The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Cal88
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BearHunter said:

Cal88 said:

How Russia is winning the war - the Lancet drone:

The Lancet is a homemade loitering drone program which the Russians perfected during the war. It is the most efficient drone system in the world today, with a range of up to 70km and capable of destroying fast-moving vehicles. It is mass-produced in a giant plant with a unit cost around $10k - $15k.

In the 9min compilation above, the Russians destroyed nearly half a billion dollars' worth of equipment at a cost of less than a million $'s worth of Lancets. This weapon system is one of the reasons Russia is winning the war of attrition.

Are there any defenses against the Russian Lancet drone? Doesn't Ukraine have similar capabilities against Russian assets on the ground? I don't see a future in tank warfare with these things flying around in the air. Poland is buying hundreds of tanks and howitzers from South Korea after donating their own equipment to Ukraine.

I would have thought that the Gepard and other similar smart flak platforms would be able to do the job, if they're positioned close enough, but that was one of the vehicles taken out in that compilation above, maybe the Russian jammed it?

This being said, the Lancet has a low radar signature, body made up of light composites, and its profile, if it's homing in on a target is not much larger than a softball, diving in at up to 200mph.
Cal88
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dimitrig said:

Cal88 said:

So are you of the opinion that they still have a few hundred thousands more to go until they get to the last Ukrainian?

The Ukrainians will decide what they want to do

Why do you hate Ukraine?

Who is doing the "deciding" here, Tory effin Nuland?

Just who's doing the deciding for these guys?!?









bearister
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Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 480 of the invasion


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/18/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-480-of-the-invasion?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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Cal88
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bearister said:

Russia-Ukraine war at a glance: what we know on day 480 of the invasion


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/18/russia-ukraine-war-at-a-glance-what-we-know-on-day-480-of-the-invasion?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Day 1, day 480 or day 1,000, this is pretty much what you need to know, published 90 years ago by America's most highly decorated soldier, and just as valid today:



https://archive.org/stream/WarIsARacket/WarIsARacket_djvu.txt




Smedley Butler on Interventionism
-- Excerpt from a speech delivered in 1933, by Major General Smedley Butler, USMC.
Quote:

War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses.

I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. If a nation comes over here to fight, then we'll fight. The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6 percent over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100 percent. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag.

I wouldn't go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.

There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its "finger men" to point out enemies, its "muscle men" to destroy enemies, its "brain men" to plan war preparations, and a "Big Boss" Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism.

It may seem odd for me, a military man to adopt such a comparison. Truthfulness compels me to. I spent thirty- three years and four months in active military service as a member of this country's most agile military force, the Marine Corps. I served in all commissioned ranks from Second Lieutenant to Major-General. And during that period, I spent most of my time being a high class muscle- man for Big Business, for Wall Street and for the Bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism.

I suspected I was just part of a racket at the time. Now I am sure of it. Like all the members of the military profession, I never had a thought of my own until I left the service. My mental faculties remained in suspended animation while I obeyed the orders of higher-ups. This is typical with everyone in the military service.

I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefits of Wall Street. The record of racketeering is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-1912 (where have I heard that name before?). I brought light to the Dominican Republic for American sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to it that Standard Oil went its way unmolested.

During those years, I had, as the boys in the back room would say, a swell racket. Looking back on it, I feel that I could have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.
MinotStateBeav
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Another Great Video by Perun: Length : 1 hour 8 min.

Goldener Bar
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Cal88
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Yesterday might have been the bloodiest day since the start of the war, entire Ukrainian battalions that have advanced into small villages inside the grey zone in front of the first Russian line of defense have been incinerated in a TOS thermobaric fire barrage. The Ukrainians already took large losses getting to the villages, which they managed to occupy after several human waves, and then once they've settled in the whole area was incinerated with thermobaric shells.





Unlike at Bakhmut, which also was largely a one-sided massacre of a battle, NATO will have a harder time hiding the truth about the body count differential in the Spring Counter-offensive, which at this point is well over 10 to 1.

The Ukrainian military is not properly equipped to face its well dug-in Russian counterparts without any air cover, without any answer for the multi-pronged drone and missile standoff arsenal or the sheer volume of artillery fire they would face.

NATO has been pushing Ukraine to conduct this quasi-suicidal frontal attack, partly because of hubris in underestimating Russian capabilities, and partly because they have no skin in the game, with the Ukrainians doing all the dying. NATO neocons pushing hard to have something positive, any kind of a result they can spin into a victory, ahead of the big NATO summit taking place two weeks from now.



Eastern Oregon Bear
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Cal88 said:

Yesterday might have been the bloodiest day since the start of the war, entire Ukrainian battalions that have advanced into small villages inside the grey zone in front of the first Russian line of defense have been incinerated in a TOS barometric fire barrage. The Ukrainians already took large losses getting to the villages, which they managed to occupy after several human waves, and then once they've settled in the whole area was incinerated with barometric shells.
You might want to look up the definition of barometric.
Cal88
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

Cal88 said:

Yesterday might have been the bloodiest day since the start of the war, entire Ukrainian battalions that have advanced into small villages inside the grey zone in front of the first Russian line of defense have been incinerated in a TOS barometric fire barrage. The Ukrainians already took large losses getting to the villages, which they managed to occupy after several human waves, and then once they've settled in the whole area was incinerated with barometric shells.
You might want to look up the definition of barometric.

Thermobaric, same root.
Cal88
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movielover
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Three or four defensive lines. Would it be correct to assume the first line is vehicle barricades of some type?

Colonel McGregor said two days ago that the military leadership of Ukraine should be considered for charges of murder? (For sending their men to certain death.)
movielover
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bearister
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Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
movielover
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Ukraine captures several small "villages", heavy losses.

Cal88
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Cal88 said:



Looks like this NATO official is wrong, the operations in the south and elsewhere have not abated, though the Ukrainians have changed up their tactics a bit, they are now using smaller infantry groups without armored vehicles to attack points in the grey zone, attacks that can best be described as human waves. They are still taking fairly heavy losses.
movielover
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BOMBSHELL?? Russia and Ukraine had a signed peace deal!? Putin claims to have signed receipts.











golden sloth
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movielover said:

BOMBSHELL?? Russia and Ukraine had a signed peace deal!? Putin claims to have signed receipts.














It's not a bombshell, its bull *****

The russian propagandists have a series a narrative alterations they are attempting with this fabrication.
1. The russian military didnt fail in the opening days of the war (they did, but it was a lot closer than people think)
2. Russia wants peace, which is ridiculous because if they want peace they can withdraw at any point. Russia actually only wants peace if it means Ukrainian subjugation.
3. The Ukrainians are pawns of the west and dont control their own destiny. Again this is ridiculous.
4. Makes Zelensky seem untrustworthy, and a bad faith actor. As if he is the villain when a foreign country declares your country as having no right to exist and then invading.

For the record the most uniformed people about the war are the ones following the war via twitter.
movielover
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Disjointed attempt.
Cal88
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golden sloth said:

movielover said:

BOMBSHELL?? Russia and Ukraine had a signed peace deal!? Putin claims to have signed receipts.

It's not a bombshell, its bull *****

The russian propagandists have a series a narrative alterations they are attempting with this fabrication.
1. The russian military didnt fail in the opening days of the war (they did, but it was a lot closer than people think)
2. Russia wants peace, which is ridiculous because if they want peace they can withdraw at any point. Russia actually only wants peace if it means Ukrainian subjugation.
3. The Ukrainians are pawns of the west and dont control their own destiny. Again this is ridiculous.
4. Makes Zelensky seem untrustworthy, and a bad faith actor. As if he is the villain when a foreign country declares your country as having no right to exist and then invading.

For the record the most uniformed people about the war are the ones following the war via twitter.

I'm working today and not juneteenthing (got a business to run) so I won't address these points in detail, but your basic understanding of this war and the geopolitics undergirding it is fairly limited, like much of the people who are driven by the prevailing "Star Wars"-like MSM narrative.

But I'll just say that the events as they have unfolded the last year plus fully support our non-conformist interpretation of the conflict. Almost everything that Macgregor, Swiss colonel Baud, ex Intel officers Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern which the realist faction of BI has relayed here turned out to be true.
golden sloth
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Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

movielover said:

BOMBSHELL?? Russia and Ukraine had a signed peace deal!? Putin claims to have signed receipts.

It's not a bombshell, its bull *****

The russian propagandists have a series a narrative alterations they are attempting with this fabrication.
1. The russian military didnt fail in the opening days of the war (they did, but it was a lot closer than people think)
2. Russia wants peace, which is ridiculous because if they want peace they can withdraw at any point. Russia actually only wants peace if it means Ukrainian subjugation.
3. The Ukrainians are pawns of the west and dont control their own destiny. Again this is ridiculous.
4. Makes Zelensky seem untrustworthy, and a bad faith actor. As if he is the villain when a foreign country declares your country as having no right to exist and then invading.

For the record the most uniformed people about the war are the ones following the war via twitter.

I'm working today and not juneteenthing (got a business to run) so I won't address these points in detail, but your basic understanding of this war and the geopolitics undergirding it is fairly limited, like much of the people who are driven by the prevailing "Star Wars"-like MSM narrative.

But I'll just say that the events as they have unfolded the last year plus fully support our non-conformist interpretation of the conflict. Almost everything that Macgregor, Swiss colonel Baud, ex Intel officers Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern which the realist faction of BI has relayed here turned out to be true.
No your understanding of this war and the geopolitics surrounding is fairly useless, and I don't have time to dive into how everything you have said about the war to date has pretty much been dead wrong, and how you are actually the one that is completely unrealistic and horribly misinformed on the subject.

After all, you have said:
1. The war would be over in a month.
2. The Russians were Nebraska in the 90's and were grinding their way to victory.
3. The initial thunder run on Kyiv was 'the great deception.
4. The initial thunder run on Kyiv was 'a show of force' to push Ukraine to the negotiation table (notice how the same event has now had the narrative changed three times).
5. The Russians were trading land for time with their withdrawals.
6. Al-Jazeera is a pro-western media outlet.
7. Ukraine destroyed the Nova Khakova dam.

Its just really sad when someone refuses to leave their bubble of information and evaluate information from additional sources and third party perspectives. If you did that you might have a more accurate understanding of the war and how Russia is destroying themselves in an attempt to subjugate a foreign country.
Cal88
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golden sloth said:

Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

movielover said:

BOMBSHELL?? Russia and Ukraine had a signed peace deal!? Putin claims to have signed receipts.

It's not a bombshell, its bull *****

The russian propagandists have a series a narrative alterations they are attempting with this fabrication.
1. The russian military didnt fail in the opening days of the war (they did, but it was a lot closer than people think)
2. Russia wants peace, which is ridiculous because if they want peace they can withdraw at any point. Russia actually only wants peace if it means Ukrainian subjugation.
3. The Ukrainians are pawns of the west and dont control their own destiny. Again this is ridiculous.
4. Makes Zelensky seem untrustworthy, and a bad faith actor. As if he is the villain when a foreign country declares your country as having no right to exist and then invading.

For the record the most uniformed people about the war are the ones following the war via twitter.

I'm working today and not juneteenthing (got a business to run) so I won't address these points in detail, but your basic understanding of this war and the geopolitics undergirding it is fairly limited, like much of the people who are driven by the prevailing "Star Wars"-like MSM narrative.

But I'll just say that the events as they have unfolded the last year plus fully support our non-conformist interpretation of the conflict. Almost everything that Macgregor, Swiss colonel Baud, ex Intel officers Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern which the realist faction of BI has relayed here turned out to be true.
No your understanding of this war and the geopolitics surrounding is fairly useless, and I don't have time to dive into how everything you have said about the war to date has pretty much been dead wrong, and how you are actually the one that is completely unrealistic and horribly misinformed on the subject.

After all, you have said:
1. The war would be over in a month.
2. The Russians were Nebraska in the 90's and were grinding their way to victory.
3. The initial thunder run on Kyiv was 'the great deception.
4. The initial thunder run on Kyiv was 'a show of force' to push Ukraine to the negotiation table (notice how the same event has now had the narrative changed three times).
5. The Russians were trading land for time with their withdrawals.
6. Al-Jazeera is a pro-western media outlet.
7. Ukraine destroyed the Nova Khakova dam.

Its just really sad when someone refuses to leave their bubble of information and evaluate information from additional sources and third party perspectives. If you did that you might have a more accurate understanding of the war and how Russia is destroying themselves in an attempt to subjugate a foreign country.

My bubble of information is populated by people like Mearsheimer, Jeffrey Sachs, Chomsky and co, not the peddlers of MIC-sponsored feel-good storyboarding factory that you've been exposed to.

-It is Nebraska vs Kansas, it's a war of attrition between two highly unequal parties, and Kansas is already on its third string. Ukraine has lost 300,000 KIAs and about the same wounded or MIA. At this rate, Ukraine's military is going to collapse within 6 to 12 months. The rate has been slower than expected due to Surovikin's conservative approach of limiting Russian casualties.

-The Russians did trade land for time on their withdrawals, they were highly overstretched with less than 200,000 soldiers manning a LOC about 2,000km long. Since then, they've nearly halved the LOC, fortified it and boosted their numbers.

-AlJazeera is a western-aligned media outlet, it is based in Qatar, which is essentially a US protectorate, an emirate with a tiny population and the home of the headquarters of United States Central Command (USCC) and United State Air Force Central Command (USAFCC).

From your perspective AlJazeera is some anti-American Arab network and there is no difference between them and say, Press TV, Iran's main news outlet. AlJazeeras reports on say Syria or Ukraine are aligned with those of the BBC or US networks.

-Ukraine did destroy the dam. They bombed its rim this Summer, using HIMARS, plenty of evidence for that, and they had every motivation to do it again.
movielover
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Pearls to swine, few here are thinking objectively.
Big C
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Cal88 said:

golden sloth said:

movielover said:

BOMBSHELL?? Russia and Ukraine had a signed peace deal!? Putin claims to have signed receipts.

It's not a bombshell, its bull *****

The russian propagandists have a series a narrative alterations they are attempting with this fabrication.
1. The russian military didnt fail in the opening days of the war (they did, but it was a lot closer than people think)
2. Russia wants peace, which is ridiculous because if they want peace they can withdraw at any point. Russia actually only wants peace if it means Ukrainian subjugation.
3. The Ukrainians are pawns of the west and dont control their own destiny. Again this is ridiculous.
4. Makes Zelensky seem untrustworthy, and a bad faith actor. As if he is the villain when a foreign country declares your country as having no right to exist and then invading.

For the record the most uniformed people about the war are the ones following the war via twitter.

I'm working today and not juneteenthing (got a business to run) so I won't address these points in detail, but your basic understanding of this war and the geopolitics undergirding it is fairly limited, like much of the people who are driven by the prevailing "Star Wars"-like MSM narrative.

But I'll just say that the events as they have unfolded the last year plus fully support our non-conformist interpretation of the conflict. Almost everything that Macgregor, Swiss colonel Baud, ex Intel officers Larry Johnson and Ray McGovern which the realist faction of BI has relayed here turned out to be true.

It's Juneteenth and Pride Month and you're working?!? Good thing you're anonymous here, or the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence and the Drag Queen Story Hour Marching Band would be protesting outside your world headquarters.
Cal88
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How many cases of Bud Light will I have to buy to make up for this transgression?
Big C
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Cal88 said:

How many cases of Bud Light will I have to buy to make up for this transgression?

Since they are now selling for pennies on the dollar (Anheuser-Busch now regrets the "born date" idea), I'd say 500,000 cases. Maybe go sell them in red states to use for target practice, but don't come in in a jumper, with painted nails (not that you would).
dajo9
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Cal88 said:

How many cases of Bud Light will I have to buy to make up for this transgression?


We'll never know. You still won't tell us how much alcohol you had to buy over your lost bets on the 2020 election.
Cal88
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

How many cases of Bud Light will I have to buy to make up for this transgression?

Since they are now selling for pennies on the dollar (Anheuser-Busch now regrets the "born date" idea), I'd say 500,000 cases. Maybe go sell them in red states to use for target practice, but don't come in in a jumper, with painted nails (not that you would).

That should keep me properly hydrated till the end of the month.
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

Cal88 said:

How many cases of Bud Light will I have to buy to make up for this transgression?


We'll never know. You still won't tell us how much alcohol you had to buy over your lost bets on the 2020 election.

Lesson learned the hard way - never bet on the election outcome of a banana republic.
MinotStateBeav
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Cal88 said:

dajo9 said:

Cal88 said:

How many cases of Bud Light will I have to buy to make up for this transgression?


We'll never know. You still won't tell us how much alcohol you had to buy over your lost bets on the 2020 election.

Lesson learned the hard way - never bet on the election outcome of a banana republic.
Bring the unregistered firearms. Seems there's discount sentencing going on!!!
movielover
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Edit
Cal88
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Back to the "Spring Counteroffensive" news, at the beginning of the third week Ukraine has lost nearly 10,000 soldiers, a good chunk of its NATO armored vehicle fleet, all for a small dent in the grey zone, never getting to the Russian first line of defense, only to have Russia reveerse those very modest advances the last couple of days.

The Russians have made heavy use of their air force, especially their attack helicopters, with only one KA-52 damaged from well over 100 sorties, in which they can target a tank or AFV uncontested from 8km-10km out.

Over the last year plus, Russia has systematically focused on taking out Ukrainian anti-air S-300, BUK and now Iris, Gepard Patriot and NASAMS platforms in order to step up their air campaign. This, along with improved IR and EW countermeasures for their attack helicopters and Su-25s means that Ukraine is going to have a very difficult time putting together any kind of a successful offensive.

Report from an anti-Putin Russian immigrant war vlogger:

BearHunter
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The Pentagon said Tuesday that it overestimated the value of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the past two years about double early estimates resulting in a surplus that will be used for future security packages. It's so easy spending other people's money.
BearHunter
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BearHunter said:

At some point without them noticing, libs were told by their cult leaders to love war and they obeyed.


Oh, I see...
Big C
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Cal88 said:

Back to the "Spring Counteroffensive" news, at the beginning of the third week Ukraine has lost nearly 10,000 soldiers, a good chunk of its NATO armored vehicle fleet, all for a small dent in the grey zone, never getting to the Russian first line of defense, only to have Russia reveerse those very modest advances the last couple of days.

The Russians have made heavy use of their air force, especially their attack helicopters, with only one KA-52 damaged from well over 100 sorties, in which they can target a tank or AFV uncontested from 8km-10km out.

Over the last year plus, Russia has systematically focused on taking out Ukrainian anti-air S-300, BUK and now Iris, Gepard Patriot and NASAMS platforms in order to step up their air campaign. This, along with improved IR and EW countermeasures for their attack helicopters and Su-25s means that Ukraine is going to have a very difficult time putting together any kind of a successful offensive.

Report from an anti-Putin Russian immigrant war vlogger:



As I am on Ukraine's side in this, I kinda hate to say it, but one sign that the Counteroffensive is not going well for Ukraine is that a broadcast such as PBS NewsHour is reporting that the results are "mixed", or "50/50".
dimitrig
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Big C said:

Cal88 said:

Back to the "Spring Counteroffensive" news, at the beginning of the third week Ukraine has lost nearly 10,000 soldiers, a good chunk of its NATO armored vehicle fleet, all for a small dent in the grey zone, never getting to the Russian first line of defense, only to have Russia reveerse those very modest advances the last couple of days.

The Russians have made heavy use of their air force, especially their attack helicopters, with only one KA-52 damaged from well over 100 sorties, in which they can target a tank or AFV uncontested from 8km-10km out.

Over the last year plus, Russia has systematically focused on taking out Ukrainian anti-air S-300, BUK and now Iris, Gepard Patriot and NASAMS platforms in order to step up their air campaign. This, along with improved IR and EW countermeasures for their attack helicopters and Su-25s means that Ukraine is going to have a very difficult time putting together any kind of a successful offensive.

Report from an anti-Putin Russian immigrant war vlogger:



As I am on Ukraine's side in this, I kinda hate to say it, but one sign that the Counteroffensive is not going well for Ukraine is that a broadcast such as PBS NewsHour is reporting that the results are "mixed", or "50/50".


To be honest, it was ill-conceived.

Ukraine's biggest advantage is being able to be on the defensive in well prepared fortifications on home ground.

Russia's army is bigger and better equipped so you cannot go toe to toe with them.

Dig in and make them come at you. That is how they held Bakhmut for so long.

Maybe if there was an element of surprise to the offensive it might be effective but it had been well advertised. I am not sure I understand the point of it except to maybe probe Russia's strength and try to exploit some unknown weaknesses.

I suppose that if they don't go on the offensive at some point it will become a stalemate so maybe they felt they had to do something to try to strengthen their negotiating power.

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