The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

875,035 Views | 9916 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by bear2034
movielover
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Will Putin drop similar munitions on Kiev? That's my guess.

Previous to this, clearly desperate Ukraine was asking the USA for cluster bombs.

I would think Ukraine, the USA and NATO would lose more international support if they stoop to these desperate measures.
movielover
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movielover
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This photo is telling on where the SMO sits:

movielover
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Unit2Sucks
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LOL at Russia pretending it's a tough guy. We're 13 months into their 3 day war with neighboring Ukraine and they still think they're capable of intimidating anyone?

At this point ML is competing with Putin88 for spreading the Kremlin gospel firehose of falsehoods and it would be impossible for anyone to keep up or attempt to respond with facts. And it appears that I'm one of a very small number of people who bothers to check this thread since it's primarily straight Kremlin BS.

I think it's really funny how ML's consumption of propaganda has changed as he has become more radicalized. It started last year with fox news guests like McGregor, Ritter, etc. who have "reasons" to claim they are independent observers, even though it has become clear that these Putin defenders have some questionable allegiances.

It's morphed into direct consumption and amplification of Russian propaganda in the form of obvious Kremlin-linked accounts like that bebo one and trollstoy. Next it will be TotallyNotPaidByKremlin. The fact that Elno is selling blue checks to anyone probably helps useful idiots think they are following someone other than a government sponsored account but it's pretty obvious what's going on.

I'm still going to come in and post stuff once in a while for any normal person who is still interested but there is no point to fact-checking or responding to Kremlin propaganda - particularly when it comes in by the dozen. Just as I've put Putin88 on ignore, it's clear that I need to do the same for ML in this thread. He's incapable of responding to anything substantive (see Minsk as an example) and is no longer even entertaining.
movielover
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The alleged delivery from the UK to Ukraine of uranium depleted shells is breaking news, and a troubling escalation.

Is Bill Gates an AI construct?

Good news for Ukraine, but it sure shows how slow thinking the US military brass is.

sycasey
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Unit2Sucks said:

LOL at Russia pretending it's a tough guy. We're 13 months into their 3 day war with neighboring Ukraine and they still think they're capable of intimidating anyone?

At this point ML is competing with Putin88 for spreading the Kremlin gospel firehose of falsehoods and it would be impossible for anyone to keep up or attempt to respond with facts. And it appears that I'm one of a very small number of people who bothers to check this thread since it's primarily straight Kremlin BS.

I think it's really funny how ML's consumption of propaganda has changed as he has become more radicalized. It started last year with fox news guests like McGregor, Ritter, etc. who have "reasons" to claim they are independent observers, even though it has become clear that these Putin defenders have some questionable allegiances.

It's morphed into direct consumption and amplification of Russian propaganda in the form of obvious Kremlin-linked accounts like that bebo one and trollstoy. Next it will be TotallyNotPaidByKremlin. The fact that Elno is selling blue checks to anyone probably helps useful idiots think they are following someone other than a government sponsored account but it's pretty obvious what's going on.

I'm still going to come in and post stuff once in a while for any normal person who is still interested but there is no point to fact-checking or responding to Kremlin propaganda - particularly when it comes in by the dozen. Just as I've put Putin88 on ignore, it's clear that I need to do the same for ML in this thread. He's incapable of responding to anything substantive (see Minsk as an example) and is no longer even entertaining.

Oh I still check in on the thread. But usually I just scroll past whatever Cal88 or movielover have posted, since it's usually just the same thing over and over. Occasionally something will move me to take a potshot, but mostly it's just boring.

Other people's contributions have been interesting.
movielover
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New non-partisan ground covered by Colonel Douglass McGregor. Colonel McGregor: "I'm worried."

1. Two American B52s make practice runs over the Baltic Sea, near St. Petersburg. We were allegedly practicing launching cruise missiles at Russia. Who is making these decisions?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11885091/Dramatic-moment-Russian-SU-35-fighter-jet-intercepts-two-B-52-nuclear-bombers-Baltic-Sea.html

2. China offers a peace plan which we reject within minutes. Does Ukraine get to weigh in?, and a clear lack of diplomacy.
3. #2 an extension of the Madeleine Albright view of American Exceptionalism ruling the world?
4. (8:40) - depleted uranium shells & tank operations.
5. Lloyd Austin fixed Syrian intelligence in the past, ergo not trustworthy?
6. Bill Burns, head of the CIA, was warning about Ukraine being a red line in 2008.
7. (16:00) American military leaders lie.
8. Recent Ukranian military group (viewed on video) wiped out in minutes by Russian military. An original strike was made, confirming the unit's location, and then a military barrage wiped everybody out. Illustrates Russia's combined use of technology, satellites, drones, etc.
9. (21:00 - 24:00) If there was a President Trump second term in 2021 - how would things be different? Colonel McGregor can promise President Trump would have called Putin (before invasion), and called him early. Could he have prevented it? Tough to say. [Truthful & balanced.] Even Trump had the system / military bureaucracy who subverted him. The people he had oversaw the later debacle at Kabul.
10. (25:00) Bay of Pigs - President Kennedy called President Eisenhower to review his debacle. Kennedy had spoken to several people; Ike relayed he hadn't spoken to enough people - to get the truth.

Our military leadership wants to "harm, hurt Russia". Who makes the decision to fly B52s in the Black Sea - the implication being it ups the ante for possible mistakes and escalation. By any action, "what do we gain, and what do we lose?" There is not enough reason and thought used. It's all emotion. Which is why President Trump's role is so vital - i.e., in June 2019 vetoing a strike package against Iran. Bolton, Pompeo, others wanted a war with Iran. President Trump said "NO!"

Things are "out of control." "I'm worried."

https://www.youtube.com/live/B2F0lrdyOhA?feature=share
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

LOL at Russia pretending it's a tough guy. We're 13 months into their 3 day war with neighboring Ukraine and they still think they're capable of intimidating anyone?

At this point ML is competing with Putin88 for spreading the Kremlin gospel firehose of falsehoods and it would be impossible for anyone to keep up or attempt to respond with facts. And it appears that I'm one of a very small number of people who bothers to check this thread since it's primarily straight Kremlin BS.

Two weeks ago, you posted low-grade, low-IQ, unfiltered war propaganda like the ridiculous allegation that Putin had poisoned his ally Chechnyan leader Kadyrov, and that Kadyrov had fled to Dubai to get medical treatment there before Vlad could finish him off.

You now know that this was completely false propaganda that you've swallowed hook, line and sinker. You never cared to acknowledge that you were completely fooled, just too eager to relay any crap on the Ukraine war that goes with your biased narrative.

You have a very poor filter for the truth, you are primarily guided by your xenophobic biases, no better in judging what is happening in Ukraine today than your average Fox-viewing redneck hack was at judging what was really going on during the Iraqi invasion.

Yesterday you've posted a WSJ article, whose claims were easy to refute with a bit of research, using sources from US media and the direct accounts from Ukrainian soldiers.

So I can understand why you might be a bit frustrated at being shown up, and are reverting to taking your ball home, or plain ad hominems, "Putin88" and "questioning allegiances" as opposed to addressing relevant content and clear, structured arguments.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

LOL at Russia pretending it's a tough guy. We're 13 months into their 3 day war with neighboring Ukraine and they still think they're capable of intimidating anyone?

This needs its own response.

The people who are clearly intimidated by Russia are the soldiers on the receiving end of their 40,000+/day artillery barrage, nearly a quarter million of whom have already died.

The difference between you and me here is that you don't give a crap about these people, who have been dying on an industrial scale.

If you cared about Ukraine and Ukrainians, you would have addressed the issue of the US and UK sending Uranium shells to the front, with radioactive material with a half life of 50,000 years, basically forever, which has been shown to create high rate of birth deformities and cancers in local population in Iraq, where these ammunition have been used.

Furthermore, in this war, it is acknowledged that the total number of soldiers killed is at least 250,000, while the number of civilians killed is less than 25,000. The ratio of civilians killed to soldiers killed is less than 1 to 10. These basic statistics tell you that the Russians in their conduct of this war, which is often fought in urban settings like Mariupol or Donbass regions, do minimize civilian casualties in their military campaign. They don't napalm city blocks, even though they could.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, that ratio was reversed, nearly 10 times more civilians than fighters were killed in mostly air force bombings. Shock and awe, people revelling at the sight Baghdad on fire, drone the weddings and funerals first and ask questions later. Same in the US attacks on cities like Mosul, Raqqa or Fallujah, which have resulted WW2-like number of civilians killed. And let's not even talk about the widespread use of uranium shells on these cities...
movielover
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If Unit2 had any awareness, he'd see I ocassionally post pro-Ukranian news items. His "firehose" seems to revolve around personal attacks.

He seems unaware that the SMO has had three phases: soft invasion; retreat, recoup, and train 300K serviceman (takes time); and full war mode.

Yesterday was the first time I've heard Colonel McGregor say "I'm worried". He's always warned that there could be an accidental escalation, there are many that want full-blown war, and we have poor political and military leadership.

He claims there are studies which claim the new low-uranium shells are harmless, and one or two which say they aren't.

Chairman Xi presented a peace plan for consideration and a cease fire, and tellingly, we (the US) instantaneously rejected it.
Cal88
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MacGregor is wrong about the toxicity of depleted uranium shells, which is well established. Perhaps it's the kind of truth that someone who is still part of the US military establishment does not want to face.

He was a commander of tank divisions IIRC.
movielover
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Edit.
movielover
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Logical. He seems sincere in wanting to stop the bloodshed.

On yesterday's podcast he explained how certain items are handled by different individuals. Did Jake Sullivan reject a cease fire / peace talks? I know very little about the Bay of Pigs, interesting to note President Kennedy wasn't given all the risks and weaknesses of the plan. And he notes how the military command, including Pompeo, wanted a 'strike package' for Iran which President Trump said "No!" after a series of simple, common sense questions. (President Trump was focused on economic growth, not military conflicts.)
Cal88
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movielover said:

Logical. He seems sincere in wanting to stop the bloodshed.

On yesterday's podcast he explained how certain items are handled by different individuals. Did Jake Sullivan reject a cease fire / peace talks? I know very little about the Bay of Pigs, interesting to note President Kennedy wasn't given all the risks and weaknesses of the plan. And he notes how the military command, including Pompeo, wanted a 'strike package' for Iran which President Trump said "No!" after a series of simple, common sense questions. (President Trump was focused on economic growth, not military conflicts.)

It's pretty clear that a president Hillary, Jeb or Rubio would have gone along with Pompeo, Bolton etc and to paraphrase that creep McCain, "bombed bombed bombed, bombed bombed Iran". Objectively speaking, standing up to the neocon establishment was a big feather in Trump's cap.

Meanwhile in Kyiiiv:

blungld
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Two keyboards beat as one...



Cal88
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blungld said:

Two keyboards beat as one...





^ Looks like you've edited out a number of other posters in that sequence, I guess for dramatic effect.

Feel free to chime in into the discussion at any point.

What is your opinion on the use of depleted uranium shells in Ukraine?
movielover
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When do I get my share of the premium caviar and vodka, comrade?
movielover
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Big C
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It bothered me to see Putin and Xi Jinping practically making out the other day on TV. Looks like we're going back to Cold War days, but with a slightly different alignment (pretty close though, actually).

Saw 60 Minutes last Sunday (I'm not quite that old, but I always used to watch it with my dad, so it's sort of a tradition): Segment on how we absolutely need to really, really build up our naval forces because China/Taiwan. Total propaganda for, what, the defense industry and neo-cons? This stuff is crazy. Leadership is absolutely crazy. The vast, vast majority of people in any of these countries don't want these nutty wars and don't care who Ukraine and Taiwan "belong to".

I am in favor of the US having a strong, but reasonable defense. Sure, let's help Ukraine and Taiwan, but they are not part of our sphere of vital interests. Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?
sycasey
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Big C said:


Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?
A little bit. The US is so far behind on domestic manufacturing of semiconductors that a quick Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a pretty big blow.
Cal88
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sycasey said:

Big C said:


Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?
A little bit. The US is so far behind on domestic manufacturing of semiconductors that a quick Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a pretty big blow.

Countries like China, Japan or even Russia have 10 year plans, sometimes even 20yr plans. Why can't we have a 10 or 15yr plan to repatriate semiconductor production?

China doesn't want or need to invade Taiwan, unless we deliberately go out of our way to cross their red lines, just like we did in Ukraine.
blungld
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Cal88 said:


What is your opinion on the use of depleted uranium shells in Ukraine?


My opinion on everything is that your bias and disingenuousness is not worth replying to.
movielover
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Big C said:



I am in favor of the US having a strong, but reasonable defense. Sure, let's help Ukraine and Taiwan, but they are not part of our sphere of vital interests. Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?


At the end of President Trumps term, TSMC announced a new massive chip plant in Arizona. It was quickly expanded possibly before they even broke ground,
over $40 Billion into two plants.

This development is key, and has therefore brought in some major subcontractors / suppliers, which will be needed for these facilities. Last I read the facilities will generate over 80,000 jobs.

I'm not up on all the details, but I believe Congress and Biden have continued the focus. These plants may be producing low to midrange chips.

The next step - can we produce the higher end
chips?

We used to have cheap and plentiful energy, but we're shooting ourselves in the foot there. Maybe Mexico will make a move, who knows.

BTW, I've read articles that say there will never be a war over Taiwan. If there was, we could immediately starve China of raw materials, and the massive reduction in trade would cripple them. Limited energy, raw materials, food... it wouldn't be pretty. Maybe in a few decades when they create routes through Russia, but not now.
movielover
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Colonel Douglass McGregor and his recent analysis/ claims:

"Only using 80-100K Russian soldiers used. Ukraine bleeding themselves to death, sending new wave after new wave. This is warfare on the scale of WWI... missiles, rockets, drones, artillery... Approximately 250K dead Ukrainians, and 300-400K casualties.

"The numbers I have recently seen from credible sources say that Russias integrated Air Defense has shot down ...

402 Jets
256 Helicopters
Thousands of unmanned aircraft (drones)

"I hate to be blunt but I no longer read what the cardboard cutout Biden says. I really don't think he's in charge. I think they hand him things to read, and he reads them... in a convincing way. ... un-appointed, un-elected, people running the government... Nuland and her band, Blinken, Austin... they won't quit. ... Germany is in trouble... a metal firm founded in 1380 has gone out of business...no energy... Germany is dying... how do we get out? "

Cal88
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movielover said:

Big C said:



I am in favor of the US having a strong, but reasonable defense. Sure, let's help Ukraine and Taiwan, but they are not part of our sphere of vital interests. Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?


At the end of President Trumps term, TSMC announced a new massive chip plant in Arizona. It was quickly expanded possibly before they even broke ground,
over $40 Billion into two plants.

This development is key, and has therefore brought in some major subcontractors / suppliers, which will be needed for these facilities. Last I read the facilities will generate over 80,000 jobs.

I'm not up on all the details, but I believe Congress and Biden have continued the focus. These plants may be producing low to midrange chips.

The next step - can we produce the higher end
chips?

We used to have cheap and plentiful energy, but we're shooting ourselves in the foot there. Maybe Mexico will make a move, who knows.

BTW, I've read articles that say there will never be a war over Taiwan. If there was, we could immediately starve China of raw materials, and the massive reduction in trade would cripple them. Limited energy, raw materials, food... it wouldn't be pretty. Maybe in a few decades when they create routes through Russia, but not now.

5 years, tops, they've already invested trillions into their road and rail silk roads. There is not much that they need that they can't get from Russia and the rest of Asia, except maybe soybeans that they get from the US, Brazil or Argentina. A sea blockade on China would severely disrupt their exports though, but that disruption would be mutual.

The fact that this time window is fairly narrow now goes a long way in explaining the emerging tensions between the US and China, it's a classic Thucydides Trap situation.


MinotStateBeav
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Big C said:


It bothered me to see Putin and Xi Jinping practically making out the other day on TV. Looks like we're going back to Cold War days, but with a slightly different alignment (pretty close though, actually).

Saw 60 Minutes last Sunday (I'm not quite that old, but I always used to watch it with my dad, so it's sort of a tradition): Segment on how we absolutely need to really, really build up our naval forces because China/Taiwan. Total propaganda for, what, the defense industry and neo-cons? This stuff is crazy. Leadership is absolutely crazy. The vast, vast majority of people in any of these countries don't want these nutty wars and don't care who Ukraine and Taiwan "belong to".

I am in favor of the US having a strong, but reasonable defense. Sure, let's help Ukraine and Taiwan, but they are not part of our sphere of vital interests. Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?
I worked for intel back in the early 00s, they had wafer plants here (San Jose). A few years after I left, I saw they moved their wafer production to I think Israel. In 90s we made 38% of all chips here in the US. In 2021 I think we make 12%. Looks like Intel is retooling chip manufacturing in Arizona soon.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know
Big C
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MinotStateBeav said:

Big C said:


It bothered me to see Putin and Xi Jinping practically making out the other day on TV. Looks like we're going back to Cold War days, but with a slightly different alignment (pretty close though, actually).

Saw 60 Minutes last Sunday (I'm not quite that old, but I always used to watch it with my dad, so it's sort of a tradition): Segment on how we absolutely need to really, really build up our naval forces because China/Taiwan. Total propaganda for, what, the defense industry and neo-cons? This stuff is crazy. Leadership is absolutely crazy. The vast, vast majority of people in any of these countries don't want these nutty wars and don't care who Ukraine and Taiwan "belong to".

I am in favor of the US having a strong, but reasonable defense. Sure, let's help Ukraine and Taiwan, but they are not part of our sphere of vital interests. Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?
I worked for intel back in the early 00s, they had wafer plants here (San Jose). A few years after I left, I saw they moved their wafer production to I think Israel. In 90s we made 38% of all chips here in the US. In 2021 I think we make 12%. Looks like Intel is retooling chip manufacturing in Arizona soon.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know

I believe the government is encouraging / partnering with Intel on that, correct? We should: It's a national security issue. We need to identify areas of manufacturing, mining, etc. in which we can't just cede everything to foreign countries, even if it costs us extra.
MinotStateBeav
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Big C said:

MinotStateBeav said:

Big C said:


It bothered me to see Putin and Xi Jinping practically making out the other day on TV. Looks like we're going back to Cold War days, but with a slightly different alignment (pretty close though, actually).

Saw 60 Minutes last Sunday (I'm not quite that old, but I always used to watch it with my dad, so it's sort of a tradition): Segment on how we absolutely need to really, really build up our naval forces because China/Taiwan. Total propaganda for, what, the defense industry and neo-cons? This stuff is crazy. Leadership is absolutely crazy. The vast, vast majority of people in any of these countries don't want these nutty wars and don't care who Ukraine and Taiwan "belong to".

I am in favor of the US having a strong, but reasonable defense. Sure, let's help Ukraine and Taiwan, but they are not part of our sphere of vital interests. Microchips? I'm pretty sure we can make our own. Am I being naive today?
I worked for intel back in the early 00s, they had wafer plants here (San Jose). A few years after I left, I saw they moved their wafer production to I think Israel. In 90s we made 38% of all chips here in the US. In 2021 I think we make 12%. Looks like Intel is retooling chip manufacturing in Arizona soon.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/new-us-fabs-everything-we-know

I believe the government is encouraging / partnering with Intel on that, correct? We should: It's a national security issue. We need to identify areas of manufacturing, mining, etc. in which we can't just cede everything to foreign countries, even if it costs us extra.
I don't know, but it is a national security issue. I know a few years ago, the panic about it was hitting the media pretty hard, so the government was aware.
sycasey
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IMO the problem with this thread right now is that not very much has changed in the Ukraine War all winter, as many of us could have predicted would be the case in the cold season. That leaves the floor open for a lot of supposition and guesswork, which the likes of 88 and ML are more than happy to provide.

My attitude is to wait and see what happens in the spring. Maybe we'll have a situation where it's better to cut a deal and let Putin keep the Donbas (however distasteful that may be). Or maybe we won't. None of us really know.

And yes, it's pretty clear that Russia is getting a lot less than what they wanted here. The remaining question is how much less.
movielover
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You're partly correct. They took Soledar, and have control of Bakhmut. If one believes Colonel McGregor and Ritter, they've prioritized grinding down the Ukrainian army, not land acquisition.

Ukraine / NATO are critically low on ammunition and apparently didn't plan on a WWI type war. We've also learned smart weapons are tough to produce, and take time to build. Russia also has a radar / spire that can triangulate and quickly pinpoint a firing location. This is modern warfare - drones locating soldiers for artillery.

Our leadership and judgement is woefully lacking, but we can learn from these mistakes. Abandoning manufacturing and steel production are Achilles heel for us.
oski003
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sycasey said:

IMO the problem with this thread right now is that not very much has changed in the Ukraine War all winter, as many of us could have predicted would be the case in the cold season. That leaves the floor open for a lot of supposition and guesswork, which the likes of 88 and ML are more than happy to provide.

My attitude is to wait and see what happens in the spring. Maybe we'll have a situation where it's better to cut a deal and let Putin keep the Donbas (however distasteful that may be). Or maybe we won't. None of us really know.

And yes, it's pretty clear that Russia is getting a lot less than what they wanted here. The remaining question is how much less.


ML and Cal88 advocated for the US allowing Ukraine to accept ceding the Donbass to Russia to avoid bloodshed months ago.
dajo9
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In 2022, the Democratic Congress passed and Biden signed the CHIPS Act which will boost semiconductor capacity in the U.S. The majority of Republicans voted against it in both chambers of Congress.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-chips-and-science-act-heres-whats-in-it
oski003
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dajo9 said:

In 2022, the Democratic Congress passed and Biden signed the CHIPS Act which will boost semiconductor capacity in the U.S. The majority of Republicans voted against it in both chambers of Congress.

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/the-chips-and-science-act-heres-whats-in-it


Looks like the Republicans were playing politics and lost as they couldn't keep their party in line to not support a generally good bill.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/house/3578779-these-are-the-24-house-republicans-who-broke-with-the-party-to-support-chips-and-science-bill/amp/
sycasey
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oski003 said:

sycasey said:

IMO the problem with this thread right now is that not very much has changed in the Ukraine War all winter, as many of us could have predicted would be the case in the cold season. That leaves the floor open for a lot of supposition and guesswork, which the likes of 88 and ML are more than happy to provide.

My attitude is to wait and see what happens in the spring. Maybe we'll have a situation where it's better to cut a deal and let Putin keep the Donbas (however distasteful that may be). Or maybe we won't. None of us really know.

And yes, it's pretty clear that Russia is getting a lot less than what they wanted here. The remaining question is how much less.


ML and Cal88 advocated for the US allowing Ukraine to accept ceding the Donbass to Russia to avoid bloodshed months ago.

Still don't know why people think this is about what the US will "allow." It has to be the Ukrainians who are willing to cut a deal.
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