The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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bearister
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7:43a, 2/23/22
"Beyond the battle against uniformed troops and intelligence operatives, Putin would probably face a prolonged guerrilla war from Ukrainian militias. Knowledgeable sources estimate that more than 400,000 pro-Kyiv Ukrainians have received at least some training since Russia's 2014 incursion, and that there are at least 1 million weapons in private hands, including AK-47s and other automatic weapons looted from government stores. As many as 15 militia groups are spread throughout the country some virulently right-wing, but all capable of causing havoc for Moscow (and probably Kyiv, too)."
-David Ignatius

As both America and Russia learned in Afghanistan (and we learned in Vietnam), when a Super Power can't use nukes or otherwise slaughter an entire nation, guerrilla wars are a slow bleed out. Apparently the Far Right Ukrainian militias are psychos. We shall see.

*Naturally, the terrain of Vietnam and Afghanistan provided more favorable conditions for an insurgency.

From December:

Opinion | To deter a Russian attack, Ukraine needs to prepare for guerrilla warfare - The Washington Post


https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/12/15/ukraine-russia-putin-aggression-nato/
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Anarchistbear
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8:01a, 2/23/22
I think the "invasion " is over for now. He has re-occupied territory previously invaded and will incrementally try to increase this territory through "partisan" threats . But I don't think tanks are rolling to Kiev despite the media lust for war porn.This is a long game.
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bearister
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8:20a, 2/23/22
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10:13a, 2/23/22
"Postings spotted by military analyst Rob Lee on Monday showed about 100 soldiers camped out or rather lying down at a train station about 20km from Ukraine's border, without rations and having to buy food for themselves.

Russian troops based in Belarus, in forests near the town of Khoyniki, 50km from the Ukraine border, were described by one local a few days ago as people who "drink a lot and sell a lot of their diesel fuel", suggesting a lack of discipline despite the heightened political tensions."



Harsh conditions mean Russian troops near Ukraine will need to be moved soon | Ukraine | The Guardian


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/harsh-conditions-mean-russian-troops-near-ukraine-will-need-to-be-moved-soon
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concordtom
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In reply to bearister • 10:18a, 2/23/22
bearister said:
Trump:
"Oh, wow.
How impressive!
Looks how he's just taking all this land without paying any money or casualties.
Well, played, Vladimir!"
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concordtom
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In reply to Anarchistbear • 10:37a, 2/23/22
Anarchistbear said:
I think the "invasion " is over for now. He has re-occupied territory previously invaded and will incrementally try to increase this territory through "partisan" threats . But I don't think tanks are rolling to Kiev despite the media lust for war porn.This is a long game.
From reports about advanced combat units to hospitals being set up to deal with wounded, sounds like the "invasion" is just about to begin.

It may be a long game. They may permanently reside just across the border in order to squeeze the life out of Ukraine, and inch forward. But it's not "over" by any means.
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sycasey
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In reply to concordtom • 11:24a, 2/23/22
concordtom said:
Anarchistbear said:
I think the "invasion " is over for now. He has re-occupied territory previously invaded and will incrementally try to increase this territory through "partisan" threats . But I don't think tanks are rolling to Kiev despite the media lust for war porn.This is a long game.
From reports about advanced combat units to hospitals being set up to deal with wounded, sounds like the "invasion" is just about to begin.

It may be a long game. They may permanently reside just across the border in order to squeeze the life out of Ukraine, and inch forward. But it's not "over" by any means.
Putin will probably make the same play he did for the territory he now holds: false flags, fake news, basically concocting a new justification to take more territory and then sending the troops in for "peacekeeping."

After this last action I've lost any trust in people who keep saying "Putin will stop here." Based on his past actions, why would you think that? His speech makes it pretty clear he thinks Ukraine should be part of Russia, probably along with every other former Soviet state.
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concordtom
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In reply to sycasey • 1:09p, 2/23/22
It was criminally absurd to suggest that Ukraine has no history of its own and is simply part of Russia.
For one, they have their own language, and culture, and history.
For two, Russian language in Ukraine is relatively new.

5 years ago, my sister married a guy who moved to Irvine from near Sochi at age 7. His family spoke/speak Russian, and my mom said, "oh, isn't that wonderful? The family histories are all getting back together!"

I said, "Mom - that's completely inaccurate. Allow me to remind you.
It was your step-mother whose parents moved here from UKRAINE, not Russia.
And they spoke Ukrainian, not Russian." (FYI: my mom's mom died of a seizure in 1944 when my mom was 11 months old. Thus, step-mom.)

She said, "well, Russian... Ukrainian, it's all the same."
I said, "No, it's not, Mom. In fact, I did some research on it, and Russian language in Ukraine only began to be of large significance AFTER the Russian Revolution and the birth of the USSR, which occurred 20 years after your step-grandparents moved to this country. They were Ukrainian and spoke Ukrainian. They are buried in a Ukrainian Orthodox cemetery (Youngstown Ohio)."

Putin is in the process of destroying Ukrainian history, language, and culture.
This is no different than what has happened in many many other places throughout history throughout the world.
Take them over, wipe them out, get them to assimilate.

Breadth of world languages is in decline.
Click on this link and scroll through the list. Pretty amazing.

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/apr/15/language-extinct-endangered

One day I suspect Ukrainian will be on this list.
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BearForce2
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2:20p, 2/23/22


Putin doesn't know Biden's next move but he knows Biden doesn't know Biden's next move.
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bearister
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8:06p, 2/23/22
Senate intelligence chair warns Putin cyberattacks could trigger bigger war - Axios


https://www.axios.com/mark-warner-putin-cyber-attacks-ukraine-40c5e959-5093-4d79-bf24-8d4731edb293.html


….then why don't we lay waste to the motherf@uckers?

Why Russia's cyber defenses are so weak


https://money.cnn.com/2017/05/15/technology/russia-vulnerable-cyberattack/

Russia's Cyber Attacks Blindspot and Preventive Measures | GRI


https://globalriskinsights.com/2019/03/russia-cyber-attacks-blindspot/
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Anarchistbear
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8:22p, 2/23/22
It's on. Major Russian offensive begins in Ukraine.
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bearister
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8:27p, 2/23/22
Putin orders military operations in Ukraine, demands Kyiv forces surrender


https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-orders-military-operations-ukraine-032926655.html
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bearister
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8:36p, 2/23/22
"IEDs can be used effectively by guerrilla forces to attack a major Kremlin weakness, the Russian military's generally road-bound logistics trains. IEDs are both inexpensive and difficult to identify. In recent conflicts, insurgents have hidden these devices in everything from water cans to animal carcasses. They can vary in size from small anti-personnel devices to a shipping container or small building filled with ammonium nitrate.

Given the plentiful supply of ammonium nitrate, a 20 metric ton IED is not out of the question. Such a device would certainly disrupt an armored attack and devastate a logistics convoy. Like US forces in Iraq, Russia would have to dedicate considerable troops and resources to keeping lines of communications open.

The key will be to train Ukrainian active, reserve, and any militia or proposed guerrilla forces in the techniques necessary to build, position, and detonate these devices. Insurgents have shown remarkable ingenuity in developing both victim-activated and remote triggers using garage door openers, cell phones, garden hoses, and other simple devices to close electric circuits. The one element not widely available to civilians is the detonator or blasting cap. The Ukrainian government needs to produce and preposition these devices.

….. Of course, Ukrainian leaders are acutely aware of Russia's historically bloody methods for suppressing insurgencies. They face a difficult choice in deciding whether to equip their people for this kind of effort. The human costs of an insurgency campaign against Putin's invasion force would likely be devastating. Nevertheless, Ukrainians who have already been defending their country against Russian aggression for more than seven years are unlikely to accept any attempt to occupy more Ukrainian land."

Guerrilla tactics offer Ukraine's best deterrent against Putin's invasion force - Atlantic Council


https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/guerrilla-tactics-offer-ukraines-best-chance-against-putins-invasion-force/


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DiabloWags
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8:41p, 2/23/22
I actually turned my TV to Faux News for 2 minutes while talking on the phone with a friend of mine when the first report of an invasion was made.

Laura Ingraham was sucking off Glenn Greenwald and they both claimed that this would never have happened if the Orange Man was President and if the Democrats hadnt prevented Trump from working with Putin.

Cause you know...... Russia is our Friend!
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8:45p, 2/23/22
Ukrainians ready for resistance: 'The whole country will be fighting back' | Ukraine | The Guardian


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/ukrainians-ready-for-resistance-the-whole-country-will-be-fighting-back

" The Russian army has better weapons and technical equipment than us, so we may lose battles or campaigns. But they can never win the country if the Ukrainian people are motivated," said Serhiy Kryvonos, a retired special forces general and former deputy secretary of the national security and defence council.

.., Look at the experience of Afghanistan. It could not be held by the Soviet Union, by the USA, by the United Kingdom," he said. "They could not beat the Taliban because they were well motivated. Their strongest weapon was their partisans, civilians by day, then at night they took up weapons to shoot or bury a bomb in the road."






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bearister
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9:39p, 2/23/22
Explosions heard in Kiev after Putin says invasion is underway



https://mol.im/a/10545389
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DiabloWags
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9:58p, 2/23/22
Russian tanks coming across the Belarus border will be in Kiev by the morning.
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bearister
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10:13p, 2/23/22
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Sebastabear
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In reply to Anarchistbear • 11:49p, 2/23/22
Anarchistbear said:
I think the "invasion " is over for now. He has re-occupied territory previously invaded and will incrementally try to increase this territory through "partisan" threats . But I don't think tanks are rolling to Kiev despite the media lust for war porn.This is a long game.
Well that didn't take long.
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dajo9
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In reply to Anarchistbear • 12:28a, 2/24/22
Anarchistbear said:
I think the "invasion " is over for now. He has re-occupied territory previously invaded and will incrementally try to increase this territory through "partisan" threats . But I don't think tanks are rolling to Kiev despite the media lust for war porn.This is a long game.


Great analysis [sarcasm]
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sycasey
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6:37a, 2/24/22
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.
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bearister
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6:51a, 2/24/22
Putin's tanks roll into Ukraine over Belarus border amid full invasion

[95 photos and videos]



https://mol.im/a/10545389
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Anarchistbear
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In reply to sycasey • 6:53a, 2/24/22
sycasey said:
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.


The Putin appeasers are Biden and NATO- both of whom committed publicly to not fighting for Ukraine while indulging the fantasy that Ukraine was going to be admitted to NATO.. Given that, the only deterrence was sanctions. I thought Putin would just bleed the Ukraine to death but apparently sanctions are less important than the West believes.
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sycasey
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In reply to Anarchistbear • 7:01a, 2/24/22
Anarchistbear said:
sycasey said:
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.


The Putin appeasers are Biden and NATO- both of whom committed publicly to not fighting for Ukraine while indulging the fantasy that Ukraine was going to be admitted to NATO.. Given that, the only deterrence was sanctions. I thought Putin would just bleed the Ukraine to death but apparently sanctions are less important than the West believes.

LOL. Never change, Anarchistbear.
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Anarchistbear
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In reply to sycasey • 7:04a, 2/24/22
sycasey said:
Anarchistbear said:
sycasey said:
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.


The Putin appeasers are Biden and NATO- both of whom committed publicly to not fighting for Ukraine while indulging the fantasy that Ukraine was going to be admitted to NATO.. Given that, the only deterrence was sanctions. I thought Putin would just bleed the Ukraine to death but apparently sanctions are less important than the West believes.

LOL. Never change, Anarchistbear.


Obviously you can't refute my points.
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sycasey
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In reply to Anarchistbear • 7:06a, 2/24/22
Anarchistbear said:
sycasey said:
Anarchistbear said:
sycasey said:
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.


The Putin appeasers are Biden and NATO- both of whom committed publicly to not fighting for Ukraine while indulging the fantasy that Ukraine was going to be admitted to NATO.. Given that, the only deterrence was sanctions. I thought Putin would just bleed the Ukraine to death but apparently sanctions are less important than the West believes.

LOL. Never change, Anarchistbear.


Obviously you can't refute my points.

Given how badly wrong you've been on this topic to date, I'll just let the march of time do it.
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Anarchistbear
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In reply to sycasey • 7:08a, 2/24/22
sycasey said:
Anarchistbear said:
sycasey said:
Anarchistbear said:
sycasey said:
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.


The Putin appeasers are Biden and NATO- both of whom committed publicly to not fighting for Ukraine while indulging the fantasy that Ukraine was going to be admitted to NATO.. Given that, the only deterrence was sanctions. I thought Putin would just bleed the Ukraine to death but apparently sanctions are less important than the West believes.

LOL. Never change, Anarchistbear.


Obviously you can't refute my points.

Given how badly wrong you've been on this topic to date, I'll just let the march of time do it.


Tell me how you've been right.
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dajo9
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In reply to sycasey • 7:18a, 2/24/22
sycasey said:
I admit, even I didn't think the Putin appeasers would be proven wrong THIS quickly.
The reality is we've been in a soft war with Putin since 2016. Some of us have known that all along. The invasion of Ukraine takes the fake moral ambiguity the Putin appeasers (Trumpers, anarchists, leftist tankies) have been pushing off the table for any rational person.

Anybody in America that is soft on Putin is supporting the destruction of America's democratic ideals. They are either supporters of autocracy in America (that is today's Republican Party) or they are "burn it all down" types. I've been saying for years, there isn't common ground to find with these people. We have to defeat them electorally and with proper law enforcement. We have to respond internally with strength. I'd say with the current views of the American people and the current actions of the Attorney General Merrick Garland - we are losing.
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DiabloWags
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7:25a, 2/24/22

The big concern that I have is how extensive of a Cyber Warfare attack the Russians engage in.

If they mount an extensive cyber-attack, networks that are outside of the Ukraine could very likely be impacted in places like Poland, a member of NATO. In otherwords, such an attack can "bleed" across geographical borders.

That would invoke Article 5.
Then what?

In the meantime, I would hope that Biden and the rest of our trade partners kick the Russians off of the SWIFT banking system and send the Ruble to ZERO.

It will cause a big move up in oil prices (even more so than what we've seen), but I think it's necessary at this point in the game.

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DiabloWags
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In reply to dajo9 • 7:27a, 2/24/22
dajo9 said:


Anybody in America that is soft on Putin is supporting the destruction of America's democratic ideals.

This would be most of the traitors at Faux News who sound like RT more and more every day.
Also people like Candace Owens.
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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:28a, 2/24/22
DiabloWags said:
dajo9 said:


Anybody in America that is soft on Putin is supporting the destruction of America's democratic ideals.

This would be most of the traitors at Faux News who sound like RT more and more every day.
Also people like Candace Owens.
And Tulsi Gabbard. There are plenty.
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bearister
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7:30a, 2/24/22

150 Russian officials, we hardly knew ye.

Over 150 Russian officials sign letter condemning invasion of Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/10546799
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dajo9
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:30a, 2/24/22
DiabloWags said:

The big concern that I have is how extensive of a Cyber Warfare attack the Russians engage in.

If they mount an extensive cyber-attack, networks that are outside of the Ukraine could very likely be impacted in places like Poland, a member of NATO. In otherwords, such an attack can "bleed" across geographical borders.

That would invoke Article 5.
Then what?

In the meantime, I would hope that Biden and the rest of our trade partners kick the Russians off of the SWIFT banking system and send the Ruble to ZERO.

It will cause a big move up in oil prices (even more so than what we've seen), but I think it's necessary at this point in the game.

Short of a military invasion of a NATO ally, Article 5 has to be off the table.

We need to make Russia worry about our cyber warfare.
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dajo9
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In reply to bearister • 7:33a, 2/24/22
bearister said:

150 Russian officials, we hardly knew ye.

Over 150 Russian officials sign letter condemning invasion of Ukraine



https://mol.im/a/10546799
Wow. Those people are really putting themselves at risk.

CNN is reporting that Russian stocks have lost 45% and the ruble has crashed to record lows. I hope Putin understands that sometimes when you win, you lose.
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oski003
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7:36a, 2/24/22
I can't believe the Republicans invaded Ukraine. This is crazy. Democrats won't stand for this!
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