Special Military Operation.

Asked and answered previously.

MR Online: Zelensky admits he never intended to implement Minsk agreements

https://mronline.org/2023/02/11/zelensky-admits-he-never-intended-to-implement-minsk-agreements/

movielover said:

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Special Military Operation.

Asked and answered previously.

MR Online: Zelensky admits he never intended to implement Minsk agreements

https://mronline.org/2023/02/11/zelensky-admits-he-never-intended-to-implement-minsk-agreements/

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Why do you refer to it as a special military operation instead of a war? Do you not think it's a war?

Thank you for sharing absolutely nothing about why Minsk was relevant to Putin launching a war. Why would Putin care about an agreement that he claims Russia isn't a party to or bound by? Why does Minsk matter to Russia?

Or do you think Putin has been lying and that it was actually party to Minsk?

C'mon Bakhmut Bob, you can do better than just posting irrelevant links to content. Tell us what you actually think so that we can examine those beliefs. You've been crowing about Minsk for months, why are you so terrified of telling us how an agreement between third parties caused Putin to launch a war?

The SMO designation is an effort on the part of the Russians to contain their invasion of Ukraine to a lower status of escalation. It`s a kind of self-imposed restraint for these internal and external political reasons:

-They want to show restraint in order to keep key neutrals like India, Brazil, Indonesia, Africans and even China in their camp

-They want to keep large reserves on the ready in order to dissuade NATO from piling in with boots on the ground and edging closer to a full-on conventional war with NATO.

-They want to keep a relative state of normalcy at home, reduce the psychological and economic impact of the invasion on their civilian population

-They want to limit their own losses, keeping the war to a high simmer level in protracted artillery duels where they can exploit their huge edge in firepower volume, inflicting disproportionate losses on Ukraine. Time is on Russia's side.

oski003 said:

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Cal88 said:

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dimitrig said:

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movielover said:

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Puppet Scott Ritter estimated kill rates from a podcast today:

- 30 Russias KIA per day / ('200 a week')
- 100 American KIA in Vietnam / a day
- 1,000 Ukrainians KIA / a day

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Do you really believe 1000 Ukrainians are being killed every day but only 30 Russians?

Is that soldiers or just old women and children?

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The kill ratio has been heavily lopsided, that much is certain, though it's hard to ascertain with precision how lopsided it has been, it's anywhere between 5 to 1 to 8 to 1 overall.

This being said, the current situation in Bakhmut has been one where complete noobs conscripts have been taken from the streets of Kharkov, Odessa, Dnipro etc and sent to the "meat grinder" to plug gaps, by the thousands, going against hardened, well-organized Wagner squads, with no air support, artillery support, not even mortars, just light weapons they barely know how to use. This is where we have kill ratios well above 10 to 1.

In cases where Wagner is going against more hardened troops in Bakhmut like the 94th and special forces, like the battle for the metalworks industrial zone in the north of the city, the loss ratio still favors Russia, as they have far greater artillery and air support resources, because the Ukrainians are heavily constrained in their supply lines to that front, and they start with far smaller resources (down to only 300 artillery pieces for the whole front, with something like 10 shells/day available per canon). But that ratio is somewhere around 5 to 1 in favor of the Russians, vs up to 30 to 1 against the untrained, panicky "bunnies", poor souls that are being sacrificed by the tens of thousands in the last few months.

I would refer you to the recent WaPo article, which is a rare candid account of what is really going on in a sea of MSM propaganda:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/

"On the front lines, however, the mood is dark.

Kupol, who consented to having his photograph taken and said he understood he could face personal blowback for giving a frank assessment, described going to battle with newly drafted soldiers who had never thrown a grenade, who readily abandoned their positions under fire and who lacked confidence in handling firearms.

His unit withdrew from Soledar in eastern Ukraine in the winter after being surrounded by Russian forces who later captured the city. Kupol recalled how hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers in units fighting alongside his battalion simply abandoned their positions, even as fighters for Russia's Wagner mercenary group pressed ahead.

After a year of war, Kupol, a lieutenant colonel, said his battalion is unrecognizable. Of about 500 soldiers, roughly 100 were killed in action and another 400 wounded, leading to complete turnover. Kupol said he was the sole military professional in the battalion, and he described the struggle of leading a unit composed entirely of inexperienced troops.

"I get 100 new soldiers," Kupol said. "They don't give me any time to prepare them. They say, 'Take them into the battle.' They just drop everything and run. That's it. Do you understand why? Because the soldier doesn't shoot. I ask him why, and he says, 'I'm afraid of the sound of the shot.' And for some reason, he has never thrown a grenade."

So yes, I do believe that the kill ratio in a fight between Wagner squads and Ukrainian conscripts who are literally afraid of the sound of their AKs is going to be somewhere around 30 to 1.

This also really shows how cruel and pointless this war is, it is a wholesale massacre of a generation (or two) of Ukrainian men being forcibly sent to their deaths by the tens of thousands.

There is no military solution for Ukraine, this is something I have been repeating for a year, and now this reality is only starting to emerge through the wartime propaganda.

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Fair enough, but why has Russia been trying to take Bakhmut for six months? Shouldn't they have taken it months ago if what you are saying is true? Are you saying that Ukraine has been holding Bakhmut for half a year despite being low on ammo and taking 5 to 1 losses? If Bakhmut is virtually surrounded, how is Ukraine still sending the amount of reinforcements in that would cover these massive losses?

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The military objective of Russia, which has become quite clear, is to deplete/destroy Ukraine's military forces. It's the Von Clausewitz military doctrine. He believed that the central goal in war is first and foremost to destroy your enemy's military, after which you can impose your political will on him (including territorial concessions).

The Russians' other objective is to minimize their own losses in pursuing that goal, heavily relying on their depth in firepower volume. This yields a WW1-like fairly static war with an enormous volume of ammunition being expended, with the Russians using around 1 million shells per month, over 10 times the volume Ukraine has been using to date.

That ratio is going to become even more lopsided as the NATO sources of ammo abroad further dwindle. Also dwindling are Ukrainian/NATO stocks of anti-tank weapons, AA systems, infrastructure (roads, bridges, rail, power grid etc). Not only are these sources coming in from Poland down to a trickle, but whatever makes it across the border has to trudge for hundreds of miles to the front, subject to being hit by cruise missiles, drone systems, MLRS or artillery.

For Russia, Bakhmut has been a great staging ground towards the end of attriting Ukrainian forces. The Russians have achieved early on overall dominance over this front, slowly closing their grip, they were slow and methodical in their approach. Since the beginning of the year they have had `"operational encirclement" of Bakhmut, able to shell Ukrainian supply lines while pinning down Ukrainian troops.

They had superior tactics, equipment and fire support in this battle so they were inflicting disproportionate losses on Ukrainians. Right now the Ukrainians are reduced to one muddy dirt road to evacuate or bring in heavy equipment, which the Russians can now take out with mortars and their ATGMs, the longer-range version of the Javelin, the Kornet, which has a range of 8km (vs ~3km for the Javelin).

It,s been a turkey shoot for the Russians on the main Ukrainian supply line to Bakhmut, and on underequipped, undersupported troops within the city. So they're in no hurry to close the last road out. This is once again classic Mongol war tactic, surround the enemy but leave one exit road open and exploit that.

Zelensky's government has played into their hands, as they are PR-driven and can't afford the psychological blow that the fall of Bakhmut would bring, doubling down like a drunk casino player instead of cutting their losses. In wanting to preserve that city at all costs, they are using up their reserves and might have hampered a serious attempt at mounting a significant Spring offensive. In that sense Bakhmut is very similar to Stalingrad.

Trump says 'USA-hating people' bigger threat than Russia to U.S.



https://mol.im/a/11872085

Unit2Sucks said:

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Whatever happened to the devastating offensive that Russia was preparing? So far it looks like it consisted of Vuhledar, where they got smoked, Soledar which didn't matter (and took 5 months) and Bakhmut, which they still haven't managed to take in 8 months despite constant shelling and sacrificing tens of thousands of Russian ex-cons, I mean troops. Putin, of course, considers their losses to be zero because Russian lives have no value to him.

And now Russia's offensive operations are slowing down because they may be running out of manpower. I wonder why Russian state media hasn't told their BI useful idiots that story yet?

Here's reporting from Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/17/wagner-advance-in-bakhmut-as-russian-offensive-appears-to-weaken



As Russian offensive power seemed to peter out across Ukraine's eastern front, mercenary forces from Russia's Wagner Group doubled down on attacks against the Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut city in the Donetsk region during the 55th week of the war.

Ukrainian Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi said Russian ground attacks had decreased over the past week across the front from a high of up to 100 per day to below 30 per day, while there were between two and nine attacks at night. Dmytrashkivskyi believed Russian forces had suffered significant manpower and equipment losses.
…

Wagner Group mercenaries, who have led Russia's fight in Bakhmut for months, tried in February to encircle the city first from the south then from the north in an attempt to choke off supplies to the Ukrainian defenders. But they have so far failed to do so.



We are now in the 55th week of Putin'a 3 day war and yet there are people who would have us believe that everything is going to plan for Russia and that they intended to perform this poorly for this long.

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It's quite clear that they've planned for the contingency of a long war, given that for instance they are producing close to their current usage of around 1 million shells per month, a production capacity that far exceeds NATO's total ammo production. It is NATO that today has to beg Sudan and Morocco for 155mm shells, not Russia.

Putin hoped for a short war with his big arrow attacks in February-March of last year, hoping that this would have put enough political pressure on Ukraine for the adoption of his 3-point peace proposal (Crimea, Donbass autonomy, neutrality). NATO actors like Boris Johnson intervened to scuttle that potential settlement. The main goal of these maneuvers was political, Russia didn't set out to "conquer" Kiev in 2 weeks with 25,000 troops.

So the Russians have been resigned to fighting a long war, grinding away until Ukraine reaches its breaking point. Current Ukrainian casualties are up to 500,000, that breaking point will be anywhere between this current level and 1 million casualties, at which point the Ukrainian forces will have collapsed and the political pressure on Zelensky and his NATO handlers will be too strong.

If this war keeps up through Summer, Russia is going to take another 10% of Ukrainian east and south. One of the possible endgames being floated around is that Russia annexes Novorossiya, about 30% of Ukraine, and creates a friendly independent buffer state in historic Malorussia similar to Belarus, and imposes on the remaining landlocked western/Galician state a demilitarized status. That landlocked Ukraine will be stuck with the $100+ billion loan that the West has kindly extended to the Ukrainian people.

Unit2Sucks said:

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Whatever happened to the devastating offensive that Russia was preparing? So far it looks like it consisted of Vuhledar, where they got smoked, Soledar which didn't matter (and took 5 months) and Bakhmut, which they still haven't managed to take in 8 months despite constant shelling and sacrificing tens of thousands of Russian ex-cons, I mean troops. Putin, of course, considers their losses to be zero because Russian lives have no value to him.

And now Russia's offensive operations are slowing down because they may be running out of manpower. I wonder why Russian state media hasn't told their BI useful idiots that story yet?

Here's reporting from Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/17/wagner-advance-in-bakhmut-as-russian-offensive-appears-to-weaken

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There have been so many levels of wrongs in your posts lately that it's been pretty hard to keep up.

You're seriously deluded to believe that the Bakhmut front has been stalled, the Russians have been making steady and significant progress, at their own pace, while inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian troops.

Here is a brief description of the gains they've made recently, and an important perspective on the Battle of Bakhmut and its strategic importance, all in 5 minutes:



This is the kind of in-depth reporting that you won't find on Qatari news or on the official site of the armed forces of His Majesty King Charles III...

The NYT taking a clue from the WaPo, and now starting to tone down the wartime Koolaid distribution.

It's as if their reporters have been reading my posts on Bear Insider!

The NY Times finally acknowledges Bakhmut has been a military folly, depleting Ukrainian munitions stocks and reducing the likelihood of a successful Spring offensive.

But not before cheerleading the battle for months like a local sports columnist. https://t.co/h1qW1CeOtd

— Max Blumenthal (@MaxBlumenthal) March 17, 2023

This guy explains more concisely the point I have been trying to make about Bakhmut:

Typical Western opinion: Russia still trying to capture Bakhmut after eight months. Therefore, Russia is failing.

Is it not the perfect setup? Bakhmut attracts an endless stream of Ukrainians and funnels them right into the hands of the Russians.

By assigning Bakhmut such… https://t.co/c3OAP4k6H5

— Chebureki Man (@CheburekiMan) March 17, 2023

"Typical Western opinion: Russia still trying to capture Bakhmut after eight months. Therefore, Russia is failing.

Is it not the perfect setup? Bakhmut attracts an endless stream of Ukrainians and funnels them right into the hands of the Russians.

By assigning Bakhmut such symbolic importance, Zelensky has committed to sending a continuous stream of forces there until there are none left to send.

In a war of attrition, the side with the most resources wins. Russian resources far outweigh Ukraine's, so Bakhmut is a battle that Ukraine won't win.

By maintaining Bakhmut as a focal point, the Russians don't have to chase the Ukrainians off to another city and destroy that city too.

Seem like a smart strategy in order to limit destruction of urban areas, plus the Ukrainians do half the work of liquidating themselves."

movielover said:

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Ouch. The would lose the valuable east and Black Sea access. Will Poland absorb them?

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This is a jerk comment, and NATO won't let this happen. Please bear in mind that there are people here of Ukranian descent whose relatives' homes are being attacked by an invading country.

bearister said:

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Trump says 'USA-hating people' bigger threat than Russia to U.S.

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I hope some day that Trump and all the MAGA children can get their head around this concept: "hating you, what you stand for, what you are capable of, what you have done to the country, and what you still want to do to the country, is NOT the same as hating the country, it's just hating you."

We actually LOVE the country and all of the highest ideals that we actually mean rather than just say as rhetorical doublespeak and from which you want to drag us down to your tribal un-democratic autocratic kakocracy.

Because, Mr. Trump, you are not the country. You're just the POS swirling around in the cesspool of your brainwashed followers.

oski003 said:

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movielover said:

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Ouch. The would lose the valuable east and Black Sea access. Will Poland absorb them?

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This is a jerk comment, and NATO won't let this happen. Please bear in mind that there are people here of Ukranian descent whose relatives' homes are being attacked by an invading country.

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I am not of Ukrainian descent, but I do have close relatives whose home is in the line of fire, and who might soon be drafted and sent to the slaughter against their will and that of their family.

The real jerks here are those who have allowed this war to go on in the first place, and those who have let the Donbass war escalate since 2014.

Bear in mind as well that the majority of the people in the territory Russia currently occupies are glad to be rid from the tutelage of a government that has treated them as second class citizens, putting restrictions on their cultural heritage, their language and their religious freedom, in addition to being the most corrupt government in Europe.

Most people also have no idea as to how bad the independence movement was repressed in 2014, people came out in droves across the southeastern half of the country to protest against the Maidan Coup, which overturned the democratically-elected government they have voted for:

(warning - graphic content, civilians being shot by military occupiers)

MUST WATCH: After the Ukrainian president was overthrown 2014, the people in Donbass thought they can also do a revolution. Just happen in Kiev, so why not here too?
-> But the new regime in Ukraine was not as nice. The Army came to Donbass and shot them! … Then the war started! pic.twitter.com/Kk5QA6NnpO

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) March 16, 2023

On May 2, 2014, dozens of ethnic Russians were burned alive in Odessa.

Could this be a reason why Vladimir Putin did what he did?
🤔 pic.twitter.com/nWDLW0IM11

— Richard (@ricwe123) March 13, 2023

Cal88 said:

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The real jerks here are those who have allowed this war to go on in the first place, and those who have let the Donbass war escalate since 2014.

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Yup, Putin sucks.

oski003 said:

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movielover said:

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Ouch. The would lose the valuable east and Black Sea access. Will Poland absorb them?

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This is a jerk comment, and NATO won't let this happen. Please bear in mind that there are people here of Ukranian descent whose relatives' homes are being attacked by an invading
country.

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This wouldn't even be considered if Ukraine wasn't a vassal state of the NATO / US, had honored the Minsk Accords, or had given a real shot at peace in Istanbul (thanks Boris Johnson, Biden, Blinken, Nuland and Austin).

What does Ritter say? FAFO.

blungld said:

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bearister said:

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Trump says 'USA-hating people' bigger threat than Russia to U.S.

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I hope some day that Trump and all the MAGA children can get their head around this concept: "hating you, what you stand for, what you are capable of, what you have done to the country, and what you still want to do to the country, is NOT the same as hating the country, it's just hating you."

We actually LOVE the country and all of the highest ideals that we actually mean rather than just say as rhetorical doublespeak and from which you want to drag us down to your tribal un-democratic autocratic kakocracy.

Because, Mr. Trump, you are not the country. You're just the POS swirling around in the cesspool of your brainwashed followers.

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Accept this cold, hard fact: Biden, Blinken, Nuland, NATO, and Austin gave us this proxy war.

They also gave us 10% inflation, failing banks, and astronomical food inflation along with 150 million new "food insecure". (Green energy blowback.)

movielover said:

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The Kiev Independent: "a Ukrainian soldier Volodymyr, 54, said he felt ill-prepared."

Why is Ukraine deploying an ill-prepared 54-year-old soldier?

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Ukraine is fighting for its survival.

A significant portion of Ukrainian citizens (except Russian sympathizers) will be fighting against Russia in some way or another.

Old men, women, even children are going to fight in ways that they can whether that means providing intelligence, medical aid, food, or actually fighting in organized military units.

This is why Russia's invasion is stupid. They will not be able to field enough soldiers to fight all of Ukraine.

Cal88 said:

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The SMO designation is an effort on the part of the Russians to contain their invasion of Ukraine to a lower status of escalation. It`s a kind of self-imposed restraint for these internal and external political reasons:

-They want to show restraint in order to keep key neutrals like India, Brazil, Indonesia, Africans and even China in their camp

-They want to keep large reserves on the ready in order to dissuade NATO from piling in with boots on the ground and edging closer to a full-on conventional war with NATO.

-They want to keep a relative state of normalcy at home, reduce the psychological and economic impact of the invasion on their civilian population

-They want to limit their own losses, keeping the war to a high simmer level in protracted artillery duels where they can exploit their huge edge in firepower volume, inflicting disproportionate losses on Ukraine. Time is on Russia's side.

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These are all valid points except for the last one.

Time is not on Russia's side. Time is against Russia. War is expensive. The longer this goes on the more it will cost them.

Also, Russia is economically inferior to the NATO nations. Once NATO ramps up production of arms it will be very difficult for Russia to keep up.

It is in Russia's best interests for this SMO to conclude as quickly as possible.

Also, I want to mention that firepower doesn't win wars. The US pounded the snot out of the Vietnamese with artillery and helicopters and carpet bombing. We killed a lot of people in the process, but still lost the war. If Russia is hoping they can bomb Ukraine into submission that is a tactic doomed to fail.

Oil Sanctions are CRUSHING Mother Russia.

In February, Russian oil exports fell by 500,000 barrels to 7.5 million barrels a day.

Income from oil exports slumped to $11.6 billion, which is roughly HALF the $22.1 billion Moscow was earning on its oil exports in March 2022.

3....2.....1...... before a French Frog comes to Russia's defense with more Putin Propaganda.

blungld said:

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bearister said:

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Trump says 'USA-hating people' bigger threat than Russia to U.S.

---

I hope some day that Trump and all the MAGA children can get their head around this concept: "hating you, what you stand for, what you are capable of, what you have done to the country, and what you still want to do to the country, is NOT the same as hating the country, it's just hating you."

We actually LOVE the country and all of the highest ideals that we actually mean rather than just say as rhetorical doublespeak and from which you want to drag us down to your tribal un-democratic autocratic kakocracy.

Because, Mr. Trump, you are not the country. You're just the POS swirling around in the cesspool of your brainwashed followers.

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Friend of mine said this is the same rhetoric that was going on prior to the Bosnian-Serb war. You are becoming the Russians that you hate.

DiabloWags said:

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Oil Sanctions are CRUSHING Mother Russia.

In February, Russian oil exports fell by 500,000 barrels to 7.5 million barrels a day.

Income from oil exports slumped to $11.6 billion, which is roughly HALF the $22.1 billion Moscow was earning on its oil exports in March 2022.

3....2.....1...... before a French Frog comes to Russia's defense with more Putin Propaganda.

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Nice that your over-the-top posts now also feature ethnic slurs along with the half-baked takes!

Can you show me a list of Russian banks on the verge of bankruptcy? Are Russian customers lining up outside of bank doors in order to try to get their savings out the way they are now in Santa Clara, San Jose or Redwood City?

Will we start seeing riots in the streets of Moscow because their oil revenues dropped in the month of February, similar to these in Paris this week?

On the Place de la Concorde in #Paris, opposition supporters clash with the regime police. The government has with legal trickery & circumventing the parliament increased the retirement age.

No money for the French citizenry? Apparently, all the money went for weapons for the… https://t.co/zn3vqgnVQU pic.twitter.com/ZD3KsriBy1

— Mats Nilsson (@mazzenilsson) March 16, 2023

What is the size of the Russian sovereign fund, their gold and currency reserves, and their current debt to GDP ratio?

Christine Lagarde, longtime the head of the IMF and currently the head of the European Central Bank goes into how/why sanctions against Russia failed, Ukrainian corruption in a candid talk with Russian pranksters posing as Zelensky:

This is awesome, informative and entertaining all at once. She fell for it hook, line and sinker...

Full video prank with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde

In a conversation with our «Zelensky», Ms. Lagarde complained that sanctions against Russia had failed,… https://t.co/hV0UL5wo7n pic.twitter.com/pmfaMTxejM

— GraphicW (@GraphicW5) March 18, 2023