Ursine said:

---

As it becomes undeniable Ukraine is losing, @washingtonpost editorial board calls for major escalation of war. Not yet, but soon they’ll call for NATO troops openly in Ukraine. Risk of nuclear war is not negligible. They’ll never stop with this madness https://t.co/9AABH17qHC pic.twitter.com/2KtfSOqLP5

— Ali Abunimah (@AliAbunimah) February 19, 2023

---

In the recent excellent HistoryLegends video, the host posts a list of alleged NATO ammunitions (depleted) stockpiles, and the typical production output. The ammo available and production timelines, if true, are horrendous and unmanageable.

BigC, bearister, and Unit2 leave out all those nice chumy Nazi fellows on the Ukrainian side.

Roos-kies fall out of windows = very bad

Ukrainian peace officials assassinated, leaders threatened, extremists run amoke = crickets

🇳🇴❌🪖🇺🇦🇷🇺Norway 's Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre:

"We have reached the limit of arms supplies to Ukraine. From now on, we will pay full attention to our own security and needs at our own borders."

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) February 19, 2023

🇺🇸🇷🇺 US diplomat Nuland's words that Crimea is legitimate target for Kiev and America highlight depth of disagreement between Washington and Moscow, and that US is main provocateur of international tension - Peskov. pic.twitter.com/c7sUauAjit

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) February 19, 2023

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇺🇦🇷🇺"China's arms supplies to Russia for fighting in Ukraine will become a "red line" and that is "unacceptable" - US permanent representative to the UN Greenfield

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) February 19, 2023

🇩🇪🇺🇦🇷🇺The conflict in Ukraine will cost Germany 160 billion euros by the end of the year

At the end of 2023, the German authorities expect a decrease in the country's GDP by 4%, the drop in GDP per capita will reach 2 000 euros. — Reuters

— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) February 19, 2023

Cal88 said:

---

Ursine said:

---

---

^Three American traitors/Kremilin Bots, right there!

---

Even more Putin supporters once you watch the video. How does Putin manage to mind control all these people into supporting his evil plans for world domination?

Right, Chris Hedges, Richard Wolff etc, why aren't all these traitors already in Gitmo?!?

movielover said:

---

Ursine said:

---

As it becomes undeniable Ukraine is losing, @washingtonpost editorial board calls for major escalation of war. Not yet, but soon they’ll call for NATO troops openly in Ukraine. Risk of nuclear war is not negligible. They’ll never stop with this madness https://t.co/9AABH17qHC pic.twitter.com/2KtfSOqLP5

— Ali Abunimah (@AliAbunimah) February 19, 2023

---

In the recent excellent HistoryLegends video, the host posts a list of alleged NATO ammunitions (depleted) stockpiles, and the typical production output. The ammo available and production timelines, if true, are horrendous and unmanageable.

BigC, bearister, and Unit2 leave out all those nice chumy Nazi fellows on the Ukrainian side.

Roos-kies fall out of windows = very bad

Ukrainian peace officials assassinated, leaders threatened, extremists run amoke = crickets

---

While it's always flattering to be mentioned in the same breath as bearister and Unit2, if you were to read what I have written about this situation over the past year, you would find that we are not in complete agreement on this issue.

As I could never ask anyone to go back and read my posts, I will lay out my position again, in brief: I agree with them that Putin is bad and that we are currently following the correct path by supporting Ukraine.

However, I also believe that the US and its NATO allies never should have mentioned expanding NATO east of Poland. And the Ukrainian govt and military, while they are now the victims in this situation, true, are not automatically a bunch of Mother Teresas.

I'd like to see this war stopped. Failing that, I'd like to see it at least contained. While I wish everybody in the Donbas a wonderful life, I don't particularly care what country they are a part of. (Oh sure, in a perfect world, Putin wouldn't be rewarded by gaining any territory from his invasion, but... )

I will also add: The video news source I regularly watch the most is PBS News Hour. Unfortunately, they have been an unquestioning, never-ending hype machine for Ukraine and our involvement there. I'm getting tired of them claiming no biases, when they obviously have agendas, but I'm too much a creature of habit (Every week night from 6-7 is so easy for me to remember!).

No sources given.

especially given it and Europe are objectively in relative decline at a minimum.

The entire world order is changing before us.

The United States currently produces 14K 155mm artillery shells per month, and plans to increase this to 90K in 2024.

— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) February 19, 2023

Russia, meanwhile, produced 1,7M until beginning of 2022, increased their rate to 3,3M in 2022 and further plans for 5M per year by 2024.

If reports of China moving to directly supply lethal aid are accurate, the firepower advantage will grow wider yet.

/Inter Slava Z/

— Trollstoy (@Trollstoy88) February 19, 2023

If you are using a lot of artillery shells in your army then you are fighting with WW2 methods.

US doctrine is to obtain air superiority and place munitions on target with virtually unlimited range and pinpoint accuracy.

Russia and China know they won't have this advantage when fighting the US so they keep investing in artillery.

Much ado about nothing except when it is two second rate militaries engaging each other such as Russia and Ukraine.

Many believe Russia is actually fighting NATO too. NATO weapons including stingers, javelines, himars, along with logistics, satellites, advisors, tanks, ammo, strategy and years of training.

dimitrig said:

---

If you are using a lot of artillery shells in your army then you are fighting with WW2 methods.

US doctrine is to obtain air superiority and place munitions on target with virtually unlimited range and pinpoint accuracy.

Russia and China know they won't have this advantage when fighting the US so they keep investing in artillery.

Much ado about nothing except when it is two second rate militaries engaging each other such as Russia and Ukraine.

---

US military doctrine has been geared to fighting third rate smaller countries for the last 70 years. It's one thing to gain air superiority vs a country like Iraq, and another vs Russia, which has the world's best air defense system by a wide margin.

The reason why the Russians haven't been using their air force extensively in Ukraine is that Ukraine's 10%-20% leftover fleet of aging S-300s that the Russians haven't destroyed yet can still take down any aircraft that flies within range, whether those are Sukhois or F-16s. The Russians have better AA systems that might even be able to track and triangulate stealth F35s.

The other issue with US doctrine potentially being applied in the Ukraine front is that the US has always operated with its logistical and support infrastructure well out of harm, it wouldn't be the case here. Russia can bomb air bases with hypersonic missiles 1,000km away, or shoot down any tanker or AWACS from 500km-600km out. Those are very large, slow, non-maneuverable targets flying well above ground level and are no match for Russian S-400s and S-500s coming in at Mach 14 (3 miles per second), undetectable by radar due to the plasma layer they fly through. The USAF doesn't have the means to fully suppress Russian AA systems with its fleet of F18s with HARM anti-radar, it can only make a dent into Russian stocks, while taking a lot of losses.

So basically without air superiority on either side, artillery is "king of the battle", which has been a constant since the Napoleonic Wars.. That's the basis of Russian military doctrine at their borders. They have more tubes, produce more shells than all of NATO combined, by a large margin. That is essentially why the outcome of this war in not in doubt, for those who aren't completely clouded with western hubris.

"God fights on the side with the best artillery"
Napoleon Bonaparte.

Big C said:

---

While it's always flattering to be mentioned in the same breath as bearister and Unit2

---

You have that backwards. They should be flattered to be mentioned in the same breath as you, as you exhibit the signs of critical thinking that they sorely lack.

Big C said:

---

movielover said:

---

Ursine said:

---

As it becomes undeniable Ukraine is losing, @washingtonpost editorial board calls for major escalation of war. Not yet, but soon they’ll call for NATO troops openly in Ukraine. Risk of nuclear war is not negligible. They’ll never stop with this madness https://t.co/9AABH17qHC pic.twitter.com/2KtfSOqLP5

— Ali Abunimah (@AliAbunimah) February 19, 2023

---

In the recent excellent HistoryLegends video, the host posts a list of alleged NATO ammunitions (depleted) stockpiles, and the typical production output. The ammo available and production timelines, if true, are horrendous and unmanageable.

BigC, bearister, and Unit2 leave out all those nice chumy Nazi fellows on the Ukrainian side.

Roos-kies fall out of windows = very bad

Ukrainian peace officials assassinated, leaders threatened, extremists run amoke = crickets

---

And the Ukrainian govt and military, while they are now the victims in this situation, true, are not automatically a bunch of Mother Teresas.

---

This has been the biggest red herring in my opinion. Virtually no one is claiming that the Ukranians are ideologically or politically pure or even "good". There may be nazi elements, perhaps even someone wearing an ISIS patch (if that's even true?), and other bad actors.

But they're still better than Putin and his crew if for no other reason than the fact that Putin has aggressively intervened in and invaded third countries.

BearGoggles said:

---

Big C said:

---

movielover said:

---

Ursine said:

---

As it becomes undeniable Ukraine is losing, @washingtonpost editorial board calls for major escalation of war. Not yet, but soon they’ll call for NATO troops openly in Ukraine. Risk of nuclear war is not negligible. They’ll never stop with this madness https://t.co/9AABH17qHC pic.twitter.com/2KtfSOqLP5

— Ali Abunimah (@AliAbunimah) February 19, 2023

---

In the recent excellent HistoryLegends video, the host posts a list of alleged NATO ammunitions (depleted) stockpiles, and the typical production output. The ammo available and production timelines, if true, are horrendous and unmanageable.

BigC, bearister, and Unit2 leave out all those nice chumy Nazi fellows on the Ukrainian side.

Roos-kies fall out of windows = very bad

Ukrainian peace officials assassinated, leaders threatened, extremists run amoke = crickets

---

And the Ukrainian govt and military, while they are now the victims in this situation, true, are not automatically a bunch of Mother Teresas.

---

This has been the biggest red herring in my opinion. Virtually no one is claiming that the Ukranians are ideologically or politically pure or even "good". There may be nazi elements, perhaps even someone wearing an ISIS patch (if that's even true?), and other bad actors.

But they're still better than Putin and his crew if for no other reason than the fact that Putin has aggressively intervened in and invaded third countries.

---

I agree with what I believe to be your general point, that who cares, it's Putin invading Ukraine and that's what's important. But the propaganda machine (I referenced one source above) actually does, by their overall reportage, often imply that this is bad guys invading good guys ("fledgling democracy" and all that. Okay, maybe compared to Russia, but still...).

Only one side committing atrocities, only one side conscripting people who don't want to fight, etc.

I fully expect somebody to make the point that what makes Ukraine the good guys is that they are the invadees, not the invaders. I get that and please note (for the umpteenth time) that I am on Ukraine's side here and support our efforts to help them. It's just that I would just prefer a little nuance in this story. I know, they figure Americans can't do nuance.

I think it's actually bad guys invading not-so-bad guys.

For all of you who know or are related to some Ukrainians and know them to be good people, hey, me too: I have good friends who came here from Kiev about 25 years ago. It's just that, I'm pretty sure there are a lot of good guys in Russia, too. I wish they would topple their leader.

Cal88 said:

---

dimitrig said:

---

If you are using a lot of artillery shells in your army then you are fighting with WW2 methods.

US doctrine is to obtain air superiority and place munitions on target with virtually unlimited range and pinpoint accuracy.

Russia and China know they won't have this advantage when fighting the US so they keep investing in artillery.

Much ado about nothing except when it is two second rate militaries engaging each other such as Russia and Ukraine.

---

US military doctrine has been geared to fighting third rate smaller countries for the last 70 years. It's one thing to gain air superiority vs a country like Iraq, and another vs Russia, which has the world's best air defense system by a wide margin.

The reason why the Russians haven't been using their air force extensively in Ukraine is that Ukraine's 10%-20% leftover fleet of aging S-300s that the Russians haven't destroyed yet can still take down any aircraft that flies within range, whether those are Sukhois or F-16s. The Russians have better AA systems that might even be able to track and triangulate stealth F35s.

The other issue with US doctrine potentially being applied in the Ukraine front is that the US has always operated with its logistical and support infrastructure well out of harm, it wouldn't be the case here. Russia can bomb air bases with hypersonic missiles 1,000km away, or shoot down any tanker or AWACS from 500km-600km out. Those are very large, slow, non-maneuverable targets flying well above ground level and are no match for Russian S-400s and S-500s coming in at Mach 14 (3 miles per second), undetectable by radar due to the plasma layer they fly through. The USAF doesn't have the means to fully suppress Russian AA systems with its fleet of F18s with HARM anti-radar, it can only make a dent into Russian stocks, while taking a lot of losses.

So basically without air superiority on either side, artillery is "king of the battle", which has been a constant since the Napoleonic Wars.. That's the basis of Russian military doctrine at their borders. They have more tubes, produce more shells than all of NATO combined, by a large margin. That is essentially why the outcome of this war in not in doubt, for those who aren't completely clouded with western hubris.

"God fights on the side with the best artillery"
Napoleon Bonaparte.

---

I don't think Napoleon was overly concerned about air supremacy.


The S-400 myth: Why Russia's air defense prowess is exaggerated

We don't have to guess. There is actual recent experience from a fight between the U.S. and Russia's Wagner group.

1/ A Telegram channel linked to the Wagner Group has published an insider account of the only known clash between the mercenary group and the US military – the 7 February 2018 battle near Khasham in Syria, in which many Wagner fighters reportedly died. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ecNnhccXfx

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 7, 2023

dajo9 said:

---

We don't have to guess. There is actual recent experience from a fight between the U.S. and Russia's Wagner group.

1/ A Telegram channel linked to the Wagner Group has published an insider account of the only known clash between the mercenary group and the US military – the 7 February 2018 battle near Khasham in Syria, in which many Wagner fighters reportedly died. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ecNnhccXfx

— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) February 7, 2023

---

Did WAGNER in Syria have the anti-aircraft, artillery, missile, and airpower backup they'd have on the western border of Russia? Apples and Oranges.

Biden visits Ukraine ahead of one-year anniversary of Russia's invasion


https://www.axios.com/2023/02/20/biden-surprise-visit-kyiv-ukraine-russia-invasion

"White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters the administration did notify Russia about Biden's visit to Kyiv "some hours before his departure for deconfliction purposes." Sullivan would not go into details about how Russian officials responded."*

*It appears Super Powers wage wars with side gentleman's agreements.

CNN had a few interesting articles today.

First is a pretty balanced assessment of the war 1 year in. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/europe/russia-ukraine-war-predictions-intl/index.html

Quote:

---

In the process the Ukrainians have inflicted stunning losses on the Russian army, and laid bare the outmoded tactics, stale leadership and brittle morale of a force more impressive on parade than on the battlefield.

By contrast, Ukrainian units have proved nimble and adaptive, harnessing drone technology, decentralized command and smart operational planning to exploit their enemy's systemic weaknesses.

And few would have bet that one year into this war, the vintage Ukrainian air force would still be flying.
…

But on this first anniversary of the Russian invasion Ukraine has more pressing needs than main battle tanks. During a CNN team's two-week tour of frontline positions, one refrain echoed time and again: "We need shells."

One Ukrainian soldier appeared on television last week and said: "We need shells, shells, and, once again, shells."

While Ukraine is absorbing and training on Western hardware, it is also trying to fight a war with Soviet-era armor, scouring the world for large-caliber munitions and spare parts. The "ammo deficit" is its Achilles heel, in the face of the vast Russian reservoir of artillery and rockets systems.

"It is clear that we are in a race of logistics," said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg last week.
…

As the prelude to the assault gets underway, the Russian high command may not feel encouraged. Repeated attempts to advance in the Vuhledar area (perhaps a laboratory for the wider campaign) have gone badly.

The failure even to deliver Bakhmut as a victory for the Kremlin before the anniversary is a reminder that the Russians are more capable of inflicting destruction than taking territory. Effective combined arms operations have eluded Russian battalions.

Senior US, British and Ukrainian officials have told CNN they are skeptical Russia has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains.

"It's likely more aspirational than realistic," said a senior US military official last week, with Russian forces moving before they are ready, due to political pressure from the Kremlin.

---

Second is an opinion piece from John Sullivan, the former ambassador to Russia, about the bad faith peace "negotiations" with Russia. This is just more evidence from someone inside the room that any notion of a negotiated end to this war with Russia will only come when Russia is on its knees. This war will end only when Russia is ready for it to end, not because the West employs diplomacy.

Now I know this doesn't align with the Russian propaganda crowd but this is far more plausible than the garbage they amplify. This is why Zelensky and others aren't holding their breath for a reasonable end to this war with any semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/opinions/us-ambassador-russia-invasion-negotiate-sullivan-ctrp/index.html

Quote:

---

Immediately, our engagement was reduced to the grave Russian threat to Ukraine and the "security guarantees" Russia sought from the United States and NATO. It was apparent to me that the Russians had no intention of negotiating in good faith.

Russian interlocutors read from their talking points and would not engage in a real dialogue. Minders from the Russian security services monitored every meeting and phone call. The Russians were going through a diplomatic charade to lay the groundwork for an invasion that Putin had already decided to launch. The only question was when.

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

CNN had a few interesting articles today.

First is a pretty balanced assessment of the war 1 year in. https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/europe/russia-ukraine-war-predictions-intl/index.html

Quote:

---

In the process the Ukrainians have inflicted stunning losses on the Russian army, and laid bare the outmoded tactics, stale leadership and brittle morale of a force more impressive on parade than on the battlefield.

By contrast, Ukrainian units have proved nimble and adaptive, harnessing drone technology, decentralized command and smart operational planning to exploit their enemy's systemic weaknesses.

And few would have bet that one year into this war, the vintage Ukrainian air force would still be flying.
…

But on this first anniversary of the Russian invasion Ukraine has more pressing needs than main battle tanks. During a CNN team's two-week tour of frontline positions, one refrain echoed time and again: "We need shells."

One Ukrainian soldier appeared on television last week and said: "We need shells, shells, and, once again, shells."

While Ukraine is absorbing and training on Western hardware, it is also trying to fight a war with Soviet-era armor, scouring the world for large-caliber munitions and spare parts. The "ammo deficit" is its Achilles heel, in the face of the vast Russian reservoir of artillery and rockets systems.

"It is clear that we are in a race of logistics," said NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg last week.
…

As the prelude to the assault gets underway, the Russian high command may not feel encouraged. Repeated attempts to advance in the Vuhledar area (perhaps a laboratory for the wider campaign) have gone badly.

The failure even to deliver Bakhmut as a victory for the Kremlin before the anniversary is a reminder that the Russians are more capable of inflicting destruction than taking territory. Effective combined arms operations have eluded Russian battalions.

Senior US, British and Ukrainian officials have told CNN they are skeptical Russia has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains.

"It's likely more aspirational than realistic," said a senior US military official last week, with Russian forces moving before they are ready, due to political pressure from the Kremlin.

---

Second is an opinion piece from John Sullivan, the former ambassador to Russia, about the bad faith peace "negotiations" with Russia. This is just more evidence from someone inside the room that any notion of a negotiated end to this war with Russia will only come when Russia is on its knees. This war will end only when Russia is ready for it to end, not because the West employs diplomacy.

Now I know this doesn't align with the Russian propaganda crowd but this is far more plausible than the garbage they amplify. This is why Zelensky and others aren't holding their breath for a reasonable end to this war with any semblance of Ukrainian sovereignty.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/20/opinions/us-ambassador-russia-invasion-negotiate-sullivan-ctrp/index.html

Quote:

---

Immediately, our engagement was reduced to the grave Russian threat to Ukraine and the "security guarantees" Russia sought from the United States and NATO. It was apparent to me that the Russians had no intention of negotiating in good faith.

Russian interlocutors read from their talking points and would not engage in a real dialogue. Minders from the Russian security services monitored every meeting and phone call. The Russians were going through a diplomatic charade to lay the groundwork for an invasion that Putin had already decided to launch. The only question was when.

---

---

As reflective of nearly all MSM reporters, the writer of this article is a partisan hack, not a real journalist, here he is literally mocking former UK labour leader Jeremy Corbyn for suggesting that a peace settlement should be pursued:

laughable... https://t.co/Y1sJTPSohG

— Tim Lister (@TimListerCNN) February 5, 2023

Russia has a 10 to 1 advantage in firepower volume in a war of attrition where about 75%-85% of casualties don`t even see their enemy, yet it is the Ukrainians that have inflicted "stunning losses" on the Ruiisans?!? In reality the casualty tally is heavily lopsided in favor of Russia, somewhere around 8 to 1 according to sources like the Mossad or col. MacGregor.

Ukraine has been trying to hold on to Bakhmut at all costs, currently the city is encircled from three directions,, with the lone road left open within Russian artillery range. Zelensky is desperately trying to hold on to Bakmut at least through the upcoming 1-year anniversary of the war this week. They will probably retreat from Bakhmut sometime in March, having expended somewhere up to 40,000 soldiers in an attempt to hold on to that strategic outpost.

Going forward, as highlighted even in this biased article, Ukraine's disadvantage in shells is going to become even more dramatic. Their manpower issues, as evidenced by the aggressive gang-pressing tactics of recruiting patrols in Ukrainian citie are going to be a problem as well.

No, not balanced.

- no mention of NATO / Ukraine running out of ammo, with no solution
- no mention of our desire to "humiliate" and "weaken" Russia, and depose Putin
- no mention of Russia's military progress the past month
- no mention of NATO pushing eastward crossing Russia's redline
- no mention of 15,000 slaughtered Russians in the Donbas
- no mention of kingmaker Victoria Nuland upending local politics
- no mention of the peace talk progress of the PM of Israel with Russia and Ukraine which America ended (via lackey Boris Johnson)
- no notation that Russia went in 'soft' and deliberately avoided civilian infrastructure
- no acknowledgement that this is a proxy war for America (NATO)

Cal88 said:

---

A more sobering analysis of the first year of war from James Rickards:

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-horrifying-endgame-in-ukraine/

Excerpts:

"The Horrifying Endgame in Ukraine

... by far the most alarming topic on the geopolitical landscape today - the war in Ukraine and the dangers of escalation.

I've written extensively about two facets of the war in Ukraine that you don't hear from legacy media in the United States or U.K. The first is that Russia is actually winning the war.

U.S. outlets such as The New York Times (a channel for the State Department) and The Washington Post (a channel for the CIA) report endlessly about how Russian plans have failed, about how incompetent they are about how the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have pushed back Russians in the Donbass, and how NATO weapons such as U.S. Abrams tanks, U.K. Challenger tanks and German Leopard tanks will turn the tide against Russia soon.

This is all nonsense. None of it is true.

...In all, credible reports indicate that AFU casualties are nearing 500,000 and are increasing at an unsustainable rate. On the other hand, reports of 100,000 Russian dead are almost certainly wild exaggerations put out by Ukraine. The BBC attempted to verify these numbers and could only find about 20,000 confirmed Russian dead based on extensive searches on funeral notices, public records, etc."

---

Without going so far as to say Ukraine is winning this war, I have little doubt that Russia attempts to conceal the numbers of their deaths/casualties. Russian mother: "Where's my son?" Russian Army: "Location classified."" or "Temporarily missing." BBC counting Russian dead via funeral notices and public records? Gimme a break.

movielover said:

---

No, not balanced.

- no mention of NATO / Ukraine running out of ammo, with no solution
- no mention of our desire to "humiliate" and "weaken" Russia, and depose Putin
- no mention of Russia's military progress the past month
- no mention of NATO pushing eastward crossing Russia's redline
- no mention of 15,000 slaughtered Russians in the Donbas
- no mention of kingmaker Victiria Nuland upending local politics
- no mention of the peace talk progress of the PM of Israel with Russia and Ukraine which America ended (via lackey Boris Johnson)
- no notation that Russia went in 'soft' and deliberately avoided civilian infrastructure
- no acknowledgement that this is a proxy war for America (NATO)

---

Damn, you're charging hard with Putin's propaganda today. Putin attacked Ukraine without provocation. Everything else directly resulted from that. We can compose lengthy messages all day here (and I admire the genuine posters who do so), but that is the cut-and-dried reality.

Big C said:

---

Honest question for you military logistics types: One of Ukraine's biggest needs is "shells"? It would seem as though that would be the easiest thing to help them out with, even if it meant us making more, starting many months ago. Are they specific shells that need to fit their weaponry? Even so...

It's not like the US/NATO aren't capable of manufacturing shells. Jesus. Okay, there is probably a piece here that I'm missing, so what is it?

---

Short answer is that you need humans cutting and bending metal. Artillery production hasn't really been automated and this sort of heavy industry takes a lot of time to ramp up.

There is some hope on the horizon but it will still take time to ramp up.

Exclusive: EU members may agree to pool ammunition purchases as early as next month in a push to secure badly needed firepower for Ukraine https://t.co/i3EYSBBrPk via @bpolitics @nat_droz @AlbertoNardelli

— Patrick Donahue (@patrickjdo) February 19, 2023

In other news, not related to shell production, NYT reporting here on how Putin has circled the wagons to reduce western influence and crack down on dissent over the last year. Fans of authoritarianism rejoice. Despite the massive brain drain and demographic problems in Russia, Putin is happy to have people leave to make his mind control easier on the people who remain.

Quote:

---

"Liberalism in Russia is dead forever, thank God," Konstantin Malofeyev, an ultraconservative business tycoon, bragged in a phone interview on Saturday. "The longer this war lasts, the more Russian society is cleansing itself from liberalism and the Western poison."

That the invasion has dragged on for a year has made Russia's transformation go far deeper, he said, than it would have had Mr. Putin's hopes for a swift victory been realized.

"If the Blitzkrieg had succeeded, nothing would have changed," he said.

The Kremlin for years sought to keep Mr. Malofeyev at arm's length, even as he funded pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine and called for Russia to be reformed into an empire of "traditional values," free of Western influence. But that changed after the invasion, as Mr. Putin turned "traditional values" into a rallying cry signing a new anti-gay law, for instance while styling himself as another Peter the Great retaking lost Russian lands.

Most important, Mr. Malofeyev said, Russia's liberals have either been silenced or have fled the country, while Western companies have left voluntarily.

...
"A new system of values has been built," Aleksandr Daniel, an expert on Soviet dissidents, said afterward. "Brutal and archaic public values."

A year ago, as Washington warned of an imminent invasion, most Russians dismissed the possibility; Mr. Putin, after all, had styled himself as a peace-loving president who would never attack another country. So after the invasion started stunning some of the president's closest aides the Kremlin scrambled to adjust its propaganda to justify it.

It was the West that went to war against Russia by backing "Nazis" who took power in Ukraine in 2014, the false message went, and the goal of Mr. Putin's "special military operation" was to end the war the West had started.

In a series of addresses aimed at shoring up domestic support, Mr. Putin cast the invasion as a near-holy war for Russia's very identity, declaring that it was fighting to prevent liberal gender norms and acceptance of homosexuality from being forced upon it by an aggressive West.

The full power of the state was deployed to spread and enforce that message. National television channels, all controlled by the Kremlin, dropped entertainment programming in favor of more news and political talk shows; schools were directed to add a regular flag-raising ceremony and "patriotic" education; the police hunted down people for offenses like antiwar Facebook posts, helping to push hundreds of thousands of Russians out of the country.

"Society in general has gone off the rails," Sergei Chernyshov, who runs a private high school in the Siberian metropolis of Novosibirsk, said in a phone interview. "They've flipped the ideas of good and evil."

---

This post will be followed by a barrrage of firehose of falsehoods. Ask me how I know!

Unit2Sucks said:

---

This post will be followed by a barrrage of firehose of falsehoods. Ask me how I know!

---

Because you plan on making more posts in this thread?

Big C said:

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Honest question for you military logistics types: One of Ukraine's biggest needs is "shells"? It would seem as though that would be the easiest thing to help them out with, even if it meant us making more, starting many months ago. Are they specific shells that need to fit their weaponry? Even so...

It's not like the US/NATO aren't capable of manufacturing shells. Jesus. Okay, there is probably a piece here that I'm missing, so what is it?

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You'd think. We can't at this level, and bureaucrat are in charge. My question is why didn't dozens of leaders act on this need six months ago?

You're assuming a lot. Europe, after two world wars, is war weary and depends upon America for many military needs. The US and NATO are also apparently more enamored of newer technologies. Russia is waging an older war with a focus on artillery.

They apparently have massive stockpiles and big production capability. Colonel McGregor has explained this is why he believes Russian casualties are low, and Ukraines are high (275K KIA, 200K injured, with 50% able to resume fighting). Even official European Command estimates a 4-to-1 daily artillery advantagecto Russia, while McGregor estimates its up to 10-to-1 ratio, 60,000 shells vs 6,000 shells, per day).

HistoryLegends posted an alleged accounting (summary) of various ammo and missile stockpiles, and yearly production numbers. The US is reportedly planning a 500% increase, which still won't meet Ukraines total need next year. Israel supposedly has one of the last large stockpiles of ammo, and it could be ours. Unclear there. If that supposed allotment of 250,000 shells goes to Ukraine, it might last 41 days.

Don't forget, this is the kind of manufacturing we abandoned to China and Mexico. Could the MIC make money by producing ammo in Mexico?

(Undoutedly some ammo is going sideways to the black market; and if NATO countries are seriously concerned about Russia, wouldn't they preserve ammo for their own defense?)

P.S. Fifty years ago in SoCal there were many skilled craftsmen, machinists, welders that worked at McDonnell Douglass, Hughes, in car manufacturing, military industries, etc. We lost a lot of that talent to Texas, Mexico, Vietnam, China and elsewhere.