Big C said:
Zippergate said:
If this is true and it plays out the way he's predicting, this is the biggest "L" in American history.
1. Reaching the same outcome that could have been achieved diplomatically but with massive destruction and loss of life there
2. Sending Russia into the arms of our real strategic threat, the CCP.
3. Worsening relations with China which is apparently gearing up for war over Taiwan. The Ukraine conflict, which has heightened tensions and exposed our utter ineptitude, surely has helped matters.
4. Loss of credibility and prestige as major nations like India say no and ignore US sanctions on Russia
5. Huge hit to the US dollar as countries all over the world realize that their dollar reserves are only safe as long as global bully, the US, says so. The anti-dollar movement is just getting started.
6. More than $100 billion wasted. How much of that was siphoned off to corrupt oligarchs?
7. Severe economic damage from the inflation of the past year, sparked in part by the surge in energy prices.
8. Draining of the strategic oil reserve to suppress oil prices. Strained relations with Saudi Arabia because of this.
9. Implosion of European manufacturing as nat gas prices surged to insane levels due to the cutoff of Russian gas. Bombing the pipelines serving our allies is ballsy move that may have blowback as economic conditions there deteriorate.
10. The rebuild of Ukraine. Who is going to pay for that? Does the country descend into political chaos? It better not for the millions worldwide who depend on Ukraine for food, fertilizer, etc.
I'm sure others could add to this list. It's a clusterf*ck. And it was all preventable.
I somehow have to think that "the biggest 'L' in American history" would be one of the ones that cost a bunch of American lives, instead of, basically, none.
While I don't totally disagree with your 10 points, from a "real politik" perspective, this war has given us...
+ a fresh sense of what works and what doesn't in 21st century warfare
+ a good look at the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian military
+ a good draining of the Russian economy
+ a shot at destabilizing Putin (if not successful, well, we learned something there, too)
+ an opportunity to redefine our "vital interests" for next time
+ a message to China telling them Taiwan wouldn't be a walk in the park
All without having to put American boots on enemy soil!
Okay, I am being a tiny bit facetious, because what about a war-torn Ukraine and all the Ukranian lives lost? Heck, what about the Russian lives lost (I read somewhere on the Internet that they are people, too)? Well, I am hoping that the Ukrainians wanted to put up a fight and that, without us, it would've been worse.
Your first two positives are of marginal value imo. If you're going to count that, be sure to include the cost of alienating much of the world and reinforcing America's image as world bully.
Destabilizing Putin? Perhaps, but he's more popular than ever thanks to this war.
"Vital interests"? I thought this was about protecting democracy and stopping aggression. If the "vital interest" you speak of was crippling Russia, I don't think many Americans are on board with that if they ever were.
Lastly, and most importantly, what's with this obsession of continually demonizing Russia? Thankfully, we didn't do that with Germany the second time around (lesson learned) or Japan and that has been a huge success. Russia has a messy, fledgling democracy, something you'd think we would want to encourage. They are a regional power and nowhere near the threat that CCP-led China is with its aim to supplant the US as world hegemon. China needs to import massive amounts of energy, food etc to support over a billion people, and they have been conducting a multi-front war against the US economically, politically, electronically, destabilizing the US with illegal drugs, spying, steeling IP, buying influence and interfering in US affairs by essentially bribing key people in the corporate sector, government, at universities and in the press while reducing US influence all over the world. In light of this, and given the fact that Russia is the world's largest supplier of many of the things China needs, you'd think we would have the sense to lay aside our personal prejudices and recent history to draw Russia in rather than push it towards China which is what the neocons have done.
I'm no Russophile and certainly have a problem with their support of the mullahs in Iran, for example. All the more reason to bring them into the fold. Germany under Merkel certainly viewed them as a long-term partner. Why couldn't we? Obviously that ship has sailed, certainly for our lifetimes. It was a missed opportunity and it has led to political and humanitarian crisis that will plague Europe for a long time. And it's all because of delusional, self-important neocons and empire-building NATO bureaucrats.
Consider this article. The fact that Putin wanted to join NATO, wanted to be integrated in Europe, belies the notion that Russia was always hellbent on recreating the Soviet Union and restarting the Cold War.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule
