Unit2Sucks said:

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Has Cal88 ever explained why he roots so hard for Putin and Russia?

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I am rooting for the best outcome for Ukraine primarily, and moreover, for the rest of the world, in view of the economic repercussions on the developing world and inflationary pressures, not to mention the real possibility of a nuclear escalation.

FYI, I actually have skin in this game, having extended family in Ukraine, primarily in Dnipro and Odessa. Thankfully my stepnephew, who is of prime military age, and most of my stepsister's family got out to Poland and Slovakia back in March. It took her 6 days to make that journey, including 3 days at the border, where she and her 89 yo mother slept in her car.

At the risk of repeating myself, all of this could have been avoided simply by Zelensky's govt abiding by the Minsk agreement. Ukraine would have still remained the biggest country in Europe, war would have been averted, the loss of 100,000 lives and the destruction of the country.

Our disagreement is primarily based on a wide difference in understanding the basic aspects of the domestic conflict in Ukraine, as well as the geopolitical dynamics undergirding that situation, which have been well covered by Mearsheimer et al. There has been a civil war that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 mostly civilian deaths in the Donbass.

A lot of this situation stems from the current leadership vacuum following Merkel's retirement, Macron is not able to fill her shoes, Boris is a warmonger, and Scholz did try to put together a last minute proposal with the 3 terms (NATO neutrality, Donbass autonomy, recognition of Crimea as Russian), but he lacked the authority to impose his proposal, which in retrospect is going to look like a win-win for all parties.

We've sunk in an unstopable war dynamic now that is not going to abate until Russia takes over all of old Novorossiya, because the military confrontation is largely one-sided. We, the collective West, have pushed Ukraine to fight a war it cannot win, "leading it on the primrose trail" in a war that is going to "wreck Ukraine" to use Mearcheimer's 2015 prophetic exact statements.

There is a cynical element within US and UK policymaker circles that is very content with that situation and the use of Ukrainian fodder in an attempt to bleed Russia. There is also a lot of hubris in western leaders, who have completely underestimated Russian military power. The Russians have been preparing for this war for nearly 10 years, they are fighting it in their frontyard, on their terms, in a "ground game" where they excel.

That's why I've used the Nebraska-Kansas metaphor, which should not be interpreted as some kind of gloat or support for the war, it is just a realistic observation of the actual facts on the ground - don't shoot the messenger.



Eventually that reality is going to catch up with the prevailing narrative, fluff pieces like the British intel report that Bearister has just posted are going to be exposed as blatant gaslighting. Russia has been using over 10x the amount of shear firepower in what basically is an artillery duel, and the losses are going to be commensurate with that imbalance in this war of attrition.

Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Has Cal88 ever explained why he roots so hard for Putin and Russia?

---

I am rooting for the best outcome for Ukraine primarily, and moreover, for the rest of the world, in view of the economic repercussions on the developing world and inflationary pressures, not to mention the real possibility of a nuclear escalation.

FYI, I actually have skin in this game, having extended family in Ukraine, primarily in Dnipro and Odessa. Thankfully my stepnephew, who is of prime military age, and most of my stepsister's family got out to Poland and Slovakia back in March. It took her 6 days to make that journey, including 3 days at the border, where she and her 89 yo mother slept in her car.

At the risk of repeating myself, all of this could have been avoided simply by Zelensky's govt abiding by the Minsk agreement. Ukraine would have still remained the biggest country in Europe, war would have been averted, the loss of 100,000 lives and the destruction of the country.

Our disagreement is primarily based on a wide difference in understanding the basic aspects of the domestic conflict in Ukraine, as well as the geopolitical dynamics undergirding that situation, which have been well covered by Mearsheimer et al. There has been a civil war that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 mostly civilian deaths in the Donbass.

A lot of this situation stems from the current leadership vacuum following Merkel's retirement, Macron is not able to fill her shoes, Boris is a warmonger, and Scholz did try to put together a last minute proposal with the 3 terms (NATO neutrality, Donbass autonomy, recognition of Crimea as Russian), but he lacked the authority to impose his proposal, which in retrospect is going to look like a win-win for all parties.

We've sunk in an unstopable war dynamic now that is not going to abate until Russia takes over all of old Novorossiya, because the military confrontation is largely one-sided. We, the collective West, have pushed Ukraine to fight a war it cannot win, "leading it on the primrose trail" in a war that is going to "wreck Ukraine" to use Mearcheimer's 2015 prophetic exact statements.

There is a cynical element within US and UK policymaker circles that is very content with that situation and the use of Ukrainian fodder in an attempt to bleed Russia. There is also a lot of hubris in western leaders, who have completely underestimated Russian military power. The Russians have been preparing for this war for nearly 10 years, they are fighting it in their frontyard, on their terms, in a "ground game" where they excel.

That's why I've used the Nebraska-Kansas metaphor, which should not be interpreted as some kind of gloat or support for the war, it is just a realistic observation of the actual facts on the ground - don't shoot the messenger.



Eventually that reality is going to catch up with the prevailing narrative, fluff pieces like the British intel report that Bearister has just posted are going to be exposed as blatant gaslighting. Russia has been using over 10x the amount of shear firepower in what basically is an artillery duel, and the losses are going to be commensurate with that imbalance in this war of attrition.

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This doesn't explain why you've been parroting Putin's propaganda for years. I don't even know when dajo9 started calling you out on it but you've very consistently supported pro-Putin positions for all to see for years.

I'm sorry to hear that you have family in Ukraine that will be negatively impacted by Putin's naked aggression but surprised you don't realize that Putin doesn't have plans to help Ukraine. That's never been what this is about for him and never will be.

Even in this message which I would think was intended to rebut my claim that you support Putin, you continue to apologize for and promote Putin's narrative and criticize every other actor. Despite being dead wrong about Russia's military might - as I recall you predicted Russia would steamroll Ukraine in days or weeks - you continue to pretend that Russia is some well-oiled military machine. The truth is far from that, they certainly have a lot of artillery but they have trouble supplying their troops, they are extremely poorly trained, if trained at all, they still suffer from poorly maintained and designed equipment - see their jack in the box tank turrets (known issue for 3+ decades) as well as crumbling tires on other vehicles - and yet you continue to present them exactly as Putin would like you to. The truth is that if Putin hadn't chosen to invade Ukraine, your family wouldn't have to worry about being shelled by Russia, or worse. This war didn't have to happen and there was exactly one person who made the decision to start it. No one forced his hand and he wasn't compelled to attack Ukraine. He did it of his own volition and you have refused to even pay lip service to his wrongdoing.

So I will give you an opportunity to tell me (and others here) that we are wrong. Tell us what you think of Putin's naked aggression against Ukraine. Tell us what you think of the numerous reported and documented war crimes committed by Russia under Putin and the continued attacks on civilians. Tell us how much responsibility you think Putin bears for this mess and how much you think everyone else does. I will stop putting words in your mouth and you can set the record straight.

Here's more of that amazing artillery that Cal88 brags about. Russia misses on 3 of 4 bombs. North Korea would do better lol. Can't wait for Cal88's 2,000 word elegy on the superiority of Russia.

The Russian Air Force is now bombing Snake Island to destroy the tens of millions of dollars in equipment they were forced to leave behind when they evacuated.🙃pic.twitter.com/PGzNSBXtEW

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) July 1, 2022

Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Has Cal88 ever explained why he roots so hard for Putin and Russia?

---

I am rooting for the best outcome for Ukraine primarily, and moreover, for the rest of the world, in view of the economic repercussions on the developing world and inflationary pressures, not to mention the real possibility of a nuclear escalation.

FYI, I actually have skin in this game, having extended family in Ukraine, primarily in Dnipro and Odessa. Thankfully my stepnephew, who is of prime military age, and most of my stepsister's family got out to Poland and Slovakia back in March. It took her 6 days to make that journey, including 3 days at the border, where she and her 89 yo mother slept in her car.

At the risk of repeating myself, all of this could have been avoided simply by Zelensky's govt abiding by the Minsk agreement. Ukraine would have still remained the biggest country in Europe, war would have been averted, the loss of 100,000 lives and the destruction of the country.

Our disagreement is primarily based on a wide difference in understanding the basic aspects of the domestic conflict in Ukraine, as well as the geopolitical dynamics undergirding that situation, which have been well covered by Mearsheimer et al. There has been a civil war that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 mostly civilian deaths in the Donbass.

A lot of this situation stems from the current leadership vacuum following Merkel's retirement, Macron is not able to fill her shoes, Boris is a warmonger, and Scholz did try to put together a last minute proposal with the 3 terms (NATO neutrality, Donbass autonomy, recognition of Crimea as Russian), but he lacked the authority to impose his proposal, which in retrospect is going to look like a win-win for all parties.

We've sunk in an unstopable war dynamic now that is not going to abate until Russia takes over all of old Novorossiya, because the military confrontation is largely one-sided. We, the collective West, have pushed Ukraine to fight a war it cannot win, "leading it on the primrose trail" in a war that is going to "wreck Ukraine" to use Mearcheimer's 2015 prophetic exact statements.

There is a cynical element within US and UK policymaker circles that is very content with that situation and the use of Ukrainian fodder in an attempt to bleed Russia. There is also a lot of hubris in western leaders, who have completely underestimated Russian military power. The Russians have been preparing for this war for nearly 10 years, they are fighting it in their frontyard, on their terms, in a "ground game" where they excel.

That's why I've used the Nebraska-Kansas metaphor, which should not be interpreted as some kind of gloat or support for the war, it is just a realistic observation of the actual facts on the ground - don't shoot the messenger.



Eventually that reality is going to catch up with the prevailing narrative, fluff pieces like the British intel report that Bearister has just posted are going to be exposed as blatant gaslighting. Russia has been using over 10x the amount of shear firepower in what basically is an artillery duel, and the losses are going to be commensurate with that imbalance in this war of attrition.

---

This doesn't explain why you've been parroting Putin's propaganda for years. I don't even know when dajo9 started calling you out on it but you've very consistently supported pro-Putin positions for all to see for years.

I'm sorry to hear that you have family in Ukraine that will be negatively impacted by Putin's naked aggression but surprised you don't realize that Putin doesn't have plans to help Ukraine. That's never been what this is about for him and never will be.

Even in this message which I would think was intended to rebut my claim that you support Putin, you continue to apologize for and promote Putin's narrative and criticize every other actor. Despite being dead wrong about Russia's military might - as I recall you predicted Russia would steamroll Ukraine in days or weeks - you continue to pretend that Russia is some well-oiled military machine. The truth is far from that, they certainly have a lot of artillery but they have trouble supplying their troops, they are extremely poorly trained, if trained at all, they still suffer from poorly maintained and designed equipment - see their jack in the box tank turrets (known issue for 3+ decades) as well as crumbling tires on other vehicles - and yet you continue to present them exactly as Putin would like you to. The truth is that if Putin hadn't chosen to invade Ukraine, your family wouldn't have to worry about being shelled by Russia, or worse. This war didn't have to happen and there was exactly one person who made the decision to start it. No one forced his hand and he wasn't compelled to attack Ukraine. He did it of his own volition and you have refused to even pay lip service to his wrongdoing.

So I will give you an opportunity to tell me (and others here) that we are wrong. Tell us what you think of Putin's naked aggression against Ukraine. Tell us what you think of the numerous reported and documented war crimes committed by Russia under Putin and the continued attacks on civilians. Tell us how much responsibility you think Putin bears for this mess and how much you think everyone else does. I will stop putting words in your mouth and you can set the record straight.

---

There is a pretty wide gulf in how the situation in Ukraine has been presented in the media and how it actually is. That gap is reflected in this discussion. I can't really change your opinion or that of the majority of posters here.

The media in other parts of the world, including in the Francosphere, tends to be less one-sided (especially independent media), that's where I get most of my information on the Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical issues.

Here are some of our main disagreements on the Ukraine war:

-Ukraine is run by a radical government whose philosophy is based on the white nationalist ideology that draws upon its recent history, with figures like Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych, who led the largest non-German SS army during WW2, being widely honored and elevated as founding fathers of the Ukrainian nation. Their ideology is that of a network of Ukrainian paramilitary units that hold a lot of the political power in the country and act as enforcers, working with oligarchs like Kolomoisky and Akhmetov, dons of Dnipro and Mariupol. There are countless memorials, city squares and streets, postage stamps and landmarks that were made or renamed after these bona fide nazi war criminals across central Ukraine, some as recent as yesterday:




Partial list of official monuments to Bandera across Ukraine

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-cult-of-stepan-bandera/

This is really unprecedented in the modern postwar history of Europe. Never has a European government glorified actual nazis and held them up as national heroes. Frankly it rubs me the wrong way.

Conversely, monuments dedicated to the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany have been scrapped, and WW2 memorials commemorating it have been banned. This is an incredibly sore spot, not just for Russians but for a large segment of eastern and southern Ukrainians who identify with the Soviets in WW2, in regions where most people have lost parents and grandparents fighting Nazi Germany, part of the ~25 million USSR citizens who died in WW2, and of the Soviet army that killed over 80% of the Nazi armies. To put the Soviet war effort in perspective, for every single American soldier killed fighting the Germans, 80 Soviet soldiers died doing the same.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/05/08/dont-forget-how-the-soviet-union-saved-the-world-from-hitler/


-I don't believe the prevailing war crime narrative on Bucha. Those murders of civilians are most likely the work of Ukrainian militias doing exactions on Russian "collaborators", locals who have traded or somewhat sympathized with Russian soldiers.

As well the Mariupol theater bombing was most likely done by Azov militiamen who were using that site as their base, and holding civilians in the theater basement as hostages and human shields. There is a lot of evidence of Ukrainian armed forces using schools, hospitals, apartment blocks and shopping centers as military outposts.

-There is widespread support for Russian intervention within the Donbass. The Luhansk and Donetsk militias are a local rebellions against the post-Maidan Kiev government that forcibly imposed an alien language and culture onto this region. Their soldiers are locals, entire divisions from the regular Ukrainian army have defected and formed the LNR and DNR armies.

Imagine if Holland had absorbed Belgium, and forced Wallonia (the French-speaking half of Belgium) to speak Dutch, putting restrictions on French-language TVs, newspapers and the use of French in schools, universities, government and businesses. Do you think the Wallons would have sit still? They would have rebelled and taken arms. And if that rebellion were crushed by the Dutch government, France would militarily intervene, roll back the Dutch army, and likely absorb Wallonia. That is pretty much the situation in the Donbass.

There has been a civil war that has been raging in the Donbass between local rebels and the central Ukrainian government since 2014, which has resulted in the death of 14,000 mostly russophone civilians.

The Minsk Agreements were a peaceful effort to end that conflict, it conferred autonomy to the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Early in the conflict as well, the war could have been averted had the Ukrainian government accepted to recognize Crimea as Russian (which is the reflection of the overwhelming majority of Crimeans), stayed out of NATO, and accorded to the two rebel provinces some autonomy, as advocated by the Minsk Agreements, but the war agenda pushed by Ukrainian nationalists and neocons in DC won over, with promises of military support and wonderweapons to roll back Russia and even retake Crimea by force.


I'm pretty sure we will disagree on nearly of these points, and that gulf is going to be too wide to breach, but the main thing that we can both agree on here is that this war needs to be stopped. The problem is, Ukraine has no way of winning this conflict, contrary to what's being portrayed in the media. This is a one-sided bloodbath, with over 50,000 Ukrainian troops KIA/WIA to date, and Ukrainian soldiers (mostly conscripts at this point) dying at a rate of over 5 to 1 in a war of attrition set by Russian terms. A responsible Ukrainian govt would take the L and hold on to its current lines, instead of losing the rest of its coastline including Odessa, and the northeast including the 2nd largest city of Kharkiv, not to mention another 50,000-100,000 Ukrainian conscripts sacrificed in a vain attempt to defeat Russia on the battlefield. And beyond that in the big picture, the millions that are going to starve as a result of this war, from Sri Lanka to Ethiopia and across the developing world.

No amount of military support from the West is going to change this war's outcome, short of an all-out war between NATO and Russia, which is essentially WW3, millions killed, hundreds of millions starving (and that's just in a conventional war). And even then, I believe Russia would win, their entire military doctrine is geared towards winning such a conflict on its borders, while NATO's strategy is geared towards stopping a Soviet/Russian invasion from rolling through Western Europe.

Russia has more artillery than the entire NATO combined, and they have the best and most extensive anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) network. It is for them an existential fight. This is the aspect that people like Kissinger, Mearsheimer or Chomsky understand, it is not about big villain Putin, it is about deep-seated Russian fears of being invaded by opponents rolling through their western plains, from Napoleon to Hitler and the Poles 4 centuries ago and the Mongols before them. These people are smart, pragmatic observers who understand European history, they are not "Putin bots".

Furthermore, modern American political doctrine, as reflected in the writings of Zbignew Brzezinski (notably The Grand Chessboard, published in 98), calls for the dismantling of Russia into 4 or 5 pieces, it is essentially a continuation of the Great Game doctrine established by the likes of Halford Mackinder over a century ago. The US has since then supplanted the UK as the great sea-faring hegemon, and the doctrine hasn't changed since. Ukraine is being used as the tip of the spear in that strategy.

One aspect that Mearsheimer pointed out in his most recent lecture last week is that there is no daylight within Russia on military intervention in Ukraine, this was actually reported by a high-level American diplomat (William Burns IIRC) who stated that even liberal elements in Russia are on board, while nationalists including Communists have attacked Putin as too meek for not actively intervening in the Donbas the last 8 years:


This is a great follow-up to Mearsheimer's 2015 presentation, if you don't have the patience to watch the entire 1-hour lecture, you have to at least listen to the 5-minute segment starting at the 29th minute.

The Ukrainian government is run by people like Oleksy Arestovich who are openly hostile to Russia and want a decades-long war to the last Ukrainian. They view Russia as an existential threat to Ukraine that needs to be fought, acting as NATO's tip of the spear. Their national Ukrainian identity defines itself in opposition to Russian identity, a position which alienates a large minority within current Ukrainian borders.

Their war effort has been driven by PR and internal politics, the stands in Mariupol and the current one in the Donbass, where they doubled down instead of tactically withdrawing to more defensible positions, a move which cost the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers thrown into the Donbass cauldron with limited means of defending themselves, and is reminiscent of Hitler's stubborn attempt to hold on to Stalingrad at all costs in order to stave off a political defeat. There has been a lot of tension between Ukrainian military brass and the Zelensky government related to this.



I'm pretty sure that this long post is going to generate a lot of hostility, but will ask of responders to focus on the facts and statements and provide a somewhat reasonable counter-arguments that aren't purely based on emotional grounds. That's the least to be expected from the message board of one of the greatest universities in the world.

I went through the trouble of providing certain facts and analyses that aren't presented in the media (if not completely ignored) and might be outside the Overton window of mainstream public opinion, because I believe that some posters at least could benefit from these insights.

Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Has Cal88 ever explained why he roots so hard for Putin and Russia?

---

I am rooting for the best outcome for Ukraine primarily, and moreover, for the rest of the world, in view of the economic repercussions on the developing world and inflationary pressures, not to mention the real possibility of a nuclear escalation.

FYI, I actually have skin in this game, having extended family in Ukraine, primarily in Dnipro and Odessa. Thankfully my stepnephew, who is of prime military age, and most of my stepsister's family got out to Poland and Slovakia back in March. It took her 6 days to make that journey, including 3 days at the border, where she and her 89 yo mother slept in her car.

At the risk of repeating myself, all of this could have been avoided simply by Zelensky's govt abiding by the Minsk agreement. Ukraine would have still remained the biggest country in Europe, war would have been averted, the loss of 100,000 lives and the destruction of the country.

Our disagreement is primarily based on a wide difference in understanding the basic aspects of the domestic conflict in Ukraine, as well as the geopolitical dynamics undergirding that situation, which have been well covered by Mearsheimer et al. There has been a civil war that has been raging since 2014, with 14,000 mostly civilian deaths in the Donbass.

A lot of this situation stems from the current leadership vacuum following Merkel's retirement, Macron is not able to fill her shoes, Boris is a warmonger, and Scholz did try to put together a last minute proposal with the 3 terms (NATO neutrality, Donbass autonomy, recognition of Crimea as Russian), but he lacked the authority to impose his proposal, which in retrospect is going to look like a win-win for all parties.

We've sunk in an unstopable war dynamic now that is not going to abate until Russia takes over all of old Novorossiya, because the military confrontation is largely one-sided. We, the collective West, have pushed Ukraine to fight a war it cannot win, "leading it on the primrose trail" in a war that is going to "wreck Ukraine" to use Mearcheimer's 2015 prophetic exact statements.

There is a cynical element within US and UK policymaker circles that is very content with that situation and the use of Ukrainian fodder in an attempt to bleed Russia. There is also a lot of hubris in western leaders, who have completely underestimated Russian military power. The Russians have been preparing for this war for nearly 10 years, they are fighting it in their frontyard, on their terms, in a "ground game" where they excel.

That's why I've used the Nebraska-Kansas metaphor, which should not be interpreted as some kind of gloat or support for the war, it is just a realistic observation of the actual facts on the ground - don't shoot the messenger.



Eventually that reality is going to catch up with the prevailing narrative, fluff pieces like the British intel report that Bearister has just posted are going to be exposed as blatant gaslighting. Russia has been using over 10x the amount of shear firepower in what basically is an artillery duel, and the losses are going to be commensurate with that imbalance in this war of attrition.

---

This doesn't explain why you've been parroting Putin's propaganda for years. I don't even know when dajo9 started calling you out on it but you've very consistently supported pro-Putin positions for all to see for years.

I'm sorry to hear that you have family in Ukraine that will be negatively impacted by Putin's naked aggression but surprised you don't realize that Putin doesn't have plans to help Ukraine. That's never been what this is about for him and never will be.

Even in this message which I would think was intended to rebut my claim that you support Putin, you continue to apologize for and promote Putin's narrative and criticize every other actor. Despite being dead wrong about Russia's military might - as I recall you predicted Russia would steamroll Ukraine in days or weeks - you continue to pretend that Russia is some well-oiled military machine. The truth is far from that, they certainly have a lot of artillery but they have trouble supplying their troops, they are extremely poorly trained, if trained at all, they still suffer from poorly maintained and designed equipment - see their jack in the box tank turrets (known issue for 3+ decades) as well as crumbling tires on other vehicles - and yet you continue to present them exactly as Putin would like you to. The truth is that if Putin hadn't chosen to invade Ukraine, your family wouldn't have to worry about being shelled by Russia, or worse. This war didn't have to happen and there was exactly one person who made the decision to start it. No one forced his hand and he wasn't compelled to attack Ukraine. He did it of his own volition and you have refused to even pay lip service to his wrongdoing.

So I will give you an opportunity to tell me (and others here) that we are wrong. Tell us what you think of Putin's naked aggression against Ukraine. Tell us what you think of the numerous reported and documented war crimes committed by Russia under Putin and the continued attacks on civilians. Tell us how much responsibility you think Putin bears for this mess and how much you think everyone else does. I will stop putting words in your mouth and you can set the record straight.

---

There is a pretty wide gulf in how the situation in Ukraine has been presented in the media and how it actually is. That gap is reflected in this discussion. I can't really change your opinion or that of the majority of posters here.

The media in other parts of the world, including in the Francosphere, tends to be less one-sided (especially independent media), that's where I get most of my information on the Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical issues.

Here are some of our main disagreements on the Ukraine war:

-Ukraine is run by a radical government whose philosophy is based on the white nationalist ideology that draws upon its recent history, with figures like Stepan Bandera and Roman Shukhevych, who led the largest non-German SS army during WW2, being widely honored and elevated as founding fathers of the Ukrainian nation. Their ideology is that of a network of Ukrainian paramilitary units that hold a lot of the political power in the country and act as enforcers, working with oligarchs like Kolomoisky and Akhmetov, dons of Dnipro and Mariupol. There are countless memorials, city squares and streets, postage stamps and landmarks that were made or renamed after these bona fide nazi war criminals across central Ukraine, some as recent as yesterday:




Partial list of official monuments to Bandera across Ukraine

https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/the-cult-of-stepan-bandera/

This is really unprecedented in the modern postwar history of Europe. Never has a European government glorified actual nazis and held them up as national heroes. Frankly it rubs me the wrong way.

Conversely, monuments dedicated to the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany have been scrapped, and WW2 memorials commemorating it have been banned. This is an incredibly sore spot, not just for Russians but for a large segment of eastern and southern Ukrainians who identify with the Soviets in WW2, in regions where most people have lost parents and grandparents fighting Nazi Germany, part of the ~25 million USSR citizens who died in WW2, and of the Soviet army that killed over 80% of the Nazi armies. To put the Soviet war effort in perspective, for every single American soldier killed fighting the Germans, 80 Soviet soldiers died doing the same.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/05/08/dont-forget-how-the-soviet-union-saved-the-world-from-hitler/


-I don't believe the Russian war crime narrative on Bucha. Those murders of civilians are most likely the work of Ukrainian militias doing exactions on Russian "collaborators", locals who have traded or somewhat sympathized with Russian soldiers.

As well the Mariupol theater bombing was most likely done by Azov militiamen who were using that site as their base, and holding civilians in the theater basement as hostages and human shields. There is a lot of evidence of Ukrainian armed forces using schools, hospitals, apartment blocks and shopping centers as military outposts.

-There is widespread support for Russian intervention within the Donbass. The Luhansk and Donetsk militias are a local rebellions against the post-Maidan Kiev government that forcibly imposed an alien language and culture onto this region. Their soldiers are locals, entire divisions from the regular Ukrainian army have defected and formed the LNR and DNR armies.

Imagine if Holland had absorbed Belgium, and forced Wallonia (the French-speaking half of Belgium) to speak Dutch, putting restrictions on French-language TVs, newspapers and the use of French in schools, universities, government and businesses. Do you think the Wallons would have sit still? They would have rebelled and taken arms. And if that rebellion were crushed by the Dutch government, France would militarily intervene, roll back the Dutch army, and likely absorb Wallonia. That is pretty much the situation in the Donbass.

There has been a civil war that has been raging in the Donbass between local rebels and the central Ukrainian government since 2014, which has resulted in the death of 14,000 mostly russophone civilians.

The Minsk Agreements were a peaceful effort to end that conflict, it conferred autonomy to the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces. Early in the conflict as well, the war could have been averted had the Ukrainian government accepted to recognize Crimea as Russian (which is the reflection of the overwhelming majority of Crimeans), stayed out of NATO, and accorded to the two rebel provinces some autonomy, as advocated by the Minsk Agreements, but the war agenda pushed by Ukrainian nationalists and neocons in DC won over, with promises of military support and wonderweapons to roll back Russia and even retake Crimea by force.


I'm pretty sure we will disagree on nearly of these points, and that gulf is going to be too wide to breach, but the main thing that we can both agree on here is that this war needs to be stopped. The problem is, Ukraine has no way of winning this conflict, contrary to what's being portrayed in the media. This is a one-sided bloodbath, with over 50,000 Ukrainian troops KIA/WIA. A responsible Ukrainian govt would take the L and hold on to its current lines, instead of losing the rest of its coastline including Odessa, and the northeast including the 2nd largest city of Kharkiv, not to mention another 50,000-100,000 Ukrainian conscripts in a vain attempt to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Not to mention the millions that are going to starve as a result of this war, from Sri Lanka to Ethiopia and across the developing world.

No amount of military support from the West is going to change this war's outcome, short of an all-out war between NATO and Russia, which is essentially WW3, millions killed, hundreds of millions starving (and that's just in a conventional war). And even then, I believe Russia would win, their entire military philosophy is geared towards winning such a conflict on its borders, while NATO's strategy is geared towards stopping a Soviet/Russian invasion of Western Europe.

Russia has more artillery than the entire NATO combined, and they have the best and most extensive anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) network. It is for them an existential fight. This is the aspect that people like Kissinger, Mearsheimer or Chomsky understand, it is not about big villain Putin, it is about deep-seated Russian fears of being invaded by opponents rolling through their western plains, from Napoleon to Hitler and the Poles 4 centuries ago and the Mongols before them. These people are smart, pragmatic observers who understand European history, they are not "Putin bots".

One aspect that Mearsheimer pointed out in his most recent lecture last week is that there is no daylight within Russia on military intervention in Ukraine, this was actually reported by a high-level American diplomat (William Burns IIRC) who stated that even liberal elements in Russia are on board, while nationalists including Communists have attacked Putin as too meek for not actively intervening in the Donbas the last 8 years:


This is a great follow-up to Mearsheimer's 2015 presentation, if you don't have the patience to watch the entire 1-hour lecture, you have to at least listen to the 5-minute segment bookmarked above.

The Ukrainian government is run by people like Oleksy Arestovich who are openly hostile to Russia and want a decades-long war to the last Ukrainian. They view Russia as an existential threat to Ukraine that needs to be fought, acting as NATO's tip of the spear. Their national Ukrainian identity defines itself in opposition to Russian identity, a position which alienates a large minority within current Ukrainian borders.

Their war effort has been driven by PR and internal politics, the stands in Mariupol and the current one in the Donbass, where they doubled down instead of tactically withdrawing to more defensible positions, a move which cost the lives of thousands of dead Ukrainian soldiers burned to death in the Donbass cauldron, and is reminiscent of Hitler's stubborn attempt to hold on to Stalingrad at all costs in order to stave off a political defeat. There has been a lot of tension between Ukrainian military brass and the Zelensky government related to this.



I'm pretty sure that this long post is going to generate a lot of hostility, but will ask of responders to focus on the facts and statements and provide a somewhat reasonable counter-arguments that aren't purely based on emotional grounds. That's the least to be expected from the message board of one of the greatest universities in the world. I went through the trouble of providing certain facts and analyses that aren't presented in the media (if not completely ignored) and might be outside the Overton window of mainstream public opinion, because I believe that some posters at least could benefit from these insights.

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Vladimir, I have a very hard time believing that Ukraine is spending much time or effort on monuments and postage stamps right now.

I can't believe these guys are still running with the narrative of "Ukraine is a country run by Nazis who all back a Jewish president."

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Cal88 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal8 said:

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Vladimir, I have a very hard time believing that Ukraine is spending much time or effort on monuments and postage stamps right now.

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From Wikipedia -

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera#Commemoration

There are Stepan Bandera museums in Dubliany, Volia-Zaderevatska, Staryi Uhryniv, and Yahilnytsia. There is a Stepan Bandera Museum of Liberation Struggle in London, part of the OUN Archive,[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera#cite_note-136][136][/url] and The Bandera's Family Museum ( ) in Stryi.

There are also Stepan Bandera streets in:
Lviv (formerly vulytsia Myru, "Peace street"),
Lutsk (formerly Suvorovska street),
Rivne (formerly Moskovska street),
Kolomyia,
Ivano-Frankivsk,
Chervonohrad (formerly Nad Buhom street),
Berezhany (formerly Cherniakhovskoho street),
Drohobych (formerly Sliusarska street),
Stryi,
Kalush,
Kovel,
Volodymyr-Volynskyi,
Horodenka,
Dubrovytsia,
Kolomyia,
Dolyna,
Iziaslav,
Skole,
Shepetivka,
Brovary, and
Boryspil, and
a Stepan Bandera Avenue in Ternopil (part of the former Lenin Avenue).

On 16 January 2017, the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance stated that 34 streets were named after Stepan Bandera, [including main streets in the biggest cities of central Ukraine, like Kiev and Lviv].

Due to "association with the communist totalitarian regime", the Kyiv City Council on 7 July 2016 voted 87 to 10 in favor of supporting renaming Moscow Avenue to Stepan Bandera Avenue.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, monuments dedicated to Stepan Bandera have been constructed in a number of western Ukrainian cities and villages, including a statue in Lviv. Bandera was also named an honorary citizen of a number of western Ukrainian cities.

In late 2018, the Lviv Oblast Council decided to declare the year of 2019 to be the year of Stepan Bandera, sparking protests by Israel.

Two feature films have been made about Bandera, among them are Assassination: An October Murder in Munich (1995) and The Undefeated (2000), both directed by Oles Yanchuk, along with a number of documentary films. In 2021, the Ukrainian Institute of National Memory under the authority of the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture, included Bandera, among other Ukrainian nationalist figures, in Virtual Necropolis, a project intended to commemorate historical figures important for Ukraine.

Who was Stepan Bandera?

https://historynewsnetwork.org/article/122778

by Norman J.W. Goda Braman Professor of Holocaust Studies at the University of Florida. His most recent book is Tales from Spandau: Nazi Criminals and the Cold War (2007), and is co-author of US Intelligence and the Nazis (2005).

"As an uncompromising leader of the militant, terrorist branch of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), Bandera became a Nazi collaborator who lived with his deputies under German protection after World War II began. In preparation for the attack on the USSR, the Nazis recruited Bandera's followers to act as Ukrainian-speaking policemen and to serve in two Ukrainian volunteer army battalions. By working with the Nazis, Bandera hoped to free Ukraine from Soviet rule and establish his own government there. An independent Ukraine, Bandera promised, would remain friendly to Germany.

Historian Karel Berkhoff, among others, has shown that Bandera, his deputies, and the Nazis shared a key obsession, namely the notion that the Jews in Ukraine were behind Communism and Stalinist imperialism and must be destroyed. "The Jews of the Soviet Union," read a Banderist statement, "are the most loyal supporters of the Bolshevik Regime and the vanguard of Muscovite imperialism in the Ukraine." When the Germans invaded the USSR in June 1941 and captured the East Galician capital of Lvov, Bandera's lieutenants issued a declaration of independence in his name. They further promised to work closely with Hitler, then helped to launch a pogrom that killed four thousand Lvov Jews in a few days, using weapons ranging from guns to metal poles. "We will lay your heads at Hitler's feet," a Banderist pamphlet proclaimed to Ukrainian Jews.

The Germans intended to keep Ukraine for themselves. They arrested Bandera for his intransigence on the issue of independence, but released him in 1944 when it appeared that his popularity with Ukrainians might help stem the Soviet advance. But whatever their disappointment with the Germans, the Banderists never disagreed with their Jewish policy in Ukraine, which eventually killed over 1.5 million Ukrainian Jews.

This is a truth that many in Ukraine, particularly in its western parts, deny. In his book Erased (2007), Omer Bartov discusses the large bronze statue of Bandera that stands in a park in the east Galician town of Drohobych, most of whose 15,000 Jews were murdered. The park stands on the site of the town's former Jewish ghetto, but there is not so much as a plaque in the park to memorialize the Jewish dead. This and other examples like it make a condemnation of Yushchenko's step necessary."

Bandera in full regalia, circa 1944:



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If you want to understand the nature of the conflict in Ukraine, here is a very telling statistic from Bandera's wiki page, on regional attitudes towards Bandera:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera#Attitudes_in_Ukraine_towards_Bandera

Attitudes by region towards Bandera's faction of the OUN Region

Very positive/Mostly positive
Galicia (western Ukraine) : 63%
Southern Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Crimea): 2%

Mostly negative/Very negative:
Galicia (western Ukraine) : 11%
Southern Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Crimea): 78%

With this perspective, it is much easier to understand what went on in May 2014 in Odessa, when over 40 anti-Banderist protestors were burned to death by Ukrainian nationalists:

Cal88 is nothing if not predictable. 10/10 answer as to why he won't ever criticize Putin.

The real question here is how much liquor did Cal88 have to buy for friends and family after Biden beat Trump? Or did he welch on those bets?

^Biden is the American Yeltsin.

Cal88 said:

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Big C said:

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The situation over there is more complicated and nuanced than many Americans would like. We tend to want clear narratives with all the players easy to classify as good or bad.

Cal88 said we all agree that the war must be stopped. I'm not sure people here all agree on that. The bullets being fired over there are so much further away than the ones that were fired in Highland Park or Uvalde. And the billions we're spending to help them? Hell, we now know that billions no longer even register. Talk to me again when it's trillions.

Still, if I'm taking a side, it's an easy call: Ukraine. Unfortunately, it looks like Russia won the week... again.

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There is no point in hating Russia or building up Putin or Xi into comic book supervillains. These guys are capable, smart leaders who calculate every move they make years in advance and who rose to the top through patience and cunning. Their countries are the local bullies, each now carving out their own Monroe doctrines and doing what the US has been doing in the last two centuries, on a smaller scale, if only because these countries are (or have been) lesser powers, never rising to the role of global hegemon.

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Phenomenal work you're doing. I hope you are on Putin's payroll because if not, just wow. You think anyone is going to still believe that Putin is still some sort of strategic genius? He's a thug who people believed was smarter and more strategic than he actually is. You continue to pretend he invaded Ukraine for humanitarian reasons. I think it's more likely a combination of his pathos, paranoia and inchoate illness. More and more it appears he has some sort of physical illness and I think that is far more likely to be behind his rash decision making than any desire to help people. For crying out loud, are you really that naive or do you think we are? Putin the humanitarian saving Ukraine from Nazis.

Who would have thought that Cal88 after years of dajo9 calling him a russian asset would completely back Russia in this stupid war. I did nazi that coming.

Unit2Sucks said:

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Cal88 said:

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Big C said:

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The situation over there is more complicated and nuanced than many Americans would like. We tend to want clear narratives with all the players easy to classify as good or bad.

Cal88 said we all agree that the war must be stopped. I'm not sure people here all agree on that. The bullets being fired over there are so much further away than the ones that were fired in Highland Park or Uvalde. And the billions we're spending to help them? Hell, we now know that billions no longer even register. Talk to me again when it's trillions.

Still, if I'm taking a side, it's an easy call: Ukraine. Unfortunately, it looks like Russia won the week... again.

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There is no point in hating Russia or building up Putin or Xi into comic book supervillains. These guys are capable, smart leaders who calculate every move they make years in advance and who rose to the top through patience and cunning. Their countries are the local bullies, each now carving out their own Monroe doctrines and doing what the US has been doing in the last two centuries, on a smaller scale, if only because these countries are (or have been) lesser powers, never rising to the role of global hegemon.

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Phenomenal work you're doing. I hope you are on Putin's payroll because if not, just wow. You think anyone is going to still believe that Putin is still some sort of strategic genius? He's a thug who people believed was smarter and more strategic than he actually is. You continue to pretend he invaded Ukraine for humanitarian reasons. I think it's more likely a combination of his pathos, paranoia and inchoate illness. More and more it appears he has some sort of physical illness and I think that is far more likely to be behind his rash decision making than any desire to help people. For crying out loud, are you really that naive or do you think we are? Putin the humanitarian saving Ukraine from Nazis.

Who would have thought that Cal88 after years of dajo9 calling him a russian asset would completely back Russia in this stupid war. I did nazi that coming.

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I never called Cal88 a Russian asset. I just said he pushes Russian propaganda. I can't think of any reason why somebody would regularly come on this board to push Russian propaganda that isn't completely stupid so I never suggested a motive for why Cal88 does what he does. I just pointed out what he does - which is push Russian propaganda.

Cal88 said:

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^Biden is the American Yeltsin.

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What? Does that mean Putin replaces him?

The war is a careening disaster- Europe likely in a recession; US too. Meanwhile Russia oil revenue up as India and China increase buys at a discount while the US and Europe pay a premium "war tax." Meanwhile the clueless idiot Biden says gas prices will remain high until Ukraine wins- in other words, forever.

Big C said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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More evidence that Cal88 is right about Russia. If it's Opposite Day.

At almost every level the Russian military exhibits nearly suicidal levels of abject stupidity. https://t.co/hfefP2pA2i

— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) July 6, 2022

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Do you mean to imply that things have been going well for Ukraine the past month or so? Because that has not been at all what I'm seeing reported.

On the other hand, Russia, even with as big an army as it has, is feeling the pain, too. The longer this goes on, the harder it is to hide the reality from Russian mothers-of-young-men.

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As with many wars, it's not going well for anyone. It's likely to become a bogged-down quagmire for both armies.

Putin can end it any time he likes.