The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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bearister
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The Russians were brutal to civilian German women during WWII….we had some bad actors too, but the Russian stats were cray cray.
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sycasey
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DiabloWags said:

cbbass1 said:



Putin, Zelenskyy, Russians, and Ukrainians are ready for this war to end. The U.S. is still pushing for regime change, escalation, and "giving the sanctions more time to work."

Everyone is ready to make a peace deal, except for the U.S.


There is absolutely no evidence to support your claim.
In fact, quite the opposite.

Putin says peace talks are at a "dead end"

Putin says peace talks at 'dead end,' US 'deeply' concerned about chemical weapons: Live Ukraine updates (yahoo.com)

One of these days, cbbass1 will get tired of being constantly proven wrong about Ukraine and Putin's intentions and rethink his media sources.

I hope.
Unit2Sucks
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Russian media plotting for Russia to interfere in the 2024 election, similar to how they did in the past few elections. I look forward to Republicans pretending that this isn't obvious.

Quote:

The time is coming "to again help our partner Trump to become president," state TV host Evgeny Popov recently declared. On Thursday's edition of the state television show The Evening With Vladimir Soloviev, Putin's pet pundits offered an update on plans for 2024.

"We're trying to feel our way, figuring out the first steps. What can we do in 2023, 2024?," Russian "Americanist" Malek Dudakov, a political scientist specializing in the U.S., said. He suggested that Russia's interference in the upcoming elections is still in its early stages, and that more will be accomplished after the war is over and frosty relations between the U.S. and Russia start to warm up. "When things thaw out and the presidential race for 2024 is firmly on the agenda, there'll be moments we can use," he added. "The most banal approach I can think of is to invite Trumpbefore he announces he's running for Presidentto some future summit in liberated Mariupol."

Dmitry Drobnitsky, an omnipresent "Americanist" on Soloviev's show, suggested that Tulsi Gabbard should be invited along with Trump. Dudakov agreed: "Tulsi Gabbard would also be great. Maybe Trump will take her as his vice-president?" Gabbard has recently become a fixture of state television for her pro-Russian talking points, and has even been described as a "Russian agent" by the Kremlin's propaganda machine.

If state television is any indication, the real agenda of the Kremlin's operatives was never limited to boosting any particular candidates, but rather aimed to harm America as a whole. Dudakov stressed: "With Europe, economic wars should take priority. With America, we should be working to amplify the divisions andin light of our limited abilitiesto deepen the polarization of American society."

He went on: "There is a horrific polarization of society in the United States, very serious conflicts between the Democrats and Republicans that keep expanding. You've already mentioned that America is a dying empireand most empires weren't conquered, they were destroyed from within. The same fate likely awaits America in the near decade. That's why, when all the processes are thawed, Russia might get the chance to play on that."
Russia may not be very good at fighting wars with its military, but have to give them credit for how successfully they meddle in our elections and caused irreparable damage to our nation and people.
Unit2Sucks
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Putin's strategic master stroke of attacking Ukraine to combat NATO creeping to his border has been a Trumpian success. He's pushing Sweden and Finland into NATO's arms and is likely to have another thousand plus KM of NATO border.

dimitrig
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Unit2Sucks said:

Putin's strategic master stroke of attacking Ukraine to combat NATO creeping to his border has been a Trumpian success. He's pushing Sweden and Finland into NATO's arms and is likely to have another thousand plus KM of NATO border.



bearister
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Russia says warship 'seriously damaged' by explosion as Putin builds forces in east Ukraine


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/russia-says-warship-seriously-damaged-by-explosion-as-putin-builds-forces-in-east-ukraine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Captain of Moskva caught on drone camera during attack:

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bearister
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Map: Marco Hernandez/The New York Times. Licensed by Axios

New York Times reporters and photographers produced this stunning map by spending more than a week with officials, coroners and scores of witnesses in Bucha, Ukraine, uncovering details of execution-style atrocities against civilians. Axios
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concordtom
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The map is bad.
But it is wildly INCOMPLETE.

concordtom
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Unit2Sucks said:

Putin's strategic master stroke of attacking Ukraine to combat NATO creeping to his border has been a Trumpian success. He's pushing Sweden and Finland into NATO's arms and is likely to have another thousand plus KM of NATO border.


Perhaps NATO ("NayTO") should rename itself

from
North American Treaty Organization
to the
Not Russia Treaty Organization.

NRTO = "NoRTO"

concordtom
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Unit2Sucks said:


Quote:

Russia may not be very good at fighting wars with its military, but have to give them credit for how successfully they meddle in our elections and caused irreparable damage to our nation and people.

Russia has figured out that it's hard to fight with fists, but easy to trick the mind.

It's all what George Orwell wrote about:



AunBear89
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Ummmmm. . .

Your posts might get taken a bit more seriously if

1) there were far fewer of them
2) you did even a bit of research (the "A" in NATO does NOT stand for American)
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
golden sloth
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If I were Russia right now, I'd be doing everything I can to influence the french election.
bearister
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concordtom said:

Unit2Sucks said:


Quote:

Russia may not be very good at fighting wars with its military, but have to give them credit for how successfully they meddle in our elections and caused irreparable damage to our nation and people.

Russia has figured out that it's hard to fight with fists, but easy to trick the mind.

It's all what George Orwell wrote about:






One of my favorite books, and I thought the Richard Burton/John Hurt movie captured the hopelessness. I need to rewatch it.



* Burton's head literally imploded shortly after that movie as a result of a lifetime of major boozing.
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concordtom
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AunBear89 said:

Ummmmm. . .

Your posts might get taken a bit more seriously if

1) there were far fewer of them
2) you did even a bit of research (the "A" in NATO does NOT stand for American)
Sorry.
Atlantic.

Thx for the correction.
I don't need you to take that post seriously. It was a tongue in cheek pun.

You might still consider NATO to be the Not Russia Treaty Organization - because that's what it's becoming, what is has been and is. And you don't have to thank me for pointing that out - because it's kind of obvious.

Russia is a pariah state, and will implode, just like it's predecessor Soviet state.
Sebastabear
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I love how Russia is saying their flagship sank "because of a storm". I mean I realize that Russia is growing increasingly allergic to things like "facts" but as a clue, it doesn't seem overly credible to say their flagship in an active warzone sank because of an "accidental fire" and a "storm". Yeah right.

golden sloth
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Sebastabear said:

I love how Russia is saying their flagship sank "because of a storm". I mean I realize that Russia is growing increasingly allergic to things like "facts" but as a clue, it doesn't seem overly credible to say their flagship in an active warzone sank because of an "accidental fire" and a "storm". Yeah right.




I think its debatable which is more embarrassing. If the US lost an aircraft carrier, I would kind of rather have it be because it was hit with enemy fire, rather than an accident and a storm.

On the one hand, the enemy can say they sunk it, on the other hand, is that better than saying we sunk are own ship?

And what kind of ship cant take a bit of weather?

And yes, I realize it's has not actually sunk.
Unit2Sucks
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golden sloth said:

Sebastabear said:

I love how Russia is saying their flagship sank "because of a storm". I mean I realize that Russia is growing increasingly allergic to things like "facts" but as a clue, it doesn't seem overly credible to say their flagship in an active warzone sank because of an "accidental fire" and a "storm". Yeah right.




I think its debatable which is more embarrassing.
Claims are being made that it's been sunk. It's probably not a good sign when a country with no navy is able to sink a ship named after your capital city.
Sebastabear
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Unit2Sucks said:

golden sloth said:

Sebastabear said:

I love how Russia is saying their flagship sank "because of a storm". I mean I realize that Russia is growing increasingly allergic to things like "facts" but as a clue, it doesn't seem overly credible to say their flagship in an active warzone sank because of an "accidental fire" and a "storm". Yeah right.




I think its debatable which is more embarrassing.
Claims are being made that it's been sunk. It's probably not a good sign when a country with no navy is able to sink a ship named after your capital city.
Yeah, the Wall Street Journal and others are reporting that it sank. Not that it is sinking. That it's gone. Crazy.
golden sloth
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Sebastabear said:

Unit2Sucks said:

golden sloth said:

Sebastabear said:

I love how Russia is saying their flagship sank "because of a storm". I mean I realize that Russia is growing increasingly allergic to things like "facts" but as a clue, it doesn't seem overly credible to say their flagship in an active warzone sank because of an "accidental fire" and a "storm". Yeah right.




I think its debatable which is more embarrassing.
Claims are being made that it's been sunk. It's probably not a good sign when a country with no navy is able to sink a ship named after your capital city.
Yeah, the Wall Street Journal and others are reporting that it sank. Not that it is sinking. That it's gone. Crazy.


Yea, the first report I saw said it was being towed back to port, that has since changed. I had heard that the Russians had 12 black sea navy vessels and they are now down to 10. That is 17% of their fleet being sunk by a military that has no counter navy.

Also dont underestimate the value of reopening odessa to shipping. It's far easier and cheaper to ship supplies and material via sea than rail and truck.
Unit2Sucks
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concordtom
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This war is going to get far uglier. Escalation all the way around.
Putin is going to lob long range munitions into more ukrainian cities. Oh, wait - I just turned on CNN and that exact thing has happened.

And to respond to the West sending in endless arms, Putin is going to retaliate.
The sinking of the Moskva warship is going to see the sudden sinking of some western (US?) ship.
Who did it? How did that happen? Nobody will know, and Russia will deny.

Remember how anthrax showed up after 9/11?
Remember that Russian who was mysteriously poisoned in London?
Yeah... Putin is going to go down swinging. He might even use a small nuke somewhere just to let the West know what's at stake.

How does the West respond to that? How CAN the West respond to a nuke? There is no choice I see viable, other than an insider assassination.






"The only winning move is not to play."
concordtom
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bearister
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…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.

Russian arms killed lots our soldiers in Vietnam and the The Crusades Redux.
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Sebastabear
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Unit2Sucks said:

golden sloth said:

Sebastabear said:

I love how Russia is saying their flagship sank "because of a storm". I mean I realize that Russia is growing increasingly allergic to things like "facts" but as a clue, it doesn't seem overly credible to say their flagship in an active warzone sank because of an "accidental fire" and a "storm". Yeah right.




I think its debatable which is more embarrassing.
Claims are being made that it's been sunk. It's probably not a good sign when a country with no navy is able to sink a ship named after your capital city.
U.S. confirmation now that the ship was sunk by Ukrainian missiles. Have to add this "onboard fire" to the long litany of things Russia has lied about during this war. And yet some on here keep focusing on "American disinformation" even though everything we've said about this conflict has been proven true and literally every word out of Russia is a lie.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/15/world/europe/russia-moskva-warship-ukraine-missiles.html
concordtom
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bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.
golden sloth
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concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.
sycasey
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golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.

The state of their current invasion should also not inspire confidence in Russia's ability to competently execute a nuclear attack. Are we sure they wouldn't just hit themselves with their own missiles?
concordtom
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golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.
Well, I certainly hope you are right - that would obviously be a great relief from my imagined possible outcome.
Thank you for the optimism.

Perhaps you can tell me what you think is rational about what Putin is doing, rational in HIS mind (admittedly), that is.
concordtom
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sycasey said:

golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.

The state of their current invasion should also not inspire confidence in Russia's ability to competently execute a nuclear attack. Are we sure they wouldn't just hit themselves with their own missiles?
I dunno. Seems like they are doing a pretty good job of blowing up Ukraine.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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concordtom said:

sycasey said:

golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.

The state of their current invasion should also not inspire confidence in Russia's ability to competently execute a nuclear attack. Are we sure they wouldn't just hit themselves with their own missiles?
I dunno. Seems like they are doing a pretty good job of blowing up Ukraine.
Call me a pessimist, but I figure the Russians will aim their missiles at Kyiv and hit Chernobyl.
Cal88
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golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.

Agreed. Russia's main objective is to encircle the ~60k strong Ukrainian forces on the Donbass front, which I think they will achieve within the next 2-4 weeks. These forces are the main Ukrainian army body outside of the cities, without which Russia will have a free rein over the entire eastern bank of the Dniepr river.

Their next objective will be Nikolayev then Odessa, Russia is ultimately planning on breaking up Ukraine in 2 or 3 parts, with the Russian/russophone-majority area either forming a new state or being outright annexed, and possibly the southwestern Rusyn region seceding and/or going to Hungary. Basically Russia wants to break up Ukraine along ethnic lines, the same way NATO broke up Yugoslavia in the 1990s or the US broke up Iraq in the 00s.
golden sloth
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concordtom said:

golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.
Well, I certainly hope you are right - that would obviously be a great relief from my imagined possible outcome.
Thank you for the optimism.

Perhaps you can tell me what you think is rational about what Putin is doing, rational in HIS mind (admittedly), that is.

I don't know if the motivation was security or greed, but I think Putin's original goal was subjugate Ukraine and wither annex it or turn it into a puppet state.

I don't know if I believe al the arguments from folks like George Freidman and Peter Zeihan that use geographic determinism to predict future conflicts, of which they both believe that Putin and Russia were trying to expand to reclaim their old Soviet borders, which actually would mean Russia would have less border to defend (due to natural geographic barriers). I also don't believe John Mearsheimer who claims this is the west's fault because they expanded NATO and felt threatened. In either case, the underpinnings of both of those arguments are rational when choosing to invade a country.

I do think Putin saw the pending Russian demographic collapse and the fracturing NATO and decided now was the time to invade. He obviously misunderstood the Ukrainian response, but I still think its rational. Just like I think it is rational he is withdrawing from Kyiv and choosing to focus on the east. That is all rational to me.
golden sloth
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concordtom
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

concordtom said:

sycasey said:

golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.

The state of their current invasion should also not inspire confidence in Russia's ability to competently execute a nuclear attack. Are we sure they wouldn't just hit themselves with their own missiles?
I dunno. Seems like they are doing a pretty good job of blowing up Ukraine.
Call me a pessimist, but I figure the Russians will aim their missiles at Kyiv and hit Chernobyl.
But only when they know that the wind is blowing southeast. Ooops!
concordtom
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Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

concordtom said:

bearister said:

…been thinking same. Plenty of terror groups willing to take his funding and go on a mission.
Yeah.
It seems pretty likely.

He can explode a small nuke somewhere in Ukraine, and what's the response going to be?
I mean, play it out....
The West could then send massive non-nukes and soldiers and planes into Ukraine and begin to wipe Putin out. But then he can send nukes to blow up our positions en masse.
He can then decide to blow up Warsaw if he doesn't like Poland. Or London if he doesn't like London. Where does it end? Will we launch a strike on Moscow? No. We cannot. Because then the WarGames scenario is on.

This only will end when Putin is taken out. Who is going to be the Valkyrie hero??? (I don't suppose we can get any type of agent in there....)
Any "Von Stauffenberg" type isn't going to show up until Putin endangers the entire planet. Even then....

US and NATO needs to be employing Psychological Ops with Russians.
We can't win this with helicopters and missiles. Dude has gone mad mad mad.
I hope we have James Bond and Q working on this.


I disagree with your premise. In spite of me not approving the actions of Russia, and believing they have miscalculated their assumptions, I do think Putin is acting rationally, and I do think he wants to avoid nuclear war.

I dont see the constant escalation you are talking about. NATO continues to supply Ukraine, but not commit to troops in Ukraine. This has not changed from the war's outset.

Agreed. Russia's main objective is to encircle the ~60k strong Ukrainian forces on the Donbass front, which I think they will achieve within the next 2-4 weeks. These forces are the main Ukrainian army body outside of the cities, without which Russia will have a free rein over the entire eastern bank of the Dniepr river.

Their next objective will be Nikolayev then Odessa, Russia is ultimately planning on breaking up Ukraine in 2 or 3 parts, with the Russian/russophone-majority area either forming a new state or being outright annexed, and possibly the southwestern Rusyn region seceding and/or going to Hungary. Basically Russia wants to break up Ukraine along ethnic lines, the same way NATO broke up Yugoslavia in the 1990s or the US broke up Iraq in the 00s.
Perhaps.
But I wonder..... If I have anything to do with it, Russia's economy will forever be shut out from the Rest of World. And I think that's what's going to happen - so what has he gained?
Perhaps merely a massive miscalculation, and what he's left with is his new little pile of ****.
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