Scott Ritter Live, Q & A.
The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread
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Last: 27 min ago by tequila4kapp
Great article from the Guardian about Prigozhin and Wagner Group. Well researched and for anyone who isn't that familiar with the Wagner Group it's a really interesting read.
His rise to power is fascinating - he spent almost a decade in prison for a string of robberies, became a hot dog vendor before ultimately opening restaurants and becoming a caterer for upscale events (state dinner type stuff) as well as large municipal contracts with schools and the military. He leveraged that to create his private army, which has now become the most effective and well-trained fighting force Russia has - presumably because he is able to prevent corruption through extra-judicial murder and other heavy-handed tactics.
He's also a bit of a hero of the working class. Sounds like he could be the next President should Putin accidentally find himself on the wrong side of an open window. If that happens, will be good for the world if he returns his focus to feeding Russians and not sending them out to be slaughtered in a pointless war of aggression.
His rise to power is fascinating - he spent almost a decade in prison for a string of robberies, became a hot dog vendor before ultimately opening restaurants and becoming a caterer for upscale events (state dinner type stuff) as well as large municipal contracts with schools and the military. He leveraged that to create his private army, which has now become the most effective and well-trained fighting force Russia has - presumably because he is able to prevent corruption through extra-judicial murder and other heavy-handed tactics.
He's also a bit of a hero of the working class. Sounds like he could be the next President should Putin accidentally find himself on the wrong side of an open window. If that happens, will be good for the world if he returns his focus to feeding Russians and not sending them out to be slaughtered in a pointless war of aggression.
Quote:
There is something symbolic in Prigozhin, who spent his 20s in prison, now paving the way for the release and rehabilitation of thousands of prisoners, including those convicted of the most violent crimes.
According to Ivan Krastev, a political scientist, it is part of an attempt to "redefine the Russian nation" amid the new wartime atmosphere. "Prisoners are welcomed in the nation, while all those anti-war cosmopolitan elites, including some of Putin's oligarchs, are not," Krastev said.
In recent weeks, Prigozhin has frequently released statements attacking supposed traitors in the elite who holiday abroad and dream of Russia losing the war. There are many in Putin's administration who want to "fall on their knees before Uncle Sam", Prigozhin claimed last week.
Prigozhin has in effect become "the leader of anti-elite Putinism", said Krastev, remaining loyal to the tsar while attacking all those around him.
Many of those who have known Prigozhin say that for years he has seen himself as a defender of the little guy taking on the elites, an incongruous characterisation given the riches he has acquired for himself and his family along the way, but one he would often employ.
"He presents himself as the defender of the masses, the lower classes. That is his niche," said Gabidullin.
New Colonel Douglass McGregor interview, some might say significant developments.
1. Ukrainian secret police allegedly assassinated a Ukranian peace negotiator from last March. (CDM claims the talks were a ruse to give the Ukranian army more time.)
2. There has been a mood change in Washington DC - many now realize Ukraine can't beat Russia; but egos having problems swallowing that reality.
3. Previously noted Defense Minister resignation (corruption).
4. Ukranian Public Affairs Durector resigns and says he doubts Ukraine can win.
5. US goading Germany to deliver tanks, which CDM thinks can be considered acts of war. So Germany will only provide the same number of tanks the Yanks provide (10 each).
6. Quick review of the compromised American M1 Abrams tank (jet engine, gas guzzler). US worried about possibly embarrassing tank performance.
7. Germany's hesitation is bc they realize we can't win our proxy war. (Including propaganda.)
8. America and EU don't have the surge capacity to fight a major war. Russia does. (Factories running 24 / 7.)
9. Historians telling CDM about parallels to FDR before WWII, baiting the Japanese. Who is behind Biden?
10. Where does this lead? Ukraine has said they can't stand an onslaught.
11. FM Lavrov: this is war, not hybrid war.
12. CDM advocates immediate talks with no preconditions; our egos won't allow it.
13. Lopsided artillery power imbalance favors Russia, including thermobaric weapons. Artillery imbalance of 60,000 vs 6,000 per day. This tenfold difference in artillery explains the difference in KIA and MIA.
14. Russia can't trust us. (Lavrov detailed how the West is ginning this up.)
15. DM foresees a bigger Russian offensive before mid February.
P.S. Colonel McGregor has also received death threats.
1. Ukrainian secret police allegedly assassinated a Ukranian peace negotiator from last March. (CDM claims the talks were a ruse to give the Ukranian army more time.)
2. There has been a mood change in Washington DC - many now realize Ukraine can't beat Russia; but egos having problems swallowing that reality.
3. Previously noted Defense Minister resignation (corruption).
4. Ukranian Public Affairs Durector resigns and says he doubts Ukraine can win.
5. US goading Germany to deliver tanks, which CDM thinks can be considered acts of war. So Germany will only provide the same number of tanks the Yanks provide (10 each).
6. Quick review of the compromised American M1 Abrams tank (jet engine, gas guzzler). US worried about possibly embarrassing tank performance.
7. Germany's hesitation is bc they realize we can't win our proxy war. (Including propaganda.)
8. America and EU don't have the surge capacity to fight a major war. Russia does. (Factories running 24 / 7.)
9. Historians telling CDM about parallels to FDR before WWII, baiting the Japanese. Who is behind Biden?
10. Where does this lead? Ukraine has said they can't stand an onslaught.
11. FM Lavrov: this is war, not hybrid war.
12. CDM advocates immediate talks with no preconditions; our egos won't allow it.
13. Lopsided artillery power imbalance favors Russia, including thermobaric weapons. Artillery imbalance of 60,000 vs 6,000 per day. This tenfold difference in artillery explains the difference in KIA and MIA.
14. Russia can't trust us. (Lavrov detailed how the West is ginning this up.)
15. DM foresees a bigger Russian offensive before mid February.
P.S. Colonel McGregor has also received death threats.
McGregor has been wrong about the war since day one. He's part of the Putin Wing of the GOP, has made anti-semitic comments and claimed DURING THE FIRST WEEK that Russia was a few days from winning the war.
Like other pro-Putin propagandists, he is an unreliable narrator and shouldn't be trusted. I understand why Putin apologists and people like Tucker Carlson enjoying his views, but there is no reason to continue to post his ramblings as if anyone else cares or will listen to him tell us what his dreams are for this war.
Don't get me wrong, I expect McGregor's propaganda to continue to feature prominently amongst the Russian cheerleaders in this thread, but just know that you aren't fooling anyone.
Here's just a partial list of his past whoppers.
3 days into the war:
Here's an example of his anti-semitism from 2021:
Like other pro-Putin propagandists, he is an unreliable narrator and shouldn't be trusted. I understand why Putin apologists and people like Tucker Carlson enjoying his views, but there is no reason to continue to post his ramblings as if anyone else cares or will listen to him tell us what his dreams are for this war.
Don't get me wrong, I expect McGregor's propaganda to continue to feature prominently amongst the Russian cheerleaders in this thread, but just know that you aren't fooling anyone.
Here's just a partial list of his past whoppers.
3 days into the war:
5 days into the war:Quote:
"The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them."
On Tucker Carlson in March:Quote:
"The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle," he said. "They've now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over."
Quote:
"The war is really over for the Ukrainians," Macgregor said. "They have been grounded to bits. There's no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media. So the real question for us at this stage is, if there is an agreement, Tucker, are we going to live with the Russian people and their government? Or are we going to continue to pursue this sort of regime change dressed up as Ukrainian war?"
Here's an example of his anti-semitism from 2021:
Quote:
"We have a huge problem with a class of so-called elites, the people who are wealthy, very wealthy in many cases and they are, as the Russians used to call certain individuals many, many years ago, rootless cosmopolitans," he told the Serbian American Voters Alliance in an October 2021 speech uncovered by Matt Gertz at MediaMatters.
For those understandably unfamiliar with this terminology, "rootless cosmopolitans" is an anti-Semitic euphemism for Jews that was popularized under Stalin in the Soviet Union. Adolf Hitler also repeatedly referred to Jews as disloyal cosmopolitans, lamenting in his manifesto Mein Kampf that "it is no longer princes or their courtesans who contend and bargain about state frontiers, but the inexorable cosmopolitan Jew who is fighting for his own dominion over the nations." In other words, there is exactly one type of person who uses this sort of language in everyday conversation.
In case his audience missed the point, though, Macgregor added: "They live above all of this, they have no connection to the country. There is nothing there that holds them in place, and they are largely responsible, in my judgment, for the condition that we are in today."
So you're against two comments he made, but support Ukrainian Nazis? You seem to coddle them.
movielover said:
New Colonel Douglass McGregor interview, some might say significant developments.
1. Ukrainian secret police allegedly assassinated a Ukranian peace negotiator from last March. (CDM claims the talks were a ruse to give the Ukranian army more time.)
2. There has been a mood change in Washington DC - many now realize Ukraine can't beat Russia; but egos having problems swallowing that reality.
3. Previously noted Defense Minister resignation (corruption).
4. Ukranian Public Affairs Durector resigns and says he doubts Ukraine can win.
5. US goading Germany to deliver tanks, which CDM thinks can be considered acts of war. So Germany will only provide the same number of tanks the Yanks provide (10 each).
6. Quick review of the compromised American M1 Abrams tank (jet engine, gas guzzler). US worried about possibly embarrassing tank performance.
7. Germany's hesitation is bc they realize we can't win our proxy war. (Including propaganda.)
8. America and EU don't have the surge capacity to fight a major war. Russia does. (Factories running 24 / 7.)
9. Historians telling CDM about parallels to FDR before WWII, baiting the Japanese. Who is behind Biden?
10. Where does this lead? Ukraine has said they can't stand an onslaught.
11. FM Lavrov: this is war, not hybrid war.
12. CDM advocates immediate talks with no preconditions; our egos won't allow it.
13. Lopsided artillery power imbalance favors Russia, including thermobaric weapons. Artillery imbalance of 60,000 vs 6,000 per day. This tenfold difference in artillery explains the difference in KIA and MIA.
14. Russia can't trust us. (Lavrov detailed how the West is ginning this up.)
15. DM foresees a bigger Russian offensive before mid February.
-Russia is now producing around 10,000 shells/day, factories running 24/7. Apparently they got some advanced manufacturing equipment and modern production processes from China. China also left a massive amount of ammunition when they participated in the joint military maneuvers near Vladivostock last September, using the joint military exercise as a cover.
-The "Ukrainian Public Affairs Director" is Oleksey Arestovich, who was a longtime associate of Zelensky and his chief adviser and spin doctor, sort of like what Kissinger was to Nixon. He is a very bright young analyst, though a bit on the dark side. He actually called this war and its date down to the year back in 2019.
Arestovich has made a sharp U-turn from the lines he used to push before, stating this week that the Zelensky government's persecution of Orthodox Christians and Ukrainian Russophones has been highly counterproductive and is leading to the unravelling of the country. He has also stated that Ukraine cannot win this war. Needless to say, his life is currently in danger.
-Ukraine has now banned all public officials from travelling abroad, they're now worried of public figures defecting, but also as a PR measure to uphold the country's morale, as a lot of well-off public servants have been taking vacations in Europe while their country is burning, like this Ukrainian armed forces official's recent new years bash in Paris:
https://expatguideturkey.com/armed-forces-spokespersons-night-club-crisis/
-Ukrainian Istanbul delegation negotiator Denis Kireev was assassinated by a faction of the Ukrainian intelligence apparatus, apparently not the SBU (main security force) but a smaller hardcore military intelligence agency that is completely opposed to any settlement with Russia. The death of the interior minister and his associates in the Super Puma helicopter allegedly shot down by a Stinger might have been a similar insider score-settling incident.
Unit2Sucks said:
McGregor has been wrong about the war since day one. He's part of the Putin Wing of the GOP, has made anti-semitic comments and claimed DURING THE FIRST WEEK that Russia was a few days from winning the war.
Like other pro-Putin propagandists, he is an unreliable narrator and shouldn't be trusted. I understand why Putin apologists and people like Tucker Carlson enjoying his views, but there is no reason to continue to post his ramblings as if anyone else cares or will listen to him tell us what his dreams are for this war.
Don't get me wrong, I expect McGregor's propaganda to continue to feature prominently amongst the Russian cheerleaders in this thread, but just know that you aren't fooling anyone.
Here's just a partial list of his past whoppers.
3 days into the war:5 days into the war:Quote:
"The battle in eastern Ukraine is really almost over, all of the Ukrainian troops there have been largely surrounded and cut off. You have a concentration down in the Southeast of 30 or 40,000 of them, and if they don't surrender in the next 24 hours, I suspect Russia will ultimately annihilate them."On Tucker Carlson in March:Quote:
"The first five days Russian forces I think frankly were too gentle," he said. "They've now corrected that. So, I would say another 10 days this should be completely over."Quote:
"The war is really over for the Ukrainians," Macgregor said. "They have been grounded to bits. There's no question about that despite what we report on our mainstream media. So the real question for us at this stage is, if there is an agreement, Tucker, are we going to live with the Russian people and their government? Or are we going to continue to pursue this sort of regime change dressed up as Ukrainian war?"
Here's an example of his anti-semitism from 2021:Quote:
"We have a huge problem with a class of so-called elites, the people who are wealthy, very wealthy in many cases and they are, as the Russians used to call certain individuals many, many years ago, rootless cosmopolitans," he told the Serbian American Voters Alliance in an October 2021 speech uncovered by Matt Gertz at MediaMatters.
For those understandably unfamiliar with this terminology, "rootless cosmopolitans" is an anti-Semitic euphemism for Jews that was popularized under Stalin in the Soviet Union. Adolf Hitler also repeatedly referred to Jews as disloyal cosmopolitans, lamenting in his manifesto Mein Kampf that "it is no longer princes or their courtesans who contend and bargain about state frontiers, but the inexorable cosmopolitan Jew who is fighting for his own dominion over the nations." In other words, there is exactly one type of person who uses this sort of language in everyday conversation.
In case his audience missed the point, though, Macgregor added: "They live above all of this, they have no connection to the country. There is nothing there that holds them in place, and they are largely responsible, in my judgment, for the condition that we are in today."
"Rootless cosmopolitans" is not an antisemitic slur, it applies to a class of globalist one percenters who identify much more with their international multimillionaire brethren than their own countrymen. People like Emmanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak, justin Trudeau or Ted Turner. These people are indeed in power across much of the West, and they're not there to represent the interests of the average citizen, they are there to push the interests of the oligarchs who back them.
"30 percent of Ukraine is unemployed and 70 percent lives below the poverty line."
Neither Europeans, nor Ukrainians want this war.
Neither Europeans, nor Ukrainians want this war.
Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the Russian leaders still want the war, so they have no choice.movielover said:
"30 percent of Ukraine is unemployed and 70 percent lives below the poverty line."
Neither Europeans, nor Ukrainians want this war.
Yup. Boris Johnson (NATO / USA) told Zelensky to back out of peace talks in Istanbul.
The Guardian
"Pentagon chief's Russia remarks show shift in US's declared aims in Ukraine
By Julian Borger, April 25, 2022
"Defense secretary Lloyd Austin said he 'wants to see Russia weakened' a sign Washington now defines its goals differently"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/russia-weakedend-lloyd-austin-ukraine
The Guardian
"Pentagon chief's Russia remarks show shift in US's declared aims in Ukraine
By Julian Borger, April 25, 2022
"Defense secretary Lloyd Austin said he 'wants to see Russia weakened' a sign Washington now defines its goals differently"
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/russia-weakedend-lloyd-austin-ukraine
Eastern Oregon Bear said:Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the Russian leaders still want the war, so they have no choice.movielover said:
"30 percent of Ukraine is unemployed and 70 percent lives below the poverty line."
Neither Europeans, nor Ukrainians want this war.
And if you are Ukrainian and want anything other than the war, you will be summarily executed mafia-style, like this member of the official negotiation delegation to the Istanbul peace talks:
Most of the Ukrainians today being dragged into the front don't want this war, like this middle-aged man from Odessa being forcefully conscripted at gunpoint:
https://t.me/the_Right_People/12875
Washington Times: Ukraine corruption scandal ousts top officials amid war
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) "Several senior Ukrainian officials, including five front-line governors, lost their jobs Tuesday in a corruption scandal plaguing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government as it grapples with the nearly 11-month-old Russian invasion....
"Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 on an anti-establishment and anti-corruption platform in a country long gripped by graft, and the new allegations come as Western allies are channeling billions of dollars to help Kyiv fight against Moscow...."
"In all, four deputy ministers and five governors of provinces on the war's front line were set to leave their posts, the country's cabinet secretary said on the Telegram messaging app...."
"The departures thinned government ranks already diminished by the deaths of Ukraine's interior minister, who oversaw Ukraine's police and emergency services, and others in the ministry's leadership in a helicopter crash last week...."
"Transparency International, in its 2021 report on worldwide corruption, ranked Ukraine 122 out of 180 countries, with 180 representing the most corrupt. Russia ranked 136...."
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jan/24/ukraine-corruption-scandal-ousts-top-officials-ami/
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) "Several senior Ukrainian officials, including five front-line governors, lost their jobs Tuesday in a corruption scandal plaguing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's government as it grapples with the nearly 11-month-old Russian invasion....
"Zelenskyy was elected in 2019 on an anti-establishment and anti-corruption platform in a country long gripped by graft, and the new allegations come as Western allies are channeling billions of dollars to help Kyiv fight against Moscow...."
"In all, four deputy ministers and five governors of provinces on the war's front line were set to leave their posts, the country's cabinet secretary said on the Telegram messaging app...."
"The departures thinned government ranks already diminished by the deaths of Ukraine's interior minister, who oversaw Ukraine's police and emergency services, and others in the ministry's leadership in a helicopter crash last week...."
"Transparency International, in its 2021 report on worldwide corruption, ranked Ukraine 122 out of 180 countries, with 180 representing the most corrupt. Russia ranked 136...."
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jan/24/ukraine-corruption-scandal-ousts-top-officials-ami/
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
Ukraine neutrality (like Switzerland); and
"The biggest sticking point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region."
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
Besides a full absolute withdrawal with no Russian military goals achieved despite winning (as evidenced by possession, though contested, of Eastern Ukraine), what does Ukraine want?
Not pro Russian, pro peace talks.
Peace talks were scheduled in Istanbul early on. Zelensky ran on a no-war platform, Ukranians wanted no war. Americans vwant no war. But Boris Johnson (NATO / USA) wanted war to 'weaken' Russia.
Peace talks were scheduled in Istanbul early on. Zelensky ran on a no-war platform, Ukranians wanted no war. Americans vwant no war. But Boris Johnson (NATO / USA) wanted war to 'weaken' Russia.
Western galaxy brains can clutch their pearls as much as they like but Lavrov makes a valid points. For instance, which part of the “rules-based world order” allowed Victoria Nuland to overthrow the democratically elected leader of Ukraine and replace him with her own pick? https://t.co/I9GNRsZAzd
— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) January 25, 2023
Ukraine Predicts Attacks on Major Russian Cities
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-predicts-attacks-on-major-russian-cities
Putin's allies call for Berlin to be NUKED after Germany's 'game-changing' decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine | The US Sun
https://www.the-sun.com/news/7215131/germany-crucial-leopard-tanks-ukraine/
https://www.thedailybeast.com/ukraine-predicts-attacks-on-major-russian-cities
Putin's allies call for Berlin to be NUKED after Germany's 'game-changing' decision to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine | The US Sun
https://www.the-sun.com/news/7215131/germany-crucial-leopard-tanks-ukraine/
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
The world unravels under a weak American President.
See Syria / Crimea under Obama.
See Syria / Crimea under Obama.
Sky News: Ukraine war: Zelenskyy 'not interested' in meeting 'nobody' Putin for peace talks
dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
On the bold part: that was definitely not the consensus, the general public and even some policy makers are still under the belief that Ukraine can win this war, take back the Donbass, reconquer Crimea and push Russia back to its pre-2014 borders, and that they're just a few Javelins/HIMARS/NASAMS/Leopards/(insert "gamechanger" wonder weapon of the day here) away from kicking Russia's ass.
In reality, there is no military solution for Ukraine, from their perspective. Russia has complete escalatory dominance, it is also an existential issue for Russia, as Mearsheimer and other leading analysts have repeatedly affirmed, and they're never going to back down, only keep escalating. All that this war does is just add to the body count and destruction, with Ukraine bearing most of the pain.
A point I need to reiterate, a point that's starting to hit home, is that today most Ukrainians don't want to fight. Ukraine starting to have difficulty with its domestic conscription, the pool of men who want to fight being nearly exhausted. Ukraine is going to draft its expat and refugee population in Poland, with the full cooperation of Polish authorities, who will probably round off young Ukrainian expats with nearly as much zeal as the recruitment brigades have been doing in Ukraine. These scenes of middle-aged dads being forcibly removed from their homes and families are all over the net:
Mobilization in the Ukrainian city of Cherkassy.
— UkraineMaps (@MapsUkraine) January 26, 2023
Completely voluntary and with love for Ukraine!!!! pic.twitter.com/zvqFCubOyg
On a personal level, there is a change in attitude with my Ukrainian sister in law, likely prompted by the prospects of her son being drafted soon. Her son has already lost at least one former classmate from Dnipro in this war. Most Ukrainians today do not want to fight, the great majority of those that did are already dead or injured, or are mobilized domestically to keep a lid on the popuation, especially in potentially rebellious regions like the south, east and southwestern Transcarpathian region, which is mostly ethnic Hungarian/Rusyn, and which has borne an extremely heavy share of Ukrainian casualties.
Quote:
Donbass Devushka
Transcarpathian Hungarians are being mobilized into the Ukrainian army in a "forced manner", many of them die, said Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations Peter Szijjarto.
He stressed that this is another reason why Hungary insists on the need to start peace talks. Hungarian media previously reported that the largest mobilization since the beginning of the conflict was being carried out in Transcarpathia, which is associated with heavy losses of the Transcarpathian 128th mountain assault brigade near Soledar. The Metropol publication reported that hundreds of meters from the border with Hungary, the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers are stored in a refrigerated car for weeks, the deaths of which are not reported to relatives.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/42400Quote:
Hungarian media previously reported that the largest mobilization since the beginning of the conflict was being carried out in Transcarpathia, which is associated with heavy losses of the Transcarpathian 128th mountain assault brigade near Soledar.
Also, the Ripost publication reported that the SBU forbids the relatives of the dead soldiers from Transcarpathia to talk on social networks about their death.
"One poor mother did not receive any news about her child for several weeks, so she asked for help on FB, if anyone knew anything about him <...> military officers in plain clothes came to her and forced her to delete the post, stating that if there is something to report, the military will notify, "RIA Novosti quotes one of them.
The Metropol publication reported that hundreds of meters from the border with Hungary, the bodies of Ukrainian soldiers are stored in refrigerated trucks for weeks, the deaths of which are not reported to relatives.
Clips this AM claim Russia now sending missiles to Odessa, and hitting the energy grid around Kiev.
Pro Ukraine outlets ignore the 9 crooks who resigned.
Interestingly, one outlet offered that the new delivery of American tanks will be stripped of 'secret' components. Not very war ready. Germany may take 2-3 months to deliver tanks. No urgency, or giving them older models.
Pro Ukraine outlets ignore the 9 crooks who resigned.
Interestingly, one outlet offered that the new delivery of American tanks will be stripped of 'secret' components. Not very war ready. Germany may take 2-3 months to deliver tanks. No urgency, or giving them older models.
movielover said:
Clips this AM claim Russia now sending missiles to Odessa, and hitting the energy grid around Kiev.
Pro Ukraine outlets ignore the 9 crooks who resigned.
Interestingly, one outlet offered that the new delivery of American tanks will be stripped of 'secret' components. Not very war ready. Germany may take 2-3 months to deliver tanks. No urgency, or giving them older models.
The sending US tanks is just a symbolic measure to support the decision to send German tanks. They aren't coming for a long time.
oski003 said:dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
Ukraine neutrality (like Switzerland); and
"The biggest sticking point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region."
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
Besides a full absolute withdrawal with no Russian military goals achieved despite winning (as evidenced by possession, though contested, of Eastern Ukraine), what does Ukraine want?
This was not a rhetorical question. What will Ukraine settle for outside of complete victory?
Saw this tweet about dummy Mcgregor.
Same account has a few other great examples of pro-Putin shills with dumb takes.
— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 25, 2023
Same account has a few other great examples of pro-Putin shills with dumb takes.
1 year anniversary pic.twitter.com/MNV0rQ5Yvv
— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 24, 2023
— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 14, 2023
Colonel McGregor is pretty consistent in his message. He foresees a methodical advance of attrition where he claims a 10 to 1 artillery difference between Russia and Ukraine / NATO. This imbalance allegedly responsible for the allegedly high attrition rate for Ukraine.
He believes they'll move methodically over a 6-week to 2-month period, grinding down the Ukranian army. There will be no lightning move to Kiev, no Patton march.
He believes Putin will be happy with a pro-Russia Eastern Ukraine (in whatever form), a neutral Ukraine, and a pro-Russian leader in Kiev. If not #3, Russia will continually have to fight this civil war.
He believes the west can't stomach defeat, and this will make NATO look horrible. Nobody wants this war.
He believes they'll move methodically over a 6-week to 2-month period, grinding down the Ukranian army. There will be no lightning move to Kiev, no Patton march.
He believes Putin will be happy with a pro-Russia Eastern Ukraine (in whatever form), a neutral Ukraine, and a pro-Russian leader in Kiev. If not #3, Russia will continually have to fight this civil war.
He believes the west can't stomach defeat, and this will make NATO look horrible. Nobody wants this war.
Unit2Sucks said:
Saw this tweet about dummy Mcgregor.— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 25, 2023
Same account has a few other great examples of pro-Putin shills with dumb takes.1 year anniversary pic.twitter.com/MNV0rQ5Yvv
— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 24, 2023— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 14, 2023
Breaking news! Ho Chi Minh tweets about Berkeley protests of the Vietnam War in an effort to hurt the US. efforts in Vietnam. Usucks sees this as solid evidence that these protestors are traitors, funded by Ho Chi Minh. He sees no error in this objective, completely unbiased logic.
oski003 said:
movieloverThe sending US tanks is just a symbolic measure to support the decision to send German tanks. They aren't coming for a long time.
Not sure when the Leopards will be coming in either, the ones from Germany will have to be refurbished, crews have to be trained, maintenance logistics set up etc, so probably Spring or Summer, and perhaps 100 to 200 tanks total over the year. To put this in perspective, Ukraine has already lost over 2,500 tanks in the last 11 months, so the Leopards 2 will amount to about an extra month's worth of tanks.
As well, both the Leopard and M1A1 are much heavier than the Russian tanks, so more poorly suited for use in muddy conditions, which prevail till May.
More footage of forced conscriptions around Ukraine emerging:
The story: This man in Odessa was walking with his wife and they grabbed him for mobilization.
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) January 25, 2023
Warning: I can not confirm the story beyond this visuals, but it fits the recent videos. https://t.co/FdYh6CkL28 pic.twitter.com/57xW1WyJYA
Unit2Sucks said:
Saw this tweet about dummy Mcgregor.— Russia Apologists Posting Their Ls (@russophileLs) January 25, 2023
British Colonel Richard Kemp agrees with Colonel Douglas MacGregor:
Former British Army Commander Richard Kemp says the Russian forces are "hammering the hell out of Ukrainians" and they will eventually "prevail in eastern Ukraine."pic.twitter.com/rGV8TZhs9y
— Hassan Mafi (@thatdayin1992) January 26, 2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Kemp
oski003 said:oski003 said:dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
Ukraine neutrality (like Switzerland); and
"The biggest sticking point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region."
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
Besides a full absolute withdrawal with no Russian military goals achieved despite winning (as evidenced by possession, though contested, of Eastern Ukraine), what does Ukraine want?
This was not a rhetorical question. What will Ukraine settle for outside of complete victory?
I believe that Ukraine will only settle for Russians out of their country, but I am not Ukrainian so I don't know.
I can tell you that if Mexico invaded the Southwest US claiming it was historically their territory and the majority of residents speak Spanish and a large minority identify culturally as Mexican MY response would be to keep fighting until the Mexicans were tossed back over the Rio Grande.
In fact, this happened during the Mexican-American War.
Are Ukrainians less fervent in their opposition to Russia? I don't know.
dimitrig said:oski003 said:oski003 said:dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
Ukraine neutrality (like Switzerland); and
"The biggest sticking point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region."
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
Besides a full absolute withdrawal with no Russian military goals achieved despite winning (as evidenced by possession, though contested, of Eastern Ukraine), what does Ukraine want?
This was not a rhetorical question. What will Ukraine settle for outside of complete victory?
I believe that Ukraine will only settle for Russians out of their country, but I am not Ukrainian so I don't know.
I can tell you that if Mexico invaded the Southwest US claiming it was historically their territory and the majority of residents speak Spanish and a large minority identify culturally as Mexican MY response would be to keep fighting until the Mexicans were tossed back over the Rio Grande.
In fact, this happened during the Mexican-American War.
Are Ukrainians less fervent in their opposition to Russia? I don't know.
This is more like the United States getting land from Mexico than Mexico getting land from the United States. The U.S. kept the Southwest.
Let's do your scenario but flip the power dynamic. Mexico has the U.S. military and has taken the southwest. Should the U.S. (with the equivalent of the Mexican army) fight until "the Mexicans were tossed over the Rio Grande?"
dimitrig said:
Are Ukrainians less fervent in their opposition to Russia? I don't know.
So far the answer seems to be no.
Victoria Nuland must have been very convincing.
dimitrig said:oski003 said:oski003 said:dimitrig said:Cal88 said:
Pro-NATO journalist: ' All is not well for Ukraine - indications grow it is losing the war'
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
Excerpts:
The delivery of tanks, advanced air defense systems and potentially long-range ground-launched bombs may be a response to Ukraine's dire requests, but it also brings with it a new load of problems.
These hastily and urgently provided supplies indicate that all is not well in Kiev and that it is closer than ever to losing the war with Russia. These are not one-to-one replacements for equipment lost: Most of the delivered supplies aim to shift the fortunes of the war in favor of Ukraine.
At least one of the projected weapons, a 100-mile ground-launched long-range bomb known as ATACMS, also would shift the war from Ukrainian to Russian territory.
There is little doubt that putting this sort of weapon in Ukrainian hands will result in a bigger war in Europe. Russia will try to attack the transit centers for these supplies, most likely Poland, although retaliation could also conceivably include attacks on railroads and roadways in Germany.
...Ukraine's forces are falling back in the Donbas region and, if the retreat continues, will soon lose the strategic town of Bakhmut. The Russian wave, in the Pentagon's view, is a sure thing and the US has asked Ukraine to abandon the area.
However, Ukraine's military and political leaders can't pull back because doing so would open the center of the country to the Russian army. That, in turn, could light off a long-suppressed clamor for political change in Ukraine with unknown and unknowable consequences.
President Volodymyr Zelensky knows full well he has arrested most of his political opponents and silenced the media he dislikes, including some instances where his opponents have allegedly been liquidated by Ukraine's secret police, the SBU.
But that won't protect him or his colleagues if people in Kiev start to understand that Ukrainian defenses are folding.
Despite claims to be a democracy, Ukraine is actually an authoritarian country that has blocked out real news and throttled any opposition. But because of social media, the messages will get through anyway and Zelensky and his team have a lot to fear.
It appears the US is placing its hope of reversing the battlefield situation on the new armor systems being sent to Ukraine. The US has put huge pressure on Germany to deliver its creaky Leopard II tanks and to allow Poland to ship the Leopards it has.
No one can say how effective Leopard tanks will be on the modern battlefield. In December 2016, numerous Leopard 2s were destroyed in fighting over the ISIS-held Al-Bab area near Aleppo, Syria. Ten Leopards were destroyed including five by anti-tank missiles (Russian origin), two by IEDs, and one by rocket fire.
The Russian wire-guided anti-tank missiles, 9k115 Metis and 9M113 Konkurs, are vintage 1970s weapons. This leads to the suspicion that the Leopards won't turn out to be any more effective than the Russian-origin armor Ukraine already has, which could help explain why Poland is eager to unload them.
The Biden administration, at least on the surface, appears to have little concern about the threat of a widening war or the possibility that Ukraine might be defeated by Russia. In fact, the administration and its allies keep claiming they are close to driving the Russians out of Ukraine the latest such claim having come from Ukraine war supporter Boris Johnson.
If this claim were true, then all of the additional weapons slated for delivery to Ukraine would not be such an urgent need.
One of the problems is that war news is generated primarily by Ukrainian propaganda, which is endlessly parrotted in the Western media. Anytime there is contradictory information for example, mention of Ukraine's high casualties Kiev pushes back so hard that Western leaders go silent.
Even so, accurate information does periodically leak. The latest example is a German report citing Berlin's BND foreign intelligence service saying that Ukrainian casualties are very high in the Bakhmut area, estimated in the hundreds per day.
https://asiatimes.com/2023/01/all-is-not-well-for-ukraine/
As weak as Russia is, Ukraine cannot win a land war against them. That is to no one's surprise.
What needs to be talked about is what Russia's goal is. If it is to destroy the standing Ukrainian military I have no doubt they can do so if they are willing to pay the price.
Then what?
I haven't heard anyone on the Russian side state what exactly they are wanting Ukraine to do other than surrender and become a Russian state, which is likely never going to happen.
Ukraine neutrality (like Switzerland); and
"The biggest sticking point remains Russia's demand that Ukraine recognise its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the independence of two separatist statelets in the eastern Donbas border region."
https://www.ft.com/content/7b341e46-d375-4817-be67-802b7fa77ef1
Besides a full absolute withdrawal with no Russian military goals achieved despite winning (as evidenced by possession, though contested, of Eastern Ukraine), what does Ukraine want?
This was not a rhetorical question. What will Ukraine settle for outside of complete victory?
I believe that Ukraine will only settle for Russians out of their country, but I am not Ukrainian so I don't know.
I can tell you that if Mexico invaded the Southwest US claiming it was historically their territory and the majority of residents speak Spanish and a large minority identify culturally as Mexican MY response would be to keep fighting until the Mexicans were tossed back over the Rio Grande.
In fact, this happened during the Mexican-American War.
Are Ukrainians less fervent in their opposition to Russia? I don't know.
Would that still be your response if Mexico had a military that was 4-5 times more powerful than ours and your son was about to be drafted? Because that might be a better analogy.
I am pro-Ukraine here, but at some point, if they decide to negotiate a peace, I could hardly blame them. Ideally, Russia will decide to quit first, but I'm not sure that's gonna happen.
Peace talks were scheduled very early after the soft invasion. Boris Johnson (NATO / USA) nixed peace talks. Joe Biden's stance seemed to change as Lloyd Austin said our goal was to "weaken" Russia.
The result is over 155,000 dead Ukranians. Russian deaths are estimated anywhere between 20,000 and 100,000.
The logic seems to be with an unending civil war and NATO threats, Russia has no incentive to stop.
The result is over 155,000 dead Ukranians. Russian deaths are estimated anywhere between 20,000 and 100,000.
The logic seems to be with an unending civil war and NATO threats, Russia has no incentive to stop.
There are a couple of questionable assumptions that are being made here. First is the assumption that all wars end with a peace treaty. That hasn't been true for a while. Here's a 10-year old primer but the dynamics and trends haven't changed.
Second is the assumption that Ukraine believes Russia will adhere to any treaty that would be negotiated and signed. Russia violated the 1994 Budapest agreement and never had any intention of adhering to the Minsk agreements (which, as I've stated previously in this thread, Russia claims not to be a party to or be bound by). Russia installed a puppet corrupt government led by Yanukovytch (which disingenuous Russian propagandists and shills like to say was "democratically elected" and which famously involved the oligarch's best friend - Paul Manafort).
I'm sure Russia would love to lick its wounds and agree to some sort of peace deal but that wouldn't give Ukraine any comfort, it would just serve as a respite until Putin (assuming he is then in power) sees an opportunity to strike again. Ultimately Putin and the current leadership of Russia don't believe Ukraine has a right to exist as a sovereign nation and unless something very significant changes they will continue to take steps to eliminate that sovereignty whether by force or by installation of a puppet government - they seem to be attracted to both options depending on whichever they think is easiest.
Second is the assumption that Ukraine believes Russia will adhere to any treaty that would be negotiated and signed. Russia violated the 1994 Budapest agreement and never had any intention of adhering to the Minsk agreements (which, as I've stated previously in this thread, Russia claims not to be a party to or be bound by). Russia installed a puppet corrupt government led by Yanukovytch (which disingenuous Russian propagandists and shills like to say was "democratically elected" and which famously involved the oligarch's best friend - Paul Manafort).
I'm sure Russia would love to lick its wounds and agree to some sort of peace deal but that wouldn't give Ukraine any comfort, it would just serve as a respite until Putin (assuming he is then in power) sees an opportunity to strike again. Ultimately Putin and the current leadership of Russia don't believe Ukraine has a right to exist as a sovereign nation and unless something very significant changes they will continue to take steps to eliminate that sovereignty whether by force or by installation of a puppet government - they seem to be attracted to both options depending on whichever they think is easiest.
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