golden sloth said:

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Cal88 said:

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The military situation is untenable for Ukraine, I would guess a year or two.

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Eh, you said it would be a month or two back in spring of 2022.

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He also said in many iterations that war would inevitably be over with Russia the victor by Jan '24.

He has been wrong on so many points. And that's fine if he wasn't such a prlck about being wrong and had more of an even hand and admitted when he was wrong or made predictions with more of a "my guess is" attitude rather than "this is absolutely what will happen and you are ignorant and stupid if you question me" vibe.

Oh and some empathy for Ukraine and less Putin sycophancy would be good too.

blungld said:

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golden sloth said:

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Cal88 said:

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The military situation is untenable for Ukraine, I would guess a year or two.

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Eh, you said it would be a month or two back in spring of 2022.

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He also said in many iterations that war would inevitably be over with Russia the victor by Jan '24.

He has been wrong on so many points. And that's fine if he wasn't such a prlck about being wrong and had more of an even hand and admitted when he was wrong or made predictions with more of a "my guess is" attitude rather than "this is absolutely what will happen and you are ignorant and stupid if you question me" vibe.

Oh and some empathy for Ukraine and less Putin sycophancy would be good too.

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You might argue about the timing of the war, but the outcome, which I have correctly predicted based on having relied on serious sources, is fairly settled, the Russians have had the upper hand since the beginning of '23. I have been right in predicting this outcome while nearly all the MSM and NATO sources were pushing an unrealistic, ideologically-driven narrative of Ukraine defeating Russia on the battlefront through NATO wonderweapons and superior military acumen and motivation.

It is those same ideological blinders and lack of understanding of the battleground that create a misplaced and counterproductive empathy for Ukraine where you support the war to the last Ukrainian, ignoring basic aspects like the majority of Ukrainians not wanting to be sent to the trenches.

At some point down the road, the two parties will come to a negotiated settlement, better to do that now than down the road with hundreds of thousands more mostly Ukrainian casualties.

dimitrig said:

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Cal88 said:

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Home ownership rate in Russia is 92%:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139285/russia-home-ownership-rate

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What percentage have indoor plumbing?

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90.3% overall.

https://sdgs.un.org/basic-page/russian-federation-24783#:~:text=Russia%20reported%20that%20in%202014,were%20provided%20with%20running%20water.

Lack of indoor plumbing is a feature in some off-the-grid rural settings.

Not sure, as they are moving along and advancing in most of the other fronts, so they might just keep plugging away while containing and pushing back the Kursk offensive. Putin and their military leadership are risk-averse and weary of incurring heavy losses.

Cal88 said:

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It is those same ideological blinders and lack of understanding of the battleground that create a misplaced and counterproductive empathy for Ukraine where you support the war to the last Ukrainian...

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Can you please stop repeating this garbage? I know it makes sense to you but it is such backwards and illogical thinking.

It would be like me saying that if I support a person's right to free speech then I have empathy or agree with everything they say. It's absurd. Here let me lay it out for you for AGAIN.

Ukraine get to chose when they stop fighting. Period. Supporting their self-determination does not mean I don't care about Ukrainians dying or that every single Ukrainian should die. What an absolutely absurd claim.

I have empathy for a country WRONGFULLY invaded by a superpower out of greed and ego. That makes complete logical and ethical sense.

I have empathy for a country INVADED. They are the victims of aggression.

I have empathy and an ethical stance that Ukraine has the right to self determination.


None of these positions are irrational or misplaced or counterproductive. Quit twisting my (and others) positions to your bent pro-Russia logic. I DO NOT WANT ANOTHER UKRAINIAN OR RUSSIAN TO DIE. Clear? I am fully aware that more Ukrainians and Russians will die as long as there is a war. Ukrainians get to decide how long they defend their country and if they can repel the invasion.

All of any decent person's efforts should NOT be pressuring Ukraine to submit, but pressuring Russia to withdraw from their cruel and immoral war.

You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

Cal88 said:

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You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

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I agree, we should not ignore the civil war which was funded and encouraged by the Russians.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

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I agree, we should not ignore the civil war which was funded and encouraged by the Russians.

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Did the CIA really think they'd peacefully have all of Ukraine and Crimea after engineering their anti-Russian Coup in Kiev?

Cal88 said:

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You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

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I find this phrase almost laughable.
Please defend it, explain.

"fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture"

It seems to me that people who simply want to rule themselves are NOT antagonistic to outsiders. They're just like, leave us the F alone.

You're truly Russian, aren't you?
Er, um, I should ask that you're a Soviet, imperial, empire.

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

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I agree, we should not ignore the civil war which was funded and encouraged by the Russians.

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It wasn't, the Donbas people rose spontaneously in 2014 after their rights as a cultural minority were trampled by the Kiev regime.

The Donbas people actually resented Russia for not having directly come to their aid until 2022, when it became clear that the Kiev army was going to overrun them and eventually move in on Crimea. Throughout the 7 year civil war they were bombed by the Kiev government, who didn't hide the fact that they were going to break their will by having "the Donbas children cower in their basements", as stated in this speech by Ukrainian president Poroshenko:



Putin and Russia would have preferred having Ukraine and the Donbas as a buffer state, were satisfied with Misk II and and were very weary of getting involved directly, although they did provide material military support. However most of the military equipment used by the Donbas rebels, who were mostly Ukrainian army defectors, was from the Ukrainian army, whose local stockpiles they took over.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

---

I find this phrase almost laughable.
Please defend it, explain.

"fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture"

It seems to me that people who simply want to rule themselves are NOT antagonistic to outsiders. They're just like, leave us the F alone.

---

Classic Tom, low info yet over the top emotional. I've gone over the internal division of Ukraine ad nauseum on this thread.

This is a good rundown from poli sci prof Nicolai Petro who has covered that Ukrainian cultural cleavage and Ukrainian agency very well, from a constructive perspective of peaceful cohabitation:
(watch at 1.5x speed)

(also highly recommended viewing for @blungold)

Quote:

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You're truly Russian, aren't you?
Er, um, I should ask that you're a Soviet, imperial, empire.

---

Once again, another primer for you, 6 minute capsule from Mearsheimer.

Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

---

I agree, we should not ignore the civil war which was funded and encouraged by the Russians.

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It wasn't, the Donbas people rose spontaneously in 2014 after their rights as a cultural minority were trampled by the Kiev regime.

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LOL, sure they did.

oski003 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

---

I agree, we should not ignore the civil war which was funded and encouraged by the Russians.

---

Did the CIA really think they'd peacefully have all of Ukraine and Crimea after engineering their anti-Russian Coup in Kiev?

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What are you talking about?

sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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sycasey said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

---

I agree, we should not ignore the civil war which was funded and encouraged by the Russians.

---

It wasn't, the Donbas people rose spontaneously in 2014 after their rights as a cultural minority were trampled by the Kiev regime.

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LOL, sure they did.

---

I've posted several videos documenting the Donbas and Mariupol uprisings, mostly from western sources, those videos have apparently been yanked by youtube.

The one about the Odessa rebellion and its incredibly violent suppression (over 50 local Russophones burned alive by Ukrainian naionalists bussed over from the north) is still up:

Cal88 said:

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concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

---

I find this phrase almost laughable.
Please defend it, explain.

"fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture"

It seems to me that people who simply want to rule themselves are NOT antagonistic to outsiders. They're just like, leave us the F alone.

---

Classic Tom, low info yet over the top emotional. I've gone over the internal division of Ukraine ad nauseum on this thread.

This is a good rundown from poli sci prof Nicolai Petro who has covered that Ukrainian cultural cleavage and Ukrainian agency very well, from a constructive perspective of peaceful cohabitation:
(watch at 1.5x speed)

(also highly recommended viewing for @blungold)

Quote:

---

You're truly Russian, aren't you?
Er, um, I should ask that you're a Soviet, imperial, empire.

---

Once again, another primer for you, 6 minute capsule from Mearsheimer.

---

I'm watching. But argument number one starts with the Carter era. Dumb.

The second one goes back 150 years. Again, blaming foreigners.

But, excuse me….. does Ukraine not have its own national identity? It's own language? Yes, it does.

The Ukrainian language covered the entirety of the nation in 1900. But as a result of Soviet take over, the eastern Ukraine has a large percentage of Russian in it. This development is not the fault of western governments, as you seem to want to blame.

Ukraine is its own nation. Leave them to decide their own fate.

My mother's step mothers parents migrated to ohio from far western Ukraine. They spoke Ukraine and identified as Galician/Austrian/polish/Ukrainian according to various historical records. I don't know much more, other than they are buried in a Ukrainian orthodox churchyard in ohio. And my uncle always wanted the Ukrainian space on the Risk board. Ukrainian, not Russian.

I don't understand why you think Russia gets to waltz in and takeover, again.

This guy is really boring and I'm not watching anymore.

concordtom said:

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I'd really like to know your personal story. Clearly, you are not descended from the pilgrims.
And by me saying so, there's nothing wrong with that. You can be descended from whom ever you are descended from, and that's just fine! But I'd like to know, because I'm pretty damn sure it affects your perspective here, just like mine affects me.

Maybe if we can openly share our background, we can come to understand our different perspectives. Because the perspective you're throwing out there isn't making any sense to me.

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It's been said he is French. It's also been said he is a graduate of the class of 1988. I find no reason to believe anything the Russian propagandist says.

concordtom said:

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Maybe if we can openly share our background, we can come to understand our different perspectives. Because the perspective you're throwing out there isn't making any sense to me.

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His perspective only makes sense if the position is "Russia good" and "America bad" on every issue.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

---

You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

---

I find this phrase almost laughable.
Please defend it, explain.

"fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture"

It seems to me that people who simply want to rule themselves are NOT antagonistic to outsiders. They're just like, leave us the F alone.

---

Classic Tom, low info yet over the top emotional. I've gone over the internal division of Ukraine ad nauseum on this thread.

This is a good rundown from poli sci prof Nicolai Petro who has covered that Ukrainian cultural cleavage and Ukrainian agency very well, from a constructive perspective of peaceful cohabitation:
(watch at 1.5x speed)

(also highly recommended viewing for @blungold)

Quote:

---

You're truly Russian, aren't you?
Er, um, I should ask that you're a Soviet, imperial, empire.

---

Once again, another primer for you, 6 minute capsule from Mearsheimer.

---

I'm watching. But argument number one starts with the Carter era. Dumb.

The second one goes back 150 years. Again, blaming foreigners.

But, excuse me….. does Ukraine not have its own national identity? It's own language? Yes, it does.

The Ukrainian language covered the entirety of the nation in 1900. But as a result of Soviet take over, the eastern Ukraine has a large percentage of Russian in it. This development is not the fault of western governments, as you seem to want to blame.

Ukraine is its own nation. Leave them to decide their own fate.

My mother's step mothers parents migrated to ohio from far western Ukraine. They spoke Ukraine and identified as Galician/Austrian/polish/Ukrainian according to various historical records. I don't know much more, other than they are buried in a Ukrainian orthodox churchyard in ohio. And my uncle always wanted the Ukrainian space on the Risk board. Ukrainian, not Russian.

I don't understand why you think Russia gets to waltz in and takeover, again.

This guy is really boring and I'm not watching anymore.

---

Sorry, but that is a very poor, low-info take. Cities in Novorossiya like Mariupol, Odessa and Karkhov were founded in the 18th century as Russian cities, centuries before the Soviet era (Karkhov is even older though)..

Linguistic map of Ukraine:

Cal88 said:

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You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

---

The woman dressed sexy, she deserved to be molested. Blah blah blah.

I get that you have talked yourself into a corner and have lost your moral clarity but your post hoc, pro-Russian embroiled filter on events is just your rationalizing of a position I have no idea why one would take. Ukraine is not perfect, but nothing that happened internal to that country justifies this invasion. Only a truly busted compass would think so.

Bluto, why do you ignore CIA meddling?

blungld said:

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Cal88 said:

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You are ignoring here the influence of NATO over the Zelensky government. It is that influence that has scuttled the Istanbul peace agreement of April 22, and broken the Minsk II Agreements without which that war would have not occurred.

You are also ignoring the civil war dynamic which ignited in 2014, with the Donbas rising against the Kiev government, and the violent repression of protests in Mariupol and Odessa.

NATO's influence also manifested itself in the very shaping of the Zelensky government, which is ideologically driven by western Ukrainian/Galician nationalism that is fundamentally antagonistic to Russian culture. Zelensky run and won posing as a Russophone with a platform of peace and reconciliation, then pulled a 180.

---

The woman dressed sexy, she deserved to be molested. Blah blah blah.

I get that you have talked yourself into a corner and have lost your moral clarity but your post hoc, pro-Russian embroiled filter on events is just your rationalizing of a position I have no idea why one would take. Ukraine is not perfect, but nothing that happened internal to that country justifies this invasion. Only a truly busted compass would think so.

---

My take is very much the same as Mearsheimer's or Sachs', I don't think they have busted compasses or have painted themselves into a corner, to the contrary, they are being acknowledged today as the voices of common sense and peace in that conflict.

Yup. Invasion is inevitable. Just lie back and enjoy it, Ukrainians.

AunBear89 said:

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Yup. Invasion is inevitable. Just lie back and enjoy it, Ukrainians.

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Fund the Ukranian Nazis?

American left-liberals call everyone they disagree with a Nazi and fascist.

The one time they ever encountered real Nazis and fascists -- those who form the battalions who dominate much of Ukraine -- they demanded they be drowned in sophisticated arms and billions of dollars. https://t.co/UsAMPuvEbF

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) August 19, 2024

bear2034 said:

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AunBear89 said:

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Yup. Invasion is inevitable. Just lie back and enjoy it, Ukrainians.

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Fund the Ukranian Nazis?

American left-liberals call everyone they disagree with a Nazi and fascist.

The one time they ever encountered real Nazis and fascists -- those who form the battalions who dominate much of Ukraine -- they demanded they be drowned in sophisticated arms and billions of dollars. https://t.co/UsAMPuvEbF

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) August 19, 2024

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This is the episode that made the rounds last week, a Ukrainian soldier from the Kursk incursion wearing a vintage WW2 SS helmet harasses a local disheveled elderly Russian, calling him a swine in German and denigrating his Russian culture:

Yet another video has surfaced of a US-backed Ukrainian soldier wearing a n*zi SS helmet.

Why are Biden and Kamala giving millions of our dollars and weapons to neo-n*zi soldiers? pic.twitter.com/FD4QvnGTIQ

— Holding Dems Accountable (From the Left!) (@PushBidenLeft) August 19, 2024

#Zelensky’s selfie-taker in the Kursk region of Russia wears a Nazi German SS WWII helmet, while taking selfies! 🤮🤮🤮 #NoNazisInUkraine 👈click!! …#Ukraine #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineNazis #ZelenskyWarCriminal pic.twitter.com/Dbh9P84H1K

— Soror Inimicorum 🇷🇺🇺🇸☦️ (@SororInimicorum) August 15, 2024

Ukrainian armored force last winter:

Just a Ukrainian soldiers going into combat with Nazi salutes and Wehrmacht identification marks on their vehicles. US flag patch on the helmet, btw.

No Nazis in Ukraine, huh?

Not another dime and not another bullet for Zelensky's Banderite regime. pic.twitter.com/6nnFq5nufG

— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) February 20, 2024

Ukrainian soldiers interviewed by Italian TV:

More evidence that there are "No Nazis in Ukraine"

An Italian tv channel platforms a Ukrainian Nazi from the Armed Forces of Ukraine wearing a cap from Hitlers bodyguard unit.

Remarkable pic.twitter.com/FTl47pp2NV

— スパイダー 🕷️ 👉Spyder (@Exile__Prince) August 18, 2024

Great opportunity for everyone!

🚨BREAKING: PUTIN JUST DROPPED A BOMBSHELL DECREE—INVITING PEOPLE FROM ACROSS THE GLOBE WHO ARE FED UP WITH THE GLOBALIST, NEOLIBERAL NIGHTMARE TO SEEK SANCTUARY IN TRADITIONAL RUSSIA!

This new decree blows the lid off the establishment's agenda, letting freedom-loving folks… pic.twitter.com/lVPHeKWRIC

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) August 19, 2024

sycasey said:

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Great opportunity for everyone!

🚨BREAKING: PUTIN JUST DROPPED A BOMBSHELL DECREE—INVITING PEOPLE FROM ACROSS THE GLOBE WHO ARE FED UP WITH THE GLOBALIST, NEOLIBERAL NIGHTMARE TO SEEK SANCTUARY IN TRADITIONAL RUSSIA!

This new decree blows the lid off the establishment's agenda, letting freedom-loving folks… pic.twitter.com/lVPHeKWRIC

— Alex Jones (@RealAlexJones) August 19, 2024

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This is a win-win for us America loving Americans and the MAGAts