The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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Cal88
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10:30a, 7/26/23
Schneller!!!

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Cal88
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 11:21a, 7/26/23
Unit2Sucks said:
Here's a great essay in Foreign Affairs about Putin's options 500 plus days into his 3 day war.
Quote:
blah blah blah
Although we are still seeing slow, grinding progress in the offensive, Ukraine has retaken almost as much land in the last month plus as Russia has in all of 2023 and Ukraine still hasn't deployed their top brigades. It's hard to imagine Russia's offensive capabilities increasing without Wagner so I expect them to continue to focus on destroying Ukraine's civil infrastructure (including historical districts and heritage like in Odessa) and do their best to make it hard for Ukraine to recover once the war is over and Russia is forced to retreat.

Although the shills love to focus on Ukraine's mobilization efforts, Russia continues to struggle and recognizes they may have to fight to the last Russian in order to maintain this corrupt criminal invasion.

There is an endless parade of videos from mobilized Russians complaining to the tsar about their conditions (this is a long tradition in Russia - see here for more detail). This isn't propaganda and it's not made up - these are actual videos of orcs and loved ones complaining.

As always, be prepared for a vigorous propaganda response fed from the never-ending supply that is being industriously created by the Kremlin. I recently learned about a POW who talked about how he was forced to create Putin's propaganda while in captivity. He just released a book as well. Here's another recent example where the UN concluded that Russia's propaganda about Ukrainian HIMARS causing an explosion which led to the deaths of 50 POWs was false. There were numerous instances like this which I noticed in this thread before I availed myself of the ignore function.

I guess the good news for Putin is that a few years ago he rammed through a new law to provide himself for lifetime immunity for any and all crimes he commits - whether before, during or after his time in office. Trump must be incredibly jealous that Putin both got away with billions in grift (perhaps as much as $200B) and has complete immunity from domestic legal process. Hopefully for the benefit of the Russian people he will one day be forced to pay for his crimes and they will regain some of the huge amounts of dosh that he and his Oligarch cronies have liberated from the pockets of Russian workers.

OK, here we go, quickly, because I've got some work to do today.

Quote:
Ukraine has retaken almost as much land in the last month plus as Russia has in all of 2023 and Ukraine still hasn't deployed their top brigades.

-This conveniently does not account for the recent Russian advances, 8km deep, into the northern front towards Lyman:


-Russia did not bomb cultural or non-military sites in Odessa, the hit on the Orthodox church was from a Ukrainian anti-air missile failing to hit its target and landing back on the city center.

-The very small gains made by Ukraine in the southern front came at a cost of over 26,000 casualties, and the loss of a third of the NATO material the've been accumulating for the past 6 month+, including about 30 Leopard tanks and several dozen Bradleys (source:NYT, WaPO, see video 2pg ago).

-Ukraine's forced mobilization age has been 16 to 60+ since last year. This is a classic pattern in your post, trying to point out to alleged Russian weaknesses while completely ignoring the situation on the other side, which is invariably much worse. In terms of human resources, this is a war between a country with a population base of 17M-18M vs one with 150M.

-Putin has been and still is an extremely popular leader at home, his rating varies between 65% and 85%, mostly because he has significantly clamped down on corruption and created wealth for the average Russian while restoring social order. Little-known fact about Putin: he has a PhD in economics, and wrote his thesis on the infrastructure development of resource-based economies.



And this is how his performance vs Ukraine's compares:

Ukraine has lingered at the very bottom of Europe in terms of GDP per capita, because they never got rid of their corrupt oligarchs, from which their current political class rose. Zelensky for instance was a protege of one of the worst Ukrainian oligarchs, Kolomoisky.
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dimitrig
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In reply to Cal88 • 11:38a, 7/26/23
Cal88 said:
Unit2Sucks said:
Here's a great essay in Foreign Affairs about Putin's options 500 plus days into his 3 day war.
Quote:
blah blah blah
Although we are still seeing slow, grinding progress in the offensive, Ukraine has retaken almost as much land in the last month plus as Russia has in all of 2023 and Ukraine still hasn't deployed their top brigades. It's hard to imagine Russia's offensive capabilities increasing without Wagner so I expect them to continue to focus on destroying Ukraine's civil infrastructure (including historical districts and heritage like in Odessa) and do their best to make it hard for Ukraine to recover once the war is over and Russia is forced to retreat.

Although the shills love to focus on Ukraine's mobilization efforts, Russia continues to struggle and recognizes they may have to fight to the last Russian in order to maintain this corrupt criminal invasion.

There is an endless parade of videos from mobilized Russians complaining to the tsar about their conditions (this is a long tradition in Russia - see here for more detail). This isn't propaganda and it's not made up - these are actual videos of orcs and loved ones complaining.

As always, be prepared for a vigorous propaganda response fed from the never-ending supply that is being industriously created by the Kremlin. I recently learned about a POW who talked about how he was forced to create Putin's propaganda while in captivity. He just released a book as well. Here's another recent example where the UN concluded that Russia's propaganda about Ukrainian HIMARS causing an explosion which led to the deaths of 50 POWs was false. There were numerous instances like this which I noticed in this thread before I availed myself of the ignore function.

I guess the good news for Putin is that a few years ago he rammed through a new law to provide himself for lifetime immunity for any and all crimes he commits - whether before, during or after his time in office. Trump must be incredibly jealous that Putin both got away with billions in grift (perhaps as much as $200B) and has complete immunity from domestic legal process. Hopefully for the benefit of the Russian people he will one day be forced to pay for his crimes and they will regain some of the huge amounts of dosh that he and his Oligarch cronies have liberated from the pockets of Russian workers.

OK, here we go, quickly, because I've got some work to do today.

Quote:
Ukraine has retaken almost as much land in the last month plus as Russia has in all of 2023 and Ukraine still hasn't deployed their top brigades.

-This conveniently does not account for the recent Russian advances, 8km deep, into the northern front towards Lyman:


-Russia did not bomb cultural or non-military sites in Odessa, the hit on the Orthodox church was from a Ukrainian anti-air missile failing to hit its target and landing back on the city center.

-The very small gains made by Ukraine in the southern front came at a cost of over 26,000 casualties, and the loss of a third of the NATO material the've been accumulating for the past 6 month+, including about 30 Leopard tanks and several dozen Bradleys (source:NYT, WaPO, see video 2pg ago).

-Ukraine's forced mobilization age has been 16 to 60+ since last year. This is a classic pattern in your post, trying to point out to alleged Russian weaknesses while completely ignoring the situation on the other side, which is invariably much worse. In terms of human resources, this is a war between a country with a population base of 17M-18M vs one with 150M.

-Putin has been and still is an extremely popular leader at home, his rating varies between 65% and 85%, mostly because he has significantly clamped down on corruption and created wealth for the average Russian while restoring social order. Little-known fact about Putin: he has a PhD in economics, and wrote his thesis on the infrastructure development of resource-based economies.



And this is how his performance vs Ukraine's compares:

Ukraine has lingered at the very bottom of Europe in terms of GDP per capita, because they never got rid of their corrupt oligarchs, from which their current political class rose. Zelensky for instance was a protege of one of the worst Ukrainian oligarchs, Kolomoisky.

This response boils down to:




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Cal88
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12:01p, 7/26/23
It is a very valid point though, criticizing the other guy when you are hiding that your situation is objectively 3 times worse is a form of disinformation.

More on the Russian advances in the northern fronts:


The strategy here in the north, using the topography, appears to be to squeeze Ukrainian units in the enclave east of the Oskil River, shown above on the left end of the map.
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movielover
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1:41p, 7/26/23
Firehose of Falsehoods = Projection 101
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Cal88
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2:21p, 7/26/23
Full thread above expanded:

The Russian Army just blasted open a 12-kilometer hole in the Ukrainian front line and captured more terrain in a week than Ukraine has in the last two months of their counteroffensive.

Let's talk about it.

This is part of a general Russian push in Lugansk north of the Seversky Donets river that has been going on for about the last two weeks. Smaller gains have been reported in the far north near Kupyansk as well as in the Serebryanski Forest along the river to the south.

It's noteworthy that "O Group" - the same Central Military District grouping that seized the Liman area last spring - has suddenly resurfaced in reporting from the front.

They're probably quite familiar with the terrain.

This push started small, with a modest bridgehead forced over the Zherebets River (a small water obstacle along which part of the front has run for the last several months) around July 17th.

The initial lodgment was tiny (about 2x2km), but the Russians kept up the pressure.

On July 19th - two days after establishing the initial bridgehead - the Russians forced another, smaller one a couple kilometers north.

This gave them some additional room to work with and endangered Ukrainian positions now caught between the two pincers.

By July 22nd additional attacks had expanded the northern bridgehead about two kilometers west, to the point the crossing site was no longer under serious threat from direct fire.

At this point the Ukrainian defenses in the area began buckling, despite reserves being sent in.

On July 23rd the Russians managed to link up both bridgeheads and start pushing west. Ukrainian forces began retreating as their flanks were exposed and they were threatened with encirclement.

The Russians forced another small bridgehead 5km north the next day.


This small bridgehead developed into a large thrust yesterday, gaining more terrain in a matter of hours than had been seized in the entire weeklong battle to that point.

Although fierce fighting developed further south, there seems to have been little resistance to this attack.

I expect the Russians will continue developing this attack into a general push to the Oskol River, which will set conditions to easily move on eastern Kharkov and western Donetsk oblasts as the Ukrainian counteroffensive peters out.

Which, speaking of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it's noteworthy that the Ukrainians do not seem to have effectively responded to this breakthrough yet.

I suspect they have two interrelated problems:

1. Their most combat-capable brigades have been mauled during ongoing and very unsuccessful offensives in Zaporozhe and on the Bakhmut flanks.

While there are probably a couple elite brigades in deep reserve (we haven't seen Challenger 2s yet), deploying them would uncover Kiev.


2. Their "line" brigades are by now filled with poor-quality conscripts and badly underequipped - the kind of units the Wehrmacht would classify as "fit only for defensive operations" where they can shelter in fixed fortifications. They will fare poorly in mobile warfare.

So how are the Russians doing this? I've seen no evidence of any new tactics or huge reserves introduced - they seem to be simply applying their now-well honed tactical methods on a large scale to seize lots of ground.

I did a related thread earlier:
Unroll available on Thread Reader

It's very noteworthy just how low-key and competently-done this attack has been thus far. There have been no movie trailers and no minefield traffic jams - just a methodical, silent push through the Ukrainian defensive line with, as near as I can tell, few Russian losses.


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Big C
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In reply to movielover • 2:36p, 7/26/23
movielover said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
President Trump told Putin if he invaded Ukraine he would launch missiles on Moscow.

Your disingenuous post ccomplish nothing. Both Trump and Democrats competed to see who could be tougher on Putin. You ignore these facts. Trump also sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine; Obama sent pillows.

Ditto for "Big C". "Dumb" Putin has a stockpile of ammunition and tanks, superior integrated air
defenses, new partnerships with Iran (drones) and China, and an enviable manufacturing base. Meanwhile, "smart" NATO / US (Rome) has run out of ammo, and after 18 months still hasn't come up with a "surge capacity".

According to Colonel McGregor, our Military of 1991 was far superior. We've gone backwards, and we didn't even allow Billions of dollars spent in / for Ukraine to be audited, a clear sign of massive graft.

Oh stop.

1. Everybody knows Putin owns Trump. Everybody knows that.

2, "Dumb" is an insult with many meanings that gets tossed around casually (like I did). What's dumb about Putin is the decision he made to attack Ukraine, which has basically no upside for Russia, but great cost. Okay, somebody is going to counter that with an asinine argument like "Russia has basically no unemployment now!" LOL.


"No upside for Russia":

1. Currently has 20% of Ukraine.
2. The most valuable 20%.
3. Gained 2 Million citizens.
4. Now the world's strongest Military?
5. Military expanded and upgraded.
6. Expanded relationships w Iran and China.
7. Ukraine on life support.
8. NATO / America humbled, military stockpiles depleted.
Etc.

The vast majority of your 8-point+ reply is either untrue, or actually a downside. Only upside I could possibly see is some Black Sea access (your 2nd point).

Just dealing with one of the points (#s 4-5 combined):

So, their military is stronger now? First, it was revealed to be overrated and now it is also depleted and decimated. LOL, that is ridiculous. Didn't know you were such a Russophile.
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Big C
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In reply to 7 • 2:46p, 7/26/23
10% For The Big Guy said:
Big C said:

Oh stop.

Everybody knows Putin owns Trump. Everybody knows that.
Based on what? Name me some benefit Trump ever gave Russia while in office?

Everybody that knows that Putin owns Trump also knew that the origin of COVID had to be natural origin as well? Why? Same reason. Their leaders told them to believe it despite zero supporting evidence.

You want to believe them again, go for it. And yes, that makes you dumb or at least credulous.

That joint press conference where, when asked about possible election interference, Trump says that Putin told him they weren't involved and he "had no reason not to believe him".

And I'm sure there's more, because everybody knows Putin owns trump. Everybody. The Rooskies were really going to collect during Trump's second term, if only they had cheated enough... sad.


That the COVID virus may have come from the lab in Wuhan was always a credible possibility and to say otherwise at the time was either naive, political or both, but we are talking about two different issues.
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Cal88
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In reply to Big C • 2:52p, 7/26/23
Big C said:
movielover said:


"No upside for Russia":

1. Currently has 20% of Ukraine.
2. The most valuable 20%.
3. Gained 2 Million citizens.
4. Now the world's strongest Military?
5. Military expanded and upgraded.
6. Expanded relationships w Iran and China.
7. Ukraine on life support.
8. NATO / America humbled, military stockpiles depleted.
Etc.

The vast majority of your 8-point+ reply is either untrue, or actually a downside. Only upside I could possibly see is some Black Sea access (your 2nd point).

Just dealing with one of the points (#s 4-5 combined):

So, their military is stronger now? First, it was revealed to be overrated and now it is also depleted and decimated. LOL, that is ridiculous. Didn't know you were such a Russophile.

Russia's military is definitely stronger now than it was 2 years ago, no question. Their casualties to date have been relatively limited, around 30k-50k, about 10% of their current roster, which is set to double this year with the next round of enlistments.

Their total losses in tanks are equivalent to one year of production at the current prodn rates. They have ramped up their production substantially across the board (tanks, shells, drones, missiles etc). They're doing this while still sparing their regular economy, set to grow at a 2% rate.. Their air force is largely intact, and they have equipped their choppers with effective IR countermeasures that have neutralized manpads.

Russia went to a total noob in drone warfare to the world leader in the span of 18 months, their late model Lancets have been highly effective yet cheap to mass-produce. Their electronic warfare arsenal is the best in the world (see Eric Schmidt's assessment a page ago), as are their anti-air systems. They've also come up with useful new weapons that have had a strong impact, like their "Agriculture" remote mining system, which has wreaked havoc with Ukrainian Counteroffensive columns. They're also the world leaders in hypersonic weapons.
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Big C
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In reply to Cal88 • 2:59p, 7/26/23
^^^ absolutely wrong... defies all common sense (and took less than one line of space to refute) ^^^
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Cal88
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In reply to Big C • 3:09p, 7/26/23
Big C said:
^^^ absolutely wrong... defies all common sense (and took less than one line of space to refute) ^^^

It doesn't defy common sense, but it does defy the common narrative, big time, I'll give you that, but the two should not be conflated.

Which item in my post above you think is wrong?
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golden sloth
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In reply to Cal88 • 3:33p, 7/26/23
Cal88 said:
Big C said:
^^^ absolutely wrong... defies all common sense (and took less than one line of space to refute) ^^^

It doesn't defy common sense, but it does defy the common narrative, big time, I'll give you that, but the two should not be conflated.

Which item in my post above you think is wrong?


Pretty much everything you and your brethren post is horribly, horribly wrong. It's not worth the time to correct.
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blungld
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In reply to Cal88 • 3:45p, 7/26/23
Cal88 said:
Meanwhile, you haven't responded to any of my questions above, which weren't rhetorical. Here's a second attempt:

  • Should Ukraine continue to fight a war of attrition it is almost certain to lose? For how long?
  • Do you believe that most new conscripts are willingly drafted?
  • Wouldn't Ukraine have been better off just abiding by Minsk Agreements, or signing a peace deal conceding Crimea, the Donbass and the land bridge to Russia, and adopting neutrality back in March 22, 16 months and 200,000+ Ukrainian lives ago?
  • How many more lives are needed until they start working on a realistic and reasonable settlement?
  • Should Ukrainians in the south and east be allowed to use their own language in their media, education system, businesses and public administration without any prejudice?
  • Should all monuments and urban thoroughfares recently built and named to the glory of the OUN/UPA be destroyed, abolished, renamed and the dozens of WW2-era figures they honor be publicly and officially repudiated by the Ukrainian government and local officials? Should the nationalist ideology be modified to include minorities?
Here let me help you out, the answer to many of these questions is "I don't know." And, I will add, nether do you.

Most of these "beg the question." They have your subjective conclusion baked into them. Should Ukraine fight a war of attrition they are sure to lose? What a dumb ass question. It's not for me to decide. The Ukrainians should DEFEND themselves against invasion for as long as they seem to fit to do so and there is no guarantee that they will lose or what their losses will be and if they make the sacrifice "worth it." Let me try asking the same question in reverse: "Should Russia continue to sacrifice the lives of their citizens for a pointless war that they initiated for unjustified and unethical reasons?"

Most of the other questions are derivative and fail to acknowledge the basic fundamental tenet that all of this is started by Russia for economic and territorial gains (and Putin's ego) and all the "objective" analysis and historical back tracking can't wash away the stench of an unjustified invasion. The blood is on Russia's hands and I have nothing but emotional and financial support for Ukraine's self-determination, choices on how they proceed, and the lengths to which they are willing to go to preserve and create the democratic, western-friendly nation they had rightfully created.

You should at least attempt to hold Russia to the same standards you apparently hold Ukraine to and quit with the selective judgment of pockets of Ukrainian society as if this absolves Russian aggression, and authoritarian hypocrisy.
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sycasey
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In reply to Big C • 5:23p, 7/26/23
Big C said:
movielover said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
President Trump told Putin if he invaded Ukraine he would launch missiles on Moscow.

Your disingenuous post ccomplish nothing. Both Trump and Democrats competed to see who could be tougher on Putin. You ignore these facts. Trump also sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine; Obama sent pillows.

Ditto for "Big C". "Dumb" Putin has a stockpile of ammunition and tanks, superior integrated air
defenses, new partnerships with Iran (drones) and China, and an enviable manufacturing base. Meanwhile, "smart" NATO / US (Rome) has run out of ammo, and after 18 months still hasn't come up with a "surge capacity".

According to Colonel McGregor, our Military of 1991 was far superior. We've gone backwards, and we didn't even allow Billions of dollars spent in / for Ukraine to be audited, a clear sign of massive graft.

Oh stop.

1. Everybody knows Putin owns Trump. Everybody knows that.

2, "Dumb" is an insult with many meanings that gets tossed around casually (like I did). What's dumb about Putin is the decision he made to attack Ukraine, which has basically no upside for Russia, but great cost. Okay, somebody is going to counter that with an asinine argument like "Russia has basically no unemployment now!" LOL.


"No upside for Russia":

1. Currently has 20% of Ukraine.
2. The most valuable 20%.
3. Gained 2 Million citizens.
4. Now the world's strongest Military?
5. Military expanded and upgraded.
6. Expanded relationships w Iran and China.
7. Ukraine on life support.
8. NATO / America humbled, military stockpiles depleted.
Etc.

The vast majority of your 8-point+ reply is either untrue, or actually a downside. Only upside I could possibly see is some Black Sea access (your 2nd point).

Just dealing with one of the points (#s 4-5 combined):

So, their military is stronger now? First, it was revealed to be overrated and now it is also depleted and decimated. LOL, that is ridiculous. Didn't know you were such a Russophile.

He didn't just say they were stronger, he claimed "world's strongest." As in, better than the USA. Hilarious!
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Cal88
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In reply to sycasey • 5:49p, 7/26/23
sycasey said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
President Trump told Putin if he invaded Ukraine he would launch missiles on Moscow.

Your disingenuous post ccomplish nothing. Both Trump and Democrats competed to see who could be tougher on Putin. You ignore these facts. Trump also sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine; Obama sent pillows.

Ditto for "Big C". "Dumb" Putin has a stockpile of ammunition and tanks, superior integrated air
defenses, new partnerships with Iran (drones) and China, and an enviable manufacturing base. Meanwhile, "smart" NATO / US (Rome) has run out of ammo, and after 18 months still hasn't come up with a "surge capacity".

According to Colonel McGregor, our Military of 1991 was far superior. We've gone backwards, and we didn't even allow Billions of dollars spent in / for Ukraine to be audited, a clear sign of massive graft.

Oh stop.

1. Everybody knows Putin owns Trump. Everybody knows that.

2, "Dumb" is an insult with many meanings that gets tossed around casually (like I did). What's dumb about Putin is the decision he made to attack Ukraine, which has basically no upside for Russia, but great cost. Okay, somebody is going to counter that with an asinine argument like "Russia has basically no unemployment now!" LOL.


"No upside for Russia":

1. Currently has 20% of Ukraine.
2. The most valuable 20%.
3. Gained 2 Million citizens.
4. Now the world's strongest Military?
5. Military expanded and upgraded.
6. Expanded relationships w Iran and China.
7. Ukraine on life support.
8. NATO / America humbled, military stockpiles depleted.
Etc.

The vast majority of your 8-point+ reply is either untrue, or actually a downside. Only upside I could possibly see is some Black Sea access (your 2nd point).

Just dealing with one of the points (#s 4-5 combined):

So, their military is stronger now? First, it was revealed to be overrated and now it is also depleted and decimated. LOL, that is ridiculous. Didn't know you were such a Russophile.

He didn't just say they were stronger, he claimed "world's strongest." As in, better than the USA. Hilarious!

I would qualify "world's strongest" in terms of fighting a land war on the Eurasian steppes, this is what Russian military doctrine has been entirely geared towards since WW2. To frame this in Bear Insider terms, they are the best team on their home turf. If Russia were to fight the US in say, Spain or Italy, they would lose handily, though they would also land several punches.
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dimitrig
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In reply to Cal88 • 6:08p, 7/26/23
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
President Trump told Putin if he invaded Ukraine he would launch missiles on Moscow.

Your disingenuous post ccomplish nothing. Both Trump and Democrats competed to see who could be tougher on Putin. You ignore these facts. Trump also sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine; Obama sent pillows.

Ditto for "Big C". "Dumb" Putin has a stockpile of ammunition and tanks, superior integrated air
defenses, new partnerships with Iran (drones) and China, and an enviable manufacturing base. Meanwhile, "smart" NATO / US (Rome) has run out of ammo, and after 18 months still hasn't come up with a "surge capacity".

According to Colonel McGregor, our Military of 1991 was far superior. We've gone backwards, and we didn't even allow Billions of dollars spent in / for Ukraine to be audited, a clear sign of massive graft.

Oh stop.

1. Everybody knows Putin owns Trump. Everybody knows that.

2, "Dumb" is an insult with many meanings that gets tossed around casually (like I did). What's dumb about Putin is the decision he made to attack Ukraine, which has basically no upside for Russia, but great cost. Okay, somebody is going to counter that with an asinine argument like "Russia has basically no unemployment now!" LOL.


"No upside for Russia":

1. Currently has 20% of Ukraine.
2. The most valuable 20%.
3. Gained 2 Million citizens.
4. Now the world's strongest Military?
5. Military expanded and upgraded.
6. Expanded relationships w Iran and China.
7. Ukraine on life support.
8. NATO / America humbled, military stockpiles depleted.
Etc.

The vast majority of your 8-point+ reply is either untrue, or actually a downside. Only upside I could possibly see is some Black Sea access (your 2nd point).

Just dealing with one of the points (#s 4-5 combined):

So, their military is stronger now? First, it was revealed to be overrated and now it is also depleted and decimated. LOL, that is ridiculous. Didn't know you were such a Russophile.

He didn't just say they were stronger, he claimed "world's strongest." As in, better than the USA. Hilarious!

I would qualify "world's strongest" in terms of fighting a land war on the Eurasian steppes, this is what Russian military doctrine has been entirely geared towards since WW2. To frame this in Bear Insider terms, they are the best team on their home turf. If Russia were to fight the US in say, Spain or Italy, they would lose handily, though they would also land several punches.


Russia can barely even wage war on its own borders.

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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to dimitrig • 6:25p, 7/26/23
dimitrig said:



Russia can barely even wage war on its own borders.

There is an endless supply of anecdotes of problems with the Russian military - what I've posted over the last year is just the tip of the iceberg.

As you or someone pointed out, whataboutism is idiotic. Ukraine has its own issues but it's the victim in this unprovoked war of aggression and would very much like to not be fighting this war. Ukraine has no choice whereas Putin is choosing to fight a war against a peaceful sovereign neighbor. Russia has no business deflecting to Ukraine when it's done this poorly in a war that it started.

This war is similar to Vietnam, except instead of failing halfway around the world in "defense of democracy" and with a theoretical defense of a vulnerable democracy, Putin is sending young men to die against a peaceable sovereign neighbor with whom his combatants often share kinship and/or family ties, and for which very few of them have any desire to fight. This is a ridiculous war and I see no reason to believe that it will be any more successful than Vietnam was for the US. Vietnam was wrecked, but the US came out looking horrible and achieved nothing. That's very likely to be the ultimate end game here. It's not Ukraine's fault they are being wrecked, regardless of whatever problems they have, it's Putin's for invading Ukraine for nothing. Russia has a much larger population and military capability than Ukraine but nowhere near enough to control Ukraine indefinitely. The sooner Putin and the Kremlin realize there is no long-term possibility of occupation and control, the better everyone will be. But of course they consider the destruction of Ukraine to be a primary aim, more so at this point than any hopes they may have ever had of actually possessing the territory.

Given this backdrop, it's hilarious when I see shills on the internet pretending like we should view Russia and Ukraine symmetrically or that you can defend Russia by pointing to Ukraine's issues. Ukraine is the victim and is not to blame for having to scramble to defend itself. Russia's war effort has been an embarrassment and regardless of near-term outcome has revealed for the world so many of the issues it has developed from being a corrupt autocratic shi(thole kleptocracy.

The world's greatest military wouldn't have these stories:





The world's greatest military wouldn't force teenagers to build weapons and wouldn't need to catfish people:



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sycasey
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In reply to dimitrig • 6:46p, 7/26/23
dimitrig said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
Big C said:
movielover said:
President Trump told Putin if he invaded Ukraine he would launch missiles on Moscow.

Your disingenuous post ccomplish nothing. Both Trump and Democrats competed to see who could be tougher on Putin. You ignore these facts. Trump also sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine; Obama sent pillows.

Ditto for "Big C". "Dumb" Putin has a stockpile of ammunition and tanks, superior integrated air
defenses, new partnerships with Iran (drones) and China, and an enviable manufacturing base. Meanwhile, "smart" NATO / US (Rome) has run out of ammo, and after 18 months still hasn't come up with a "surge capacity".

According to Colonel McGregor, our Military of 1991 was far superior. We've gone backwards, and we didn't even allow Billions of dollars spent in / for Ukraine to be audited, a clear sign of massive graft.

Oh stop.

1. Everybody knows Putin owns Trump. Everybody knows that.

2, "Dumb" is an insult with many meanings that gets tossed around casually (like I did). What's dumb about Putin is the decision he made to attack Ukraine, which has basically no upside for Russia, but great cost. Okay, somebody is going to counter that with an asinine argument like "Russia has basically no unemployment now!" LOL.


"No upside for Russia":

1. Currently has 20% of Ukraine.
2. The most valuable 20%.
3. Gained 2 Million citizens.
4. Now the world's strongest Military?
5. Military expanded and upgraded.
6. Expanded relationships w Iran and China.
7. Ukraine on life support.
8. NATO / America humbled, military stockpiles depleted.
Etc.

The vast majority of your 8-point+ reply is either untrue, or actually a downside. Only upside I could possibly see is some Black Sea access (your 2nd point).

Just dealing with one of the points (#s 4-5 combined):

So, their military is stronger now? First, it was revealed to be overrated and now it is also depleted and decimated. LOL, that is ridiculous. Didn't know you were such a Russophile.

He didn't just say they were stronger, he claimed "world's strongest." As in, better than the USA. Hilarious!

I would qualify "world's strongest" in terms of fighting a land war on the Eurasian steppes, this is what Russian military doctrine has been entirely geared towards since WW2. To frame this in Bear Insider terms, they are the best team on their home turf. If Russia were to fight the US in say, Spain or Italy, they would lose handily, though they would also land several punches.


Russia can barely even wage war on its own borders.


I just don't know how anyone can see this severe underperformance against old NATO equipment in Ukraine and think Russia's military is the strongest at anything. Pure delusion.
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Big C
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In reply to Cal88 • 8:47p, 7/26/23
Cal88 said:
Big C said:
^^^ absolutely wrong... defies all common sense (and took less than one line of space to refute) ^^^

It doesn't defy common sense, but it does defy the common narrative, big time, I'll give you that, but the two should not be conflated.

Which item in my post above you think is wrong?

Cal88, you know I say this with respect...

The first sentence was wrong, so I quickly lost interest after that. Russia has underperformed in the current war, their weapons and manpower are now depleted and the Pentagon has been taking notes as to the capabilities they have shown. Okay, so they can stalemate a smaller country, or even beat them in a war of attrition. Big deal. if it weren't for their nukes and the fear that they might use them indiscriminately, there would be no reason whatsoever to fear Russia. Zero.

Note that I agree with you on some aspects of this war, namely the NATO thing and also the pro-war propaganda that the media feeds Americans.
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Big C
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In reply to 2 • 10:39p, 7/26/23
^^^ Agree that it's hard to find "trusted" sources" nowadays. And I don't have the historical perspective on journalism to know if it was better in the past.

Additionally, with technology, there are many, many more sources, which is why I pretty much ignore the reams of them on this thread. I feel like I have a pretty good background in this area (USSR and after), to where I can at least form my own semi-educated opinion, but there are plenty of areas that I don't know nearly as much about. What then?
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movielover
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10:27a, 7/27/23
WION: Russia unleashes its deadly supersonic onyx missiles on Ukraine

"Not only is Kyiv hampered by a shortage of ammunition but some of the tactics that are now being deployed by the Russians have created serious problems. In the past week, Russia has started to use its anti-ship missiles, such as the p-800 Onyx to strike land targets inside Ukraine. And this has created all kinds of problems for the Ukrainian anti-air defence systems. Yuri Ihnat, the spokesperson of the Ukrainian air force has gone on record to state that Ukraine simply hasn't got the means to guard itself against missiles like the Onyx along its coast. So why is Ukraine getting outgunned at its ports in this stage of the war? Mohammed Saleh gets you the details."

https://www.wionews.com/videos/russia-unleashes-its-deadly-supersonic-onyx-missiles-on-ukraine-619465
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Cal88
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11:48a, 7/27/23
Very good explanation of the ongoing Russian offensive towards the Oskil river. Apparently 100,000 Russian soldiers and 900 tanks have been mobilized for this operation along the northern front, which is an opportunistic attack as the Ukrainians are throwing most of their resources into the southern front.

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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 12:37p, 7/27/23
General Milley (?) yesterday basically admitted we gave UKR cluster bombs bc we have nothing else to give them as a "bridge".

We bought ammunition from [North?] Korea for a premium price, and journalists are now being hit with cluster bombs (?) in UKR.
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Cal88
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1:17p, 7/27/23
Definitely South Korea, not North. Also lots of shells sourced from Pakistan and Egypt. Those however are one-shot deals. Ukraine could have some serious shell shortages later this year.

The three biggest shell inventories in the world are Russia, China and North Korea (not necessarily in that order). Russia hasn't requested large amounts from the other two countries to date, which indicates that they are self-sufficient.
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movielover
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In reply to Cal88 • 1:22p, 7/27/23
This is now a sick, demented suicide mission.

Colonel McGregor claims Ukrainian soldiers surrendering have jumped of late.
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Cal88
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In reply to movielover • 2:16p, 7/27/23
movielover said:
This is now a sick, demented suicide mission.

Colonel McGregor claims Ukrainian soldiers surrendering have jumped of late.

This is what it looks like, columns getting picked off in the span of minutes, over and over again, video from yesterday:





Also, this is how some of it is reported, a Ukrainian tank getting hit by a (Russian) Lancet drone (easily recognizable due to its cruciform wing structure), reported as a Russian tank being hit by a Ukrainian missile:


We're starting to see some accurate reporting nevertheless from western sources:

Ropke is unabashedly pro-Ukrainian, but a straight shooting journo from Germany.
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bearister
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3:23p, 7/27/23
Kyiv forces claim they've recaptured village from Russia in Donetsk



https://mol.im/a/12346103

*
"Submitted for Cal88's approval."
Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to bearister • 7:38p, 7/27/23
bearister said:
Kyiv forces claim they've recaptured village from Russia in Donetsk
There has been a lot of activity the last few days. Ukraine has reportedly made advances across the southern front and Russia claims to have broken through defensive lines in the North. I expect the next week to be feature very intense fighting but we'll see.

It's unclear whether the main part of the counter-offensive is under way or whether we're still mostly seeing shaping operations. US officials seem to be claiming the latter whereas many others are claiming the former.

And, of course, Putin and the Kremlin have intensified their propaganda efforts to downplay Ukraine's efforts because the Kremlin is better at propaganda than war fighting.



Here are some reports about Ukrainian gains:






Also found this tweet about Seymour Hersh being catfished just delightful. For those that don't remember, Hersh has become an outspoken critic of Ukraine and the US and has had article after article spouting Kremlin-friendly tall tales. He's regularly amplified in Russian state media and, to no one's surprise, it looks like he's being fed his misinformation directly from a Russian handler.


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sycasey
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 9:33p, 7/27/23
Unit2Sucks said:
Also found this tweet about Seymour Hersh being catfished just delightful. For those that don't remember, Hersh has become an outspoken critic of Ukraine and the US and has had article after article spouting Kremlin-friendly tall tales. He's regularly amplified in Russian state media and, to no one's surprise, it looks like he's being fed his misinformation directly from a Russian handler.



Bwaaaa-hahahaha!

I'm sure all the people who came after me for being skeptical of Hersh's reporting will be logging their apologies now.
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Unit2Sucks
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In reply to sycasey • 10:09p, 7/27/23
sycasey said:
Unit2Sucks said:
Also found this tweet about Seymour Hersh being catfished just delightful. For those that don't remember, Hersh has become an outspoken critic of Ukraine and the US and has had article after article spouting Kremlin-friendly tall tales. He's regularly amplified in Russian state media and, to no one's surprise, it looks like he's being fed his misinformation directly from a Russian handler.



Bwaaaa-hahahaha!

I'm sure all the people who came after me for being skeptical of Hersh's reporting will be logging their apologies now.
It reminds me of the elevator scene from Die Hard 3 where ze German says it's raining "dogs and cats".


I didn't pay much attention to the Hersh agitprop re Nordstream but it's pretty clear from the quote in the tweet I posted that he's a complete nutjob catering to the pro-Putin extremists. To no one's surprise, he's all over RT, Tass and other Russian state media.

Hard to believe anyone would pretend with a straight face that he's legit but there are people out there who are willing to believe anything that Putin wants them to.

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movielover
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In reply to Unit2Sucks • 10:45a, 7/28/23
So Ukraine lost a third of their new armaments on 'shaping operations'. Gotcha.

As Colonel McGregor and our own Cal88 note, the military is a complex combination. Everyone acknowledges that Russia owns the sky, and 95% plus of Ukraine's drones are taken out. From just this one aspect, Ukraine's forces are sitting ducks for Russian airpower; conversely, Russia's integrated air defense system is the best we've seen. NATO / US / Ukraine aren't fighting goat herders.

On top of this, NATO / USA / Ukraine ran out of ammunition.

Colonel McGregor argues that Putin has purposefully moved cautiously to spare civilian life, to focus on killing military / Azov / Nazis, and to not provoke a direct war with NATO / USA.

The relatively slow winter also allowed Russia to link up with Iran (drones), and ramp up where needed to supply 500,000 new troops.

McGregor claims secret WWII tapes emerged which had Hitler speaking with military leaders. Apparently Germany was unaware of the stockpile of tanks Russia possessed, and Germany fatefully decided not to retreat. I believe he is drawing a parallel with Russias insurmountable stockpile today of 155 artillery.
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Cal88
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In reply to bearister • 11:02a, 7/28/23
bearister said:
Kyiv forces claim they've recaptured village from Russia in Donetsk



https://mol.im/a/12346103

*
"Submitted for Cal88's approval."
I've posted this response to the above earlier this morning, somehow the post disappeared, not sure why, but I have retrieved a copy on another open window:

Surprisingly, it looks like U2S has, for once, given a semi-decent answer. The maps from ISW are usually fairly accurate, with the caveat that they tend to report right away Ukrainian gains and qualify them as permanent while they lad behind a few days in terms of assessing Russian gains. But in a relatively slow-moving war, they are fairly accurate.

The village in question, Staromaiorske, that is claimed to have been captured by Ukraine, sits just inside the greyzone, as shown by the ISW maps above, meaning it is not much of a dent towards the Russian first defensive line. The ultimate Ukrainian goal in this counteroffensive is to break, or at the very least severely disrupt the Crimea land bridge. The main target looks like the hub city of Tokmak, which is halfway to the Sea of Azov from the frontline:


As of today, Ukraine is still holding the village of Staromaiorske, at least its northern edge, as the village is under very heavy bombardment. Ukraine's biggest advance and best result so far however seems to be on the western edge of the Dniepr river frontline, just south of the city of Zaporozhie.

Ukraine has lost 22 tanks in one day on Wednesday, they have really stepped up their attacks on the southern front this week, they're going all in. The first week or two in August will be decisive, they need to show some serious progress towards Tokmak, as they are expending a very high rate of materiel and personnel.

However the challenge for them remains unchanged, storming well-planned densely-mined defensive lines under combined fire from artillery, remote mining systems, drones, ATGMs, gunships, without any kind of air cover - a very tall order. So far 2 months into the Ukrainian offensive, very little progress has been made, Ukraine still hasn't reached the first Russian line of defense despite almost continuous attempts on several locations across the southern front.

Meanwhile the Russians are conducting their first large offensive operation of their own in the north, using the facts that Ukraine has mobilized most of its forces in the southern offensive, and that the northern front towards Lyman does not have heavily fortified defensive positions. Reportedly they are putting 900 tanks and 100,000 men into their northern operations, so far they've been successful pushing forward towards the wide Oskil river.



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dimitrig
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11:18a, 7/28/23

I love how Cal88 posts with such authority about what is going on in the ground in Ukraine.

There are very few, if any, qualifiers used in his statements.

He trusts the accuracy of his Internet sources completely or at least wants us to think so.

That's some dedication. His handlers must be proud.

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Cal88
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In reply to dimitrig • 12:07p, 7/28/23
dimitrig said:

I love how Cal88 posts with such authority about what is going on in the ground in Ukraine.

There are very few, if any, qualifiers used in his statements.

He trusts the accuracy of his Internet sources completely or at least wants us to think so.

That's some dedication. His handlers must be proud.

She is indeed very proud, except when I waste too much time on this site!

Seriously though, there is a lot less uncertainty now, a year and a half into this war. The fog of war has partially lifted, at least for those who aren't viewing the events from an ideologically constrained perspective.

We can see where the frontline is, and how it is moving, because there are about a dozen people covering this from both sides, based on satellite photos and geolocalisation of photos posted online. As well there is a lot of drone footage out there now. We know the range of weapons being used on both sides, what their capacity is, and an approximate idea of their inventory/production levels. There is a lot of footage and analyses published and accessible, especially on Telegram. As well by now we know which pundits are reliable based on their track records.
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blungld
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In reply to dimitrig • 1:31p, 7/28/23
dimitrig said:

I love how Cal88 posts with such authority about what is going on in the ground in Ukraine.

There are very few, if any, qualifiers used in his statements.

He trusts the accuracy of his Internet sources completely or at least wants us to think so.

That's some dedication. His handlers must be proud.

Yes, that is my main problem with his posts. He acts as though he is the sole expert and arbiter of truth instead qualifying with "in my opinion" or "the way I see it" or "I think." He posts in absolutes as though he is a Phd grading papers from 3rd graders. Condescending, poor listener, and no discussion as though we are peers trying to figure things out together. Does not even seem to entertain the possibility he might be wrong or have bad information, or worse, that HE could learn something from others here on the board. It's always from his place on high proclaiming judgements: that is right and that is wrong and here is what will happen inevitably.

If Putin88 weren't such a good fit, I'd opt for Pompous88.
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