The ship is leaving the rats. France and UK will have less supportive governments; Germany's economy is tanking; the Euro is at a 20 year low. Now that the "stop them in Kherson or else they will be in Berlin or Chicago" narrative is dead, Ukraine will be sold down the river once again with no European appetite for providing more treasure while the continent plunges into recession. . Accordingly at some point there will be support for defense and negotiations but not counteroffensives. Even the dim wit Biden will see that this is no longer in the national interest or- more importantly- his interest.
The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread
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Last: 9 hrs ago by movielover
Whether we and the world is willing to help Ukraine is a separate topic. Cal88 from day one has defended Russia at each step and overstated their military might. We've learned that Putin is as evil as everyone always thought but not nearly as strategically savvy as people gave him credit for. We've also learned that the Russian military is far more of a paper tiger than anyone thought. People expected them to steamroll Ukraine because they believed all of the hype. Very few people still believe Putin's propaganda about Russian military strength with Cal88 being a prominent counter example on BI who has been repeatedly wrong about how quickly Russia would advance and obtain superiority in different areas. He's also refused to acknowledge their many war crimes and instead advances ridiculous agitprop about Nazis in Ukraine somehow being a justification for Putin's violation of international law.
Russia is a far bigger country who devoted far more resources than Ukraine to their military. The fact is that this has been an embarrassment for them and they've lost tens of thousands of troops to achieve not very much against a bunch of farmers stealing their tanks and needs using drones.
Only Cal88 fails to see all of this. He's like Baghdad Bob without an obvious motivation.
Russia is a far bigger country who devoted far more resources than Ukraine to their military. The fact is that this has been an embarrassment for them and they've lost tens of thousands of troops to achieve not very much against a bunch of farmers stealing their tanks and needs using drones.
Only Cal88 fails to see all of this. He's like Baghdad Bob without an obvious motivation.
Another narrative being pushed a lot is that the US or NATO or "the West" goaded and pushed Ukraine into foolishly continuing this war over pursuing a peace agreement.
I do not find this argument convincing. It seems to place a lot of unfounded faith in the US's ability to convince other governments and peoples to do what they want. We have seen one very obvious counter-example recently: Afghanistan. We spent two decades there trying to set up a new government favorable to us and it collapsed in about fifteen minutes after we left, because the people there weren't willing to fight for it. The people of Ukraine clearly are willing to fight for their country. Even if the US had argued against them defending themselves militarily, I think the evidence on the ground suggests they would have anyway and we still would have had a war.
Again, it's Russia and Putin's fault that there is a prolonged war here. The rest is obfuscation.
I do not find this argument convincing. It seems to place a lot of unfounded faith in the US's ability to convince other governments and peoples to do what they want. We have seen one very obvious counter-example recently: Afghanistan. We spent two decades there trying to set up a new government favorable to us and it collapsed in about fifteen minutes after we left, because the people there weren't willing to fight for it. The people of Ukraine clearly are willing to fight for their country. Even if the US had argued against them defending themselves militarily, I think the evidence on the ground suggests they would have anyway and we still would have had a war.
Again, it's Russia and Putin's fault that there is a prolonged war here. The rest is obfuscation.
Unit2Sucks said:
Whether we and the world is willing to help Ukraine is a separate topic. Cal88 from day one has defended Russia at each step and overstated their military might. We've learned that Putin is as evil as everyone always thought but not nearly as strategically savvy as people gave him credit for. We've also learned that the Russian military is far more of a paper tiger than anyone thought. People expected them to steamroll Ukraine because they believed all of the hype. Very few people still believe Putin's propaganda about Russian military strength with Cal88 being a prominent counter example on BI who has been repeatedly wrong about how quickly Russia would advance and obtain superiority in different areas. He's also refused to acknowledge their many war crimes and instead advances ridiculous agitprop about Nazis in Ukraine somehow being a justification for Putin's violation of international law.
Russia is a far bigger country who devoted far more resources than Ukraine to their military. The fact is that this has been an embarrassment for them and they've lost tens of thousands of troops to achieve not very much against a bunch of farmers stealing their tanks and needs using drones.
Only Cal88 fails to see all of this. He's like Baghdad Bob without an obvious motivation.
While I underestimated Ukraine's ability to defend itself, don't discount the 6 billion dollars the US has given Ukraine in military support, along with the money and weapons donated by Europe and the UK. It has gone a long way in slowing but not stopping Russia. It is much more than farmers stealing Russian weapons.
oski003 said:Unit2Sucks said:
Whether we and the world is willing to help Ukraine is a separate topic. Cal88 from day one has defended Russia at each step and overstated their military might. We've learned that Putin is as evil as everyone always thought but not nearly as strategically savvy as people gave him credit for. We've also learned that the Russian military is far more of a paper tiger than anyone thought. People expected them to steamroll Ukraine because they believed all of the hype. Very few people still believe Putin's propaganda about Russian military strength with Cal88 being a prominent counter example on BI who has been repeatedly wrong about how quickly Russia would advance and obtain superiority in different areas. He's also refused to acknowledge their many war crimes and instead advances ridiculous agitprop about Nazis in Ukraine somehow being a justification for Putin's violation of international law.
Russia is a far bigger country who devoted far more resources than Ukraine to their military. The fact is that this has been an embarrassment for them and they've lost tens of thousands of troops to achieve not very much against a bunch of farmers stealing their tanks and needs using drones.
Only Cal88 fails to see all of this. He's like Baghdad Bob without an obvious motivation.
While I underestimated Ukraine's ability to defend itself, don't discount the 6 billion dollars the US has given Ukraine in military support, along with the money and weapons donated by Europe and the UK. It has gone a long way in slowing but not stopping Russia. It is much more than farmers stealing Russian weapons.
Russia thought it would capture Kyiv in less than 72 hours. That's what people like Cal88 thought of their military. Russia proved it was nowhere close to as strong as it pretends to be long before any the new US aid made a difference. Russia couldn't keep treads on tanks, tires on trucks, fuel in vehicles or food in bellies. They still have exploding tanks and lost a ship to a country without a navy for crying out loud. People thought it was David vs Goliath but it's David vs Bob's Big Boy. Russia is a lot closer to NK with nukes than it is to China or the US in terms of military might. Only Cal88 can pretend otherwise and continue to suck at Putin's teat.
I know you are required to take the contrarian point of view in every topic, but even you can't pretend this makes Russia's military or Putin look good. This has been a disaster for them.
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
— The Right To Bear Memes (@grandoldmemes) July 12, 2022
US sending $400 million more in military aid to Ukraine
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/us-sending-400-million-military-aid-ukraine-86468650
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
More Russia winning.
HIMARS is back in acton: another Russian ammo dump just exploded incredibly dramatically.🔥🇺🇦pic.twitter.com/U0CNEh6KkB
— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) July 11, 2022
They were just celebrating the 11th of July.Unit2Sucks said:
More Russia winning.HIMARS is back in acton: another Russian ammo dump just exploded incredibly dramatically.🔥🇺🇦pic.twitter.com/U0CNEh6KkB
— Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) July 11, 2022
Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
I could possibly believe that Ukraine might be selling donated arms, but selling them to Russia? Does not compute.dimitrig said:Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
. Well, if bulgarianmilitary.com says so, it MUST be true.Eastern Oregon Bear said:I could possibly believe that Ukraine might be selling donated arms, but selling them to Russia? Does not compute.dimitrig said:Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
Eastern Oregon Bear said:I could possibly believe that Ukraine might be selling donated arms, but selling them to Russia? Does not compute.dimitrig said:
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
The bulk of the arsenal of the Donbas rebel army was made up of regular Ukrainian army military equipment, and most of their personnel as well were local Ukrainian army conscripts, so there is a common precedent for that type of transaction. Ukraine is the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. It has also been the biggest hub of arms trafficking in Europe the last decade.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-most-corrupt-nation-in-europe-ukraine
Quote:
Since 2000, the US has provided doubledigit millions of dollars in weapons and weapons training to Ukraine ...following Russia's invasion of Crimea, security assistance from the US to Ukraine increased to over $90 million in 2014, over $182 million in 2015, and then has remained above $200 million every year since. Yet, many of these weapons have seemingly disappeared into an abyss.
Quote:
According to the 2021 Global Organized Crime Index, Ukraine has one of the largest illegally trafficked arms markets in Europe, especially when it comes to small arms and ammunition.
On Ukrainian weapons ending up in the black market, here are some "safe" sources that should garner the seal of approval of the Bear Insider Central Political Committee:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/14/ukraine-weapons-trafficking/
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1620102/Ukraine-conflict-arms-criminal-interpol-Russia-politics-ont
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220517-experts-warn-arms-for-ukraine-could-end-up-in-wrong-hands
Quote:
'Bank robberies with Javelins'
One senior French military officer evoked a lurid possible outcome: "We'll be laughing on the other side of our faces once we're seeing bank robberies with Javelins," he said, referring to the US-made anti-tank missiles.
I said I could believe that arms sent to Ukraine could end being sold to others. Your articles suggest that will happen though I didn't see many examples of that actually having happened. I also said I didn't believe Ukraine arms were being sold to Russia. Your articles didn't even mention that as a possibility.Cal88 said:Eastern Oregon Bear said:I could possibly believe that Ukraine might be selling donated arms, but selling them to Russia? Does not compute.dimitrig said:
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
The bulk of the arsenal of the Donbas rebel army was made up of regular Ukrainian army military equipment, and most of their personnel as well were local Ukrainian army conscripts, so there is a common precedent for that type of transaction. Ukraine is the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. It has also been the biggest hub of arms trafficking in Europe the last decade.
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2015/feb/04/welcome-to-the-most-corrupt-nation-in-europe-ukraineQuote:
Since 2000, the US has provided doubledigit millions of dollars in weapons and weapons training to Ukraine ...following Russia's invasion of Crimea, security assistance from the US to Ukraine increased to over $90 million in 2014, over $182 million in 2015, and then has remained above $200 million every year since. Yet, many of these weapons have seemingly disappeared into an abyss.Quote:
According to the 2021 Global Organized Crime Index, Ukraine has one of the largest illegally trafficked arms markets in Europe, especially when it comes to small arms and ammunition.
On Ukrainian weapons ending up in the black market, here are some "safe" sources that should garner the seal of approval of the Bear Insider Central Political Committee:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/05/14/ukraine-weapons-trafficking/
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1620102/Ukraine-conflict-arms-criminal-interpol-Russia-politics-ont
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220517-experts-warn-arms-for-ukraine-could-end-up-in-wrong-handsQuote:
'Bank robberies with Javelins'
One senior French military officer evoked a lurid possible outcome: "We'll be laughing on the other side of our faces once we're seeing bank robberies with Javelins," he said, referring to the US-made anti-tank missiles.
The first article was about corruption in the Ukraine medical care system. I'm not sure how that is relevant to the topic of Ukraine arms sales to Russia. It is very sad for people needing medical care in Ukraine.
Exactly, these are all good reasons to criticize Putin for his war of naked aggression. Putin can end this tomorrow and I suspect if he dies anytime soon of his (alleged) health problems, we would see a quick end to the war. But for him, this was wouldn't be happening.dimitrig said:Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
At this point in time and as it now stands, I agree with you. There is no one to blame other than Putin and Russia.Unit2Sucks said:Exactly, these are all good reasons to criticize Putin for his war of naked aggression. Putin can end this tomorrow and I suspect if he dies anytime soon of his (alleged) health problems, we would see a quick end to the war. But for him, this was wouldn't be happening.dimitrig said:Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
However, while strongly supporting our intervention to assist Ukraine (I think we should have acted faster to provide defensive assistance and should not rule out providing offensive weapons unless we are using that as leverage for Russia not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine), I think we made some serious mistakes that got us here.
I believe there was a point when Russia wanted to join the broader global world order led by US. We over-leveraged our position, tried to make Russia feel small, and denigrated Russia's role when NATO attacked Yugoslavia. Coupled that with expansion of NATO (which had shown it would attack based on humanitarian reasons beyond defending NATO members) along Russia's borders, I think it hardened Putin to the point where he has truly become the villain. That's unfortunate. I think Russia would have been a good ally against China but we pushed them together.
I also think getting rid of Putin may not solve everything. I think there are far right faction in Russia that may be even more villainous than Putin.
But at the end of the day, not supporting Ukraine would prove far more costly than supporting them. As we see with our current inflation, etc., what happens to the world greatly impacts our lives here. Supply chain, food supply, fuel, etc. cannot be separated from national security.
I agree, the people who have risen to the top under Putin could just as easily be worse than him. There are no guarantees and as a planet we don't have a great history of warlords being replaced by second in commands who are nice guys.calbear93 said:At this point in time and as it now stands, I agree with you. There is no one to blame other than Putin and Russia.Unit2Sucks said:Exactly, these are all good reasons to criticize Putin for his war of naked aggression. Putin can end this tomorrow and I suspect if he dies anytime soon of his (alleged) health problems, we would see a quick end to the war. But for him, this was wouldn't be happening.dimitrig said:Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
You know who I blame for that? Putin. His petty squabble with Ukraine is destabilizing the world.
However, while strongly supporting our intervention to assist Ukraine (I think we should have acted faster to provide defensive assistance and should not rule out providing offensive weapons unless we are using that as leverage for Russia not to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine), I think we made some serious mistakes that got us here.
I believe there was a point when Russia wanted to join the broader global world order led by US. We over-leveraged our position, tried to make Russia feel small, and denigrated Russia's role when NATO attacked Yugoslavia. Coupled that with expansion of NATO (which had shown it would attack based on humanitarian reasons beyond defending NATO members) along Russia's borders, I think it hardened Putin to the point where he has truly become the villain. That's unfortunate. I think Russia would have been a good ally against China but we pushed them together.
I also think getting rid of Putin may not solve everything. I think there are far right faction in Russia that may be even more villainous than Putin.
But at the end of the day, not supporting Ukraine would prove far more costly than supporting them. As we see with our current inflation, etc., what happens to the world greatly impacts our lives here. Supply chain, food supply, fuel, etc. cannot be separated from national security.
Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
The NYT's claim that "Biden tried to isolate" MbL but failed is false.
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) July 14, 2022
From the start - way before Russia's invasion of Ukraine -- Biden refused to sanction MbL, then approved a massive arms deal to the Saudis, then announced his planned trip.
Biden has always hugged tyrants. pic.twitter.com/nyp67k2Kay
We also left a treasure trove of weaponry to the Taliban after our disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and now, Saudi Arabia gets a new arms deal under Biden.
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
The US probably should have engaged in some kind of a Marshall Plan with Russia after the fall of the Soviet empire (similar to Germany and Japan after WW2), but instead we kind of left them to twist in the wind and get picked over by rapacious businessmen. Our leaders seemed to think that capitalism and democracy would solve everything in Russia by themselves. That was definitely a mistake.
However, there are many many many steps from that to Russia invading neighbors who are no threat to them, and you can't pin all of those on the US or NATO. Mostly it's about Putin and his wild overreactions to everything.
However, there are many many many steps from that to Russia invading neighbors who are no threat to them, and you can't pin all of those on the US or NATO. Mostly it's about Putin and his wild overreactions to everything.
That should have been written as "disabled and nonfunctional weaponry".BearForce2 said:Cal88 said:BearForce2 said:Countries are calling for greater tracking of arms to Ukraine to stop weapons sales to Europe’s black market https://t.co/beUKFKxAkO
— Financial Times (@FinancialTimes) July 13, 2022
Zelensky's OLIGARCHS have been *reselling* the arms we've been supplying him on the black market. And Europol, the EU's FBI, has known about this since April!
Our government knew about this and we're still sending money over.
https://www.ft.com/content/bce78c78-b899-4dd2-b3a0-69d789b8aee8
It's not just the oligarchs, it's also the "little guys" at the frontlines, entrepreneurial Ukrainian army types. The oligarchs sell off big batches by the containerload to big clients on the black market ratline in the Balkans and Mideast, while the soldiers at the frontline negotiate sales to Russia by the unit, at an even steeper discount rate. The two French top-of-the-line Cesar 155 howtzers, which cost $7 million a piece, have allegedly been sold off for $120k a pop (98% off sale - I bet the Russians threw in a case of vodka to sweeten the deal):
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/05/ukraine-has-sold-two-french-donated-155mm-caesar-howitzers-to-russia/
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/07/11/ukraine-officially-admits-illegal-sale-of-west-donated-weapons/
A lot of the Ukrainian arsenal is going to end fuelling rebel wars and terrorist groups around the world. There is already evidence of Ukrainian Javelins ending up in Syria, Libya etc.
We also left a treasure trove of weaponry to the Taliban after our disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal and now, Saudi Arabia gets a new arms deal under Biden.
I don't think anyone disagrees with you on this current iteration of Putin and his actions with Ukraine and Georgia. However, there was a point I believe where he was open to making Russia a proud functioning member of a world order led by the US. I believe he has always been a calculating, proud, egotistical dictator, but one we could have brought to our side. However, we were more interested in the Middle East, flexing our muscle and punishing Russia for having being part of Soviet Union. When NATO attacked Yugoslavia, I think that also turned many Russians against US and made the country more nationalistic. Imagine Russia attacking Mexico for humanitarian reasons. It was a lost opportunity. Russia being made almost irrelevant probably opened the door to this iteration of Putin. Now that we are here, we have to make Russia pay a significant price.sycasey said:
The US probably should have engaged in some kind of a Marshall Plan with Russia after the fall of the Soviet empire (similar to Germany and Japan after WW2), but instead we kind of left them to twist in the wind and get picked over by rapacious businessmen. Our leaders seemed to think that capitalism and democracy would solve everything in Russia by themselves. That was definitely a mistake.
However, there are many many many steps from that to Russia invading neighbors who are no threat to them, and you can't pin all of those on the US or NATO. Mostly it's about Putin and his wild overreactions to everything.
Source?Eastern Oregon Bear said:
That should have been written as "disabled and nonfunctional weaponry".
The difference between a right wing conspiracy and the truth is about 20 months.
Cal88 believes Putin is a force for good who invaded Ukraine to rid them of nazis and to foster a better environment for Russian-speaking people living in Ukraine. He thinks Putin is a humanitarian and that people who believe the way that you do are supporting nazis.calbear93 said:I don't think anyone disagrees with you on this current iteration of Putin and his actions with Ukraine and Georgia. However, there was a point I believe where he was open to making Russia a proud functioning member of a world order led by the US. I believe he has always been a calculating, proud, egotistical dictator, but one we could have brought to our side. However, we were more interested in the Middle East, flexing our muscle and punishing Russia for having being part of Soviet Union. When NATO attacked Yugoslavia, I think that also turned many Russians against US and made the country more nationalistic. Imagine Russia attacking Mexico for humanitarian reasons. It was a lost opportunity. Russia being made almost irrelevant probably opened the door to this iteration of Putin. Now that we are here, we have to make Russia pay a significant price.sycasey said:
The US probably should have engaged in some kind of a Marshall Plan with Russia after the fall of the Soviet empire (similar to Germany and Japan after WW2), but instead we kind of left them to twist in the wind and get picked over by rapacious businessmen. Our leaders seemed to think that capitalism and democracy would solve everything in Russia by themselves. That was definitely a mistake.
However, there are many many many steps from that to Russia invading neighbors who are no threat to them, and you can't pin all of those on the US or NATO. Mostly it's about Putin and his wild overreactions to everything.
Whether you are right about different directions the world could have gone with Putin and Russia to avoid their descent into ****hole petro-state run by a warlord and kleptocracy is interesting but I suspect that the forces for malevolence were too strong to contain. There is no world we could have created that would have permitted Putin to amass a $200B fortune on the backs of his peasant-class and that's simply too enticing for a guy like him.
Likely far better than any of yours.
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
Hard for me to believe that Cal88 actually believes that, but if he does, that is a tragedy. Like all European countries, including France, Poland and Germany, I am sure that there are some screwed up people in Ukraine who support Nazis. But it is not the Ukraine government and definitely not its Jewish president.Unit2Sucks said:Cal88 believes Putin is a force for good who invaded Ukraine to rid them of nazis and to foster a better environment for Russian-speaking people living in Ukraine. He thinks Putin is a humanitarian and that people who believe the way that you do are supporting nazis.calbear93 said:I don't think anyone disagrees with you on this current iteration of Putin and his actions with Ukraine and Georgia. However, there was a point I believe where he was open to making Russia a proud functioning member of a world order led by the US. I believe he has always been a calculating, proud, egotistical dictator, but one we could have brought to our side. However, we were more interested in the Middle East, flexing our muscle and punishing Russia for having being part of Soviet Union. When NATO attacked Yugoslavia, I think that also turned many Russians against US and made the country more nationalistic. Imagine Russia attacking Mexico for humanitarian reasons. It was a lost opportunity. Russia being made almost irrelevant probably opened the door to this iteration of Putin. Now that we are here, we have to make Russia pay a significant price.sycasey said:
The US probably should have engaged in some kind of a Marshall Plan with Russia after the fall of the Soviet empire (similar to Germany and Japan after WW2), but instead we kind of left them to twist in the wind and get picked over by rapacious businessmen. Our leaders seemed to think that capitalism and democracy would solve everything in Russia by themselves. That was definitely a mistake.
However, there are many many many steps from that to Russia invading neighbors who are no threat to them, and you can't pin all of those on the US or NATO. Mostly it's about Putin and his wild overreactions to everything.
Whether you are right about different directions the world could have gone with Putin and Russia to avoid their descent into ****hole petro-state run by a warlord and kleptocracy is interesting but I suspect that the forces for malevolence were too strong to contain. There is no world we could have created that would have permitted Putin to amass a $200B fortune on the backs of his peasant-class and that's simply too enticing for a guy like him.
Kleptocracy is not inconsistent with peaceful nation that is allied with the US. Philippines may be an example. South Korea 20 years ago is another example. We now have a lot on our hands fighting against Russia and China, and it would have been good to have more allies against China. Trump, Bernie Sanders, etc. screwed up our last good chance to have Asian countries join us economically against China, and Trump screwed up the opportunity to get EU to ally with us against China, but we are where we are.
And China (capitalism). That didn't work either.sycasey said:
The US probably should have engaged in some kind of a Marshall Plan with Russia after the fall of the Soviet empire (similar to Germany and Japan after WW2), but instead we kind of left them to twist in the wind and get picked over by rapacious businessmen. Our leaders seemed to think that capitalism and democracy would solve everything in Russia by themselves. That was definitely a mistake.
However, there are many many many steps from that to Russia invading neighbors who are no threat to them, and you can't pin all of those on the US or NATO. Mostly it's about Putin and his wild overreactions to everything.
That's a very favorable view of a guy with his background.
tequila4kapp said:
That's a very favorable view of a guy with his background.
No delusions about his lack of moral center or his wickedness. Mostly about whether we could have brought him to our corner and contained him similar what we do with other evil leaders like Duterte and now Marcos. We deal with very evil leaders, including in our alliance with Saudi Arabia. With Putin, we took away all of the carrots and left him only with a stick that he had to rebel against to maintain his appearance of strength. Just my take. Now we have to deal harshly to make sure he knows the high cost of invading another country but I ultimately see China as our true enemy.
calbear93 said:tequila4kapp said:
That's a very favorable view of a guy with his background.
No delusions about his lack of moral center or his wickedness. Mostly about whether we could have brought him to our corner and contained him similar what we do with other evil leaders like Duterte and now Marcos. We deal with very evil leaders, including in our alliance with Saudi Arabia. With Putin, we took away all of the carrots and left him only with a stick that he had to rebel against to maintain his appearance of strength. Just my take. Now we have to deal harshly to make sure he knows the high cost of invading another country but I ultimately see China as our true enemy.
This has basically been my take as well here, for several months. However, many people are looking for a clearer good/bad narrative and they continually respond with, "no, this is Putin's fault", even though most of us acknowledge that time and time again.
I only respond with this when someone posts claims that this was a "NATO-provoked war" or something like that. No it wasn't. Global politics are complicated so there is almost always some blame to go around for anything bad that happens, I get that. But if your first go-to is the US or NATO when talking about who is responsible for the war, I'm going to push back on that.Big C said:calbear93 said:tequila4kapp said:
That's a very favorable view of a guy with his background.
No delusions about his lack of moral center or his wickedness. Mostly about whether we could have brought him to our corner and contained him similar what we do with other evil leaders like Duterte and now Marcos. We deal with very evil leaders, including in our alliance with Saudi Arabia. With Putin, we took away all of the carrots and left him only with a stick that he had to rebel against to maintain his appearance of strength. Just my take. Now we have to deal harshly to make sure he knows the high cost of invading another country but I ultimately see China as our true enemy.
This has basically been my take as well here, for several months. However, many people are looking for a clearer good/bad narrative and they continually respond with, "no, this is Putin's fault", even though most of us acknowledge that time and time again.
sycasey said:I only respond with this when someone posts claims that this was a "NATO-provoked war" or something like that. No it wasn't. Global politics are complicated so there is almost always some blame to go around for anything bad that happens, I get that. But if your first go-to is the US or NATO when talking about who is responsible for the war, I'm going to push back on that.Big C said:calbear93 said:tequila4kapp said:
That's a very favorable view of a guy with his background.
No delusions about his lack of moral center or his wickedness. Mostly about whether we could have brought him to our corner and contained him similar what we do with other evil leaders like Duterte and now Marcos. We deal with very evil leaders, including in our alliance with Saudi Arabia. With Putin, we took away all of the carrots and left him only with a stick that he had to rebel against to maintain his appearance of strength. Just my take. Now we have to deal harshly to make sure he knows the high cost of invading another country but I ultimately see China as our true enemy.
This has basically been my take as well here, for several months. However, many people are looking for a clearer good/bad narrative and they continually respond with, "no, this is Putin's fault", even though most of us acknowledge that time and time again.
Respect, sycasey, but I have always gone out of my way to say that Putin is responsible for this, but just about every single time I have mentioned that we might have also handled the situation better, you have pushed back, as though I was being a Putin-apologist.
Putin is responsible for the war. (Just saying it again, for when you push back again.)
People often prefer a clear narrative, but this is a complicated situation.
I don't see how anyone can presume a different course of action would have prevented Putin's revanchism. He wants to recreate mother russia. I do concede it's possible that a more conciliatory approach or appeasement or whatever you want to call it could have had a different result, but we don't really know. We know if Putin wasn't a malevolent ***** he wouldn't have attacked a peaceful neighbor.
That's why I think it's unproductive to shift blame from Putin to western leaders. We don't know if other actions we could have taken would have changed anything but we do know with absolute certainty that Putin took this action unilaterally.
To me, talking about decades-old decisions is like fouling Draymond green beyond the 3 point line with 0.5 left on the shot clock. We should never let Putin off the hook for his aggression.
And Cal88 isn't accidentally simping for Putin.
That's why I think it's unproductive to shift blame from Putin to western leaders. We don't know if other actions we could have taken would have changed anything but we do know with absolute certainty that Putin took this action unilaterally.
To me, talking about decades-old decisions is like fouling Draymond green beyond the 3 point line with 0.5 left on the shot clock. We should never let Putin off the hook for his aggression.
And Cal88 isn't accidentally simping for Putin.
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