The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

853,213 Views | 9862 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by Anarchistbear
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.

Well, it's true that we have one major political party constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories right now, and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. That does suck.

I still think our democracy is doing better than Russia though. It's a shame that you don't agree.

I agree with you that the Democratic Party is constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. Yes, it does suck.
What's the Democratic conspiracy theory again? How many lawsuits have they filed over it?
DiabloWags
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BearForce2 said:



It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.


What's funny is how you think that Trump won in 2020 when he went 0 - 62 in federal court trying to prove election fraud. Trump sure is good at losing!
0 - 62



BearForce2
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sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.

Well, it's true that we have one major political party constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories right now, and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. That does suck.

I still think our democracy is doing better than Russia though. It's a shame that you don't agree.

I agree with you that the Democratic Party is constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. Yes, it does suck.
What's the Democratic conspiracy theory again? How many lawsuits have they filed over it?

Democrats mainly engage in conspiracies on the practical level and not at the theoretical level. Remember when Democrats associated with the Clinton campaign paid a foreigner to spread lies about Trump prior to the 2016 presidential election, and then pushed those claims to the media? Remember the Russia collusion hoax and the Steel Dossier? Remember how Democrats claimed Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation?

DiabloWags
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But her emails . . .
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.

Well, it's true that we have one major political party constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories right now, and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. That does suck.

I still think our democracy is doing better than Russia though. It's a shame that you don't agree.

I agree with you that the Democratic Party is constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. Yes, it does suck.
What's the Democratic conspiracy theory again? How many lawsuits have they filed over it?

Democrats mainly engage in conspiracies on the practical level and not at the theoretical level. Remember when Democrats associated with the Clinton campaign paid a foreigner to spread lies about Trump prior to the 2016 presidential election, and then pushed those claims to the media? Remember the Russia collusion hoax and the Steel Dossier? Remember how Democrats claimed Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation?
You've got that backwards. Those are all at the theoretical level, trying to form a political narrative. Practical level would be logging lawsuit after lawsuit, forcing out elections officials who certified the result against you, storming the Capitol, etc. That's what the Republicans do.
BearForce2
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DiabloWags said:

BearForce2 said:



It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.


What's funny is how you think that Trump won in 2020 when he went 0 - 62 in federal court trying to prove election fraud. Trump sure is good at losing!
0 - 62

0-62 is your success rate at trying to prove that the election was the most secure ever.
DiabloWags
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BearForce2 said:




0-62 is your success rate at trying to prove that the election was the most secure ever.

Cool story.

Trump-Appointed Judge Dismisses Pennsylvania Election Case in Trump's Latest Legal Defeat (newsweek.com)

SO MUCH WINNING!

Big C
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BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

As to your 2nd point about Putin, there is a lot of misconception around his persona and agenda, because by Russian standards, he is a moderate. His main opposition has been from the far right (Zhirinovsky), who consider Putin to be a wimp, and from the Communist Party, who want to recreate the Soviet empire. The commies have a lot of pull with Russian Boomers, who are nostalgic for uncle Joe and who went through the neoliberal dystopia of the 1990s, and who like in the West, are a large demographic voting block. Even Navalny, who never got much traction among Russian voters outside of a narrow audience in Moscow, is a staunch nationalist who did run on a white supremacist/anti-immigrant agenda.
It's funny that you think there are real elections in Russia.


It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.


If your guy had won, you would think the election was very real and as fair as can be. Right?
BearForce2
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sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.

Well, it's true that we have one major political party constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories right now, and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. That does suck.

I still think our democracy is doing better than Russia though. It's a shame that you don't agree.

I agree with you that the Democratic Party is constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. Yes, it does suck.
What's the Democratic conspiracy theory again? How many lawsuits have they filed over it?

Democrats mainly engage in conspiracies on the practical level and not at the theoretical level. Remember when Democrats associated with the Clinton campaign paid a foreigner to spread lies about Trump prior to the 2016 presidential election, and then pushed those claims to the media? Remember the Russia collusion hoax and the Steel Dossier? Remember how Democrats claimed Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation?
You've got that backwards. Those are all at the theoretical level, trying to form a political narrative. Practical level would be logging lawsuit after lawsuit, forcing out elections officials who certified the result against you, storming the Capitol, etc. That's what the Republicans do.

No, the Democrats engaged in conspiracies, secret plotting to do something illegal.
BearForce2
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Big C said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

As to your 2nd point about Putin, there is a lot of misconception around his persona and agenda, because by Russian standards, he is a moderate. His main opposition has been from the far right (Zhirinovsky), who consider Putin to be a wimp, and from the Communist Party, who want to recreate the Soviet empire. The commies have a lot of pull with Russian Boomers, who are nostalgic for uncle Joe and who went through the neoliberal dystopia of the 1990s, and who like in the West, are a large demographic voting block. Even Navalny, who never got much traction among Russian voters outside of a narrow audience in Moscow, is a staunch nationalist who did run on a white supremacist/anti-immigrant agenda.
It's funny that you think there are real elections in Russia.


It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.


If your guy had won, you would think the election was very real and as fair as can be. Right?

If Trump was declared the winner, you would be hearing about rigged elections from the media 24/7 and the Democrats would be trying to impeach him for the third time. So far, the corporate media have recognized a dozen or so instances of Republican election fraud but nothing from Democrats Make no mistake, Republicans who were anti-Trumpers were involved in the rigged 2020 election but these people aren't being called out for obvious reasons.
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

It's funny that you think there are real elections in the United States.

Well, it's true that we have one major political party constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories right now, and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. That does suck.

I still think our democracy is doing better than Russia though. It's a shame that you don't agree.

I agree with you that the Democratic Party is constantly trying to undermine our electoral process with unfounded conspiracy theories and that they may well drive us into autocracy at some point. Yes, it does suck.
What's the Democratic conspiracy theory again? How many lawsuits have they filed over it?

Democrats mainly engage in conspiracies on the practical level and not at the theoretical level. Remember when Democrats associated with the Clinton campaign paid a foreigner to spread lies about Trump prior to the 2016 presidential election, and then pushed those claims to the media? Remember the Russia collusion hoax and the Steel Dossier? Remember how Democrats claimed Hunter Biden's laptop was Russian disinformation?
You've got that backwards. Those are all at the theoretical level, trying to form a political narrative. Practical level would be logging lawsuit after lawsuit, forcing out elections officials who certified the result against you, storming the Capitol, etc. That's what the Republicans do.

No, the Democrats engaged in conspiracies, secret plotting to do something illegal.
BearForce2
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Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

As to your 2nd point about Putin, there is a lot of misconception around his persona and agenda, because by Russian standards, he is a moderate. His main opposition has been from the far right (Zhirinovsky), who consider Putin to be a wimp, and from the Communist Party, who want to recreate the Soviet empire. The commies have a lot of pull with Russian Boomers, who are nostalgic for uncle Joe and who went through the neoliberal dystopia of the 1990s, and who like in the West, are a large demographic voting block. Even Navalny, who never got much traction among Russian voters outside of a narrow audience in Moscow, is a staunch nationalist who did run on a white supremacist/anti-immigrant agenda.
It's funny that you think there are real elections in Russia.
This is the basic reality in Russian domestic politics:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

As to your 2nd point about Putin, there is a lot of misconception around his persona and agenda, because by Russian standards, he is a moderate. His main opposition has been from the far right (Zhirinovsky), who consider Putin to be a wimp, and from the Communist Party, who want to recreate the Soviet empire. The commies have a lot of pull with Russian Boomers, who are nostalgic for uncle Joe and who went through the neoliberal dystopia of the 1990s, and who like in the West, are a large demographic voting block. Even Navalny, who never got much traction among Russian voters outside of a narrow audience in Moscow, is a staunch nationalist who did run on a white supremacist/anti-immigrant agenda.
It's funny that you think there are real elections in Russia.
This is the basic reality in Russian domestic politics:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-rating-russia/


I'm also not sure what polling in an autocratic regime that controls the information streams is supposed to tell me. Vlad tightened his grip and ramped up the propaganda? Okay.
Sebastabear
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Oh good. Another discussion of the kooky 2020 U.S. election fraud theories, now in the Ukraine thread. How refreshing. And memes too!

If anyone wants to understand why this board was deleted in a few weeks they can reference back here.
Sebastabear
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And now Sweden makes it official they want into NATO. How's that invasion thing working out for you Vlad, take 28.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/05/12/sweden-is-following-finlands-lead-on-joining-nato
DiabloWags
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Sebastabear said:

Oh good. Another discussion of the kooky 2020 U.S. election fraud theories, now in the Ukraine thread. How refreshing. And memes too!

If anyone wants to understand why this board was deleted in a few weeks they can reference back here.


Yup.
Nothing's changed.
sycasey
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Sebastabear said:

Oh good. Another discussion of the kooky 2020 U.S. election fraud theories, now in the Ukraine thread. How refreshing. And memes too!


BearForce will turn every thread into this, at all costs!
BearForce2
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sycasey said:

Sebastabear said:

Oh good. Another discussion of the kooky 2020 U.S. election fraud theories, now in the Ukraine thread. How refreshing. And memes too!


BearForce will turn every thread into this, at all costs!

You can clearly see in this thread that it was you who started talking about elections.
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

Sebastabear said:

Oh good. Another discussion of the kooky 2020 U.S. election fraud theories, now in the Ukraine thread. How refreshing. And memes too!


BearForce will turn every thread into this, at all costs!

You can clearly see in this thread that it was you who started talking about elections.

Actually, it was Cal88!

Elections in Russia, that is. You brought it to your pet conspiracy theory about US elections. Well, one particular election anyway.
BearForce2
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sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

Sebastabear said:

Oh good. Another discussion of the kooky 2020 U.S. election fraud theories, now in the Ukraine thread. How refreshing. And memes too!


BearForce will turn every thread into this, at all costs!

You can clearly see in this thread that it was you who started talking about elections.

Actually, it was Cal88!

Elections in Russia, that is. You brought it to your pet conspiracy theory about US elections.

I don't believe in election conspiracy theories, the evidence and suppression of information is overwhelming.

Anyways, Russia will pull the power chord on Finland tomorrow.
BearForce2
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DiabloWags
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BearForce2
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blungld said:


A little confession leak out? I don't think the Americans who can't identify where Ukraine is or the geopolitics should be deciding our policy there. Darn. I guess that rules out most of MAGA world.

Biden's attempt to reappropriate "MAGA" and "ultra MAGA" was the result of a six-month research effort by liberal groups.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/05/13/biden-ultra-maga/

Trump "absolutely loved" co-opting Biden's new nickname for him "the great MAGA king" and has privately mocked Biden and Democrats' "ultra MAGA" taunt as coming from bad branders, who don't understand the art of marketing.

In which Biden and Dems try to reappropriate "MAGA" and then Trump and Republicans try to re-reappropriate it back. The ULTRA MAGA Wars.
BearForce2
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dajo9 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

The historic tax relief was for Americans. The $40 billion foreign aid package is for, well, foreigners.
So you think we shouldn't be helping Ukraine.
BF2 isn't against helping Ukraine. He is against things that Biden supports.


I was with BLM activist, Cori Bush, until she said screw it and voted for the aid package for Ukraine.
prospeCt
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~ from Bloomberg
https://worldnewsera.com/news/entrepreneurs/analysis-ukraines-allies-are-blundering-their-handling-of-putin/

"If Israel has a senior global strategist, he is Yehezkel Dror. As a professor at the Hebrew University, he has educated generations of Israeli leaders. Six prime ministers have consulted him on issues of war and peace. "Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Problem," written while he was working at the Rand Corp. and published in 1971, awakened the world to the imminent threat posed by fanatical third-world regimes.

Israelis sometimes refer to Dror as the Israeli Henry Kissinger. Both fled the Nazis as boys. They share German as a first language, doctorates from Harvard and a very developed and often highly controversial brand of foreign policy realism.

For Dror, now in his mid-90s, realism has been largely missing from the West's game plan surrounding the war in Ukraine. In a recent interview conducted via email, he discussed what he views as Ukraine's missteps in its dealings with Russia and why he believes the US and its allies have been "1delusional" in their approach to the war. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Zev Chafets: Western governments seem increasingly convinced that Ukraine has a fighting chance to win this war. Is that how you see it?

Yehezkel Dror: No. I think President Zelenskiy is facing a Melian Dilemma.

Dror: In short, that the strong win and the weak lose. Twenty-five hundred years ago, Athenian generals presented the leaders of Melos with an ultimatum. 'Look the facts in the face and consider how you can save your city from destruction,' they said. 'The strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.' The Melians felt they had the high moral ground and the support of a strong ally, Sparta. So, they refused to give in.

Chafets: That decision, as I recall, ended in the annihilation of Melos. I

assume that is not what you think will happen to Ukraine?

Dror: No. This war, like most wars, will end with no absolute winner. Both sides will lose. The question is which side loses more. Ukraine is fighting bravely. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has become a mass media hero. Western countries are condemning Russia and providing Kyiv with weapons and sanctions. But meanwhile, Ukraine is being partly devastated and depopulated. It is paying a very high price in blood and material, while Russia remains secure.

Chafets: The US and Europe view the war in Ukraine as a historical inflection point, in which maintaining post-World War II rules-based international order is at risk.

Dror: There is no "rules-based order," only a partly coordinated international system. There can be no breakdown of what does not really exist. And, although it is not popular to say so, Ukraine is not blameless in this conflict. President Zelenskiy failed to understand that the desire to join NATO posed what President Vladimir Putin saw as a serious strategic threat to Russia. In April 2019, Zelenskiy said he regarded Putin "as an enemy." In December 2021, he called for pre-emptive action against Russia. No one should have been surprised by the Russian invasion in February. Zelenskiy, who is an amateur at statecraft, was surprised and strategically blind.

Chafets: US intelligence foresaw the invasion and said so…

Dror: Yes, but it is hard for the West to grasp the depth of Russian strategic sensitivity to what happens in Ukraine. Russia has been invaded twice from the west, first by Napoleon and then by Germany in World War II. The German invasion was not a Clausewitzian "political war," but a war of total devastation, elimination and enslavement, with very high human and material costs for Russia. That is a major component of Russia's collective memory and military doctrine today. It does not want Western forces or Western allies on its border.

Chafets: The US and its allies do not appear to be moved by Russian fears, real or imagined. They frame the war as a battle between good and evil, democracy versus authoritarian dictatorship, progress against reaction.

Dror: This is delusional. There is no such thing as an inevitable "right side of history." Not very long ago, rule by royal dynasties was regarded as the right side of history. And today, this idea is not universally held. For example, China, a highly relevant player in the world, does not share it. It has a very long political tradition and feelings of superiority that enable it to laugh off such prevailing Western notions.

Chafets: Do you think Putin is also laughing?

Dror: No. Putin may well be stressed. Emotional name-calling, such as branding him as a war criminal and calling for a regime change in Moscow, may be morally and ethically correct and honorable, but it is also form of strategic madness. Russia is, and will remain, an indispensable major partner in the global arena. Attempting to turn it into a pariah state and making Putin persona non grata is an approach that could, under mounting stress, become suicidal.

Chafets: What do you suggest, then, surrender by Ukraine and its Western allies to Russian demands?

Dror: First, I suggest to stop feeding misery in Ukraine by adding weapons to the fire, especially aggressive weapons. The war will very likely end with neither side completely satisfied. But Ukraine, as the weaker side, will be less satisfied.

Chafets: They seem far from a settlement. Can one be imposed?

Dror: They need help. I propose that the US, China, the EU and India meet in a neutral venue such as Singapore. If they can reach an agreement, they could then press it on Putin and Zelenskiy.

Chafets: Does Israel have a place in this diplomacy?

Dror: Israel is in the American camp. It is dependent on the US and must accommodate its "suggestions." But it also has an interest in not demolishing its relations with Russia. That is the pragmatic policy that Prime Minister [Naftali] Bennett and Foreign Minister [Yair] Lapid are currently following,"
Big C
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I was tempted to say Mr. Dror has been taking copious notes while reading my Bear Insider posts on this topic. Then I saw he predates me by a few decades, so I'll hand it to the guy: I probably read him, somewhere along the line.
golden sloth
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prospeCt said:

~ from Bloomberg
https://worldnewsera.com/news/entrepreneurs/analysis-ukraines-allies-are-blundering-their-handling-of-putin/

"If Israel has a senior global strategist, he is Yehezkel Dror. As a professor at the Hebrew University, he has educated generations of Israeli leaders. Six prime ministers have consulted him on issues of war and peace. "Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Problem," written while he was working at the Rand Corp. and published in 1971, awakened the world to the imminent threat posed by fanatical third-world regimes.

Israelis sometimes refer to Dror as the Israeli Henry Kissinger. Both fled the Nazis as boys. They share German as a first language, doctorates from Harvard and a very developed and often highly controversial brand of foreign policy realism.

For Dror, now in his mid-90s, realism has been largely missing from the West's game plan surrounding the war in Ukraine. In a recent interview conducted via email, he discussed what he views as Ukraine's missteps in its dealings with Russia and why he believes the US and its allies have been "1delusional" in their approach to the war. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Zev Chafets: Western governments seem increasingly convinced that Ukraine has a fighting chance to win this war. Is that how you see it?

Yehezkel Dror: No. I think President Zelenskiy is facing a Melian Dilemma.

Dror: In short, that the strong win and the weak lose. Twenty-five hundred years ago, Athenian generals presented the leaders of Melos with an ultimatum. 'Look the facts in the face and consider how you can save your city from destruction,' they said. 'The strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.' The Melians felt they had the high moral ground and the support of a strong ally, Sparta. So, they refused to give in.

Chafets: That decision, as I recall, ended in the annihilation of Melos. I

assume that is not what you think will happen to Ukraine?

Dror: No. This war, like most wars, will end with no absolute winner. Both sides will lose. The question is which side loses more. Ukraine is fighting bravely. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has become a mass media hero. Western countries are condemning Russia and providing Kyiv with weapons and sanctions. But meanwhile, Ukraine is being partly devastated and depopulated. It is paying a very high price in blood and material, while Russia remains secure.

Chafets: The US and Europe view the war in Ukraine as a historical inflection point, in which maintaining post-World War II rules-based international order is at risk.

Dror: There is no "rules-based order," only a partly coordinated international system. There can be no breakdown of what does not really exist. And, although it is not popular to say so, Ukraine is not blameless in this conflict. President Zelenskiy failed to understand that the desire to join NATO posed what President Vladimir Putin saw as a serious strategic threat to Russia. In April 2019, Zelenskiy said he regarded Putin "as an enemy." In December 2021, he called for pre-emptive action against Russia. No one should have been surprised by the Russian invasion in February. Zelenskiy, who is an amateur at statecraft, was surprised and strategically blind.

Chafets: US intelligence foresaw the invasion and said so…

Dror: Yes, but it is hard for the West to grasp the depth of Russian strategic sensitivity to what happens in Ukraine. Russia has been invaded twice from the west, first by Napoleon and then by Germany in World War II. The German invasion was not a Clausewitzian "political war," but a war of total devastation, elimination and enslavement, with very high human and material costs for Russia. That is a major component of Russia's collective memory and military doctrine today. It does not want Western forces or Western allies on its border.

Chafets: The US and its allies do not appear to be moved by Russian fears, real or imagined. They frame the war as a battle between good and evil, democracy versus authoritarian dictatorship, progress against reaction.

Dror: This is delusional. There is no such thing as an inevitable "right side of history." Not very long ago, rule by royal dynasties was regarded as the right side of history. And today, this idea is not universally held. For example, China, a highly relevant player in the world, does not share it. It has a very long political tradition and feelings of superiority that enable it to laugh off such prevailing Western notions.

Chafets: Do you think Putin is also laughing?

Dror: No. Putin may well be stressed. Emotional name-calling, such as branding him as a war criminal and calling for a regime change in Moscow, may be morally and ethically correct and honorable, but it is also form of strategic madness. Russia is, and will remain, an indispensable major partner in the global arena. Attempting to turn it into a pariah state and making Putin persona non grata is an approach that could, under mounting stress, become suicidal.

Chafets: What do you suggest, then, surrender by Ukraine and its Western allies to Russian demands?

Dror: First, I suggest to stop feeding misery in Ukraine by adding weapons to the fire, especially aggressive weapons. The war will very likely end with neither side completely satisfied. But Ukraine, as the weaker side, will be less satisfied.

Chafets: They seem far from a settlement. Can one be imposed?

Dror: They need help. I propose that the US, China, the EU and India meet in a neutral venue such as Singapore. If they can reach an agreement, they could then press it on Putin and Zelenskiy.

Chafets: Does Israel have a place in this diplomacy?

Dror: Israel is in the American camp. It is dependent on the US and must accommodate its "suggestions." But it also has an interest in not demolishing its relations with Russia. That is the pragmatic policy that Prime Minister [Naftali] Bennett and Foreign Minister [Yair] Lapid are currently following,"



Dror is simply wrong. He seems to believe that Russia has the right to determine the policies of sovereign foreign countries. Russia does not, if you believe that you are wrong. He thinks Russia is secure, it is not. The economic sanctions are serious, and the war is causing Russia's its demographic collapse to be further exacerbated. Ukraine viewed Russia as an enemy once they illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, that is when the Ukraine identity was born and is completely the result of the russian belligerence.

Russia's weaknesses have also been exposed, it is a pathetic government with soldiers that dont trust their commanders (with good reason), that has been rotted by corruption, they lied to their country about why they invaded and fail to acknowledge the truth.

I keep seeing the the line that Ukraine should just give up to prevent themselves from being destroyed, but if they surrender they will be destroyed. Let's be honest, the Russians will erase Ukraine from history. Furthermore Russia has already killed itself by isolating itself from its markets.
sycasey
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golden sloth said:

prospeCt said:

~ from Bloomberg
https://worldnewsera.com/news/entrepreneurs/analysis-ukraines-allies-are-blundering-their-handling-of-putin/

"If Israel has a senior global strategist, he is Yehezkel Dror. As a professor at the Hebrew University, he has educated generations of Israeli leaders. Six prime ministers have consulted him on issues of war and peace. "Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Problem," written while he was working at the Rand Corp. and published in 1971, awakened the world to the imminent threat posed by fanatical third-world regimes.

Israelis sometimes refer to Dror as the Israeli Henry Kissinger. Both fled the Nazis as boys. They share German as a first language, doctorates from Harvard and a very developed and often highly controversial brand of foreign policy realism.

For Dror, now in his mid-90s, realism has been largely missing from the West's game plan surrounding the war in Ukraine. In a recent interview conducted via email, he discussed what he views as Ukraine's missteps in its dealings with Russia and why he believes the US and its allies have been "1delusional" in their approach to the war. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Zev Chafets: Western governments seem increasingly convinced that Ukraine has a fighting chance to win this war. Is that how you see it?

Yehezkel Dror: No. I think President Zelenskiy is facing a Melian Dilemma.

Dror: In short, that the strong win and the weak lose. Twenty-five hundred years ago, Athenian generals presented the leaders of Melos with an ultimatum. 'Look the facts in the face and consider how you can save your city from destruction,' they said. 'The strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.' The Melians felt they had the high moral ground and the support of a strong ally, Sparta. So, they refused to give in.

Chafets: That decision, as I recall, ended in the annihilation of Melos. I

assume that is not what you think will happen to Ukraine?

Dror: No. This war, like most wars, will end with no absolute winner. Both sides will lose. The question is which side loses more. Ukraine is fighting bravely. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has become a mass media hero. Western countries are condemning Russia and providing Kyiv with weapons and sanctions. But meanwhile, Ukraine is being partly devastated and depopulated. It is paying a very high price in blood and material, while Russia remains secure.

Chafets: The US and Europe view the war in Ukraine as a historical inflection point, in which maintaining post-World War II rules-based international order is at risk.

Dror: There is no "rules-based order," only a partly coordinated international system. There can be no breakdown of what does not really exist. And, although it is not popular to say so, Ukraine is not blameless in this conflict. President Zelenskiy failed to understand that the desire to join NATO posed what President Vladimir Putin saw as a serious strategic threat to Russia. In April 2019, Zelenskiy said he regarded Putin "as an enemy." In December 2021, he called for pre-emptive action against Russia. No one should have been surprised by the Russian invasion in February. Zelenskiy, who is an amateur at statecraft, was surprised and strategically blind.

Chafets: US intelligence foresaw the invasion and said so…

Dror: Yes, but it is hard for the West to grasp the depth of Russian strategic sensitivity to what happens in Ukraine. Russia has been invaded twice from the west, first by Napoleon and then by Germany in World War II. The German invasion was not a Clausewitzian "political war," but a war of total devastation, elimination and enslavement, with very high human and material costs for Russia. That is a major component of Russia's collective memory and military doctrine today. It does not want Western forces or Western allies on its border.

Chafets: The US and its allies do not appear to be moved by Russian fears, real or imagined. They frame the war as a battle between good and evil, democracy versus authoritarian dictatorship, progress against reaction.

Dror: This is delusional. There is no such thing as an inevitable "right side of history." Not very long ago, rule by royal dynasties was regarded as the right side of history. And today, this idea is not universally held. For example, China, a highly relevant player in the world, does not share it. It has a very long political tradition and feelings of superiority that enable it to laugh off such prevailing Western notions.

Chafets: Do you think Putin is also laughing?

Dror: No. Putin may well be stressed. Emotional name-calling, such as branding him as a war criminal and calling for a regime change in Moscow, may be morally and ethically correct and honorable, but it is also form of strategic madness. Russia is, and will remain, an indispensable major partner in the global arena. Attempting to turn it into a pariah state and making Putin persona non grata is an approach that could, under mounting stress, become suicidal.

Chafets: What do you suggest, then, surrender by Ukraine and its Western allies to Russian demands?

Dror: First, I suggest to stop feeding misery in Ukraine by adding weapons to the fire, especially aggressive weapons. The war will very likely end with neither side completely satisfied. But Ukraine, as the weaker side, will be less satisfied.

Chafets: They seem far from a settlement. Can one be imposed?

Dror: They need help. I propose that the US, China, the EU and India meet in a neutral venue such as Singapore. If they can reach an agreement, they could then press it on Putin and Zelenskiy.

Chafets: Does Israel have a place in this diplomacy?

Dror: Israel is in the American camp. It is dependent on the US and must accommodate its "suggestions." But it also has an interest in not demolishing its relations with Russia. That is the pragmatic policy that Prime Minister [Naftali] Bennett and Foreign Minister [Yair] Lapid are currently following,"



Dror is simply wrong. He seems to believe that Russia has the right to determine the policies of sovereign foreign countries. Russia does not, if you believe that you are wrong. He thinks Russia is secure, it is not. The economic sanctions are serious, and the war is causing Russia's its demographic collapse to be further exacerbated. Ukraine viewed Russia as an enemy once they illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, that is when the Ukraine identity was born and is completely the result of the russian belligerence.

Russia's weaknesses have also been exposed, it is a pathetic government with soldiers that dont trust their commanders (with good reason), that has been rotted by corruption, they lied to their country about why they invaded and fail to acknowledge the truth.

I keep seeing the the line that Ukraine should just give up to prevent themselves from being destroyed, but if they surrender they will be destroyed. Let's be honest, the Russians will erase Ukraine from history. Furthermore Russia has already killed itself by isolating itself from its markets.

I feel like I'm just reading a replay of the John Mearsheimer arguments that were already bandied about here. Seems like another past-his-prime expert stuck in a Cold War mentality. Things are different now and modern Russia is not as strong as the Soviet Union was.
BearForce2
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Thank God for Rand Paul. The proposed aid package will be more than the first 8 years of the war in Afghanistan and it will exceed the cost of the first Gulf War if you include what was already given.

This is more than just money, this will prolong the conflict and prevent both countries from going to the negotiating table. Rather than establishing peace in the region, it will extend the war.

Trump has said it's time for both sides to de-escalate and negotiate but the ruling class appears to be going for regime change.
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

Thank God for Rand Paul. The proposed aid package will be more than the first 8 years of the war in Afghanistan and it will exceed the cost of the first Gulf War if you include what was already given.

This is more than just money, this will prolong the conflict and prevent both countries from going to the negotiating table. Rather than establishing peace in the region, it will extend the war.

Trump has said it's time for both sides to de-escalate and negotiate but the ruling class appears to be going for regime change.

Sounds like you and Trump want Putin to be in the strongest possible position when going to the negotiating table.

Shocking.
BearForce2
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sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

Thank God for Rand Paul. The proposed aid package will be more than the first 8 years of the war in Afghanistan and it will exceed the cost of the first Gulf War if you include what was already given.

This is more than just money, this will prolong the conflict and prevent both countries from going to the negotiating table. Rather than establishing peace in the region, it will extend the war.

Trump has said it's time for both sides to de-escalate and negotiate but the ruling class appears to be going for regime change.

Sounds like you and Trump want Putin to be in the strongest possible position when going to the negotiating table.

Shocking.

It seems like you have always been pro-war.

Not shocking.
sycasey
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BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

Thank God for Rand Paul. The proposed aid package will be more than the first 8 years of the war in Afghanistan and it will exceed the cost of the first Gulf War if you include what was already given.

This is more than just money, this will prolong the conflict and prevent both countries from going to the negotiating table. Rather than establishing peace in the region, it will extend the war.

Trump has said it's time for both sides to de-escalate and negotiate but the ruling class appears to be going for regime change.

Sounds like you and Trump want Putin to be in the strongest possible position when going to the negotiating table.

Shocking.

It seems like you have always been pro-war.

Not shocking.

Nope, try again.
Sebastabear
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golden sloth said:

prospeCt said:

~ from Bloomberg
https://worldnewsera.com/news/entrepreneurs/analysis-ukraines-allies-are-blundering-their-handling-of-putin/

"If Israel has a senior global strategist, he is Yehezkel Dror. As a professor at the Hebrew University, he has educated generations of Israeli leaders. Six prime ministers have consulted him on issues of war and peace. "Crazy States: A Counterconventional Strategic Problem," written while he was working at the Rand Corp. and published in 1971, awakened the world to the imminent threat posed by fanatical third-world regimes.

Israelis sometimes refer to Dror as the Israeli Henry Kissinger. Both fled the Nazis as boys. They share German as a first language, doctorates from Harvard and a very developed and often highly controversial brand of foreign policy realism.

For Dror, now in his mid-90s, realism has been largely missing from the West's game plan surrounding the war in Ukraine. In a recent interview conducted via email, he discussed what he views as Ukraine's missteps in its dealings with Russia and why he believes the US and its allies have been "1delusional" in their approach to the war. The conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

Zev Chafets: Western governments seem increasingly convinced that Ukraine has a fighting chance to win this war. Is that how you see it?

Yehezkel Dror: No. I think President Zelenskiy is facing a Melian Dilemma.

Dror: In short, that the strong win and the weak lose. Twenty-five hundred years ago, Athenian generals presented the leaders of Melos with an ultimatum. 'Look the facts in the face and consider how you can save your city from destruction,' they said. 'The strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.' The Melians felt they had the high moral ground and the support of a strong ally, Sparta. So, they refused to give in.

Chafets: That decision, as I recall, ended in the annihilation of Melos. I

assume that is not what you think will happen to Ukraine?

Dror: No. This war, like most wars, will end with no absolute winner. Both sides will lose. The question is which side loses more. Ukraine is fighting bravely. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has become a mass media hero. Western countries are condemning Russia and providing Kyiv with weapons and sanctions. But meanwhile, Ukraine is being partly devastated and depopulated. It is paying a very high price in blood and material, while Russia remains secure.

Chafets: The US and Europe view the war in Ukraine as a historical inflection point, in which maintaining post-World War II rules-based international order is at risk.

Dror: There is no "rules-based order," only a partly coordinated international system. There can be no breakdown of what does not really exist. And, although it is not popular to say so, Ukraine is not blameless in this conflict. President Zelenskiy failed to understand that the desire to join NATO posed what President Vladimir Putin saw as a serious strategic threat to Russia. In April 2019, Zelenskiy said he regarded Putin "as an enemy." In December 2021, he called for pre-emptive action against Russia. No one should have been surprised by the Russian invasion in February. Zelenskiy, who is an amateur at statecraft, was surprised and strategically blind.

Chafets: US intelligence foresaw the invasion and said so…

Dror: Yes, but it is hard for the West to grasp the depth of Russian strategic sensitivity to what happens in Ukraine. Russia has been invaded twice from the west, first by Napoleon and then by Germany in World War II. The German invasion was not a Clausewitzian "political war," but a war of total devastation, elimination and enslavement, with very high human and material costs for Russia. That is a major component of Russia's collective memory and military doctrine today. It does not want Western forces or Western allies on its border.

Chafets: The US and its allies do not appear to be moved by Russian fears, real or imagined. They frame the war as a battle between good and evil, democracy versus authoritarian dictatorship, progress against reaction.

Dror: This is delusional. There is no such thing as an inevitable "right side of history." Not very long ago, rule by royal dynasties was regarded as the right side of history. And today, this idea is not universally held. For example, China, a highly relevant player in the world, does not share it. It has a very long political tradition and feelings of superiority that enable it to laugh off such prevailing Western notions.

Chafets: Do you think Putin is also laughing?

Dror: No. Putin may well be stressed. Emotional name-calling, such as branding him as a war criminal and calling for a regime change in Moscow, may be morally and ethically correct and honorable, but it is also form of strategic madness. Russia is, and will remain, an indispensable major partner in the global arena. Attempting to turn it into a pariah state and making Putin persona non grata is an approach that could, under mounting stress, become suicidal.

Chafets: What do you suggest, then, surrender by Ukraine and its Western allies to Russian demands?

Dror: First, I suggest to stop feeding misery in Ukraine by adding weapons to the fire, especially aggressive weapons. The war will very likely end with neither side completely satisfied. But Ukraine, as the weaker side, will be less satisfied.

Chafets: They seem far from a settlement. Can one be imposed?

Dror: They need help. I propose that the US, China, the EU and India meet in a neutral venue such as Singapore. If they can reach an agreement, they could then press it on Putin and Zelenskiy.

Chafets: Does Israel have a place in this diplomacy?

Dror: Israel is in the American camp. It is dependent on the US and must accommodate its "suggestions." But it also has an interest in not demolishing its relations with Russia. That is the pragmatic policy that Prime Minister [Naftali] Bennett and Foreign Minister [Yair] Lapid are currently following,"



Dror is simply wrong. He seems to believe that Russia has the right to determine the policies of sovereign foreign countries. Russia does not, if you believe that you are wrong. He thinks Russia is secure, it is not. The economic sanctions are serious, and the war is causing Russia's its demographic collapse to be further exacerbated. Ukraine viewed Russia as an enemy once they illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, that is when the Ukraine identity was born and is completely the result of the russian belligerence.

Russia's weaknesses have also been exposed, it is a pathetic government with soldiers that dont trust their commanders (with good reason), that has been rotted by corruption, they lied to their country about why they invaded and fail to acknowledge the truth.

I keep seeing the the line that Ukraine should just give up to prevent themselves from being destroyed, but if they surrender they will be destroyed. Let's be honest, the Russians will erase Ukraine from history. Furthermore Russia has already killed itself by isolating itself from its markets.
100% correct. So much of what Dror says here is mired in the past.

Talking about how Russia's fears of western encroachment are partially justified because of what happened in the Napoleonic wars (when people were literally fighting with horses and buggies) is silly and ignores the most fundamental tenet of modern warfare. Namely that air superiority is supreme. And to be blunt if we wanted to be in Russia we could be there in an hour regardless of who controls Ukraine. And there's nothing short of nuclear war Russia could do to stop us. And again that has nothing to do with whether Zelensky or a Russian puppet sits in Kyiv.

And to say that Russia is an "indispensable major power" sounds like someone whose real politik views were formed in the 50s and 60s, which of course is exactly true in Dror's case. The world has changed quite a bit since this was true, if it ever was.

And lastly of course saying Ukraine would be better off if we stopped giving them the weapons they are using to defend themselves is like saying a drowning man would be better off if we just took away his life preserver. Wouldn't it be so much better off for all of us if he'd just drown already? Which is generally gross, but also particularly dumb considering there is every indication Putin has no intention of stopping at Ukraine if he succeeds there. And if that happens we would definitely not be better off.

BearForce2
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sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

sycasey said:

BearForce2 said:

Thank God for Rand Paul. The proposed aid package will be more than the first 8 years of the war in Afghanistan and it will exceed the cost of the first Gulf War if you include what was already given.

This is more than just money, this will prolong the conflict and prevent both countries from going to the negotiating table. Rather than establishing peace in the region, it will extend the war.

Trump has said it's time for both sides to de-escalate and negotiate but the ruling class appears to be going for regime change.

Sounds like you and Trump want Putin to be in the strongest possible position when going to the negotiating table.

Shocking.

It seems like you have always been pro-war.

Not shocking.

Nope, try again.

There's no need. We can agree to disagree over supporting Raytheon.
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