal88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

Wagner will be leaving Bakhmut later this month because their mission is over. They are urban warfare specialists. The Russian army will take over their positions.

Look for Wagner to be used again later this year in the looming urban battles of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, west of Bakhmut.

---

That would make sense but this is what he actually said:

"I'm pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut because in the absence of ammunition they're doomed to perish senselessly."

Cal88 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

Wagner will be leaving Bakhmut later this month because their mission is over. They are urban warfare specialists. The Russian army will take over their positions.

Look for Wagner to be used again later this year in the looming urban battles of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, west of Bakhmut.

---

That would make sense but this is what he actually said:

"I'm pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut because in the absence of ammunition they're doomed to perish senselessly."

---

I'm considering what has actually been going on in Bakhmut, not what Prigozhin has been saying, as he is prone to hyperbole, drama, and also quite a bit of war disinfo/head fakes. Wagner has been advancing steadily in Bakhmut for months now, including this week. There is no sign of their withdrawal on the ground yet, they have made gains this week:


black = contested, yellow = Ukraine.

---

How recently have you visited Bakhmut such that you know what is actually going on?

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.

Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Every time a NATO propagandist is put to the task, they cower back and say, "If Russia was mighty, they would've won by now!". Clearly Russia underestimated Ukraine and NATO in its initial invasion. We know this. Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Every time a NATO propagandist is put to the task, they cower back and say, "If Russia was mighty, they would've won by now!". Clearly Russia underestimated Ukraine and NATO in its initial invasion. We know this. Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

---

Russia isn't pulling out. Wagner is pulling out.

Cal88 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

Wagner terrorist, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has announced that his Wagner troops will be leaving Bakhmut on May 10th. This comes nearly 6 months after reports that Bakhmut was successfully captured by Wagner for Russia. Strangely, the Wagner troops have continued dying in this city Russia conquered long ago.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mercenary-chief-prigozhin-says-his-forces-will-leave-bakhmut-next-week-2023-05-05/

---

Wagner will be leaving Bakhmut later this month because their mission is over. They are urban warfare specialists. The Russian army will take over their positions.

Look for Wagner to be used again later this year in the looming urban battles of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, west of Bakhmut.

---

That would make sense but this is what he actually said:

"I'm pulling Wagner units out of Bakhmut because in the absence of ammunition they're doomed to perish senselessly."

---

I'm considering what has actually been going on in Bakhmut, not what Prigozhin has been saying, as he is prone to hyperbole, drama, and also quite a bit of war disinfo/head fakes. Wagner has been advancing steadily in Bakhmut for months now, including this week. There is no sign of their withdrawal on the ground yet, they have made gains this week:


black = contested, yellow = Ukraine.

---

Your use of the word "steadily" here is, um. Interesting.

..But accurate, in reference to the Russians' rate of progress, a slow grind, in what has been the bloodiest battle of the 21st century.

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

---

I WILL most assuredly eat crow if Russia takes Bakhmut. I mean, after what - 6 months? Of this heroic Stalingrad-like battle that the Russians have won over and over again (according to what I've read). If Bakhmut falls to Russia, I will most assuredly eat crow for, I guess making insinuations about what terrorist Prighozin said.

Cal88 will most assuredly NOT eat crow. He will never eat crow. To this day, he won't tell us how much alcohol he lost betting that Trump would win the 2020 election. Will not acknowledge it. Will not answer to it. Never happened, despite him talking about all the alcohol he was going to win on election night. Tell us about it, Cal88. How much alcohol did you lose on your Trump bets?

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

---

I WILL most assuredly eat crow if Russia takes Bakhmut. I mean, after what - 6 months? Of this heroic Stalingrad-like battle that the Russians have won over and over again (according to what I've read). If Bakhmut falls to Russia, I will most assuredly eat crow for, I guess making insinuations about what terrorist Prighozin said.

Cal88 will most assuredly NOT eat crow. He will never eat crow. To this day, he won't tell us how much alcohol he lost betting that Trump would win the 2020 election. Will not acknowledge it. Will not answer to it. Never happened, despite him talking about all the alcohol he was going to win on election night. Tell us about it, Cal88. How much alcohol did you lose on your Trump bets?

---

Stop being a child and doing exactly what I said the NATO propagandists would do.

You said today:

"As Russia retreats from Bakhmut expect to see more useless drones crashing into things in Moscow for purposes of Russian propaganda reporting that the CIA is trying to start World War III"

Cal88 said no, Russia is taking Bakhmut by the end of the month.

One of you will eat crow. I am looking forward to some accountability from you or Cal88.

(This discussion is not about all the things you and Cal88 have said in the past that were proven wrong and neither of you would own up to. That could take awhile)

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.

Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

The weirdest aspect of this war is that the real score in this "game" is a highly contested figure, practically a military secret. It's a slugfest, an artillery-driven war of attrition in which one side has an 8 to 1 advantage in firepower,

The actual score is in the neighborhood of 450,000 to 100,000 casualties, in favor of Russia.

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

---

I WILL most assuredly eat crow if Russia takes Bakhmut. I mean, after what - 6 months? Of this heroic Stalingrad-like battle that the Russians have won over and over again (according to what I've read). If Bakhmut falls to Russia, I will most assuredly eat crow for, I guess making insinuations about what terrorist Prighozin said.

Cal88 will most assuredly NOT eat crow. He will never eat crow. To this day, he won't tell us how much alcohol he lost betting that Trump would win the 2020 election. Will not acknowledge it. Will not answer to it. Never happened, despite him talking about all the alcohol he was going to win on election night. Tell us about it, Cal88. How much alcohol did you lose on your Trump bets?

---

Stop being a child and doing exactly what I said the NATO propagandists would do.

You said today:

"As Russia retreats from Bakhmut expect to see more useless drones crashing into things in Moscow for purposes of Russian propaganda reporting that the CIA is trying to start World War III"

Cal88 said no, Russia is taking Bakhmut by the end of the month.

One of you will eat crow. I am looking forward to some accountability from you or Cal88.

(This discussion is not about all the things you and Cal88 have said in the past that were proven wrong and neither of you would own up to. That could take awhile)

---

The post you quoted from is entirely about what terrorist Piroghzin said

---

I don't believe you are such a poor writer that you didn't mean what you wrote.

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

---

I WILL most assuredly eat crow if Russia takes Bakhmut. I mean, after what - 6 months? Of this heroic Stalingrad-like battle that the Russians have won over and over again (according to what I've read). If Bakhmut falls to Russia, I will most assuredly eat crow for, I guess making insinuations about what terrorist Prighozin said.

Cal88 will most assuredly NOT eat crow. He will never eat crow. To this day, he won't tell us how much alcohol he lost betting that Trump would win the 2020 election. Will not acknowledge it. Will not answer to it. Never happened, despite him talking about all the alcohol he was going to win on election night. Tell us about it, Cal88. How much alcohol did you lose on your Trump bets?

---

Stop being a child and doing exactly what I said the NATO propagandists would do.

You said today:

"As Russia retreats from Bakhmut expect to see more useless drones crashing into things in Moscow for purposes of Russian propaganda reporting that the CIA is trying to start World War III"

Cal88 said no, Russia is taking Bakhmut by the end of the month.

One of you will eat crow. I am looking forward to some accountability from you or Cal88.

(This discussion is not about all the things you and Cal88 have said in the past that were proven wrong and neither of you would own up to. That could take awhile)

---

The post you quoted from is entirely about what terrorist Piroghzin said

---

I don't believe you are such a poor writer that you didn't mean what you wrote.

---

You are making me laugh with your childish little game of gotcha

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

dajo9 said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.



Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

Posters just now said Russia is pulling out. Cal88 says otherwise. Someone should eat crow soon.

---

I WILL most assuredly eat crow if Russia takes Bakhmut. I mean, after what - 6 months? Of this heroic Stalingrad-like battle that the Russians have won over and over again (according to what I've read). If Bakhmut falls to Russia, I will most assuredly eat crow for, I guess making insinuations about what terrorist Prighozin said.

Cal88 will most assuredly NOT eat crow. He will never eat crow. To this day, he won't tell us how much alcohol he lost betting that Trump would win the 2020 election. Will not acknowledge it. Will not answer to it. Never happened, despite him talking about all the alcohol he was going to win on election night. Tell us about it, Cal88. How much alcohol did you lose on your Trump bets?

---

Stop being a child and doing exactly what I said the NATO propagandists would do.

You said today:

"As Russia retreats from Bakhmut expect to see more useless drones crashing into things in Moscow for purposes of Russian propaganda reporting that the CIA is trying to start World War III"

Cal88 said no, Russia is taking Bakhmut by the end of the month.

One of you will eat crow. I am looking forward to some accountability from you or Cal88.

(This discussion is not about all the things you and Cal88 have said in the past that were proven wrong and neither of you would own up to. That could take awhile)

---

The post you quoted from is entirely about what terrorist Piroghzin said

---

I don't believe you are such a poor writer that you didn't mean what you wrote.

---

You are making me laugh with your childish little game of gotcha

---

You are making me laugh with your childish little game of talking the talk but can't walk the walk. Do you take back what you said today?

The loser should dress up in drag like Zelensky and telecast it on Zoom. Blue & gold undergarments, of coarse.

Big C said:

---

oski003 said:

---

Cal88 said:

---

The progress and changes on the frontline are documented by several observers on both sides, using geolocation. This is a very basic aspect of this war, it's kind of surprising to see you are not familiar with it.

Just checked with the ISW map (anti-Russan neocon outfit run by the Kagans), zooming in on Bakhmut, it's very similar to the map above.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

---

If Bakhmut isn't fully taken by Russia by June 1, will you admit you were wrong? Will the NATO propagandists do the same if it is?

---

Forget June 1. If Russia and its military weren't seriously flawed, they would've done a lot better, a long time ago. This is like if U$C were playing San Jose State in football, it's the 3rd quarter and the score is 14-14, most observers would say that U$C sucked, even if they ended up with more points at the end.

---

If you only consider 2 or 3 items. No expert here, but some considerations:

- it was a mild winter, moving machinery hundreds of kilometers not wise
- NATO spent eight years creating Bakhmut defense systems, you don't move through that in a month
- why did Russia need to go anywhere? "If" the kill ratio is 10-to-1, 8-to-1, or even 4-to-1 on Russia's favor, why move anywhere?
- Colonel McGregor says 300,000 Ukrainians KIA, 200,000 injured.
- Vagner pulls out, military takes primacy, ground solidifies, Spring offensive starts, Russia rules the skies.
- Wildcard: does Ukraine have 50,000 attack drones ready to go?

Correction: heaviest shelling since WWII.

An interesting speech from the Australian Institute of International Affairs and Richard Iron. He provides a strategic analysis of the current war the key points within the first 10 minutes:

1. Russia's winter offensive failed.
2. The territorial gains made were trivial and at high cost.
3. The primary reason for Russia's failure was lack of concentrated artillery support, and specifically a lack of artillery shells in support of their infantry.
4. Russia started the war with 18 million shells, and used 10 million in the first year. The Russian industrial base can manufacturer 2 million a year tops. Russia has therefore rationed their shell use.
5. Russia is also struggling with the logistics of supplying shells. The western himars forced Russia to push their ammunition depots farther from the front lines and the trucks used to transport the ammo are highly vulnerable to attack and now need to travel farther distances meaning greater exposure.
6. This resulted in high casualties on the front lines. The men supplied by the mobilization in the fall have been expended, and the new voluntary mobilization is not sufficient in replacing the losses.
7. Due to the high losses Russia has no or limited reserves on the front line.
8. Russia's current state does not mean Ukraine will be successful in their counter offensive.

golden sloth said:

---

An interesting speech from the Australian Institute of International Affairs and Richard Iron. He provides a strategic analysis of the current war the key points within the first 10 minutes:

1. Russia's winter offensive failed.
2. The territorial gains made were trivial and at high cost.
3. The primary reason for Russia's failure was lack of concentrated artillery support, and specifically a lack of artillery shells in support of their infantry.
4. Russia started the war with 18 million shells, and used 10 million in the first year. The Russian industrial base can manufacturer 2 million a year tops. Russia has therefore rationed their shell use.
5. Russia is also struggling with the logistics of supplying shells. The western himars forced Russia to push their ammunition depots farther from the front lines and the trucks used to transport the ammo are highly vulnerable to attack and now need to travel farther distances meaning greater exposure.
6. This resulted in high casualties on the front lines. The men supplied by the mobilization in the fall have been expended, and the new voluntary mobilization is not sufficient in replacing the losses.
7. Due to the high losses Russia has no or limited reserves on the front line.
8. Russia's current state does not mean Ukraine will be successful in their counter offensive.

---

Thanks for posting. On the logistics point, that lines up fairly consistently with a recent Twitter thread I read. This was continues to be an epic disaster for Russia and they are desperately hoping something will save them. That's why they are so focused on some deus ex machines like Chinese support or NATO giving up. There really is no favorable outcome in the offing and the cost of continuing to fight a victory free war is quite high. Make no mistake though, the destruction of Ukraine was a primary aim of this war and they are well on their way to achieving that, even if it doesn't accomplish any of their stated goals and doesn't lead to a conventional victory.

Will be interesting to see how Russia ramps up false flags in order to generate domestic support as it continues to under perform. Are Russian civilians going to fall for it again and again though?

This photo thread by @TheDeadDistrict shows you everything that is wrong with RuAF logistics & the cumulative effect of 14 months of tactical truck attrition

You still see the 'manual labor logistical packaged' 125mm ammo, now on tractor trailers.

Russian Transportation 🧵
1/ https://t.co/E2F3CkWX9B pic.twitter.com/FRx1tPBQgx

— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) May 4, 2023