The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

938,978 Views | 10272 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by Cal88
Cal88
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bearister said:

Cal88 said:



If true, so be it. Let them determine their own fate on their own terms. Our weapons are useless to a people that don't want to fight or have had enough of it (see Vietnam and Afghanistan).

It's no longer "on their own terms", Ukrainian men are now being forcibly enlisted, and they're even going after men who have left the country, refugees in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Germany etc. There have been many instances in this war where Ukrainian troops that have tried to surrender have been shot in the back by hardcore Banderists.

Most shockingly, there was a recent video made by a squadron from the elite Ukrainian Maroon battalion who refused to be sent to the slaughter, they are being put in positions where they cannot win. These are hardcore troops, not conscripts.

Colonel Tony Shaffer, who is no fan of Russia, makes a lucid 2min summary on the current situation:


There is no point in throwing tens of thousands more Ukrainian bodies into this meat grinder. Keeping this up is only going to lead to complete Ukrainian defeat with hundreds of thousands more deaths and further territorial losses, as col Shaffer stated.
bearister
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"It's no longer "on their own terms", Ukrainian men are now being forcibly enlisted, and they're even going after men who have left the country, refugees in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Germany etc. There have been many instances in this war where Ukrainian troops that have tried to surrender have been shot in the back by hardcore Banderists."

Response: If the reports are true, there are more than a few Russian men, as well as immigrants, that are less than ecstatic being pressed into service and spilling their intestines on foreign soil. Also reports that things don't go go so well for them if they show unwillingness to fight.



"There is no point in throwing tens of thousands more Ukrainian bodies into this meat grinder. Keeping this up is only going to lead to complete Ukrainian defeat with hundreds of thousands more deaths and further territorial losses, as col Shaffer stated.
Response: So if a foreign invader will ultimately prevail in a bloody war of attrition on foreign soil, it is not as pointless feeding young men into a meat grinder.
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Big C
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blungld said:

Biden Sucks said:

I'm gonna operate under the assumption that you are asking this question in good faith, unlike most of the other people in this thread.

The United States couped the Ukrainian government in 2014. Zelenskyy is a U.S. Puppet who ran on a fake peace agenda, but has operated a pro-war agenda at the direction of the U.S., personally enriching himself in the process. Most neo-cons (sycasey and Unit2Sucks chief among them) will not admit to these facts.

My issue with this war is that Ukrainian people pay the price for the foreign policy objectives of the guys who pushed us into the Iraq War. But because the Democrats are still mad about fake Russiagate, they support a foreign policy they opposed when we had a Republican president and Iraq as the enemy, but full throatedly support with a Democratic president and Russia, who they blame for their yasss queen not winning in 2016.
It's interesting that none of my relatives in the US and Ukraine and Poland--highly educated PHDs who work in academia and government would agree with your description or conclusions. But I guess you know better than the people who live there and who are most informed.

As I may have posted here a year or so ago, I would highly recommend that everyone here read "The Best and the Brightest" by the late David Halberstam, the story of how the people with the very best credentials imaginable -- the anecdote about McGeorge Bundy in prep school is alone worth the price of the book -- got it so incredibly wrong with the Vietnam War.
bearister
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Lock Her Up said:

sycasey said:

blungld said:

Seriously, do you ever tire of conducting yourself like a total asshat?
Why bother responding to the guy whose posts are just going to be deleted anyway?
You have to beg to have them deleted because when the contravening facts blow up the stupid narratives that you Biden voters fall far, you don't have a competent response. When it was somebody like hell2pay that was easy meat for you, you were more than happy to respond. Now the best you guys have are bearister's never-changing 20 memes and unBear89's pic responses when he finishes up his timeout.

Your side just doesn't have the intellectual chops to deal with inconvenient facts.


Barbara Boxer's reflection on Bernie Bros:

"There is so much negative energy; it's so angry. You can be angry about the unfairness in the world. But this becomes a personal, deep-seated anger at anyone who doesn't say exactly what you want to hear.

They are Internet trolls whose goals seem to have less to do with building Sanders up than with hounding and humiliating anyone who stands in their man's way.

Bernie Bros view moderate Democrats not as kindred spirits or potential converts but as sellouts, even traitors….the proverbial enemy within. Partly this is about the normal competition for power, in which the show of ideological purity is treated as evidence of moral superiority.

As Bernie Bros see it, ordinary civility isn't a virtue. It's a ruse by which those with power manipulate and marginalize those without."
NY Times


Gif # 21


Gif # 13


Gif # 7


Gif # 1
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dajo9
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Lock Her Up said:

sycasey said:

blungld said:

Seriously, do you ever tire of conducting yourself like a total asshat?
Why bother responding to the guy whose posts are just going to be deleted anyway?
You have to beg to have them deleted because when the contravening facts blow up the stupid narratives that you Biden voters fall far, you don't have a competent response. When it was somebody like hell2pay that was easy meat for you, you were more than happy to respond. Now the best you guys have are bearister's never-changing 20 memes and unBear89's pic responses when he finishes up his latest timeout.

Your side just doesn't have the intellectual chops to deal with inconvenient facts.





The funny part is, he actually believes this about himself
Cal88
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bearister said:

"It's no longer "on their own terms", Ukrainian men are now being forcibly enlisted, and they're even going after men who have left the country, refugees in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Germany etc. There have been many instances in this war where Ukrainian troops that have tried to surrender have been shot in the back by hardcore Banderists."

Response: If the reports are true, there are more than a few Russian men, as well as immigrants, that are less than ecstatic being pressed into service and spilling their intestines on foreign soil. Also reports that things don't go go so well for them if they show unwillingness to fight.

The near totality of Russian soldiers in Ukraine are either contract soldiers or volunteers, with the exception of the Wagner people which included a large number of prisoners. Russian soldiers have been dying at about 7-9 times lower rates than Ukrainians, and even less than that since Spring.


Quote:

"There is no point in throwing tens of thousands more Ukrainian bodies into this meat grinder. Keeping this up is only going to lead to complete Ukrainian defeat with hundreds of thousands more deaths and further territorial losses, as col Shaffer stated.

Response: So if a foreign invader will ultimately prevail in a bloody war of attrition on foreign soil, it is not as pointless feeding young men into a meat grinder.

The Russians don't perceive south and east Ukraine as foreign soil, because these areas have been inhabited by ethnic Russians for centuries.



The regime that was set up in Kiev after the Maidan Coup coercively imposed a western Ukrainian national identity glorifying the likes of Bandera, and a derussification program that alienated the large Russian/russophoone population and precipitated the 2014 rebellion in eastern Ukraine. At that point Kiev sent its tanks into the Donbass to crush that popular rebellion. The Russians have been largely welcome as liberators in nearly all the areas they currently hold.





Vice Magazine report on the Donbass rebellion (the graphic violence warning is a bit unwarranted) :
Cal88
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Quote:

U2S wrote:

But there is plenty for them to crow about - they should be proud of the Russian innovation that will surely protect their air force when their old fashioned air defenses cannot stop Ukrainian drones



And they have no reason to be concerned about Ukraine's developing drone program.




The tires are a very effective low-tech means of masking larger planes from satellite reconnaissance, absorbing radar waves:



Ukrainian drones like the one pictured above, large and slow, are 10-20 years behind Turkey's Bayraktars, which the Russians have had no problem shooting down. a better strategy for NATO would have been to copy and mass produce the Russian Lancet drone, which has been taking out roughly one third of Ukrainian tanks, armored vehicles, EW stations etc,.

Your other recent claims are complete, brazen projection:


Poroshenko, Merkel and Hollande, the signatories of the Minsk Agreements, are on record stating that they had no intention of abiding by them, and were just buying time until they could put together an army strong enough to invade the Donbass.



This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/
Haloski
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Cal88 said:


This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/


That's absolutely awful.

Saint Putin, thank goodness, would never do such a thing. His nonawfulness knows no bounds as he showers humanity with his grace.

These people all suck. It's not good to cheerlead for any of them.
oski003
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Haloski said:

Cal88 said:


This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/


That's absolutely awful.

Saint Putin, thank goodness, would never do such a thing. His nonawfulness knows no bounds as he showers humanity with his grace.

These people all suck. It's not good to cheerlead for any of them.


Putin certainly would punish those who undermine him. However, we are talking about NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks unwillingness to make peace. Whether or not Putin would assassinate someone, such as a rogue general, is irrelevant.
Cal88
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Exactly. As well it sends a chilling message from the radical nationalists to anyone seeking to negotiate a settlement with Russia to end the war - including Zelensky himself.

This being said, some observers are speculating that Blinken's recent 2-day visit to Kiev might have been with the intent to put in place a conflict "freeze", motivated in good part by not having to go into the 24 elections with the stain of a loss in the Ukraine war. To this effect, NATO is abou to transfer long range ATACMs and German Taurus cruise missiles, in order to raise the Russians' pain level and push them to accept that freeze.
Haloski
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oski003 said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:


This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/


That's absolutely awful.

Saint Putin, thank goodness, would never do such a thing. His nonawfulness knows no bounds as he showers humanity with his grace.

These people all suck. It's not good to cheerlead for any of them.


Putin certainly would punish those who undermine him. However, we are talking about NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks unwillingness to make peace. Whether or not Putin would assassinate someone, such as a rogue general, is irrelevant.


It's ok for you to admit that Putin is a giant piece of **** while still opposing the NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks.

Putin has absolutely used the positions he's found himself in to enrich himself at the expense of others to the tune of a sum that makes Zelensky and many in the MIC stateside look like chumps. He's absolutely silenced and harmed people that not only undermined him, but merely voiced opposition to him. It's not a singular instance of a guy rebelling and having his plane shot down, so let's not pretend that it's the only example or that all others are similar.

Thing is, I can say that so many of the people involved in our system are absolutely reprehensible sleazebags, just like Putin.

We all know it to be true, but you'd never say it of Putin and his cronies. It's ok. You're all hypocrites.

GO BEARS! BEAT AUBURN!
oski003
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Haloski said:

oski003 said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:


This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/


That's absolutely awful.

Saint Putin, thank goodness, would never do such a thing. His nonawfulness knows no bounds as he showers humanity with his grace.

These people all suck. It's not good to cheerlead for any of them.


Putin certainly would punish those who undermine him. However, we are talking about NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks unwillingness to make peace. Whether or not Putin would assassinate someone, such as a rogue general, is irrelevant.


It's ok for you to admit that Putin is a giant piece of **** while still opposing the NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks.

Putin has absolutely used the positions he's found himself in to enrich himself at the expense of others to the tune of a sum that makes Zelensky and many in the MIC stateside look like chumps. He's absolutely silenced and harmed people that not only undermined him, but merely voiced opposition to him. It's not a singular instance of a guy rebelling and having his plane shot down, so let's not pretend that it's the only example or that all others are similar.

Thing is, I can say that so many of the people involved in our system are absolutely reprehensible sleazebags, just like Putin.

We all know it to be true, but you'd never say it of Putin and his cronies. It's ok. You're all hypocrites.

GO BEARS! BEAT AUBURN!


I agree with everything you say, except for the misguided accusations at the end. Go Bears!
sycasey
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oski003 will admit that Putin is terrible.

Cal88 will not.
movielover
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Difference is, big bad horrible Putin AGREED and reportedly SIGNED a peace deal.

BORIS JOHNSON (NATO / USA) stopped it.
Haloski
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movielover said:

Difference is, big bad horrible Putin AGREED and reportedly SIGNED a peace deal.

BORIS JOHNSON (NATO / USA) stopped it.


I agree that they're terrible.

For you to call a truly reprehensible human a POS is a bridge too far, it seems.

They're all pieces of garbage, cheerleader.
Haloski
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oski003 said:

Haloski said:

oski003 said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:


This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/


That's absolutely awful.

Saint Putin, thank goodness, would never do such a thing. His nonawfulness knows no bounds as he showers humanity with his grace.

These people all suck. It's not good to cheerlead for any of them.


Putin certainly would punish those who undermine him. However, we are talking about NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks unwillingness to make peace. Whether or not Putin would assassinate someone, such as a rogue general, is irrelevant.


It's ok for you to admit that Putin is a giant piece of **** while still opposing the NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks.

Putin has absolutely used the positions he's found himself in to enrich himself at the expense of others to the tune of a sum that makes Zelensky and many in the MIC stateside look like chumps. He's absolutely silenced and harmed people that not only undermined him, but merely voiced opposition to him. It's not a singular instance of a guy rebelling and having his plane shot down, so let's not pretend that it's the only example or that all others are similar.

Thing is, I can say that so many of the people involved in our system are absolutely reprehensible sleazebags, just like Putin.

We all know it to be true, but you'd never say it of Putin and his cronies. It's ok. You're all hypocrites.

GO BEARS! BEAT AUBURN!


I agree with everything you say, except for the misguided accusations at the end. Go Bears!


Fair enough. Sorry about that.

GO BEARS!
Cal88
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Hypocrisy from the EU, turning back war refugees to their probable death:



It's going to be interesting to see which EU countries will buck the NATO directives and save these young men from the meat grinder, and also whether the same directive will apply in the US or Canada. There's going to be a wave of Ukrainian men refugees going from the EU (especially Poland) to countries like Hungary which will protect their refugees, and maybe even to Russia which will not send them back.

Poland is the key country here, with 3 million Ukrainian men in that country, and it appears that they have already started drawing up plans to extradite 80,000 Ukrainians:

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21242
Cal88
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Haloski said:

oski003 said:

Haloski said:

Cal88 said:


This is really disgusting, the Kiev regime actually killed one of their own official negotiators, Denys Kiryeev, gunning him down in the street mafia-style in broad daylight, because they deemed him too soft on Russia.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukraine-reports-claim-negotiator-shot-for-treason-officials-say-he-died-in-intel-op/


That's absolutely awful.

Saint Putin, thank goodness, would never do such a thing. His nonawfulness knows no bounds as he showers humanity with his grace.

These people all suck. It's not good to cheerlead for any of them.


Putin certainly would punish those who undermine him. However, we are talking about NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks unwillingness to make peace. Whether or not Putin would assassinate someone, such as a rogue general, is irrelevant.


It's ok for you to admit that Putin is a giant piece of **** while still opposing the NATO/Ukraine/US Warhawks.

Putin has absolutely used the positions he's found himself in to enrich himself at the expense of others to the tune of a sum that makes Zelensky and many in the MIC stateside look like chumps. He's absolutely silenced and harmed people that not only undermined him, but merely voiced opposition to him. It's not a singular instance of a guy rebelling and having his plane shot down, so let's not pretend that it's the only example or that all others are similar.

Thing is, I can say that so many of the people involved in our system are absolutely reprehensible sleazebags, just like Putin.

We all know it to be true, but you'd never say it of Putin and his cronies. It's ok. You're all hypocrites.

GO BEARS! BEAT AUBURN!

There is a tendency to designate the leader of the foreign enemy du jour a the lovechild of Hitler and Imelda Marcos, by default.

There is also the tendency for the general public to buy into this media characterization without any criticism or nuance.

There is also a lot of cultural conditioning when it comes to the framing of the designated enemy cultures - "Huns", "Gooks" in the Vietnam war era, assorted mideast Muslims since the Iran revolution, on to the Gulf wars, and now the reviving of the old Cold War archenemy, the damn Russkies, with the red China yellow peril not far behind.

Foreign policy is sold to the general public framed as a Hollywood narrative, with Hollywood villains. Putin is Palpatine, Zelensky Skywalker. This has been part of the imagery and myth-building of the Ukraine narrative, as well as the steady stream of Hollywood celebrities endorsing it.



The war is framed as a hero's journey battle between good and evil, and intensely personalized with the designated enemy leader taking on the full attributes of a Bond villain. This is where I tap out.

I don't bear any hatred towards Russia or the Russian people, to the contrary, I have a lot of respect for their rich cultural heritage, their history and contributions to world civilization, including liberating Europe from the Nazis. They lost 14 million soldiers, fighting them, vs 140,000 for the US, 100 times greater sacrifice. If the USSR did not fight Germany, the Wehrmacht would have easily conquered Britain and beat back any US attempt to land anywhere on the Continent.

The actions Putin undertook were in line with his country's geopolitical interests. That much is clearly understood by serious political analysts like John Mearsheimer, George Kennan, Zbig Brzezinski or even current US intel boss William Burns, all of whom have predicted Russia's current course of action, based on their well-known red lines, which US/NATO policies went out of their way to cross. If anything Putin is a prudent, calculating leader whose main domestic opposition are more aggressive parties (nationalists and communists). He's a moderate and somewhat of a liberal, on the Russian political spectrum, regarded as an indecisive, almost weak leader from both their hard right and left.

Ironically enough, Putin is also a pro-European character, being from St Petersburg (Russia's most European metropole), and having been stationed in East Germany. He speaks fluent German. He wanted Russia to be part of Europe, even wanted to join NATO, an aspiration which was rebuffed during the Clinton and Bush years. We won the Cold War, and Russia has no place in the victor's table. If anything, the leading interest groups in the US were pissed at Putin for having closed off their access to the vast Russian mineral and industrial assets.

Putin is very well-liked at home, not because the Russians are dumb serfs who are culturally conditioned to worship a supreme leader-dictator, but because much like Xi, he has delivered for his country, which without his intervention would have easily fallen apart and disintegrated much like the USSR did. Russians today are fairly well-off, with virtually no debt, no unemployment, low inflation, low crime, a social net, good infrastructure and thriving agricultural and industrial sectors.

My point here is that the world is a bit more complex than the narrative you are sold.

movielover
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Blinken Offers Russia a White Flag

The Ukrainian authorities are ready to negotiate with Russia to end the war U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

"When it comes to negotiations, it takes two to tango. And so far we have not seen any signs of interest in diplomacy from Vladimir Putin. If he shows interest, then I think the Ukrainians will be the first to enter into negotiations, and we will be right behind them. Everyone wants this military conflict to end, but it must end on fair and sustainable terms that reflect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine," Blinken said.
Zippergate
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Putin was ready to negotiate a peace deal back in April '22 when the scope and casualties of the conflict were much lower than today. Russia's position has strengthened both in Ukraine and at home while Ukraine has been decimated military and is entirely dependent on NATO. It's not hard to imagine what kind of deal relative to April '22 Ukraine is going to get. Was the last year and half of fighting worth it? To all the people who think Ukraine's pre-war borders are sacrosanct and non-negotiable, how do you feel about Blinken selling out the Ukrainians?
Unit2Sucks
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I guess another Russian journalist is looking for help jumping out a window.



I'm surprised Stalin would be revered - rather than fight Hitler to every last Russian, he should have surrendered immediately and allowed Hitler to take the Soviet Union. Would have saved 15 million Russian lives - maybe more when you consider everyone who died in his gulags and the post-war famine. Stalin knew that Hitler was committed to invading Russia and should have worked toward peace as soon as France fell.

Meanwhile, at the front, it appears that Russia may be massing 400k+ troops but those far they haven't been able to stop Ukraine from making meaningful advances in a number of areas as the offensive has begun to pick up steam. Ukraine claims that they plan to continue to press the offensive for several more months.




It's no wonder that so many shills are calling for a freeze in the fighting given that they don't see anything promising for the Russian invasion they support.

Good article in the Atlantic about how wrong the experts have been not just in this war but in a number of recent wars. We should be weary of anyone making confident projections about what will happen next month or next year. The outcome has not yet been determined and will very much depend on everyone's willingness to continue to devote resources and manpower. There should be very little foregone conclusions that ignore those variables.

This is one of the reasons I am pretty careful not to project what will or won't happen. Some things are obvious - the more weapons and aid we send Ukraine, the better their defense will be. Ukraine faces an artillery shortage which has resulted in scaling up artillery production as well as the US sending them cluster munitions, UK sending storm shadows, US reportedly sending ATACMS, etc. We also know that in every phase of this war the Russian military has underperformed their resourcing and manpower (in large part because the soldiers have no reason to fight this war), but perhaps one day that could change.


Cal88
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Zippergate said:

Putin was ready to negotiate a peace deal back in April '22 when the scope and casualties of the conflict were much lower than today. Russia's position has strengthened both in Ukraine and at home while Ukraine has been decimated military and is entirely dependent on NATO. It's not hard to imagine what kind of deal relative to April '22 Ukraine is going to get. Was the last year and half of fighting worth it? To all the people who think Ukraine's pre-war borders are sacrosanct and non-negotiable, how do you feel about Blinken selling out the Ukrainians?

Exactly. I'm not sure about Blinken selling out Ukraine though, because at this point selling them out really means using up Ukraine to the last Ukrainian, stopping the war would be a godsend to the Ukrainians, I think many neocons now realize that Russia was going to win this war regardless, and are trying to manage an early exit that wouldn't damage their reelection chances. Also keeping the war going will result in a bigger Russian win.

The Russians at this point are not going to stop unless they get all their terms: neutrality/security guarantees, political reform/regime change, demilitarization, lifting of sanctions/normalization and recognition of the current borders.

Mearsheimer agrees:


(Mearsheimer's assessment of 2 to 1 loss ratio in favor of Russia is far too conservative, it is closer to 5 to 1. I don't think the Russians can politically sustain a 2 to 1 loss ratio in their favor, given the sheer numbers here.)

The April '22 deal terms imposed on Ukraine neutrality, and set limits on the size of their army and military equipment (number of tanks, jets etc), and also removed restrictions on the use of the Russian language in Ukraine. The Russians were also going to withdraw to something close to the current borders: Crimea, the Donbass and the land bridge.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Meanwhile, at the front, it appears that Russia may be massing 400k+ troops but those far they haven't been able to stop Ukraine from making meaningful advances in a number of areas as the offensive has begun to pick up steam. Ukraine claims that they plan to continue to press the offensive for several more months.

The advances Ukraine has made have been insignificant, you can barely make them up on a map without zooming in (see below). The goal was to break the Crimean land bridge and make a push towards the coast, capture or disrupt Melitopol. They are nowhere near that goal, have barely gotten past the first line of defense, which was meant to breach like the bumper of a car. And this despite huge sacrifice with 50k-60k casualties and a loss of half their equipment in wave after wave of unsuccessful attacks.


Quote:

It's no wonder that so many shills are calling for a freeze in the fighting given that they don't see anything promising for the Russian invasion they support.

Good article in the Atlantic about how wrong the experts have been not just in this war but in a number of recent wars. We should be weary of anyone making confident projections about what will happen next month or next year. The outcome has not yet been determined and will very much depend on everyone's willingness to continue to devote resources and manpower. There should be very little foregone conclusions that ignore those variables.

This is one of the reasons I am pretty careful not to project what will or won't happen. Some things are obvious - the more weapons and aid we send Ukraine, the better their defense will be. Ukraine faces an artillery shortage which has resulted in scaling up artillery production as well as the US sending them cluster munitions, UK sending storm shadows, US reportedly sending ATACMS, etc. We also know that in every phase of this war the Russian military has underperformed their resourcing and manpower (in large part because the soldiers have no reason to fight this war), but perhaps one day that could change.

You have a very limited understanding of the military situation, the pundits you rely on are either clouded by their ideological hubris or they are straight up propagandists.

The Russians are not underperforming, they have been winning this year, and have significantly modernized and streamlined their military equipment and operations, stepping up their military industrial output both in quality and volume.
sycasey
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Cal88 said:

You have a very limited understanding of the military situation, the pundits you rely on are either clouded by their ideological hubris or they are straight up propagandists.
Irony.
dajo9
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Zippergate said:

Putin was ready to negotiate a peace deal back in April '22 when the scope and casualties of the conflict were much lower than today. Russia's position has strengthened both in Ukraine and at home while Ukraine has been decimated military and is entirely dependent on NATO. It's not hard to imagine what kind of deal relative to April '22 Ukraine is going to get. Was the last year and half of fighting worth it? To all the people who think Ukraine's pre-war borders are sacrosanct and non-negotiable, how do you feel about Blinken selling out the Ukrainians?
You seem like an expert on international matters. Last week you said the USD was no longer the best reserve currency. What is the new best reserve currency? Thank you in advance for sharing your expertise.
dimitrig
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dajo9 said:

Zippergate said:

Putin was ready to negotiate a peace deal back in April '22 when the scope and casualties of the conflict were much lower than today. Russia's position has strengthened both in Ukraine and at home while Ukraine has been decimated military and is entirely dependent on NATO. It's not hard to imagine what kind of deal relative to April '22 Ukraine is going to get. Was the last year and half of fighting worth it? To all the people who think Ukraine's pre-war borders are sacrosanct and non-negotiable, how do you feel about Blinken selling out the Ukrainians?
You seem like an expert on international matters. Last week you said the USD was no longer the best reserve currency. What is the new best reserve currency? Thank you in advance for sharing your expertise.

NFTs



Cal88
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sycasey said:

Cal88 said:

You have a very limited understanding of the military situation, the pundits you rely on are either clouded by their ideological hubris or they are straight up propagandists.
Irony.

None of the analysts and internet pundits you and U2S follow have been right in their assessment of the military situation, whereas Mearsheimer, Col. MacGregor, Col. Daniel Davis, Col. Anthony Shaffer, Col. Jacques Baud, HistoryLegends and co have been proven right on these and many other points:

-Russia has escalatory dominance
-The sanctions aren't working
-Russia is winning the war of attrition, with much greater resources and production output
-The wonderweapons delivered to Ukraine have not been the gamechangers they were advertised
-Bakhmut was a lost cause for Ukraine where they kept doubling down
-Ukraine's counteroffensive was bound to fail, wrong tactics.
bearister
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Putin Wants His Hit Man Back - WSJ


https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-wants-his-hit-man-back-5bd759f8

Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection
Send my credentials to the House of Detention
I got some friends inside
Cal88
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dajo9 said:

Zippergate said:

Putin was ready to negotiate a peace deal back in April '22 when the scope and casualties of the conflict were much lower than today. Russia's position has strengthened both in Ukraine and at home while Ukraine has been decimated military and is entirely dependent on NATO. It's not hard to imagine what kind of deal relative to April '22 Ukraine is going to get. Was the last year and half of fighting worth it? To all the people who think Ukraine's pre-war borders are sacrosanct and non-negotiable, how do you feel about Blinken selling out the Ukrainians?
You seem like an expert on international matters. Last week you said the USD was no longer the best reserve currency. What is the new best reserve currency? Thank you in advance for sharing your expertise.

The process of dedolarization has already started, the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia have contributed to it. The US$ has been losing ground as the world's reserve currency and as the fiat currency for global trade, that much is clear. This process however is not instantaneous, it is going to take place over the next 10-15 years.

Quote:

The wheels are in motion

Final arguments that the dollar could lose its role as the preeminent reserve currency are based on it already happening, albeit slowly.

IMF data reveal the dollar share of foreign reserves fell from a high of 73% in 2001 to 62% at the end of last year. Similarly, the World Gold Council confirms that central banks bought more gold in 2018 than at any other time since the gold standard ended in 1971, extending a string of large net purchases that began after the global financial crisis.

If the trends continue of switching from dollars to other currencies, and from currencies collectively to gold, the dollar's reserve currency status will continue to give ground, but only gradually.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/the-risks-are-rising-that-the-dollar-could-lose-its-special-global-standing.html

When all is said and done, the US$ will probably still remain the leading world currency, but it will no longer completely dominate world trade and world FX reserves. The US GDP represents about 25% of global GDP but the $ has had over 3x that weight as a reserve currency. That share will drop to below 50% this decade.
Zippergate
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It's no wonder that so many shills are calling for a freeze in the fighting given that they don't see anything promising for the Russian invasion they support.

Lol. First of all, it's your neocon diplomat that is calling for peace deal. Second, no one in the anti-neocon camp has ever said they supported the Russian invasion. No one. Ever. We've said that the Russians were provoked and perhaps even justified given NATO lies and actions and Ukraine treatment of Russians in eastern Ukraine. The fact that you continue with these tired straw man arguments (like the Putin lover ad hominem) just proves that you are either arguing in bad faith or are unable to grasp such simple and obvious distinctions.
Zippergate
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Cal88 said:

dajo9 said:

Zippergate said:

Putin was ready to negotiate a peace deal back in April '22 when the scope and casualties of the conflict were much lower than today. Russia's position has strengthened both in Ukraine and at home while Ukraine has been decimated military and is entirely dependent on NATO. It's not hard to imagine what kind of deal relative to April '22 Ukraine is going to get. Was the last year and half of fighting worth it? To all the people who think Ukraine's pre-war borders are sacrosanct and non-negotiable, how do you feel about Blinken selling out the Ukrainians?
You seem like an expert on international matters. Last week you said the USD was no longer the best reserve currency. What is the new best reserve currency? Thank you in advance for sharing your expertise.

The process of dedolarization has already started, the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia have contributed to it. The US$ has been losing ground as the world's reserve currency and as the fiat currency for global trade, that much is clear. This process however is not instantaneous, it is going to take place over the next 10-15 years.

Quote:

The wheels are in motion

Final arguments that the dollar could lose its role as the preeminent reserve currency are based on it already happening, albeit slowly.

IMF data reveal the dollar share of foreign reserves fell from a high of 73% in 2001 to 62% at the end of last year. Similarly, the World Gold Council confirms that central banks bought more gold in 2018 than at any other time since the gold standard ended in 1971, extending a string of large net purchases that began after the global financial crisis.

If the trends continue of switching from dollars to other currencies, and from currencies collectively to gold, the dollar's reserve currency status will continue to give ground, but only gradually.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/07/the-risks-are-rising-that-the-dollar-could-lose-its-special-global-standing.html

When all is said and done, the US$ will probably still remain the leading world currency, but it will no longer completely dominate world trade and world FX reserves. The US GDP represents about 25% of global GDP but the $ has had over 3x that weight as a reserve currency. That share will drop to below 50% this decade.
Excellent commentary. I would add that not only are Saudi Arabia, China, and Japan not growing their US treasury holdings, they are cutting them quite dramatically. This at a time when treasury issuance, the budget deficit and interest on the debt are growing at an unprecedented rate. Way too many balls in the air for this leadership team of clueless political hacks to manage. Something is gonna break.
movielover
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What happens as commercial real estate is down graded, vacant, and tax receipts drop?
dajo9
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Yes, but you are avoiding the question. Which currency is better than the USD as a reserve currency?
tequila4kapp
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This thread is laughably predictable
Zippergate
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dajo9 said:

Yes, but you are avoiding the question. Which currency is better than the USD as a reserve currency?
Maybe you're asking the wrong question. China has surpassed the US as the largest trading partner for most nations in the world. China is the world's largest importer of many commodities and oil in particular. Why should those transactions be denominated in dollars? The recent BRICS summit which will now include China, India, Russia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia among others showed that these nations are dissatisfied with dollar hegemony and are fed up with the weaponization of the global payment system by the US via sanctions and freezing of dollar assets. They've been accumulating gold and selling treasuries. Who knows how this how and when this will all shake out, but the notion that the US can endlessly abuse the system for its own benefit without consequence strikes me as dangerous hubris.
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