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Sycasey wrote:

It's best just to wait until Cal88's position is proven wrong yet again. It always happens eventually.

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Like the time I was widely mocked on this board for predicting back in February of 2020 that most economic and public activity in the country would be shut down due to covid?

People thought I was insane because I've suggested back then that the NCAA tourney and college graduations would be cancelled. That's the kind of abuse I am willing to put myself through.

The point here wrt Ukraine, is that whether due to ideology, lack of perspective or simply not being open to or able to process different well-informed viewpoints like those of MacGregor or Swiss colonel Jacques Beaud, you are ultimately shielding yourself from reality here.

I do seek out well-informed views and analyses from hardcore NATO fans or "the other side", for example on the Cardboard. which is 100% hardcore pro-Zelensky, there is a long Ukraine thread that includes a couple of military experts/contractors that do a good job covering the military hardware side of the conflict.

But I think most hardcore "slava ukraini" types here like yourself are completely closed off to information and analyses that go counter beliefs shaped by the MSM. It's mostly a case of cognitive dissonance, Golden Sloth's attitude just now is very good example of this, when he refused to engage in a discussion with "internet people" when confronted with a challenge on his news source.

Russians still targeting civilians.

They destroy a 9 story residential apartment building killing 12, including a 15 year old girl.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/14/world/russia-ukraine-news

Cal88 said:

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Sycasey wrote:

It's best just to wait until Cal88's position is proven wrong yet again. It always happens eventually.

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Like the time I was widely mocked on this board for predicting back in February of 2020 that most economic and public activity in the country would be shut down due to covid?

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Stopped clock, etc.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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Quote:

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Sycasey wrote:

It's best just to wait until Cal88's position is proven wrong yet again. It always happens eventually.

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Like the time I was widely mocked on this board for predicting back in February of 2020 that most economic and public activity in the country would be shut down due to covid?

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Stopped clock, etc.

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Speaking of 2020, cal88 never did tell us how much alcohol he had to buy for his lost bets that Trump would win the election

You mean the stolen election.

A young man just posted his new war analysis on HistoryLessons. I like the maps, and humor.

movielover said:

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You mean the stolen election.

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You still sound butt-hurt.
And delusional.

The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Dnipro is now up to 29.

I thought that Cal88 said that the Russians weren't targeting civilians?

DiabloWags said:

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The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Dnipro is now up to 29.

I thought that Cal88 said that the Russians weren't targeting civilians?

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Why are you concluding they are targeting civilians? Are missiles 100% accurate? With that logic, I wouldn't trust you to mow my lawn.

DiabloWags said:

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The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Dnipro is now up to 29.

I thought that Cal88 said that the Russians weren't targeting civilians?

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The apartment hit in Dnipro could have been the result of Ukrainian AA S-300 missile falling back at high speed, that's the kind of damage a large missile with a warhead of ~350lb bearing down can do.


Though it is not clear in this case whether it's the S300 that did the damage on the apartment building on its way down, or if the Russian missile that was targeted by the S300 was partially intercepted and fell down on the building, which is what Ukraine chief propagandist and Zelinsky advisor Aleksey Arestovich just claimed in an interview:

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/19052

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/19053

So you have a denial of Russians having deliberately hit that building straight from the horse's mouth. As well the Russians have launched a massive long-range missile salvo attack overnight, with up to 80 missiles, and none of them hit other apt. buildings. They are targeting infrastructure assets like powerplants, railway installations, any munitions warehouses or logistical facilities etc.

Furthermore, Ukraine has been deliberately shelling the Donbass' largest city, Donetsk, pretty much non-stop since 2014. They have been shelling markets, hotels, residential areas, not military assets.

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Dnipro is now up to 29.

I thought that Cal88 said that the Russians weren't targeting civilians?

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Why are you concluding they are targeting civilians? Are missiles 100% accurate? With that logic, I wouldn't trust you to mow my lawn.

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You're terribly naive.... and uninformed as usual.

Putin Ally Appears to Admit Russia Now Hits Civilian Targets (newsweek.com)

Russian Soldier Admits They're 'Killing Civilians And Children' In Intercepted Call (ibtimes.com)

Captured Russian Pilot Admits to Bombing Civilians, Urges Russia to Stop Assault (businessinsider.com)

movielover said:

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A young man just posted his new war analysis on HistoryLessons. I like the maps, and humor.

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This guy, Alexandre Robert, has had some of the best coverage of the war, a 15min video like this one is the result of several days' research and him having constantly followed the war since its start. He is from a military family background and is a military historian. He has posted before on Russian failures and Ukrainian wins, so he isn't biased, and he is also fluent in Russian and 4-5 other languages.

His videos are also highly entertaining with millennial production values, vs the very dry presentation of other observers like Austrian colonel Markus Reisner, here's Reisner' latest video, a recap of the first year of war, he leans a bit pro-West but is not a Ukrainian cheerleader:

bearister said:

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Russia's Vladimir Putin afraid of coup, will retire in 2023 - report - The Jerusalem Post

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-728496

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This article is run-of-the-mill NATO-aligned propaganda, same with the many articles that claim that Putin has cancer, Parkinsons, dementia and a scorching case of genital herpes...

Qutoes from this article:

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A source who was close to Putin once claimed that "the president will nominate his chosen heir already this year, instead of risking his downfall," the British Daily Mail reported on Friday. This comes after the Russian president's popularity is reportedly in a freefall because of repeated military failures in the war in Ukraine.

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Most recent poll on Putin's popularity in Russia has him at 81% favorable.

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Earlier this month, British military experts estimated that Putin might have a revolution on his hands in the next two months, if he can't change the situation in Ukraine for the better.

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Russia is recording its biggest wins in months on the biggest battle in the Ukraine war so far, the battle for Soledar-Bakhmut. Ukraine's positions in the Donbass are unravelling. I would refer you to the 16min "Soledar has fallen" video from History Legends' YT channel posted above.

American volunteer officer who took part of the Soledar battle publicly complained about the corruption and incompetence of Ukrainian military command in a series of tweets he subsequently deleted:

Putler's forces taking after both Soviet looting in WWII and Nazi looting. No one should be surprised given the staggering corruption and pro corruption message from the very top - Putler didn't become one of the wealthiest men in the world through honest work.

If only Russia were European, it would qualify as the most corrupt nation in Europe (beating out Ukraine, whose corruption Russia has done everything it can to amplify and leverage for decades). But Russia will have to settle for biggest corrupt sh(thole state adjacent to Europe.

Russian forces have looted tens of thousands of pieces, including avant-garde oil paintings and Scythian gold, from Ukraine. Experts say it is the biggest art heist since the Nazis in World War II, intended to strip Ukraine of its cultural heritage https://t.co/Cy7TlRTNw6

— Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) January 15, 2023

During the fall of Nazi Germany, American troops weren't officially supposed to do any looting, but the Soviets had a whole system for it – each soldier was allowed to mail home 11 pounds of looted goods a month, and each officer 32 pounds. https://t.co/IpYAlOmfJu pic.twitter.com/uIuSmehubu

— Ned Beauman (@NedBeauman) January 11, 2023

So much Fog of War out there. I didn't know Alexandre Robert's background, but his presentation stood out for multiple reasons. I don't know who is doing his 'geolocating', likely a team effort.

The staid Austrian, like some British analysts I've seen, mention corruption in Russia while giving Ukraine a pass. Major red flag. Same for not mentionung 200k new Russian troops and 80k volunteers.

Sad to see the death and destruction. Will the West (US) concede if Bahkmut falls? I don't think so, yet we won't send the equipment Ukraine needs, and their personnel problems compound. I hope Poland doesn't get drug into this mess.

DiabloWags said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Dnipro is now up to 29.

I thought that Cal88 said that the Russians weren't targeting civilians?

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Why are you concluding they are targeting civilians? Are missiles 100% accurate? With that logic, I wouldn't trust you to mow my lawn.

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You're terribly naive.... and uninformed as usual.

Putin Ally Appears to Admit Russia Now Hits Civilian Targets (newsweek.com)

Russian Soldier Admits They're 'Killing Civilians And Children' In Intercepted Call (ibtimes.com)

Captured Russian Pilot Admits to Bombing Civilians, Urges Russia to Stop Assault (businessinsider.com)

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This implication that a lone missile hitting an apartment is conclusive evidence they are targeting civilians is devoid of logic. At best, you can say they may have shot near and hit the building. You're terribly illogical and don't read well as usual. I wouldn't trust you to sweep outside my cardboard box.

I don't give credence to the captured pilot from March saying Russia lost the war nor the soldier saying he is fighting kids as evidence supporting your claims. I do give credence, however, to the article about them hitting infrastructure (which could come at civilian costs).

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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The death toll from a Russian missile strike on a residential apartment building in the city of Dnipro is now up to 29.

I thought that Cal88 said that the Russians weren't targeting civilians?

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Why are you concluding they are targeting civilians? Are missiles 100% accurate? With that logic, I wouldn't trust you to mow my lawn.

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You're terribly naive.... and uninformed as usual.

Putin Ally Appears to Admit Russia Now Hits Civilian Targets (newsweek.com)

Russian Soldier Admits They're 'Killing Civilians And Children' In Intercepted Call (ibtimes.com)

Captured Russian Pilot Admits to Bombing Civilians, Urges Russia to Stop Assault (businessinsider.com)

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This implication that a lone missile hitting an apartment is conclusive evidence they are targeting civilians is devoid of logic. At best, you can say they may have shot near and hit the building. You're terribly illogical and don't read well as usual. I wouldn't trust you to sweep outside my cardboard box.

I don't give credence to the captured pilot from March saying Russia lost the war nor the soldier saying he is fighting kids as evidence supporting your claims. I do give credence, however, to the article about them hitting infrastructure (which could come at civilian costs).

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The sad part is that no matter how flimsy the level of propaganda is, most readers will buy it wholesale. The pre-sales job of painting Putin as a reincarnation of Hitler and the Russians in general as an evil, backward people not worthy of western civilization is really all it takes.

The one time there was a big hit on an apartment building and the MSM made a big fuss out of it, it turns out it was a partially intercepted Russian KH missile that fell over it, and that's from Arestovich, a very-high ranking Ukrainian official source. He got a lot of heat for being candid here, he made that statement to emphacize Ukraine's capacity to intercept Russian missiles, though based on the amount of damage to the power grid, Ukraine's interception percentage has been quite low.

As to the alleged pilot story, Russian air force pilots aren't randomly bombing city blocks, Ukraine started out the war with a stockpile of well over 1,000 S-300s, Buks and other highly efficient (even if somewhat dated) Russian/Soviet anti-air missile systems. Russia is not going to throw expensive planes and pilots into well-defended cities in order to bomb apartment blocks with gravity or precision-guided munition, that's ridiculous. They would instead throw missiles at them, if that really were their goal. But they haven't, as this wasn't their goal.

They did target the power grid more recently, many months after the beginning of the war, but taking out Ukraine's power grid makes it a lot harder for them to conduct the war and is highly disruptive to their logistics. For instance, Ukraine which like all other European countries uses electric-powered locomotives is now reduced to using vintage museum piece steam locomotives, as Russia is constantly knocking out their rail power grid:

Steam loco sounds like a music, isn’t it? pic.twitter.com/HlXCR5TqUi

— Alexander Kamyshin (@AKamyshin) November 6, 2022

https://www.railtech.com/infrastructure/2022/11/11/the-plan-b-to-keep-trains-running-in-ukraine-diesel-and-steam-locomotives/?gdpr=deny

This being said, there is also a real wish from the Russian leadership to ratchet up the level of hardship on the Ukrainian population, especially in western Ukraine, in order to put political pressure on the Zelensky regime, exactly the same way economic sanctions against Russia have been put in place in an attempt to destabilize their government.

Ukraine's government has been relentlessly bombing Donbass civilians since 2014 in an attempt to quash the rebellion. I will refer you to Ukr. president Poroshenko's notorious 2015 speech where he boasted that "our children will go to school, while Donbass children will cower in basements..and that's how we will win the war" against the Donbass:

The wife of Mykhailo Podolyak adviser to the president of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has called on twitter for the genocide of Russians. For the killing of all of them. pic.twitter.com/XWQLEo0SYL

— Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil (@ivan_8848) January 14, 2023

Those kinds of statements are a bit more problematic knowing that they have the means and resources to build a nuclear arsenal.

Michael Bociurkiw works for the Atlantic Counsel and his posts seem one-sided.

Edit: also a self-professed [pompous] 'Humanitarian'.

Who funded / backed the Donbas citizens in 2015+??

And how did Ukraine distinguish bombing between their side (including Nazis, Azoz, etc) and the undesirables (those culturally Russian?)?

(My understanding is that Putin gave little support to Russians in the Donbas from 2014-2022, despite pleas for help.)

Who fought the Ukranian Nazis and Ukraine. Donbas citizens?

Meanwhile, over 500,000 deaths ignored in Ethiopias current civil war.

Ukraine soldiers who run away, will be punished.



Ukrainian female soldiers. Ya.

Short and sweet, maps and regional battles.

Germany claiming they can't provide retrofitted tanks to Ukraine until 2024; other countries balking? (They need Germanys approval.)

Is this their convoluted way of saying 'no', and not ratcheting up the war?

movielover said:

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Germany claiming they can't provide retrofitted tanks to Ukraine until 2024; other countries balking? (They need Germanys approval.)

Is this their convoluted way of saying 'no', and not ratcheting up the war?

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I think it would be pointless to give tanks to Ukraine. They aren't going to win that kind of war (large scale land war) against Russia.

AunBear89 said:

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movielover said:

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I'm no expert

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You should just stop here.

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Flame post with no meaningful information definitely applies to 90% of your posts. Flagged.

DiabloWags said:

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Russians still targeting civilians.

They destroy a 9 story residential apartment building killing 12, including a 15 year old girl.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/14/world/russia-ukraine-news

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I don't think we know enough to be able to claim with any degree of certainty that the Dnipro apartment that was destroyed by a Russian KH-22 was intentionally targeted but we do know that Russia has repeatedly acted with reckless disregard for civilian safety. The KH-22 cruise missile is notoriously inaccurate so Russia uses them full well knowing that misses are likely to occur. In fact, saying Russia acts with reckless disregard is a charitable interpretation.

Given all that has happened over the past 11 months and what will obviously continue to happens over the coming months, if not years, I find it remarkable that there are still people pretending that the pro-Russian side is defensible. I chalk it up mostly to oppositional thinking and the Fox News effect. That or our disingenuous bad faith posters who have no interest in portraying the situation in Ukraine through any sort of realistic lens. There are is at least one poster here who takes a more favorable view of Putler than even official Kremlin propaganda at this point. Be very weary of anyone who believes being "pro-Ukraine" renders one suspect. If you aren't pro-Ukraine, you are on the wrong side and it's not hard to figure that out.

Unit2Sucks said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Russians still targeting civilians.

They destroy a 9 story residential apartment building killing 12, including a 15 year old girl.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/14/world/russia-ukraine-news

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I don't think we know enough to be able to claim with any degree of certainty that the Dnipro apartment that was destroyed by a Russian KH-22 was intentionally targeted but we do know that Russia has repeatedly acted with reckless disregard for civilian safety. The KH-22 cruise missile is notoriously inaccurate so Russia uses them full well knowing that misses are likely to occur. In fact, saying Russia acts with reckless disregard is a charitable interpretation.

Given all that has happened over the past 11 months and what will obviously continue to happens over the coming months, if not years, I find it remarkable that there are still people pretending that the pro-Russian side is defensible. I chalk it up mostly to oppositional thinking and the Fox News effect. That or our disingenuous bad faith posters who have no interest in portraying the situation in Ukraine through any sort of realistic lens. There are is at least one poster here who takes a more favorable view of Putler than even official Kremlin propaganda at this point. Be very weary of anyone who believes being "pro-Ukraine" renders one suspect. If you aren't pro-Ukraine, you are on the wrong side and it's not hard to figure that out.

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I am pro-Ukraine. I also agree that Russia acts with reckless disregard for casualties.

oski003 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Russians still targeting civilians.

They destroy a 9 story residential apartment building killing 12, including a 15 year old girl.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/14/world/russia-ukraine-news

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I don't think we know enough to be able to claim with any degree of certainty that the Dnipro apartment that was destroyed by a Russian KH-22 was intentionally targeted but we do know that Russia has repeatedly acted with reckless disregard for civilian safety. The KH-22 cruise missile is notoriously inaccurate so Russia uses them full well knowing that misses are likely to occur. In fact, saying Russia acts with reckless disregard is a charitable interpretation.

Given all that has happened over the past 11 months and what will obviously continue to happens over the coming months, if not years, I find it remarkable that there are still people pretending that the pro-Russian side is defensible. I chalk it up mostly to oppositional thinking and the Fox News effect. That or our disingenuous bad faith posters who have no interest in portraying the situation in Ukraine through any sort of realistic lens. There are is at least one poster here who takes a more favorable view of Putler than even official Kremlin propaganda at this point. Be very weary of anyone who believes being "pro-Ukraine" renders one suspect. If you aren't pro-Ukraine, you are on the wrong side and it's not hard to figure that out.

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I am pro-Ukraine. I also agree that Russia acts with reckless disregard for casualties.

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The ratio of total civilian deaths to military in this war has been pretty low, of the order of 20%. Russia has not been killing Ukrainians indiscriminately, in fact they've taken higher military losses because they've factored in civilians in their current war.

In Iraq, Vietnam or Afghanistan the ratio of civilians killed to military deaths was orders of magnitude higher, well above 200%. The US might have killed more Iraqi civilians in one week in Iraq than the Russians have in one year in Ukraine. The USAF pulled a Dresden on cities like Raqa, Mosul and Falujah, carpet bombing entire cities with B-52s.

In Raqqa alone, a city of the size of Fremont or Santa Rosa, the US killed over 10,000 civilians. No comparison whatsoever with a lone Russian missile falling down on an apartment building due to AA.

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The battle to oust Islamic State from Raqqa followed the modern US military playbook. A massive aerial assault conducted with willing military powers (here, the UK and France); zero use of ground troops; and a reliance on proxy fighters at street level (here, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces militia). The bombardment was immense. For four months the coalition pounded the city into the ground with thousands of airstrikes (215 from the UK, says the MoD) and 30,000 US artillery rounds. Never mind that artillery is notoriously imprecise and should not be used in heavily populated areas (such use is "indiscriminate" in international legal parlance), the coalition fired artillery round after artillery round into residential areas for four solid months. In fact, as US forces themselves boasted, more artillery was fired into the streets, squares and homes of downtown Raqqa than has been fired in any conflict in the world since Vietnam.

As I saw for myself, the results are predictably apocalyptic; 80% of the city has been reduced to ruins. More than 11,000 buildings are uninhabitable and Raqqa is widely considered the most-destroyed city of modern times.

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/23/raqqa-ruins-bombing

The main point here, in this entire thread, which needs to be stated once again as it has been brought up once again from the wrong perspective is:

Being pro-Ukraine means being for bringing an end to this war.

Anyone who disagrees with this lacks basic realism. And unfortunately, most people have been rendered clueless by the emotionally-driven MSM narrative that ignores this basic reality:

There is no military solution for Ukraine.

The only question is, how long, and how many tens (if not hundreds) of thousands more Ukrainian bodies it is going to take for that to sink in. Russia is going to win the land war at its border, even if NATO escalates.

This is exactly the point that was driven by retired German Brigadier General Erich Vad earlier today, here is his interview translated from German:

https://www.theinteldrop.org/2023/01/16/erich-vad-what-are-the-war-aims/



excerpts:

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And what could be the consequences [of the delivery of German weapons to Ukraine]?

Is it the intention to achieve a willingness to negotiate with the delivery of the tanks? Do they want to reconquer the Donbass or the Crimea? Or does one want to defeat Russia altogether? There is no realistic end-state definition. And without an overall political and strategic concept, arms deliveries are pure militarism.

What does that mean?

We have a military stalemate that we cannot resolve militarily. That, by the way, is also the opinion of U.S. Chief of Staff Mark Milley. He has said that a military victory for Ukraine is not to be expected and that negotiations are the only possible way. Anything else means the senseless wear and tear of human lives.

General Milley's statement caused much anger in Washington and was also heavily criticized publicly.

He spoke an uncomfortable truth. A truth, by the way, that was almost not published in the German media. The interview with Milley by CNN did not appear anywhere bigger, while he is the Chief of Staff of our Western leading power.

What is being conducted in Ukraine is a war of attrition. And one with now close to 200,000 soldiers killed and wounded on both sides, with 50,000 civilian dead, and with millions of refugees. Milley has thus drawn a parallel with World War I that could not be more apt. In World War I, the so-called 'Blood Mill of Verdun' alone, designed as a battle of attrition, resulted in the deaths of nearly a million young French and Germans. They fell for nothing at that time. So the refusal of the warring parties to negotiate led to millions of additional deaths. This strategy did not work militarily then and will not do so now.

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