The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Unit2Sucks
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Russia is so bad at pretending that it cares about Nazis in Ukraine.


BearForce2
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Trump said Putin uses the N word all the time.

The Russia-Ukraine catastrophe is in a way already a world war and if leaders are not "smart" it will result in a nuclear battle, former US President Donald Trump says as the "best predictor of things ever".


Mr Trump said his message for Russia's Vladimir Putin would be to tell him his action are a "shame" while spruiking a change of diplomatic tactics.

"They're dealing with him incorrectly, I think what they're saying it's almost like they're speaking with fear," Mr Trump said.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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BearForce2 said:



Trump said Putin uses the N word all the time.

The Russia-Ukraine catastrophe is in a way already a world war and if leaders are not "smart" it will result in a nuclear battle, former US President Donald Trump says as the "best predictor of things ever".


Mr Trump said his message for Russia's Vladimir Putin would be to tell him his action are a "shame" while spruiking a change of diplomatic tactics.

"They're dealing with him incorrectly, I think what they're saying it's almost like they're speaking with fear," Mr Trump said.
Spruiking? What does that mean?
bearister
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Interviewer:
"One of the criticisms leveled against you is that you are willing to fight for an army that has been accused of mistreating people of African descent and serving an international training ground for white supremacists.

Malcolm Nance:

"The Ukrainian army is 250,000 people who are mostly white and mostly male. You know where I can actually show you more Nazis? Aside from the US army, that is? Russia's Wagner Group is filled with Nazis. The leader of their group of mercenaries has all sorts of Nazi tattoos all over his body."


Malcolm Nance, TV pundit turned fighter in Ukraine: 'I believe in the defense of democracy'


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/29/malcolm-nance-msnbc-pundit-ukraine-soldier-michael-harriot?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Big C
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:



Trump said Putin uses the N word all the time.

The Russia-Ukraine catastrophe is in a way already a world war and if leaders are not "smart" it will result in a nuclear battle, former US President Donald Trump says as the "best predictor of things ever".


Mr Trump said his message for Russia's Vladimir Putin would be to tell him his action are a "shame" while spruiking a change of diplomatic tactics.

"They're dealing with him incorrectly, I think what they're saying it's almost like they're speaking with fear," Mr Trump said.
Spruiking? What does that mean?

That's the official word for cave exploring. The Donbas is known worldwide for its abundance of caves.
Unit2Sucks
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All those wingnuts waiting for the rapture who are rootin for Putin will like this video.

sonofabear51
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Wow! Guess we know where the blueprint for the GQP Right Wing Nut Job party is located

Holy Wah!!
going4roses
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Tell someone you love them and try to have a good day
dimitrig
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

BearForce2 said:



Trump said Putin uses the N word all the time.

The Russia-Ukraine catastrophe is in a way already a world war and if leaders are not "smart" it will result in a nuclear battle, former US President Donald Trump says as the "best predictor of things ever".


Mr Trump said his message for Russia's Vladimir Putin would be to tell him his action are a "shame" while spruiking a change of diplomatic tactics.

"They're dealing with him incorrectly, I think what they're saying it's almost like they're speaking with fear," Mr Trump said.
Spruiking? What does that mean?


Something my girlfriend in college would do when she had too much to drink.

bearister
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Putin 'will have cancer operation and transfer power', insider claims



https://mol.im/a/10770541
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bearister
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Data: UN Satellite Center, State Department, Maxar Technologies. Graphic: Associated Press

"This graphic annotates a satellite image to show Russian attacks on the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, where Ukrainian defenders and hundreds of civilians are sheltering.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Mariupol, once one of the country's most developed cities, is now a "Russian concentration camp among the ruins." Axios

Pat Buchanan has a laundry list of well known personal issues. With that said, his articles discussing history and foreign policy events are always thought provoking:

Will Putin Submit to US-Imposed 'Weakening'? Patrick J. Buchanan Official Website


https://buchanan.org/blog/will-putin-submit-to-us-imposed-weakening-159337

First Priority Avoid US War With Russia Patrick J. Buchanan Official Website


https://buchanan.org/blog/first-priority-avoid-us-war-with-russia-159314
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BearForce2
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Steve Carell Pentagon Theater
golden sloth
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bearister said:


Data: UN Satellite Center, State Department, Maxar Technologies. Graphic: Associated Press

"This graphic annotates a satellite image to show Russian attacks on the Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, where Ukrainian defenders and hundreds of civilians are sheltering.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Mariupol, once one of the country's most developed cities, is now a "Russian concentration camp among the ruins." Axios

Pat Buchanan has a laundry list of well known personal issues. With that said, his articles discussing history and foreign policy events are always thought provoking:

Will Putin Submit to US-Imposed 'Weakening'? Patrick J. Buchanan Official Website


https://buchanan.org/blog/will-putin-submit-to-us-imposed-weakening-159337

First Priority Avoid US War With Russia Patrick J. Buchanan Official Website


https://buchanan.org/blog/first-priority-avoid-us-war-with-russia-159314



I dont like Buchanan's framing this as America's war with Russia because it is not. Russia chose to invade a sovereign nation in Ukraine, they are the aggressors.

I also disagree with the idea that the US is setting up a forever war for russia in Ukraine, because again, Russia is the aggressor, it is Russian actions that are causing a united western response. Nothing prevents Russia from withdrawing other than their own ego. If Russia doesn't want a forever war, they can stop invading.

I also don't like the idea that the US is using Ukraine to do their fighting for them, as we are supplying them weapons and support at Ukraine's request. We are not forcing them to fight, they are choosing to fight, we are simply providing them the tools to fight.

As for the nuclear question, I'll go on a side tangent. I dont know if we want regime change in Russia. If Putin's dynasty falls, and Russia becomes destabilized, I worry about parts of the nuclear arsenal falling into local warlord hands. When Hussein fell and a power vacuum developed, it allowed ISIS to capture the north of the country. This was a far more radical and dangerous group than Hussein. Imagine if they would have had inherited nuclear weapons.
Cal88
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There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.

sycasey
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The Donbas separatist groups are almost certainly supported by or even run by the Russian government. It's not like it's just some organic movement that grew out of nowhere. It's actual foreign interference.
golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.



Russia opened a multi-pronged attack because they were stupid and thought Ukraine wanted to be liberated. Russia abandoned this plan when they realized they were too incompetent logistically to support a war that far into hostile territory.

Also Russia is not 'defending' the Donbass just like Russia was not 'De-Nazifying Ukraine' before. They are conquering the Donbass, and either are setting up an autonomous region with a puppet government similar to South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, or they will straight up annex it as in Crimea or what they plan to do with Transnistria. Russian expansionism cannot be denied, if you look at recent history over the last 20 years, Russia has been pushing outward and prying territory away from other sovereign countries. Russia is the aggressor and their actions are not acceptable.

The annexation of Crimea was totally illegal and invalid, this is why the world united with sanctions, therefore the referendum you reference is not applicable.

Russia's current strategy of blowing everything up and moving forward is slower than other tactics, but makes the occupation of that territory easier on the back end as all infrastructure partisans could use to wage a guerilla war is gone and all the civilians have had their homes destroyed and were thus forced to flee or they were killed. Again this leads to an easier occupation as the partisans can't blend with the civilians,

I do agree with your 'endgame'. Russia wants to take the east and the south, and they are trying to push all the civilians and locals out of the region (hence their current tactics) so they can resettle and occupy the territory after. Taking the south will weaken Ukraine in the long-term as it cripples their ability to trade and export. Then when Russia is ready they can either install a puppet government (similar to Belarus) or straight up conquer it like Russia wanted to do originally.
Sebastabear
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Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.


This must be why the Russians have been greeted as "liberators" in eastern Ukraine and haven't done anything like blowing up entire towns full of "their" citizens. Since you are living in January let me give you some investing advice - sell your equities and bonds. Go all in on Twitter. Trust me.
Cal88
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Sebastabear said:

Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.


This must be why the Russians have been greeted as "liberators" in eastern Ukraine and haven't done anything like blowing up entire towns full of "their" citizens. Since you are living in January let me give you some investing advice - sell your equities and bonds. Go all in on Twitter. Trust me.

That was very much the case in the eastern Ukraine oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk. In Mariupol and Kherson as well there is a large share of the locals, probably a small majority, who will get along fairly well under Russian tutelage, much like Crimeans did.

The Azov Battalion that was stationed in Mariupol wasn't particularly popular with the locals, their brand of western Ukrainian nationalism clashing with the local Russian-speaking culture, which is much closer to that of Crimea than the culture of Kiev or Lviv. The further north and west you get from there, the higher the support for the central Ukrainian government.
dajo9
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Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.




The Russian propaganda is strong with this one. How much did you have to pay out in the 2020 election when Biden defeated Trump?
Cal88
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^Pretty much par for the course of your contributions, zero useful content, low-IQ posting consisting of personal attacks that range from the lame to the outright psychotic, like the many times where you were bold and stupid enough to assert without irony that my handle was a secret nazi code.
oski003
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Cal88 said:

^Pretty much par for the course of your contributions, zero useful content, low-IQ posting consisting of personal attacks that range from the lame to the outright psychotic, like the many times where you were bold and stupid enough to assert without irony that my handle was a secret nazi code.


+1 billion
Unit2Sucks
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Cal88 said:

^Pretty much par for the course of your contributions, zero useful content, low-IQ posting consisting of personal attacks that range from the lame to the outright psychotic, like the many times where you were bold and stupid enough to assert without irony that my handle was a secret nazi code.
The thing is that you always make predictions that are consistent with Putin's aims and your predictions are always wrong. Haven't you noticed that by now? It's been pointed out to you over and over again. I don't have the time and energy to go back and find earlier statements by you but I imagine you've predicted Russia would have won the war by now previously and other claims that look ridiculous in retrospect. No different from all of the horrible takes you had on COVID like when you said in July 2020 that we were a mere few weeks away from the end of COVID, just like Europe. Maybe it's time to get out of the predictions game or just admit that you are pushing Putin propaganda and trying to pretend like your geopolitical takes are worth engaging with.
MinotStateBeav
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Like I said weeks ago..this moron is in it for the PR. Mr. TooHighValueTarget.

golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.


One other thing I noticed. Look at the first image, its totally not a good-faith piece of information. Specifically, look at the % splits:
- Over 75%
- 25 - 75%
- 5 - 25%
- Under 5%

The big blob of red you see that takes up maybe 40 - 50% of Ukraine falls in that Red zone, yet when you look at what that color represents, its 25 - 75%. That is literally half of the potential outcomes. Per the image, those zones could be 30% Russian and 70% Ukrainian, yet the way the image is set up implies that the red zones are majority Russian.
sycasey
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golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.


One other thing I noticed. Look at the first image, its totally not a good-faith piece of information. Specifically, look at the % splits:
- Over 75%
- 25 - 75%
- 5 - 25%
- Under 5%

The big blob of red you see that takes up maybe 40 - 50% of Ukraine falls in that Red zone, yet when you look at what that color represents, its 25 - 75%. That is literally half of the potential outcomes. Per the image, those zones could be 30% Russian and 70% Ukrainian, yet the way the image is set up implies that the red zones are majority Russian.

Cal88? Presenting biased and misrepresented graphics? No!
sycasey
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oski003 said:

Cal88 said:

^Pretty much par for the course of your contributions, zero useful content, low-IQ posting consisting of personal attacks that range from the lame to the outright psychotic, like the many times where you were bold and stupid enough to assert without irony that my handle was a secret nazi code.


+1 billion

Dajo had Cal88 pegged as a Russian propagandist years ago and has been proven 100% right.
BearForce2
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bearister said:

Interviewer:
"One of the criticisms leveled against you is that you are willing to fight for an army that has been accused of mistreating people of African descent and serving an international training ground for white supremacists.

Malcolm Nance:

"The Ukrainian army is 250,000 people who are mostly white and mostly male. You know where I can actually show you more Nazis? Aside from the US army, that is? Russia's Wagner Group is filled with Nazis. The leader of their group of mercenaries has all sorts of Nazi tattoos all over his body."


Malcolm Nance, TV pundit turned fighter in Ukraine: 'I believe in the defense of democracy'


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/29/malcolm-nance-msnbc-pundit-ukraine-soldier-michael-harriot?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other


Thank you for brining up Malcom Nance again, he's a gift that keeps on giving.
Cal88
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golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.


One other thing I noticed. Look at the first image, its totally not a good-faith piece of information. Specifically, look at the % splits:
- Over 75%
- 25 - 75%
- 5 - 25%
- Under 5%

The big blob of red you see that takes up maybe 40 - 50% of Ukraine falls in that Red zone, yet when you look at what that color represents, its 25 - 75%. That is literally half of the potential outcomes. Per the image, those zones could be 30% Russian and 70% Ukrainian, yet the way the image is set up implies that the red zones are majority Russian.

Here are some maps with finer graduation of the Ukrainian ethno-linguistic gradient:


Legend: Linguistic Map of Ukraine, utilizing 2009 information from the Kiev National Linguistic University and data from the 2001 Ukrainian Census. Note that Ukrainian is highlighted in yellow. The mixed Russian-Ukrainian language Surzhyk is in orange. Russian is in red. Carpathian Ruthenian (spoken in Zakarpattia) is in the red-violet color. The Bulgarian, Greek, Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, Crimean Tatar, and Trasianka (Belarusian) minorities are also highlighted.

a map from Wiki




This is a good article summarizing that divide, from 2014, after the first political crisis in Ukraine, with a more detailed map:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielmitchell/2014/03/03/ukraine-ethnic-division-decentralization-and-secession/?sh=446b07984035




Excerpts from that article:

Ukraine, Ethnic Division, Decentralization, and Secession
Daniel J. Mitchell

Simply stated, Ukraine will not be stable until and unless there is some mechanism allowing substantial self-governance for the parts of the country that are ethnically Russian.
To understand, look at the linguistic map of Ukraine. The red parts of the country show where Russian is the primary language and most people presumably are ethnically Russian.

Now look at these maps (from here, here, here, and here) showing various election results in the country.


Even folks with no expertise in foreign policy can probably detect a pattern. Isn't it obvious that the Ukrainians and the ethnic Russians in Ukraine have fundamentally different preferences?
No wonder there's conflict. It seems there are two options.
1. Secession - what happened to the former Soviet Union. Czechoslovakia Yugoslavia
2. Decentralization - Swiss model of radical decentralization.







Unit2Sucks
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Cal88 has cute stories but none of this has anything to do with why his comrade Putin invaded Ukraine and is having his troops committing thousands upon thousands of war crimes.

For some reason, Cal88 will continue to ignore the atrocities and the fact that nothing he's talking about was a precursor or justification for invasion.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion....
One other thing I noticed. Look at the first image, its totally not a good-faith piece of information. Specifically, look at the % splits:
- Over 75%
- 25 - 75%
- 5 - 25%
- Under 5%

The big blob of red you see that takes up maybe 40 - 50% of Ukraine falls in that Red zone, yet when you look at what that color represents, its 25 - 75%. That is literally half of the potential outcomes. Per the image, those zones could be 30% Russian and 70% Ukrainian, yet the way the image is set up implies that the red zones are majority Russian.

Cal88? Presenting biased and misrepresented graphics? No!


If you had a modicum of understanding on the subject, or a somewhat reasonable argument to refute the clear graphic evidence provided by the maps I've presented, which are of independent academic nature, you might have done better than resorting to a dumb personal attack.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Cal88 has cute stories but none of this has anything to do with why his comrade Putin invaded Ukraine and is having his troops committing thousands upon thousands of war crimes.

For some reason, Cal88 will continue to ignore the atrocities and the fact that nothing he's talking about was a precursor or justification for invasion.

Perhaps Sycasey (who likes to refer to his message board counterparts in the third person) might not have a good picture of what has been going on in Ukraine since 2014, or Sycasey might not have seen videos of captured Russian POWs being shot in the legs with AKs and left to bleed to death, of persons like a famous Jewish MMA champion being tortured to death by the Azov crowd for the crime of having trained with Russians, of Russophones, including women and children, suspected of being sympathetic to the other side being tortured on public squares.

Here are some links that Sycasey might consider in order to gain some perspective on the nature of the ethnic hatred at the root of this conflict:

https://www.mmanews.com/2022/03/ukrainian-mma-fighter-tortured/

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe/ukrainian-civilians-stripped-tied-up-and-beaten-by-vigilantes-in-shocking-videos/news-story/3a2abcc0a87815925dce0db9cee1c09a

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/23/ukr--m23.html

This is the protest that precipitated the uprising in the Donbas, the 2014 massacre in Odessa where dozens of Russophone protestors were burned alive while Ukrainian nationalists cheered:



Journalist Robert Parry on the 2014 Odessa Massacre:
Quote:

"The brutality of these neo-Nazis surfaced again on May 2 when right-wing toughs in Odessa attacked an encampment of ethnic Russian protesters driving them into a trade union building which was then set on fire with Molotov cocktails. As the building was engulfed in flames, some people who tried to flee were chased and beaten, while those trapped inside heard the Ukrainian nationalists liken them to black-and-red-striped potato beetles called Colorados, because those colors are used in pro-Russian ribbons.
'Burn, Colorado, burn' went the chant.
As the fire worsened, those dying inside were serenaded with the taunting singing of the Ukrainian national anthem. The building also was spray-painted with Swastika-like symbols and graffiti reading 'Galician SS,' a reference to the Ukrainian nationalist army that fought alongside the German Nazi SS in World War II, killing Russians on the eastern front."
Sparked Donbass Rebellion
"This event became the trigger for the uprising in the Donbass," Repression of the Left and Dissenters in Ukraine said. Eight days after the Odessa massacre, coup resisters in the far eastern provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk, bordering on Russia, voted in a referendum to become independent from Ukraine.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/04/30/curfew-for-anniversary-of-odessa-massacre-that-sparked-rebellion/

Bottom line is that this is a violent ethnic conflict that flared up in 2014, that was undoubtedly also fueled by the wider geopolitical dynamics highlighted by Prof. Mearsheimer. There were 14,000 mostly civilian deaths even before Putin's army barged into Ukraine.


Unit2Sucks
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None of that has anything to do with why Putin invaded Ukraine. Hard for me to imagine you being so naive as to believe their half hearted propaganda. There are more anti semites in the Russian military than in Ukraine and as demonstrates upthread, the Russian disinformation machine is producing laughably bad examples of pretend Ukrainian anti semitic content. It's comical and no reasonably attentive person would fall for it.

What's remarkable about you is that you genuinely seem to adopt a wholehearted world view that is entirely consistent with Putin which requires elaborate and meticulous research replete with graphs, foreign sources, etc and ignore all obvious evidence to the contrary. You believe Putin's propaganda more than the average Russian. It's really enjoyable to have you show up and make these quite ridiculous arguments when the truth is staring everyone in the face. As with all of your other elaborate fanciful notions, you will be proven laughably wrong here as well and people who are paying attention will continue to remind everyone else why you have no credibility.



This is a good read: https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/08/02/russian-disinformation-distorted-reality-in-ukraine-americans-should-take-note-putin-mueller-elections-antisemitism/
golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.

This is also what drove Russian tactics of their multipronged attack and their move on Kiev, they opened up several fronts in order to pin large elements of Ukrainian troops in the defense of Kiev, preventing them from reinforcing the main Ukrainian army on the Donbass front.

The main reason for this war is that Ukraine in its current borders is an amalgam of two major cultures, western/central Ukrainian, and Russian culture.



Restrictions on the use of the Russian language have been imposed over the entire country, preventing the use of Russian in the school system, public administration and mass media. Those restrictions were extended by the Zelensky government. He run on a platform of inclusion, himself being a Russian speaker, but that platform was reversed due to the fact that the backbone of his government are Ukrainian nationalists who are totally unwilling to compromise on this issue, and who furthermore will not recognize Crimea, a region with >80% Russians that has voted to join Russia, as a Russian territory.

The endgame now is clear, Russia is going to carve out the Russian regions of Ukraine (in red on the map above), regions that were lumped into Ukraine in 1922 by Lenin (in pink below), at a time when the main adversary of his Bolshevik regime were Russian nationalists. The Soviets relied on the peripheral countries of the USSR in order to counterbalance and subdue Russian identity, which stood against their internationalist communist ideology.


One other thing I noticed. Look at the first image, its totally not a good-faith piece of information. Specifically, look at the % splits:
- Over 75%
- 25 - 75%
- 5 - 25%
- Under 5%

The big blob of red you see that takes up maybe 40 - 50% of Ukraine falls in that Red zone, yet when you look at what that color represents, its 25 - 75%. That is literally half of the potential outcomes. Per the image, those zones could be 30% Russian and 70% Ukrainian, yet the way the image is set up implies that the red zones are majority Russian.

Here are some maps with finer graduation of the Ukrainian ethno-linguistic gradient:


Legend: Linguistic Map of Ukraine, utilizing 2009 information from the Kiev National Linguistic University and data from the 2001 Ukrainian Census. Note that Ukrainian is highlighted in yellow. The mixed Russian-Ukrainian language Surzhyk is in orange. Russian is in red. Carpathian Ruthenian (spoken in Zakarpattia) is in the red-violet color. The Bulgarian, Greek, Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, Crimean Tatar, and Trasianka (Belarusian) minorities are also highlighted.

a map from Wiki




This is a good article summarizing that divide, from 2014, after the first political crisis in Ukraine, with a more detailed map:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielmitchell/2014/03/03/ukraine-ethnic-division-decentralization-and-secession/?sh=446b07984035




Excerpts from that article:

Ukraine, Ethnic Division, Decentralization, and Secession
Daniel J. Mitchell

Simply stated, Ukraine will not be stable until and unless there is some mechanism allowing substantial self-governance for the parts of the country that are ethnically Russian.
To understand, look at the linguistic map of Ukraine. The red parts of the country show where Russian is the primary language and most people presumably are ethnically Russian.

Now look at these maps (from here, here, here, and here) showing various election results in the country.


Even folks with no expertise in foreign policy can probably detect a pattern. Isn't it obvious that the Ukrainians and the ethnic Russians in Ukraine have fundamentally different preferences?
No wonder there's conflict. It seems there are two options.
1. Secession - what happened to the former Soviet Union. Czechoslovakia Yugoslavia
2. Decentralization - Swiss model of radical decentralization.

Just because you speak Russian doesn't mean you want to be a part of Russia. Plenty of people in California speak Spanish, very few want to join Mexico, Spain or another spanish speaking country. I was on a date with an Argentinean woman last weekend, she was telling me about growing up in Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires, in both places, if you want a professional job (doctor, lawyer, etc.) you learned English. But again, knowing English doesn't mean you want to join the US or UK. I point that out because one of the high concentration of Russian speaking people appeared to be Kyiv, which obviously rather strongly displayed they did not want to be a part of Russia recently. After centuries of domination by Russia, it would make sense that speaking Russian became common place, but again. that does not mean they want to be apart of Russia.

Using an election map to show the country's divisions is not a good argument. Just because someone lost an election, doesn't mean you want to leave the country, or the country is doomed to be split apart. Someone can just as easily show a map of other countries and make the same claims.
MinotStateBeav
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This older Russian woman in 2014 called it re: Crimea/Donbas

Cal88
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golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

There was an ongoing war between Donbass separatists and the central Ukrainian government that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 dead (most of which were Donbass civilians). The frontlines in that war had been stable up to this winter, but the Ukrainian government was preparing to mount a major offensive with up to 100,000 troops massing on that frontline. This is what precipitated the timing of the Russian invasion.


Just because you speak Russian doesn't mean you want to be a part of Russia. Plenty of people in California speak Spanish, very few want to join Mexico, Spain or another spanish speaking country. I was on a date with an Argentinean woman last weekend, she was telling me about growing up in Sao Paulo and Buenos Aires, in both places, if you want a professional job (doctor, lawyer, etc.) you learned English. But again, knowing English doesn't mean you want to join the US or UK. I point that out because one of the high concentration of Russian speaking people appeared to be Kyiv, which obviously rather strongly displayed they did not want to be a part of Russia recently. After centuries of domination by Russia, it would make sense that speaking Russian became common place, but again. that does not mean they want to be apart of Russia.

Using an election map to show the country's divisions is not a good argument. Just because someone lost an election, doesn't mean you want to leave the country, or the country is doomed to be split apart. Someone can just as easily show a map of other countries and make the same claims.

Bold part above - that is probably true of Kiev, but certainly not of Crimea, or of the Donetxk or Luhansk oblasts.

You're also missing out the main aspect of the language divide as it relates to Ukraine after 2014, the fact that the use of the Russian language was officially restricted nationwide. How do you think Quebecers, who voted to stay in Canada twice, would feel if the use of French were banned in schools, universities, local TVs and government?!?

Zelensky run on an inclusive platform and vowed to protect language rights in the east and south, he turned 180 degrees after his election, because he is closely allied to the far right. His oligarch protector, Kolomoisky, who has launched Zelensky's political career and built up his Mr Smith Goes to Washington persona is also the major funder of several neo-nazi militias like the Azov Battalion.

Here's a Zelensky's pre-election pro-Russian minority pitch:


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