The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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cbbass1
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In reply to sycasey • 1:14a, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."
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sycasey
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In reply to cbbass1 • 6:20a, 9/27/22
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.
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Cal88
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7:15a, 9/27/22
Big news today, both Nordstream 1 and 2 were sabotaged near Danish waters, apparently the damage done will take months to repair. Germany and western Europe are in big trouble, economies will be devastated.
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Cal88
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In reply to sycasey • 7:38a, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.

The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them. These new borders are now set in stone, they cannot abandon their commitment to the population of those 4 provinces, who are now formally Russian citizens.

You're under the belief that Ukraine can win those territories back militarily, which is the impression vehicled in social media, but that is highly unlikely, with Russia now fully invested politically in a military escalation that will triple its boots on the ground. They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists. The 260k men who have allegedly skipped town represent about 1% of that total pool.

Ukraine can either accept the current borders, or extend the war and lose another 10%-15% of its current territory, its access to the Black Sea, and somewhere around 100,000-200,000 more of its men. The recent advances in Kharkov have had the effect of raising their hopes of a reconquest, and also raised their pain threshold, so the war will most likely go on...
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oski003
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:44a, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.

The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them. These new borders are now set in stone, they cannot abandon their commitment to the population of those 4 provinces, who are now formally Russian citizens.

You're under the belief that Ukraine can win those territories back militarily, which is the impression vehicled in social media, but that is highly unlikely, with Russia now fully invested politically in a military escalation that will triple its boots on the ground. They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists. The 260k men who have allegedly skipped town represent about 1% of that total pool.

Ukraine can either accept the current borders, or extend the war and lose another 10%-15% of its current territory, its access to the Black Sea, and somewhere around 100,000-200,000 more of its men. The recent advances in Kharkov have had the effect of raising their hopes of a reconquest, and also raised their pain threshold, so the war will most likely go on...


USucks and you speak different languages. You say:
"They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists."

He says:
They are calling up people for one day training and being thrown to the front lines. Citizens are fleeing in mass so as not to fight.

Are you guys both spinning the same facts?
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sycasey
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In reply to Cal88 • 7:57a, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?
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Eastern Oregon Bear
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:03a, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
Big news today, both Nordstream 1 and 2 were sabotaged near Danish waters, apparently the damage done will take months to repair. Germany and western Europe are in big trouble, economies will be devastated.
It could be sabotage (by Russia?) or it could be that high quality Russian product reliability. The timing is suspicious though.
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Cal88
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In reply to oski003 • 8:04a, 9/27/22
oski003 said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.

The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them. These new borders are now set in stone, they cannot abandon their commitment to the population of those 4 provinces, who are now formally Russian citizens.

You're under the belief that Ukraine can win those territories back militarily, which is the impression vehicled in social media, but that is highly unlikely, with Russia now fully invested politically in a military escalation that will triple its boots on the ground. They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists. The 260k men who have allegedly skipped town represent about 1% of that total pool.

Ukraine can either accept the current borders, or extend the war and lose another 10%-15% of its current territory, its access to the Black Sea, and somewhere around 100,000-200,000 more of its men. The recent advances in Kharkov have had the effect of raising their hopes of a reconquest, and also raised their pain threshold, so the war will most likely go on...

USucks and you speak different languages. You say:
"They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists."

He says:
They are calling up people for one day training and being thrown to the front lines. Citizens are fleeing in mass so as not to fight.

Are you guys both spinning the same facts?

There is no doubt that the information warfare has been largely one-sided, especially in the West, the Russians sucking at it. You have to dig deeper to get the real picture, looking at both sides.

From what I understand, the Russians are going to gradually raise their forces in Ukraine from 175,000 to somewhere around 300,000-450,000, ramping them up gradually through the Fall and Winter. Along with this, I would expect more aggressive wartime measures against Ukraine, like taking out their infrastructure, which they have refrained from to date or kept on a smaller scale.

Ukraine has largely expended its military hardware (tanks, armored vehicles, jet fighters, etc) and the Soviet-era stockpile of its NATO allies, while Russia has 80%-95% of its inventory available, with its military-industrial complex intact and ramping up production. They've also closed some important gaps in their arsenal, especially with the injection of Iranian drones, which have proven to be highly effective. The Russians are allegedly already producing these drones under license in large numbers.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/iranian-drones-ukraine-russia-war-00058802
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Cal88
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In reply to sycasey • 8:19a, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?

It's a political decision, they're all in. Also, if those territories revert back to Ukraine, there will be terrible exactions on the local Russian population. I know you think Ukrainians are as pure as the driven snow, but there has been some real ethnic hatred in the region, and any citizen from Kherson, Zaporozhie or the other provinces who has voted in the referendum is legally considered a traitor passable of a minimum of 5 years in jail, or worse.


Quote:
Ukrainians who help Russian-backed referendums to annex large swathes of the country will face treason charges and at least five years in jail, Ukraine's presidential adviser has said, as voting in four regions entered its last day.

"We have lists of names of people who have been involved in some way," presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak said in an interview with Swiss newspaper Blick.

"We are talking about hundreds of collaborators. They will be prosecuted for treason. They face prison sentences of at least five years."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-27/ukrainians-involved-in-russian-backed-referendums-face-treason-c/101479866

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sycasey
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:22a, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?

It's a political decision, they're all in. Also, if those territories revert back to Ukraine, there will be terrible exactions on the local Russian population. I know you think Ukrainians are as pure as the driven snow, but there has been some real ethnic hatred in the region, and any citizen from Kherson, Zaporozhie or the other provinces who has voted in the referendum is legally considered a traitor passable of a minimum of 5 years in jail, or worse.
If it's a political decision then they could decide to reverse it, no? No one is actually forcing Russia to intervene anywhere. If they wanted to take their collaborators back with them to Russia so they could avoid Ukrainian prosecution they could also do that.

How do you see Russia's actions here as being different from the US occupying in Iraq or Afghanistan? Or were you in favor of those? Obviously if and when we left those places there was going to be terrible human cost as well.
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Cal88
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In reply to sycasey • 8:44a, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?

It's a political decision, they're all in. Also, if those territories revert back to Ukraine, there will be terrible exactions on the local Russian population. I know you think Ukrainians are as pure as the driven snow, but there has been some real ethnic hatred in the region, and any citizen from Kherson, Zaporozhie or the other provinces who has voted in the referendum is legally considered a traitor passable of a minimum of 5 years in jail, or worse.
If it's a political decision then they could decide to reverse it, no? No one is actually forcing Russia to intervene anywhere. If they wanted to take their collaborators back with them to Russia so they could avoid Ukrainian prosecution they could also do that.

How do you see Russia's actions here as being different from the US occupying in Iraq or Afghanistan? Or were you in favor of those? Obviously if and when we left those places there was going to be terrible human cost as well.

I'm definitely against US occupation of Iraq, but one way to look at what is happening in Ukraine today with the context of Iraq or Syria is that the majority of residents in the 4 provinces are a bit like the Kurds in the Levant, who welcomed the invaders.
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sycasey
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:55a, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?

It's a political decision, they're all in. Also, if those territories revert back to Ukraine, there will be terrible exactions on the local Russian population. I know you think Ukrainians are as pure as the driven snow, but there has been some real ethnic hatred in the region, and any citizen from Kherson, Zaporozhie or the other provinces who has voted in the referendum is legally considered a traitor passable of a minimum of 5 years in jail, or worse.
If it's a political decision then they could decide to reverse it, no? No one is actually forcing Russia to intervene anywhere. If they wanted to take their collaborators back with them to Russia so they could avoid Ukrainian prosecution they could also do that.

How do you see Russia's actions here as being different from the US occupying in Iraq or Afghanistan? Or were you in favor of those? Obviously if and when we left those places there was going to be terrible human cost as well.

I'm definitely against US occupation of Iraq, but one way to look at what is happening in Ukraine today with the context of Iraq or Syria is that the majority of residents in the 4 provinces are a bit like the Kurds in the Levant, who welcomed the invaders.
Let's not revise history here. Russia has been forced to fall back to the goal of only keeping those 4 provinces. They originally went after Kyiv, which tells you everything about their real intentions. It's not just about protecting ethnic Russians in a few provinces.
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dimitrig
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In reply to sycasey • 9:11a, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?

It's a political decision, they're all in. Also, if those territories revert back to Ukraine, there will be terrible exactions on the local Russian population. I know you think Ukrainians are as pure as the driven snow, but there has been some real ethnic hatred in the region, and any citizen from Kherson, Zaporozhie or the other provinces who has voted in the referendum is legally considered a traitor passable of a minimum of 5 years in jail, or worse.
If it's a political decision then they could decide to reverse it, no? No one is actually forcing Russia to intervene anywhere. If they wanted to take their collaborators back with them to Russia so they could avoid Ukrainian prosecution they could also do that.

How do you see Russia's actions here as being different from the US occupying in Iraq or Afghanistan? Or were you in favor of those? Obviously if and when we left those places there was going to be terrible human cost as well.

I'm definitely against US occupation of Iraq, but one way to look at what is happening in Ukraine today with the context of Iraq or Syria is that the majority of residents in the 4 provinces are a bit like the Kurds in the Levant, who welcomed the invaders.
Let's not revise history here. Russia has been forced to fall back to the goal of only keeping those 4 provinces. They originally went after Kyiv, which tells you everything about their real intentions. It's not just about protecting ethnic Russians in a few provinces.

That was just a big feint to draw Ukrainian forces back to the capital and away from the REAL objectives in the east.

The activity since then has been part of a master scheme of luring Ukraine into a sense of false confidence so that they blunder directly into the trap Russia has set for them.

The new troop call ups are just for policing the soon to be captured liberated territories and have nothing to do with Russian losses at all.






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blungld
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In reply to golden sloth • 2:20p, 9/27/22
golden sloth said:

Stop lying!

The Minsk accords has nothing, absolutely nothing to do with why Russia invaded. Russia invaded to conquer and colonize Ukraine. They dont believe Ukraine has a right to exist. They dont believe the people of Ukraine are an actual 'people'. Putin said so himself at the outset of the invasion.

Stop saying Russia is trying to liberate or defend anybody. They arent. They invaded a peaceful country to conquer their land, and if it had gone well, they would be invading someone else right now (probably moldova).
He has completed bought into his world view which he thinks is objective and scholarly...the problem is he has been wrong repeatedly and much of what he says is just total BS. He LOVES justifying that pro-russian propaganda and playing it off as "real" political analysis. He's as corrupted as Notre Dame ref.

But I think he backpacked in Europe once, so...
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cbbass1
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In reply to sycasey • 2:21p, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.
Putin invaded because he saw Ukraine/NATO/U.S. as an expanding existential threat, from as far back as 2008, and made that clear repeatedly through diplomatic channels.

He knows that the U.S. & NATO won't stop until he's dead or out of power. Boris Johnson's trip to Ukraine proved it. IF Putin "just stopped," the U.S./NATO would re-take the Donbass, go back to persecuting the ethnic Russians there, and set up missiles on Russia's border, daring Putin to do something about it.

"Just stopping" would also leave Crimea to NATO, effectively abandoning Russia's entire Black Sea Navy, and ceding it to NATO/U.S. -- Just before Winter.

Putin won't stop because the U.S. won't stop.

Military domination of the Eurasian continent, including "regime change" in Russia, has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since 2000. The U.S. NeoCons aren't about to give up just when they see themselves on the threshold of another victory.

If you haven't read this, you should. It helps to put our last 22 years of foreign policy into context:

The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski (1997)
https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboard-American-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/046509435X/

I picked it up & read it a couple days after 9/11/2001. Haven't been surprised by anything since.



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sycasey
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In reply to cbbass1 • 2:33p, 9/27/22
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.
Putin invaded because he saw Ukraine/NATO/U.S. as an expanding existential threat, from as far back as 2008, and made that clear repeatedly through diplomatic channels.

He knows that the U.S. & NATO won't stop until he's dead or out of power. Boris Johnson's trip to Ukraine proved it. IF Putin "just stopped," the U.S./NATO would re-take the Donbass, go back to persecuting the ethnic Russians there, and set up missiles on Russia's border, daring Putin to do something about it.

"Just stopping" would also leave Crimea to NATO, effectively abandoning Russia's entire Black Sea Navy, and ceding it to NATO/U.S. -- Just before Winter.

Putin won't stop because the U.S. won't stop.

Military domination of the Eurasian continent, including "regime change" in Russia, has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since 2000. The U.S. NeoCons aren't about to give up just when they see themselves on the threshold of another victory.

If you haven't read this, you should. It helps to put our last 22 years of foreign policy into context:

The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski (1997)
https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboard-American-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/046509435X/

I picked it up & read it a couple days after 9/11/2001. Haven't been surprised by anything since.
What is the "existential threat" that Ukraine or NATO pose to Russia? You think NATO is going to invade Russia? If not, then the threats are not remotely equivalent. NATO is a voluntary military alliance, not an invasion of sovereign nations.

The U.S. and NATO would not "take" the Donbas or Crimea, Ukraine would keep them, based on national borders Russia already agreed to years ago. Ukraine is not in NATO! They probably wouldn't even be close to being in NATO, except Russia's invasions have accelerated the need for that in a lot of people's minds. Finland didn't want to be in NATO before the most recent invasion, and now they do. That's Russia's fault, not NATO's.

Your framing just seems incredibly off-base to me. False equivalencies everywhere.
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Big C
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In reply to sycasey • 2:41p, 9/27/22
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them.
Why not? What's stopping them?

What's stopping Russia from ending the invasion is that they are an azzhole country*, with a supreme azzhole at the helm.


* the Russian people are not necessarily azzholes, but it is an azzhole country, to be sure
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sonofabear51
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9:09p, 9/27/22
No@$% question at all. F those guys. TY Big C. To quote Cal Strong, Big C posting hello strong!
Start Slowly and taper off
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golden sloth
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:20p, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
oski003 said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.

The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them. These new borders are now set in stone, they cannot abandon their commitment to the population of those 4 provinces, who are now formally Russian citizens.

You're under the belief that Ukraine can win those territories back militarily, which is the impression vehicled in social media, but that is highly unlikely, with Russia now fully invested politically in a military escalation that will triple its boots on the ground. They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists. The 260k men who have allegedly skipped town represent about 1% of that total pool.

Ukraine can either accept the current borders, or extend the war and lose another 10%-15% of its current territory, its access to the Black Sea, and somewhere around 100,000-200,000 more of its men. The recent advances in Kharkov have had the effect of raising their hopes of a reconquest, and also raised their pain threshold, so the war will most likely go on...

USucks and you speak different languages. You say:
"They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists."

He says:
They are calling up people for one day training and being thrown to the front lines. Citizens are fleeing in mass so as not to fight.

Are you guys both spinning the same facts?

There is no doubt that the information warfare has been largely one-sided, especially in the West, the Russians sucking at it. You have to dig deeper to get the real picture, looking at both sides.

From what I understand, the Russians are going to gradually raise their forces in Ukraine from 175,000 to somewhere around 300,000-450,000, ramping them up gradually through the Fall and Winter. Along with this, I would expect more aggressive wartime measures against Ukraine, like taking out their infrastructure, which they have refrained from to date or kept on a smaller scale.

Ukraine has largely expended its military hardware (tanks, armored vehicles, jet fighters, etc) and the Soviet-era stockpile of its NATO allies, while Russia has 80%-95% of its inventory available, with its military-industrial complex intact and ramping up production. They've also closed some important gaps in their arsenal, especially with the injection of Iranian drones, which have proven to be highly effective. The Russians are allegedly already producing these drones under license in large numbers.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/26/iranian-drones-ukraine-russia-war-00058802


If Russia were able to manufacture weapons they would not be reaching out to Iran and North Korea. Russia's military industrial complex rotted away under Putin (much like the mothballed military equipment that never received the maintenance it needed).
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golden sloth
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:35p, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.

The war started in 2014, with the two Donbass provinces fighting for their independence. In any case, Russia is never going to withdraw from the new lines that will be set this week, they cannot back down, any retreat from these lines is now politically impossible for them. These new borders are now set in stone, they cannot abandon their commitment to the population of those 4 provinces, who are now formally Russian citizens.

You're under the belief that Ukraine can win those territories back militarily, which is the impression vehicled in social media, but that is highly unlikely, with Russia now fully invested politically in a military escalation that will triple its boots on the ground. They have a pool of 25 million men of military age who have already served and are effectively reservists. The 260k men who have allegedly skipped town represent about 1% of that total pool.

Ukraine can either accept the current borders, or extend the war and lose another 10%-15% of its current territory, its access to the Black Sea, and somewhere around 100,000-200,000 more of its men. The recent advances in Kharkov have had the effect of raising their hopes of a reconquest, and also raised their pain threshold, so the war will most likely go on...


No, the partial mobilization will not lead to an influx of 300,000 troops to the front line. Russia does not have the capacity to train 300,000 troops to give them the combat readiness worthy of the title of 'soldier or troop', they would be a 'dude with a gun', unless they want to wait until spring 2023.

Also, the morale of russian troops is terrible, hence the recent collapse. The russian soldiers are exhausted and dont want to fight and die in Ukraine, which is why Russia was relying on mercs. The 300,000 call up will be to begin rotating the front line troops. They will not have an additional 300k force on the front line.

Third, Russia does not have the armaments and logistics to supply a force that size. If the Russians cant manage to supply their current force, how are they going to manage a larger force in the future.

Putin knows he is screwed, he is desperate for a negotiation to save himself. The mobilization is a PR move to get better surrender terms before he loses more soldiers, more equipment, more land, and endures greater embarassment.

The fact is Russia has already lost this war. They have no hope of victory, they are just trying to mitigate this loss. The perception and capability of Russia as international actor has vanished.
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In reply to Cal88 • 10:42p, 9/27/22
Cal88 said:
golden sloth said:
Cal88 said:
This is a very relevant, and revealing piece from Zelensky on this subject:



Europe is an old continent, with a very diverse population. You cannot impose a unique national identity on a whole country, especially when that country here has become the largest country in Europe. And in Ukraine's case, that modern national identity has been defined in opposition to the cultural identity of a large minority.

In Europe today, England cannot tell Scotland to lose their kilts or butt off, Spain cannot prevent its Basques and Catalans from speaking or teaching that language, France cannot stamp out Breton or Corsican identity. If 50.01% of Scots or Quebecers vote to leave their federal national structure, they will be granted independence. That's how civilized countries operate.

Zelensky's government had the opportunity to accommodate for his main national minority through the Minsk Agreements, which were forged with the assistance of Merkel and Hollande, and which provided a peaceful framework to resolve the Donbass conflict. He refused to abide by it, as reflected in the video above, and the current war is a direct consequence of this stance.


Stop lying!

The Minsk accords has nothing, absolutely nothing to do with why Russia invaded. Russia invaded to conquer and colonize Ukraine. They dont believe Ukraine has a right to exist. They dont believe the people of Ukraine are an actual 'people'. Putin said so himself at the outset of the invasion.

Stop saying Russia is trying to liberate or defend anybody. They arent. They invaded a peaceful country to conquer their land, and if it had gone well, they would be invading someone else right now (probably moldova).

I've provided evidence above of Zelensky denying the right of Russian minorities to exist in the Donbass. The moment a central government denies the right of a long-established, large minority to live within its borders in their own cultural norms and language, it loses its local legitimacy as a modern, inclusive democracy.

The Minsk Agreement provided cultural autonomy for the Donbass. Its violation by Ukraine alone was not the reason Russia invaded, the other reason was that Ukraine was being used as a NATO base, much like Cuba was used as a Soviet base in the early 60s, which in and of itself, would have been a trigger for a full-on US invasion of Cuba and regime change.

These two conditions, the neutrality of Ukraine and the application of Minsk II, along with the recognition of Crimea as Russian, would have staved off this war, no question. Those were the terms put together by Chancellor Olaf Scholtz in February, and nearly the same terms Ukraine was close to agreeing with after teh Instanbul talks in early Spring. In both instances, a potential peaceful settlement was scuttled by the personal interventions of Boris Johnson, Victoria Nuland and other NATO neocons.


I thought the invasion was to denazify Ukraine? Why does the reason for the invasion keep changing? Does it have anything to do with why the goals for the invasion keep changing?
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blungld
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10:53a, 9/28/22
Next week I plan to go to Canada. I am going to break into an English speaking house and force them to vote on me annexing them to my estate. I mean they speak English and they are going to vote and I've always had my eye on that land, so let me show you some charts and graphs and YouTube videos that make me feel right, superior, and ethical.
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oski003
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In reply to blungld • 12:49p, 9/28/22
blungld said:
Next week I plan to go to Canada. I am going to break into an English speaking house and force them to vote on me annexing them to my estate. I mean they speak English and they are going to vote and I've always had my eye on that land, so let me show you some charts and graphs and YouTube videos that make me feel right, superior, and ethical.


Can you posts these charts and graphs here? I highly recommend not doing that. I believe the police will put you in jail.
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bearister
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7:08a, 9/30/22
Putin annexes four regions of Ukraine in major escalation of Russia's war


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/30/putin-russia-war-annexes-ukraine-regions?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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6:44p, 9/30/22
Biden imposes new Sanctions.


https://www.reuters.com/world/us-slaps-sanctions-russia-over-annexation-swath-ukraine-2022-09-30/

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Unit2Sucks
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2:05p, 10/1/22
I don't know what's more ridiculous, that Putin thinks he is fooling anyone or the people pretending to be fooled by him. He's proven again and again that he's not to be trusted and that his military is a joke, and yet we still have people pretending otherwise.















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sycasey
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In reply to dajo9 • 9:04a, 10/2/22
dajo9 said:
Cal88 said:
Looks like a solid win for Ukraine in the north, and a loss in the south. Overall though, it's been the best week for Ukrainian armed forces since Spring, it's a big boost for their morale.

If you want a solid, neutral and up to date picture of frontline movements, this is a good channel, run by a military geek from Singapore:

https://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia


This is Cal88 tipping us off that Russia is about to be humiliated in the south also

Almost there.

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8:32a, 10/3/22
In 1989, I moved to DC as a student and met an official translator from Moscow. He had met my rocker druggie brother at an event by met socialite parents. Dimitri later explained at all his international travels and events he only met the professional snob types and in meeting my brother it was a chance to expand his cross cultural understandings. Dimitri was official in Russian, English, and French.

My brother had met him separately a couple of times but after I moved to DC he asked me to join, as he wasn't really comfortable 1 on 1.

Dimitri and I hit it off and met a number of times at places like KramerBooks and Afterwards in DuPont Circle.

In Jan 1990, I traveled to Moscow as part of an exchange. Was there for one week and I have interesting stories about that.

But this post is to say that Dimitri emailed me recently to say that his 23 year old grandson had fled to Armenia in order to escape conscription, and they are working out his next steps/future.

Dimitri met a large international CEO 30 years ago and parlayed that into a western career, has lived in California for 25 years. One of his sons joined, is a high tech multimillionaire. The older stepson was stubborn at change (friends) and stayed behind. See what that gets you?!!!
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Unit2Sucks
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10:04a, 10/3/22
In good news, at least Russians appear to have wised up to how bad this is for Russia. Seems like people are no longer bothering to pretend.



Even the paid propagandists have lost faith.



Probably has something to do with the fact that Russia keeps losing on the battlefield and is terrible at military logistics.




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dimitrig
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 10:19a, 10/3/22
Unit2Sucks said:
In good news, at least Russians appear to have wised up to how bad this is for Russia. Seems like people are no longer bothering to pretend.



Even the paid propagandists have lost faith.



Probably has something to do with the fact that Russia keeps losing on the battlefield and is terrible at military logistics.






Did he check on eBay?
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cbbass1
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In reply to sycasey • 1:02p, 10/3/22
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.
Putin invaded because he saw Ukraine/NATO/U.S. as an expanding existential threat, from as far back as 2008, and made that clear repeatedly through diplomatic channels.

He knows that the U.S. & NATO won't stop until he's dead or out of power. Boris Johnson's trip to Ukraine proved it. IF Putin "just stopped," the U.S./NATO would re-take the Donbass, go back to persecuting the ethnic Russians there, and set up missiles on Russia's border, daring Putin to do something about it.

"Just stopping" would also leave Crimea to NATO, effectively abandoning Russia's entire Black Sea Navy, and ceding it to NATO/U.S. -- Just before Winter.

Putin won't stop because the U.S. won't stop.

Military domination of the Eurasian continent, including "regime change" in Russia, has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since 2000. The U.S. NeoCons aren't about to give up just when they see themselves on the threshold of another victory.

If you haven't read this, you should. It helps to put our last 22 years of foreign policy into context:

The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski (1997)
https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboard-American-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/046509435X/

I picked it up & read it a couple days after 9/11/2001. Haven't been surprised by anything since.
What is the "existential threat" that Ukraine or NATO pose to Russia? You think NATO is going to invade Russia? If not, then the threats are not remotely equivalent. NATO is a voluntary military alliance, not an invasion of sovereign nations.

The U.S. and NATO would not "take" the Donbas or Crimea, Ukraine would keep them, based on national borders Russia already agreed to years ago. Ukraine is not in NATO! They probably wouldn't even be close to being in NATO, except Russia's invasions have accelerated the need for that in a lot of people's minds. Finland didn't want to be in NATO before the most recent invasion, and now they do. That's Russia's fault, not NATO's.

Your framing just seems incredibly off-base to me. False equivalencies everywhere.
What do you mean? Other than the U.S. being committed to "regime change" in Russia and/or their destruction for decades?

You should know by now that when people tell you who they are, in great detail, and what they're willing to do, you should believe them.

The U.S. NeoCons, and their mission to dominate the world militarily, economically, and politically, are as much of an enemy to peace, democracy, and prosperity as Putin is. Even more so, IMO.

These are the people who lied us into illegal wars in Afghanistan & Iraq, spent $trillions of U.S. Taxpayers' money, and killed millions throughout the world in their lust for global dominance. They clearly learned nothing from our experience in Vietnam.

It sickens me to see the West cheering for these people, as if they were somehow the "good guys." There are no "good guys."

The U.S. NeoCons started out in the Cheney administration, within the Republican Party. After Trump embarrassed them & cast them out of the Party in the 2016 campaign, they migrated over to the Democratic Party, and have been welcomed there with open arms by the Dem establishment, their "defense" industry sponsors, and MSNBC/CNN.

These people need to be held accountable for their war crimes & crimes against humanity. They have spared no expense, and have operated in secret, hiding their ambitions and actions from the American people who pay their bills, and never having to answer the question, "How are you gonna pay for that?"

The NeoCons screamed bloody murder when Biden followed through on Trump's plan to get U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. Since then, they've managed to re-assert themselves, and they currently fill the foreign policy vacuum that Biden has left for them.

We're careening toward World War, complete with nuclear confrontation in Ukraine. This (U.S. foreign policy) needs to be a #1 topic of discussion in the upcoming elections. Sadly, with our intentional U.S. & global economic meltdown, foreign policy is either on the back burner, or nowhere near the stovetop at all.
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sycasey
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In reply to cbbass1 • 1:24p, 10/3/22
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
cbbass1 said:
sycasey said:
Russia could stop having any logistical issues by just ending the invasion.
They tried, and reached an agreement with Zelenskyy -- but UK PM Boris Johnson, with the blessings of the U.S., said "No way."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Putin would rather keep the Donbass & have both sides take the winter off, but the U.S. & NATO won't have it.

The U.S. & NATO are committed to fighting Russia "down to the last Ukrainian."

I don't see anything here that tells us Russia can't just withdraw. The only reason any agreement has to be negotiated is because they started the war.
Putin invaded because he saw Ukraine/NATO/U.S. as an expanding existential threat, from as far back as 2008, and made that clear repeatedly through diplomatic channels.

He knows that the U.S. & NATO won't stop until he's dead or out of power. Boris Johnson's trip to Ukraine proved it. IF Putin "just stopped," the U.S./NATO would re-take the Donbass, go back to persecuting the ethnic Russians there, and set up missiles on Russia's border, daring Putin to do something about it.

"Just stopping" would also leave Crimea to NATO, effectively abandoning Russia's entire Black Sea Navy, and ceding it to NATO/U.S. -- Just before Winter.

Putin won't stop because the U.S. won't stop.

Military domination of the Eurasian continent, including "regime change" in Russia, has been a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy since 2000. The U.S. NeoCons aren't about to give up just when they see themselves on the threshold of another victory.

If you haven't read this, you should. It helps to put our last 22 years of foreign policy into context:

The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski (1997)
https://www.amazon.com/Grand-Chessboard-American-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/046509435X/

I picked it up & read it a couple days after 9/11/2001. Haven't been surprised by anything since.
What is the "existential threat" that Ukraine or NATO pose to Russia? You think NATO is going to invade Russia? If not, then the threats are not remotely equivalent. NATO is a voluntary military alliance, not an invasion of sovereign nations.

The U.S. and NATO would not "take" the Donbas or Crimea, Ukraine would keep them, based on national borders Russia already agreed to years ago. Ukraine is not in NATO! They probably wouldn't even be close to being in NATO, except Russia's invasions have accelerated the need for that in a lot of people's minds. Finland didn't want to be in NATO before the most recent invasion, and now they do. That's Russia's fault, not NATO's.

Your framing just seems incredibly off-base to me. False equivalencies everywhere.
What do you mean? Other than the U.S. being committed to "regime change" in Russia and/or their destruction for decades?

You should know by now that when people tell you who they are, in great detail, and what they're willing to do, you should believe them.

The U.S. NeoCons, and their mission to dominate the world militarily, economically, and politically, are as much of an enemy to peace, democracy, and prosperity as Putin is. Even more so, IMO.

These are the people who lied us into illegal wars in Afghanistan & Iraq, spent $trillions of U.S. Taxpayers' money, and killed millions throughout the world in their lust for global dominance. They clearly learned nothing from our experience in Vietnam.

It sickens me to see the West cheering for these people, as if they were somehow the "good guys." There are no "good guys."

The U.S. NeoCons started out in the Cheney administration, within the Republican Party. After Trump embarrassed them & cast them out of the Party in the 2016 campaign, they migrated over to the Democratic Party, and have been welcomed there with open arms by the Dem establishment, their "defense" industry sponsors, and MSNBC/CNN.

These people need to be held accountable for their war crimes & crimes against humanity. They have spared no expense, and have operated in secret, hiding their ambitions and actions from the American people who pay their bills, and never having to answer the question, "How are you gonna pay for that?"

The NeoCons screamed bloody murder when Biden followed through on Trump's plan to get U.S. troops out of Afghanistan. Since then, they've managed to re-assert themselves, and they currently fill the foreign policy vacuum that Biden has left for them.

We're careening toward World War, complete with nuclear confrontation in Ukraine. This (U.S. foreign policy) needs to be a #1 topic of discussion in the upcoming elections. Sadly, with our intentional U.S. & global economic meltdown, foreign policy is either on the back burner, or nowhere near the stovetop at all.
The Neocons suck, but I'm not seeing where they ever threatened to militarily invade Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is currently invading Ukraine. I don't see why the Neocons are still the big threat here, other than if your mindset is just to tie everything back to being the USA's fault.
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Unit2Sucks
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10:41a, 10/5/22
Rather than discuss this neocon madness, I'm going to point to a good thread highlighting how successful Ukraine has been on the battle field. I won't bother to state the bona fides of the guy, but sufficed to say he has forgotten far more about warfare than any of us will ever know in our lifetimes. He shows that rather than Ukraine's wins being a product of some short-term push (as certain people have said to downplay the results), it's really a product of committed execution to a strategy. Strategy is something notably lacking in Russia's military, which is why they are going to continue to not win despite Putin's desire to eradicate Ukraine.








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chazzed
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12:03p, 10/5/22
A good article on how Cal88 and Fox News being in Putin's corner do America and the world no good:
https://www.thebulwark.com/fox-news-putin-propaganda-primetime/
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1:42p, 10/5/22
Putin and the prince: fears in west as Russia and Saudi Arabia deepen ties | Russia | The Guardian


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/05/putin-mohammed-bin-salman-russia-saudi-arabia-deepen-ties
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