The Official Russian Invasion of Ukraine Thread

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bearister
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Sent to BI Lab for analysis:

Russia plotted terror attacks on airlines around the world, Poland's Tusk says POLITICO


https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-planned-terror-attacks-airlines-around-world-donald-tusk-says/
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philly1121
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Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

88 can you bring anything other than twitter or youtube to this wonderful discussion? Natasha Rostova? She's taking the name of a character from War and Peace? ugh

So basically, she tours a grocery store and of the 5 or 6 items she looks at all but one got more expensive? So bananas rose in price by 50%? Is that the takeaway? I'm struggling to see how this makes your case?

In any event, the comments on this video are pretty funny and spot on. And pretty much drag this video down for what it really is. Take Milka for example. It got cheaper in the video. But comments in the video are saying that Milka got cheaper because they changed the percentage of chocolate they use in their export recipe. So the price is less. But, you're also forgetting that the ruble has gone down in value. Most economists predict the ruble is going to decline further from 100 to 1 usd to 108 to 1 usd.

either way you look at it, combining higher prices with a decline in value of ruble make for a not so comforting future. Its not inflation, its "special inflationary operation". lmao

There are literally dozens of videos of vloggers shopping in Russian supermarkets, both locals and western expats, none of them show the kind of food scarcity or price spikes that you have said were taking place.

You claimed that "the price of potatoes rose by 95% between 2023 and 24" (without citing any source of course), but the video above shows that potato prices went up only 17% in 2 1/2 years. And that price today btw is 21 cents per pound (48c/kg). So potato prices went from 17 cents per pound in mid-2022 to 21 cents last month... Do you think that is going to engender food riots in Russia?

Your sources are war propaganda for the Slava Ukraini bubble, which thankfully, has been deflating lately as reality is finally starting to catch up.
88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?
Eastern Oregon Bear
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philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

88 can you bring anything other than twitter or youtube to this wonderful discussion? Natasha Rostova? She's taking the name of a character from War and Peace? ugh

So basically, she tours a grocery store and of the 5 or 6 items she looks at all but one got more expensive? So bananas rose in price by 50%? Is that the takeaway? I'm struggling to see how this makes your case?

In any event, the comments on this video are pretty funny and spot on. And pretty much drag this video down for what it really is. Take Milka for example. It got cheaper in the video. But comments in the video are saying that Milka got cheaper because they changed the percentage of chocolate they use in their export recipe. So the price is less. But, you're also forgetting that the ruble has gone down in value. Most economists predict the ruble is going to decline further from 100 to 1 usd to 108 to 1 usd.

either way you look at it, combining higher prices with a decline in value of ruble make for a not so comforting future. Its not inflation, its "special inflationary operation". lmao

There are literally dozens of videos of vloggers shopping in Russian supermarkets, both locals and western expats, none of them show the kind of food scarcity or price spikes that you have said were taking place.

You claimed that "the price of potatoes rose by 95% between 2023 and 24" (without citing any source of course), but the video above shows that potato prices went up only 17% in 2 1/2 years. And that price today btw is 21 cents per pound (48c/kg). So potato prices went from 17 cents per pound in mid-2022 to 21 cents last month... Do you think that is going to engender food riots in Russia?

Your sources are war propaganda for the Slava Ukraini bubble, which thankfully, has been deflating lately as reality is finally starting to catch up.
88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?
Comrade 88 was unavailable for comment, so I'm posting his reply for him.

? ? --!

OK, the board software apparently can't handle Cyrillic letters, so let's try this:

Vy polagayetes' na Boloto v poiskakh pravdy? Glubinnoye gosudarstvo? Kha-kha-kha!
Eastern Oregon Bear
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

88 can you bring anything other than twitter or youtube to this wonderful discussion? Natasha Rostova? She's taking the name of a character from War and Peace? ugh

So basically, she tours a grocery store and of the 5 or 6 items she looks at all but one got more expensive? So bananas rose in price by 50%? Is that the takeaway? I'm struggling to see how this makes your case?

In any event, the comments on this video are pretty funny and spot on. And pretty much drag this video down for what it really is. Take Milka for example. It got cheaper in the video. But comments in the video are saying that Milka got cheaper because they changed the percentage of chocolate they use in their export recipe. So the price is less. But, you're also forgetting that the ruble has gone down in value. Most economists predict the ruble is going to decline further from 100 to 1 usd to 108 to 1 usd.

either way you look at it, combining higher prices with a decline in value of ruble make for a not so comforting future. Its not inflation, its "special inflationary operation". lmao

There are literally dozens of videos of vloggers shopping in Russian supermarkets, both locals and western expats, none of them show the kind of food scarcity or price spikes that you have said were taking place.

You claimed that "the price of potatoes rose by 95% between 2023 and 24" (without citing any source of course), but the video above shows that potato prices went up only 17% in 2 1/2 years. And that price today btw is 21 cents per pound (48c/kg). So potato prices went from 17 cents per pound in mid-2022 to 21 cents last month... Do you think that is going to engender food riots in Russia?

Your sources are war propaganda for the Slava Ukraini bubble, which thankfully, has been deflating lately as reality is finally starting to catch up.
88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?
Never mind. Apparently the board software can't handle the Cyrillic alphabet.
Ignore. Accidentally hit reply instead of edit my post.
Big C
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BearGoggles said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

88 can you bring anything other than twitter or youtube to this wonderful discussion? Natasha Rostova? She's taking the name of a character from War and Peace? ugh

So basically, she tours a grocery store and of the 5 or 6 items she looks at all but one got more expensive? So bananas rose in price by 50%? Is that the takeaway? I'm struggling to see how this makes your case?

In any event, the comments on this video are pretty funny and spot on. And pretty much drag this video down for what it really is. Take Milka for example. It got cheaper in the video. But comments in the video are saying that Milka got cheaper because they changed the percentage of chocolate they use in their export recipe. So the price is less. But, you're also forgetting that the ruble has gone down in value. Most economists predict the ruble is going to decline further from 100 to 1 usd to 108 to 1 usd.

either way you look at it, combining higher prices with a decline in value of ruble make for a not so comforting future. Its not inflation, its "special inflationary operation". lmao

There are literally dozens of videos of vloggers shopping in Russian supermarkets, both locals and western expats, none of them show the kind of food scarcity or price spikes that you have said were taking place.

You claimed that "the price of potatoes rose by 95% between 2023 and 24" (without citing any source of course), but the video above shows that potato prices went up only 17% in 2 1/2 years. And that price today btw is 21 cents per pound (48c/kg). So potato prices went from 17 cents per pound in mid-2022 to 21 cents last month... Do you think that is going to engender food riots in Russia?

Your sources are war propaganda for the Slava Ukraini bubble, which thankfully, has been deflating lately as reality is finally starting to catch up.
What would happen to a Russia based vlogger who posted negative stories about Putin, the Russian economy, or the Ukraine war? Would they be poisoned or imprisoned? Hard to say. What we do know is that they would not be tolerated by the Putin regime.

That vlogger was hauled in to have a little talk with Putin, after which time he stood and said, "Don't get up; I'll let myself out... of the window."

ta dum dum
philly1121
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

philly1121 said:

88 can you bring anything other than twitter or youtube to this wonderful discussion? Natasha Rostova? She's taking the name of a character from War and Peace? ugh

So basically, she tours a grocery store and of the 5 or 6 items she looks at all but one got more expensive? So bananas rose in price by 50%? Is that the takeaway? I'm struggling to see how this makes your case?

In any event, the comments on this video are pretty funny and spot on. And pretty much drag this video down for what it really is. Take Milka for example. It got cheaper in the video. But comments in the video are saying that Milka got cheaper because they changed the percentage of chocolate they use in their export recipe. So the price is less. But, you're also forgetting that the ruble has gone down in value. Most economists predict the ruble is going to decline further from 100 to 1 usd to 108 to 1 usd.

either way you look at it, combining higher prices with a decline in value of ruble make for a not so comforting future. Its not inflation, its "special inflationary operation". lmao

There are literally dozens of videos of vloggers shopping in Russian supermarkets, both locals and western expats, none of them show the kind of food scarcity or price spikes that you have said were taking place.

You claimed that "the price of potatoes rose by 95% between 2023 and 24" (without citing any source of course), but the video above shows that potato prices went up only 17% in 2 1/2 years. And that price today btw is 21 cents per pound (48c/kg). So potato prices went from 17 cents per pound in mid-2022 to 21 cents last month... Do you think that is going to engender food riots in Russia?

Your sources are war propaganda for the Slava Ukraini bubble, which thankfully, has been deflating lately as reality is finally starting to catch up.
88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?
Comrade 88 was unavailable for comment, so I'm posting his reply for him.

? ? --!

OK, the board software apparently can't handle Cyrillic letters, so let's try this:

Vy polagayetes' na Boloto v poiskakh pravdy? Glubinnoye gosudarstvo? Kha-kha-kha!
No, I don't rely on the "deep state" for info. I'm not sure what that means. Like I take my news from CNN or ABC?
DiabloWags
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philly1121 said:



88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?

Comrade 88 and Zipper are nothing but Russian trolls.
Totally clueless and in fantasy land.

Rosstat also reported (via Reuters) just before Xmas that INFLATION was running at 9.5% for 2024.
As a result, their interest rates are at 21%

The central bank's monetary policy department's head Andrei Gangan told the Interfax news agency on Dec. 24 that full-year inflation will be between 9.6% and 9.8%.

Russia's doing Great!

Russia's inflation reaches 9.5% this year, weekly data shows | Reuters
Zippergate
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Inflation is 9% so therefore what? Russia is on the brink and sanctions are a success? The massive hit to US credibility has been worth it? That's quite the analysis.
philly1121
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Actually Zipper, you, 88, 34 - are the ones trying to drag down US credibility. With your absurdities about the Russian economy. You should go long on Gazprom. Russian bots have better takes than you.
Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

philly1121 said:



88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?

Comrade 88 and Zipper are nothing but Russian trolls.
Totally clueless and in fantasy land.

Rosstat also reported (via Reuters) just before Xmas that INFLATION was running at 9.5% for 2024.
As a result, their interest rates are at 21%

The central bank's monetary policy department's head Andrei Gangan told the Interfax news agency on Dec. 24 that full-year inflation will be between 9.6% and 9.8%.

Russia's doing Great!

Russia's inflation reaches 9.5% this year, weekly data shows | Reuters


Inflation in Russia has been in the high single digits, however salaries have been growing in double digits, at about twice the inflation rate. The purchasing power of Russian workers has been rising.

So the whole premise of food riots because the price of potatoes has gone up from 17 cents per pound to 20something is pretty stupid, but par for the course for card-carrying members of the Pro-war Low-info Russophobe Bear Insider Club.

Here's the real picture:

Carnegie Endowment:
Russia's Soaring Wartime Salaries Are Bolstering Working-Class Support for Putin
Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/russia-war-income?lang=en

Quote:

it can be said with confidence that real incomes have risen faster than inflation since the full-scale invasion.

How are Russians spending this money? The answer seems to be that they are both spending more and saving more (a trend that the head of Russia's central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has described as odd).

According to the central bank, the amount of rubles held in Russian bank accounts climbed 19.7 percent to 7.4 trillion in 2023 (nearly three times what it was in 2022), buoyed by high interest rates. In particular, there has been growth in the category of deposits worth between 3 million and 10 million rubles (both in terms of their total value and in the number of people holding such deposits). In other words, a lot of people are prepared to hold sizable sums in the bank, and they appear confident that there will be no disaster in the near future.

Quote:

Russia Real Wage Growth Quickens to 8.5% in December
Real wages in Russia rose by 8.5% year-on-year in December 2023, accelerating from a 7.2% advance in November. It marked the 15th consecutive month of real wage increases. Meanwhile, average nominal wages grew 16.6% from a year earlier to 103,815 roubles and jumped by 41.5% over the month. The annual inflation rate in Russia was 7.4% in December 2023. Real wages grew by 7.8% in 2023. less
2024-02-28

Quote:

Real wages, which are adjusted for inflation and reported with a one-month lag, leapt 12.9% year-on-year in March, the statistics service, Rosstat said, above analysts' expectations.


Zippergate
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Yeah, central bankers are worried about their dollar holdings because of some random guys on the internet, not that their assets can be seized and they can be cut out of the world banking system at any moment. Riiiiight.
movielover
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Zippergate
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Yup, once you understand that "shrinkage" is a feature, not a bug, everything begins to make sense. When the Ukraine hustle does end, you can bet they have another one lined up to replace it.

AunBear89
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What happened to "over in 24 hours"?
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
philly1121
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AunBear89 said:

What happened to "over in 24 hours"?
That went out the door with all of his other lies - reducing inflation, one big beautiful bill. Tech bros have the government now.
Cal88
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The new version is "over in 6 months", which is still much, much better than the previous management's version of "to the last Ukrainian".
philly1121
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Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

philly1121 said:



88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?

Comrade 88 and Zipper are nothing but Russian trolls.
Totally clueless and in fantasy land.

Rosstat also reported (via Reuters) just before Xmas that INFLATION was running at 9.5% for 2024.
As a result, their interest rates are at 21%

The central bank's monetary policy department's head Andrei Gangan told the Interfax news agency on Dec. 24 that full-year inflation will be between 9.6% and 9.8%.

Russia's doing Great!

Russia's inflation reaches 9.5% this year, weekly data shows | Reuters


Inflation in Russia has been in the high single digits, however salaries have been growing in double digits, at about twice the inflation rate. The purchasing power of Russian workers has been rising.

So the whole premise of food riots because the price of potatoes has gone up from 17 cents per pound to 20something is pretty stupid, but par for the course for card-carrying members of the Pro-war Low-info Russophobe Bear Insider Club.

Here's the real picture:

Carnegie Endowment:
Russia's Soaring Wartime Salaries Are Bolstering Working-Class Support for Putin
Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/russia-war-income?lang=en

Quote:

it can be said with confidence that real incomes have risen faster than inflation since the full-scale invasion.

How are Russians spending this money? The answer seems to be that they are both spending more and saving more (a trend that the head of Russia's central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has described as odd).

According to the central bank, the amount of rubles held in Russian bank accounts climbed 19.7 percent to 7.4 trillion in 2023 (nearly three times what it was in 2022), buoyed by high interest rates. In particular, there has been growth in the category of deposits worth between 3 million and 10 million rubles (both in terms of their total value and in the number of people holding such deposits). In other words, a lot of people are prepared to hold sizable sums in the bank, and they appear confident that there will be no disaster in the near future.

Quote:

Russia Real Wage Growth Quickens to 8.5% in December
Real wages in Russia rose by 8.5% year-on-year in December 2023, accelerating from a 7.2% advance in November. It marked the 15th consecutive month of real wage increases. Meanwhile, average nominal wages grew 16.6% from a year earlier to 103,815 roubles and jumped by 41.5% over the month. The annual inflation rate in Russia was 7.4% in December 2023. Real wages grew by 7.8% in 2023. less
2024-02-28

Quote:

Real wages, which are adjusted for inflation and reported with a one-month lag, leapt 12.9% year-on-year in March, the statistics service, Rosstat said, above analysts' expectations.



One word 88: bubble

This wage growth is entirely supported by the government. From economist Natalya Zubarevich in an interview with Russian Bild:

"The dampening effect will slowly manifest itself, because this crazy increase [in wages] is not supported by labor productivity growth, but is the result of huge [injections] of money, mainly from the federal budget, into the economy, mainly into the military-industrial complex, but spreading to other types of activity," she said.

According to Zubarevich, many companies will stop raising wages in the future, with inflation eating into workers' real incomes. Rising wages, inflationary increases, 21% interest rates. If this were the US, you'd be yelling to overthrow the government. lol
DiabloWags
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Comrade 88

Cal88
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philly1121 said:

Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

philly1121 said:



88, one vlogger? One. One store? ok. yeah. I'm going to believe Natasha Rostova - the Tolstoy shopper. lol

The statistics came from Rosstat - Federal State Statistics Service. The official Russian statistics service that is responsible for tracking economic statistics. For some fun tables to look at, check the link below. Scroll down a little bit and you will see the table, Largest Price Increases in Food Stuffs.

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-food-prices-inflation-interest/33244563.html

Comrade 88, your dedication to Mother Russia is good. Not great. Just good. But we must turn to precious energies to Trump deliver needed victory, yes? Must move you to monitor butter aisle in Perekrestok in St. Petersburg, da?

Comrade 88 and Zipper are nothing but Russian trolls.
Totally clueless and in fantasy land.

Rosstat also reported (via Reuters) just before Xmas that INFLATION was running at 9.5% for 2024.
As a result, their interest rates are at 21%

The central bank's monetary policy department's head Andrei Gangan told the Interfax news agency on Dec. 24 that full-year inflation will be between 9.6% and 9.8%.

Russia's doing Great!

Russia's inflation reaches 9.5% this year, weekly data shows | Reuters


Inflation in Russia has been in the high single digits, however salaries have been growing in double digits, at about twice the inflation rate. The purchasing power of Russian workers has been rising.

So the whole premise of food riots because the price of potatoes has gone up from 17 cents per pound to 20something is pretty stupid, but par for the course for card-carrying members of the Pro-war Low-info Russophobe Bear Insider Club.

Here's the real picture:

Carnegie Endowment:
Russia's Soaring Wartime Salaries Are Bolstering Working-Class Support for Putin
Many formerly badly paid Russian blue-collar workers have seen their salaries skyrocket since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, far outpacing inflation.

https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/05/russia-war-income?lang=en

Quote:

it can be said with confidence that real incomes have risen faster than inflation since the full-scale invasion.

How are Russians spending this money? The answer seems to be that they are both spending more and saving more (a trend that the head of Russia's central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, has described as odd).

According to the central bank, the amount of rubles held in Russian bank accounts climbed 19.7 percent to 7.4 trillion in 2023 (nearly three times what it was in 2022), buoyed by high interest rates. In particular, there has been growth in the category of deposits worth between 3 million and 10 million rubles (both in terms of their total value and in the number of people holding such deposits). In other words, a lot of people are prepared to hold sizable sums in the bank, and they appear confident that there will be no disaster in the near future.

Quote:

Russia Real Wage Growth Quickens to 8.5% in December
Real wages in Russia rose by 8.5% year-on-year in December 2023, accelerating from a 7.2% advance in November. It marked the 15th consecutive month of real wage increases. Meanwhile, average nominal wages grew 16.6% from a year earlier to 103,815 roubles and jumped by 41.5% over the month. The annual inflation rate in Russia was 7.4% in December 2023. Real wages grew by 7.8% in 2023. less
2024-02-28

Quote:

Real wages, which are adjusted for inflation and reported with a one-month lag, leapt 12.9% year-on-year in March, the statistics service, Rosstat said, above analysts' expectations.



One word 88: bubble

This wage growth is entirely supported by the government. From economist Natalya Zubarevich in an interview with Russian Bild:

"The dampening effect will slowly manifest itself, because this crazy increase [in wages] is not supported by labor productivity growth, but is the result of huge [injections] of money, mainly from the federal budget, into the economy, mainly into the military-industrial complex, but spreading to other types of activity," she said.

According to Zubarevich, many companies will stop raising wages in the future, with inflation eating into workers' real incomes. Rising wages, inflationary increases, 21% interest rates. If this were the US, you'd be yelling to overthrow the government. lol


That economist also predicted 3 years ago that the Russian economy would collapse from sanctions. Apparently she is a favorite among pro-NATO sources like Bild or the WSJ:

"Meet Natalia Zubarevich, a Russian Who Speaks Truth to Power

She's a podcast regular, running down the reasons sanctions over the war in Ukraine are working despite Putin's claims."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-natalia-zubarevich-a-russian-who-speaks-truth-to-power-santions-political-views-economy-putin-kremlin-11656359132

She's been very, very wrong on that prediction, as 3 years later the sanctions did not work. She predicted for example that the Russian auto industry would collapse, it is now back to production levels above pre-war levels. Several other key sectors have been resurgent as well. Russia is even making legacy chips today. The sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports have not worked, in fact Europe right now is buying more Russian gas, at higher prices (LNG instead of piped gas).



It also goes to show that dissidence is allowed in Russian academia, that professor hasn't lost her university position despite her continued negative assessments of Russian policy.

As to her prediction above about Russian economy cratering, I think she will be wrong once again, because the war is not likely to go on that much longer, Russia is pressing its military advantage and will overwhelm Ukraine within a year or two, at which point the Russian military budget will draw back.

Ultimately, even if the flows of oil and gas to Europe are disrupted, Russia will be diverting most of its fossil fuel exports to China, which will pay a premium for Russian oil and gas as it cannot be blockaded and will be sent in through pipelines (minimal transport/transit costs through Mongolia).
Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

Comrade 88



Your graphics are nearly as bad as your assessments on the Russian economy.
philly1121
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Zlatti71 again 88? This comrade is complete Russian pro Putin

You know 88, I could find 10 economists that will say the same thing I quoted from Natalya. The main point here is this wage push is artificial. That's the takeaway. And why? Because it is being funded by the Russian government. I thought you were a free market guy? I thought you were against minimum wages and wages being set by government?

Russia state funding of arms affiliated industries to attract workers into those industries. Wage increases, bonuses, incentives. These are all happening in the military affiliated arms industries.

And that same Carnegie Endowment article you cited? Well, the devil is in the details. Let's get to it. So, what are Russians spending with their newfound wealth? They're buying houses. And how are they doing that? Well of course this demand is being driven by state subsidized mortgage programs. Article says Russians are happy to put down 30% on a 20 year mortgage. This demand shows that they are counting on continued state support. Hmm...

And what else are they spending their new wealth on? Gambling. From the article: In total, more than 15 million people gambled (about one in seven Russians over the age of 18) over the course of the year. At the same time, inflation means the size of the average bet is growing. (uh oh!) Current trends have even led to calls to raise the legal limit on a single bet from 600,000 rubles to 1.4 million rubles.

And who are the winners of this awesome economy? The people you'd expect: milling machine operator, machinist, welder, weaver, and garment worker. Truck drivers as well. But here's the takeaway from this article you cited for which I post the last two paragraphs of it:

From even this brief analysis, it's clear that the main financial beneficiaries of the war in Ukraine (excluding security officials and soldiers) are those whose professions were long considered low paid and low status (the professions listed above). Now they enjoy high salaries and a surfeit of attention from both employers struggling to fill job vacancies, and the state as a whole.

KICKER----> More money in their pockets makes these peoplewho are not accustomed to self-reflection and who do not have easy access to independent sources of informationeven more susceptible to propaganda. Putin's public image provides them with a comforting feeling of stability, and a sense that their leaders are making the right decisions. It's unsurprising that the level of support for the Russian regime among these groups is only growing.

88, this is nothing new, nor does it refute what I have been posting. Its a bubble. Its wartime affiliated industries that are making gains. And as long as this holds out, they will support Putin because they are, as the article says, susceptible to his propaganda.
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Comrade 88



Your graphics are nearly as bad as your assessments on the Russian economy.


Gazprom castrated.

https://english.nv.ua/business/energy-giant-gazprom-in-decline-reliant-on-china-and-turkey-ex-naftogaz-chief-says-50482150.html
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Comrade 88



Your graphics are nearly as bad as your assessments on the Russian economy.


Gazprom castrated.
Says former Naftogaz CEO.

https://english.nv.ua/business/energy-giant-gazprom-in-decline-reliant-on-china-and-turkey-ex-naftogaz-chief-says-50482150.html
AunBear89
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Cal88 said:

The new version is "over in 6 months", which is still much, much better than the previous management's version of "to the last Ukrainian".

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
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