The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

938,328 Views | 10272 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by Cal88
BearHunter
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sycasey said:

I think it's better to not invade at all unless you were directly attacked. But I'll put you down as pro-invasion. Good to know!


Ukraine Parenting magazine. September 2023 edition.
Cal88
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Very good rundown on the uniparty and oil mafia (Chevron, Halliburton etc) role in pushing the Ukraine war, or why operators like Graham and Cotton are leading the war to the last Ukrainian effort.
bearister
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What is your opinion of Paxton?
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Unit2Sucks
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Informative response to a question by a noted blowhard.



Good article if anyone wants a not too long overview of what's been going on in the southern front and how Russia's defense came to be.



Update on Bakhmut where, despite not having any strategic importance, Ukraine has continued to fix Russian resources because Russia desperately wants to maintain the PR from having taken the area. Article here, tweets below.




Anyone want more evidence that this war is going great for Russia? Massive increase in order of death certificates by the Kremlin.



Cal88
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bearister said:

What is your opinion of Paxton?

TBF I haven't followed his case closely, I'm not that up to date on Texas politics, but to the extent that he might be against the TX Bush machine, he's alright by me.
Cal88
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Unit2Sucks said:

Anyone want more evidence that this war is going great for Russia? Massive increase in order of death certificates by the Kremlin.




Perhaps the Russians are planning a large offensive next year? They have just produced a recruitment ad which hints that they could be revisiting Kiev or moving on Nikolayv/Odessa.

In any case, Russian casualties the last month have been among the lowest since the beginning of the war, according to Mediazona, a BBC-affiliated research outfit:



https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

The other stories, as usual with U2S material sourced from the likes of Dmitri or ChrisO, are just as shaky. No significant progress has been made in the south, Ukraine is still in the grayzone, in the final weeks before mud season. The story about Ukrainian artillery superiority in Bakhmut doesn't pass the eyeball test either.
oski003
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Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Anyone want more evidence that this war is going great for Russia? Massive increase in order of death certificates by the Kremlin.




Perhaps the Russians are planning a large offensive next year? They have just produced a recruitment ad which hints that they could be revisiting Kiev or moving on Nikolayv/Odessa.

In any case, Russian casualties the last month have been among the lowest since the beginning of the war, according to Mediazona, a BBC-affiliated research outfit:



https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

The other stories, as usual with U2S material sourced from the likes of Dmitri or ChrisO, are just as shaky. No significant progress has been made in the south, Ukraine is still in the grayzone, in the final weeks before mud season. The story about Ukrainian artillery superiority in Bakhmut doesn't pass the eyeball test either.


Do you attach any significance to Ukraine hitting Crimea with missiles? It seems that Crimea is down to only 1-2 Anti-missile AA, and allies keep pledging more and more long range missiles, many with newer techs. How does Crimea's vulnerability to these attacks change the status of the war?
bearister
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The Texas oilmen cratered John Kerry's White House bid via their front, The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.
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chazzed
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These Russian girls are hardcore hip-hop:

Cal88
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bearister said:

The Texas oilmen cratered John Kerry's White House bid via their front, The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.

Karl Rove playbook, gutter politics.
Cal88
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oski003 said:

Cal88 said:

Unit2Sucks said:

Anyone want more evidence that this war is going great for Russia? Massive increase in order of death certificates by the Kremlin.




Perhaps the Russians are planning a large offensive next year? They have just produced a recruitment ad which hints that they could be revisiting Kiev or moving on Nikolayv/Odessa.

In any case, Russian casualties the last month have been among the lowest since the beginning of the war, according to Mediazona, a BBC-affiliated research outfit:



https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng

The other stories, as usual with U2S material sourced from the likes of Dmitri or ChrisO, are just as shaky. No significant progress has been made in the south, Ukraine is still in the grayzone, in the final weeks before mud season. The story about Ukrainian artillery superiority in Bakhmut doesn't pass the eyeball test either.


Do you attach any significance to Ukraine hitting Crimea with missiles? It seems that Crimea is down to only 1-2 Anti-missile AA, and allies keep pledging more and more long range missiles, many with newer techs. How does Crimea's vulnerability to these attacks change the status of the war?

Russia still has several hundred AA batteries and thousands of missiles. Most of these are mobile systems, so if they are indeed low on their Crimean inventory, they are able to replenish it.

Ukraine has been using a large proportion of their cruise missiles to hit high-profile Crimean targets. Their success rate has been fairly low, 5%-15% of missiles get through, when they do it's because NATO might find weaker spots and attack paths within the Russian AA network, They've only managed to hit the Kerch Bridge (one of their top targets) a couple of times in dozens of attempts with missile salvos and drones. By and large their targets like the bridge are significant more symbolically than militarily, with a few exceptions like the hit on the submarine in the dry dock, which was a big win for Ukraine, both psychologically and militarily considering the Russians only have around 60 subs.

Ukraine would have been better off saving their valuable and expensive cruise missile stock targeting infrastructure hubs, large munition depots etc on the mainland behind the LOC, as Crimea is only peripheral in this conflict, except for missile attacks launched from Black Sea ships, though these can be accomplished just as easily with their large fleet of bombers.
Unit2Sucks
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chazzed said:

These Russian girls are hardcore hip-hop:


This is why the desperate proclamations of the downfall of the West are premature. I am reminded of the time (very shortly after 9/11) when I saw a Saudi family, one of whom was decked out in a Britney spears themed Burqa. Imagine the sort of stuff Trumpers wear to Trump rallies, except a Burqa with bizarre Britney spears imagery.

There is still an immense draw to what the West has to offer. There is a reason that wealthy people from all over the world enjoy spending time in the west, buy property here, etc. You don't see wealthy people from Asia buying property in Russia and that isn't changing any time soon. You don't see well-heeled Saudis attending college in Russia.

Even the guy who coined the term BRICS acknowledges that the idea of them establishing a common currency is ridiculous. He recently said that China is the only thing that makes BRICS economically interesting at this point.

When you see Russia claiming to be at war with the West and then creating US-style propaganda like the terrible rap video above or this ridiculous imperialist military recruiting commercial, you can see the writing on the wall. Russia will continue to see an exodus of high quality young people unless they can provide the standards, freedoms and economic opportunity the west affords. Right now Russia's economy only works for corrupt kleptocrats and oligarchs.



Russia is a beautiful country with some amazing cities and cultural heritage but many suffer from severe poverty and unknowingly sacrifice so that Putin can continue to add to his $200B fortune. And, of course, this dumb unprovoked war that Putin started will only exacerbate their problems and will lead to even worse poverty and brain drain.

I recognize this post will be met with furious propaganda with lots of cherry-picked data and maybe some pretty pictures of Moscow fed by some Discord propaganda server, but everyone should feel free to "do their own research." If you do, you will see that life throughout Russia, particularly the further you get from Moscow, doesn't look quite so rosy. And, to no one's surprise, Putin manipulates the numbers to make it appear as if they are making progress against poverty but the level of extreme poverty we are talking about is very different from what people in the US are familiar with. Almost 1/3 of Russia could be considered to be in poverty if you set the poverty line at just $200 per month. Even with Russia's lower PPP, life above the poverty line is brutal.

None of this is to say that the US doesn't struggle with poverty (which is likely to be another disingenuous argument by Putin's shills).

As I've noted before, thousands of Russians emigrate to the US every month. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many US-born Americans leave for Russia each month? Dozens? There is no question as to which country people would rather be in, if given the choice. This continues to be true for most of the world, and certainly for most of the people in BRICS countries.

Zippergate
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As I've noted before, thousands of Russians emigrate to the US every month. Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many US-born Americans leave for Russia each month? Dozens? There is no question as to which country people would rather be in, if given the choice. This continues to be true for most of the world, and certainly for most of the people in BRICS countries.

If the US were to lose the exorbitant privilege, I'm not sure this is the case, but what does this have to do with the justness of the war or which side is winning?
Cal88
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Ukraine is now heavily "recruiting" troops in the western heartland, the city of Lviv here. Last year these kinds of efforts were focused mainly on Russian-speaking cities like Odessa or Kharkov.



There are several dozen such videos that have been published, but few vids that showed what happened to these men after their get rounded up in the vans. Apparently these men are held captives, brutalized and "broken in", beaten and psychologically abused until they sign, then used up and disposed of on the front:
BearHunter
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Is there anything Zelenskyy could do that would cause Biden to second-guess his blank-check approach to Ukraine assistance? If not, shouldn't that cause concern?
BearHunter
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Sarah Ashton-Cirillo has been suspended from duties as Ukrainian military spokesperson pending an investigation, following her comments to "hunt down" critics of the US' involvement in the Ukraine war.
Cal88
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BearHunter said:



Sarah Ashton-Cirillo has been suspended from duties as Ukrainian military spokesperson pending an investigation, following her comments to "hunt down" critics of the US' involvement in the Ukraine war.

This person is responsible for the arrest of American citizen Gonzalo Lira, who is going to detained in a labor camp for 3 to 5 years for being a political dissenter.

Meanwhile, here's Azov being Azov:

BearHunter
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There's a very good chance this video is real too.
Zippergate
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Meanwhile, here's Azov being Azov:

Ah c'mon. Azov is just an "idea," not an actual white supremacist hate group.
Unit2Sucks
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Sounds like Biden isn't going to approve ATACMS which is disappointing. The aid package announced tomorrow is likely to be underwhelming.



I guess we haven't exhausted all other options yet. Failing to support Ukraine is just exacerbating the awful impact of the war. For way too long we held back on F-16s and then over a year late agreed to let our allies send F-16s. Eventually we will send ATACMS but the sooner the Biden admin sees that slow-walking aid just prolongs this dumb war, the better Ukraine and the world will be.

Prolonging the war leads to more war crimes - like the murder of children by small arms (which no Putinphile could even argue is collateral damage).



There are fires burning in Crimea - some claim that the Kerch bridge was attacked again by Ukrainian storm shadows but Russian defenders say that the missiles were intercepted and landed in fields. I guess we will know more soon.


tequila4kapp
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Lend Lease.

Ukraine gets all the aid it can borrow on.
Doves win because we stop giving away money.
Hawks win because the war continue on.
dajo9
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By partnering with America, BRICS only make themselves stronger and America weaker
https://www.threads.net/@vote_blue_2024/post/CxbkC3sRcm5/?igshid=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
Cal88
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Very significant change in the situation with Poland essentially tapping out. Their president threw Ukraine under the bus, comparing it to a drowning man that could drag its rescuers into the abyss with him. Poland is also cutting all aid to Polish refugees, no financial support or free healthcare etc.



Poland has already lost over 10,000 soldiers in Ukraine, there have been some tensions over Poles getting mired in Ukrainian reckless and wasteful military tactics both in Bakhmut and currently in Zaporizhia. Poland now understands that there is no military solution for Ukraine in this war and is now tapping out. The war in Poland is unpopular, much like it is in Czechia, Hungary or Slovakia, as is the economic strain of supporting millions of Ukrainian refugees in a recession with unprecedented inflation levels is being felt, and with the elections coming in October, Polish president Duda is cutting his losses.

This looks like the beginning of the end of the war.
Cal88
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This figure includes over 50,000 war amputees.
BearHunter
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Kevin McCarthy rejected Zelensky's request to deliver joint address to Congress.
BearHunter
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Ukraine propaganda. Zelensky is shown watching his own speech at the UN!
Zippergate
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Desperate times, desperate measures and all that...

----------------
Did Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine bomb his own nation? and people and killed many in order to blame Russia (Putin)? Strong evidence now suggests that it is possible & YES & he rushed to blame Putin


https://palexander.substack.com/p/did-volodymyr-zelensky-of-ukraine

'Witness accounts and an analysis of video and weapon fragments suggest a Ukrainian missile failed to hit its intended target and landed in a bustling street, with devastating consequences.'
'But evidence collected and analyzed by The New York Times, including missile fragments, satellite imagery, witness accounts and social media posts, strongly suggests the catastrophic strike was the result'…of 'Ukrainian air defense missile fired by a Buk launch system.'
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html



Zippergate
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lots of interesting alternative propaganda here...

https://meaninginhistory.substack.com/p/can-the-neocons-survive-the-new-phase

Back in DC, there appears to be a full scale civil war breaking out behind the scenes. The political wing of the Ruling Class is increasingly desperate to be rid of the grifting Biden Crime Familya readily foreseeable eventuality, given that this wing has an election that they want to win. On the other hand the Permanent War wing is increasingly engaging in finger pointing and blame assignment, featuring anonymous CIA analysts maintaining "we told you so" to the Neocons and their DIA lapdogs. The bottom line here is pretty much the same as Macgregor expressed it. The CIA has recruited David Ignatius and Seymour Hersch to state for public consumption that the Neocons and their hapless frontman Zhou have no clothes. As Hersch puts it:
Quote:

"The war is over. Russia has won. There is no Ukrainian offensive anymore, but the White House and the American media have to keep the lie going.
"The truth is if the Ukrainian army is ordered to continue the offensive, the army would mutiny. The soldiers aren't willing to die any more, but this doesn't fit the B.S. that is being authored by the Biden White House."
But how long can this continue? Will the house of cards collapse if the Russians finally go on the offensive?
Some time ago, during the summer, we discussed the thesis put forward by Michael Vlahos, that the Ukrainian army was reaching the breaking point. It seems clear, now, that Deep State insiders know this is true, and the only option left is to try to gaslight the Russians into acting against their interests. Rational people know that won't work.
An interesting sidelight to all of the above is that the Neocons appear to have recruited the Polish government to assist them in the campaign to get Zelensky to reach out to Russia (I say "Russia", because I doubt Putin would speak to Zelensky).
bearister
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Putin's feared Black Sea Fleet HQ is BLOWN UP 'by Brit Storm Shadow missile' in massive fiery blitz on occupied Crimea | The US Sun


https://www.the-sun.com/news/9153595/explosions-putin-black-sea-crimea/

Ukraine hits Black Sea navy HQ in Crimea missile attack, one dead | Crimea News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia
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oski003
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bearister said:

Putin's feared Black Sea Fleet HQ is BLOWN UP 'by Brit Storm Shadow missile' in massive fiery blitz on occupied Crimea | The US Sun


https://www.the-sun.com/news/9153595/explosions-putin-black-sea-crimea/

Ukraine hits Black Sea navy HQ in Crimea missile attack, one dead | Crimea News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia
It's great that Ukraine can punch back every now and then. Hopefully, this results in an impending peace treaty that does not involve them giving up more territory.
tequila4kapp
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oski003 said:

bearister said:

Putin's feared Black Sea Fleet HQ is BLOWN UP 'by Brit Storm Shadow missile' in massive fiery blitz on occupied Crimea | The US Sun


https://www.the-sun.com/news/9153595/explosions-putin-black-sea-crimea/

Ukraine hits Black Sea navy HQ in Crimea missile attack, one dead | Crimea News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia
It's great that Ukraine can punch back every now and then. Hopefully, this results in an impending peace treaty that does not involve them giving up more territory.
Hopefully, this results in an impending peace treaty before NATO allies decide to deploy troops in Ukraine.
Unit2Sucks
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bearister said:

Putin's feared Black Sea Fleet HQ is BLOWN UP 'by Brit Storm Shadow missile' in massive fiery blitz on occupied Crimea | The US Sun


https://www.the-sun.com/news/9153595/explosions-putin-black-sea-crimea/

Ukraine hits Black Sea navy HQ in Crimea missile attack, one dead | Crimea News | Al Jazeera


https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/22/black-sea-navy-hq-hit-in-crimea-missile-attack-one-dead-russia
And NBC is reporting that Biden has finally agreed to provide ATACMS. I'm not sure why this wasn't announced as part of the aid package yesterday but whatever.

The other thing I don't quite get is why some people report that we don't have excess ATACMS while others report that we have at least 1,000 "obsolete" ATACMS which we would either need to refurbish or pay Lockheed to dismantle, but would be perfectly acceptable to Ukraine in their present form or with some refurbishment.

So much of what we have sent to Ukraine is just gathering dust as obsolete weaponry (because we spend so much money every year, we just keep creating more) and yet we pretend like the value is replacement cost. The true cost of supplying Ukraine is far less than what we have been presenting. The reason is that the Biden admin wants to appear generous and to make a show of it and perhaps to not reveal too much about our inventories. Given how large our military is and how easy it is to figure this stuff out though, I'm confident our enemies are fully aware of how much we have and that this sort of puffery is just making hesitant Americans think that our support for Ukraine is far more costly than it actually is.

In other news, ISW is reporting that UFA is getting into the 3rd layer of Russia's defense near Verbove, which is a significant breakthrough. Some are misinterpreting this breakthrough as meaning that Ukraine is beyond the defense (like a RB rumbling past a 10-man front on 4th down) but it's not that simple. Russia's third layer of defense spans dozens of KMs.


Zippergate
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Poll of Germans and French shows a plurality blame the USA/NATO/Europe, not Russia.

https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/08/21/us-nato-responsible-ukraine-war-germany-france-poll/
movielover
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bearister said:

The Texas oilmen cratered John Kerry's White House bid via their front, The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth.


Lurch?
movielover
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Cal88 said:



This figure includes over 50,000 war amputees.


Sounds like a Democrat city.
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