The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

870,005 Views | 9916 Replies | Last: 14 hrs ago by bear2034
calpoly
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Cal88 said:

Vodka is glorified rubbing alcohol, tell Vlad to send gold instead.
No gold for you...but you can have a couple of worthless rubles.
Unit2Sucks
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Things are afoot in Ukraine. I expect the disinformation warfare to increase which means lots of ignored posters moving goalposts and spreading lies.

It's not yet clear if we're seeing the start of the counteroffensive or just minor probing attacks to assess Russian weakness, which appears to be everywhere. Between the infighting between Wagner and Russian military, the lack of a functioning command and control structure and logistical support and Russian soldiers' complete disinterest in fighting this war for Putin, it's likely to be a rough road for the mobiks and criminals.

Here is some of what I'm seeing. Lots of fog of war but we haven't seen anything like this for months, so clearly it's evidence of a change in posture.







Good short thread from Hertling.



Prigozhin continues to disagree with Russian propaganda but what does he know compared to the Putin wing Republicans?





tequila4kapp
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calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.
bearister
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Ukraine 'are already breaking through in Bakhmut', Wagner chief admits



https://mol.im/a/12075935
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Cal88
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^They're still losing ground in Bakhmut proper, they've only made small gains to the surroundings in an attempt to clear access roads to the city. Right now the only suply line to Bakhmut for Ukraine is through hevily bombarded dirt roads in the fields, dubbed "the road of life".

Big picture - Ukraine can make some territorial gains if they throw tens of thousands of bodies into that project, along with their current leftover ammo stash and the leftover fleet of EU Leopard 2s into their Spring/summer offensive, but their cupboard will be bare after that. The Russians have opted for a defensive position since last Fall, building layers of fortifications in the south, an option which will favor them in the upcoming battle. They will also plan on a counteroffensive should Ukraine take heavy losses or have difficulty in their logistics under heavy Russian air and artillery bombardment.

According to Macgregor, Ukraine has already lost nearly 10,000 armored vehicles so far in this war. This is pretty much the entire fleet they started the war with, along with the vehicles donated by their former Warsaw Pact , EU and 5 Eyes allies. It's the equivalent of a convoy of armored vehicles stretching from San Jose to Bakersfield...



This kind of gives you an indication of how the war has really been going, the fact that the Russians have been able to take out Ukraine's main land army assets to that extent doesn't bode well for Ukraine, particularly given that Russian capacities have dramatically improved from last year with the use of a whole range of drones and guided gliding bombs.
dimitrig
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bearister said:

Ukraine 'are already breaking through in Bakhmut', Wagner chief admits
https://mol.im/a/12075935


Cal88 reaction:




Cal88
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Never go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line, and never get involved in a land war in Eurasia!

In any case, here is the latest 3min Bakhmut front snapshot:


And here is HistoryLegends new instalment on Ukraine's Spring Offensive:
DiabloWags
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movielover said:

BearHunter said:



Memes aren't simplistic. The left can't meme.


Their sense of humor is rare. They seem to thrive more on victimhood, identity politics, and anger.

You seem terribly unhappy and full of anger.
You prove that EVERY DAY here.
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
Cal88
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^Not so much on Tuesdays.
calbear93
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bearister said:

Ukraine 'are already breaking through in Bakhmut', Wagner chief admits



https://mol.im/a/12075935
It will be interesting to see if Wagner survives post Ukraine war. He may be a useful idiot now for Putin but Putin usually doesn't take kindly to criticism. Maybe Wagner is pushing to be the next President but not seeing a lot of path forward for him under Putin's rule following the war.
oski003
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Cal88 said:

^Not so much on Tuesdays.


MovieLover needs to buy a Porsche to prove how happy he is. ML, pictures or it didn't happen, and you are still unhappy, obviously.
Cal88
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calbear93 said:

bearister said:

Ukraine 'are already breaking through in Bakhmut', Wagner chief admits



https://mol.im/a/12075935
It will be interesting to see if Wagner survives post Ukraine war. He may be a useful idiot now for Putin but Putin usually doesn't take kindly to criticism. Maybe Wagner is pushing to be the next President but not seeing a lot of path forward for him under Putin's rule following the war.

Wagner will definitely be around, if only as an intervention force abroad. They have been very active and highly effective in Africa notably, with a presence in over a dozen African countries, notably in Mali, Central African Rep. and Burkina Faso, tipping the balance in civil wars across the Sahel.

The other use of Wagner is as a reforming agent in the modernization of the Russian army.

Back to Ukraine, this is a very good rundown of the latest Bakhmut developments, from an anti-Putin Russian vlogger:
movielover
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oski003 said:

With all that being said, we have learned two things:
1) Outside of Crimea and the Donbass, Russia doesn't have the support that they seemingly counted on when the war started; and

What support are you alluding to? They're ramped up internally, are approaching 900,000 trained and outfitted military, as well as close relationships with Iran and China.

2) If the USA and Russia were actually at war, the USA would annihilate Russia. -- Please elaborate how we would do this. Thank you.

Right now, NATO can mostly keep Russia in check by just supplying Ukraine money, intelligence, and weapons.

Of note, I assumed when this started that Russia would be able to take over the Ukrainian skies. That was far from the truth. Cal88 attributes this to Russian AA (which Ukraine has but apparently is finally running out of) being a huge threat to all aircraft. I suppose that could be true. However, I imagine the US in Russia's shoes would have found ways to take out the AA much much sooner.
movielover
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tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


No, he wants the dying to stop. And in his term we had ZERO new wars while he tried to bring troops home. No new wars like Bush Jr, Obama / Clinton, and Biden.
Cal88
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An open hot war between the US and Russia is inconceivable and should be avoided at all costs given the huge risks of escalation into nuclear MAD. It's funny how people who freak out about a theoretical rise of a global temperatures degree or two over an entire century aren't the least preoccupied by the rising real risks a of nuclear armageddon.

This being said, a war with Russia on their border would not be a cakewalk, For starts, Russia can take out any USN supercarrier in the Mediterranean, north Pacific, west Atlantic with one hypersonic shot, 4,000 sailors and dozens of aircraft lost. They can also crater the Pentagon without using nukes.

In Europe, only the Poles and Balts are stupid enough to want an escalation in the current conflict.
DiabloWags
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movielover said:

tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


No, he wants the dying to stop. And in his term we had ZERO new wars while he tried to bring troops home. No new wars like Bush Jr, Obama / Clinton, and Biden.
Trump couldnt care any less about people dying or getting hurt or maimed.
January 6th proved that in real-time.

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
oski003
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movielover said:

oski003 said:

With all that being said, we have learned two things:
1) Outside of Crimea and the Donbass, Russia doesn't have the support that they seemingly counted on when the war started; and

What support are you alluding to? They're ramped up internally, are approaching 900,000 trained and outfitted military, as well as close relationships with Iran and China.

2) If the USA and Russia were actually at war, the USA would annihilate Russia. -- Please elaborate how we would do this. Thank you.

Right now, NATO can mostly keep Russia in check by just supplying Ukraine money, intelligence, and weapons.

Of note, I assumed when this started that Russia would be able to take over the Ukrainian skies. That was far from the truth. Cal88 attributes this to Russian AA (which Ukraine has but apparently is finally running out of) being a huge threat to all aircraft. I suppose that could be true. However, I imagine the US in Russia's shoes would have found ways to take out the AA much much sooner.



1) Support in Ukraine for Russian occupation.
2) Taking Nukes out of the he equation, it is pretty clear that the Russian army is not as powerful as once thought. If Ukraine can keep them at bay via conventional warfare and drones, USA, which is much stronger, should be able to overrun them. Perhaps, the cost would be great, but Russia surely is struggling in Ukraine.
movielover
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You need to read more, Cal88 could help you.

dimitrig
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movielover said:

tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


No, he wants the dying to stop. And in his term we had ZERO new wars while he tried to bring troops home. No new wars like Bush Jr, Obama / Clinton, and Biden.


What new wars have we had under Biden?

sycasey
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Russia's military has proven to be maybe the biggest paper tiger of all time.
DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:


Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.

Bingo.
His viewpoint has nothing to do with saving lives.
It's all about money.

Just ask the people of Puerto Rico in 2018 when he tossed out roles of paper towels after getting hit by hurricane Irma . . . and then later complained about having to spend so much $$$ on Puerto Rico.

HUD's Inspector General reported that the Trump Administration delayed more than $20 BILLION in hurricane relief aid for Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria hit the island in 2017, using "bureaucratic obstacles".

These Hurricanes killed thousands of people and left them without electricity or water for months.
Maybe Trump didnt think that Puerto Rico was a U.S. territory.



Trump delayed $20bn in aid to Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria, report finds | Hurricane Maria | The Guardian
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
DiabloWags
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sycasey said:

Russia's military has proven to be maybe the biggest paper tiger of all time.

Putin88 in 3....2....1
"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
dimitrig
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sycasey said:

Russia's military has proven to be maybe the biggest paper tiger of all time.


They are just holding back their full might.

Or is it that they are actually fighting against NATO which isn't fair?

Or is it that they are winning bigly but Western propaganda won't report on that?

I can't keep it straight. All I know is that it is all going according to plan.

DiabloWags
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Right?

It's all going to Plan.

Hahahahahahahaaaaaaa!

"Cults don't end well. They really don't."
oski003
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movielover said:

You need to read more, Cal88 could help you.




I've read plenty. I agree with many of his points, but I don't believe everything he writes hook, line and sinker.
movielover
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dimitrig said:

sycasey said:

Russia's military has proven to be maybe the biggest paper tiger of all time.


They are just holding back their full might.

Or is it that they are actually fighting against NATO which isn't fair?

Or is it that they are winning bigly but Western propaganda won't report on that?

I can't keep it straight. All I know is that it is all going according to plan.




I guess Winnie the Pooh killed 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the most fierce ground battle since WWII?
movielover
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dimitrig said:

movielover said:

tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


No, he wants the dying to stop. And in his term we had ZERO new wars while he tried to bring troops home. No new wars like Bush Jr, Obama / Clinton, and Biden.


What new wars have we had under Biden?




We have a proxy war with Russia where we call the shots, provide the $$$, military, intell, training, ammo, and best of all ... the Biden Administration has put the use of nuclear weapons back on the table.
dimitrig
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movielover said:

dimitrig said:

movielover said:

tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


No, he wants the dying to stop. And in his term we had ZERO new wars while he tried to bring troops home. No new wars like Bush Jr, Obama / Clinton, and Biden.


What new wars have we had under Biden?




We have a proxy war with Russia where we call the shots, provide the $$$, military, intell, training, ammo, and best of all ... the Biden Administration has put the use of nuclear weapons back on the table.


I think that was Russia's doing and it was just an escalation of a war they were already fighting.

BearHunter
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dimitrig said:

movielover said:

dimitrig said:

movielover said:

tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


No, he wants the dying to stop. And in his term we had ZERO new wars while he tried to bring troops home. No new wars like Bush Jr, Obama / Clinton, and Biden.


What new wars have we had under Biden?




We have a proxy war with Russia where we call the shots, provide the $$$, military, intell, training, ammo, and best of all ... the Biden Administration has put the use of nuclear weapons back on the table.


I think that was Russia's doing and it was just an escalation of a war they were already fighting.



Proxy wars can be so entangling.
bearister
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Methinks the head of the Wagner Group has either red eyes, painful tearing and peeling skin on his face and hands or a Hans Gruber experience out of a window in a tall building in his near future.

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Unit2Sucks
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Today's update.

First - some debate about Ukrainian casualties. Ukraine insists the US is overestimating casualties but Russian shills believe the casualties are 30x or more what the US has estimated lol. At some point the propagandists will project more casualties than people in Ukraine.



More evidence we are in the pre-offensive shaping phase.



LOL with all of the propaganda about Russia's hypersonic missiles, it looks like our decades old patriot system can take them down.



And now Ukraine has some of our MALDs to help defeat Russia's air defense.



Finally a reminder that Russia continues to be the biggest weapons donor in Ukraine. Maybe that's why the victory day parades didn't have anything to show.



dajo9
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Russian terrorist Prighozin continues to insist on Russian retreat in the Battle of Reverse Stalingrad
blungld
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tequila4kapp said:

calpoly said:

BearHunter said:


Only an idiot would believe this post.
Two parts to the post

24 Hours - obvious hyperbole. Translate to "quickly" and the verdict becomes a definite Yes.

Wants people to stop dying - Maybe, but more likely it's an example of how the "America First" crowd is fundamentally Isolationist (stupidly, IMO, cavalierly ignoring the repeated major lessons about Isolationism from the 20th century). I think it's more likely Trump is indifferent to the war but just doesn't want the US paying for it. He's very transactional…find a way for US business interests to profit or for US jobs to be created from it and he will suddenly be disinterested in those lost Ukrainian / Russian lives.


The only way Trump could impact this war is with total capitulation to Russia. I don't see that as American, Democratic, ethical, or peace keeping. That is aiding and abetting an enemy and making our future less secure and sentencing millions of Ukrainians to death and political persecution. You can call that a win in your simplistic pro-authoritarian, Trump-is-always-right world view. I would see as a complete failing and a grave loss to our standing in the world and any shreds of our moral standing.
Unit2Sucks
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dajo9 said:

Russian terrorist Prighozin continues to insist on Russian retreat in the Battle of Reverse Stalingrad


Exactly. This is yet another reason that Russia has done so poorly and will continue to lose a war that their propaganda claims to be winning.

In addition to having no functional command and control or cohesive strategy, they would need to overcome internal strife.

just like we saw with the Soviet regime, Putin rewards loyalty above capability which means the various elements are more interested in fighting each other for power than in accomplishing whatever it is that they think they are doing in Ukraine.

Even if all of the propaganda were true (which it's not), the shills continue to ignore that the corrupt kakistocracy created by Putin will prevent Russia from achieving victory. This debacle will continue until Putin is forced to admit defeat.







The Russian information sphere is rife with people freaking out about how poorly things are going. They are trying to stem panic but it's clear they are in fact panicked. Don't believe the propaganda that is sure to appear in this thread.



oski003
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Unit2Sucks said:

dajo9 said:

Russian terrorist Prighozin continues to insist on Russian retreat in the Battle of Reverse Stalingrad


Exactly. This is yet another reason that Russia has done so poorly and will continue to lose a war that their propaganda claims to be winning.

In addition to having no functional command and control or cohesive strategy, they would need to overcome internal strife.

just like we saw with the Soviet regime, Putin rewards loyalty above capability which means the various elements are more interested in fighting each other for power than in accomplishing whatever it is that they think they are doing in Ukraine.

Even if all of the propaganda were true (which it's not), the shills continue to ignore that the corrupt kakistocracy created by Putin will prevent Russia from achieving victory. This debacle will continue until Putin is forced to admit defeat.







The Russian information sphere is rife with people freaking out about how poorly things are going. They are trying to stem panic but it's clear they are in fact panicked. Don't believe the propaganda that is sure to appear in this thread.






Russia is in control of more than 25% of Ukrainian territory. It takes a certain useful idiot NATO propagandist spouting a firehood of falsehoods to make the claim that they will "continue to lose a war" under these circumstances.
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