sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Cal88 said:
sycasey said:
Former general Leonid here is saying that the Russian economy and industry are collapsing, that Russia is diplomatically isolated and that China is not allied with Russia. All of these statements are completely false. I know you weren't an econ or BusAd major Sy, but honestly, is this the currency of a country whose economy is collapsing?
The Ruble strengthened ~45% vs USD in 2025, driven by increased domestic production reducing imports, and de-dollarization in trade. In fact the Ruble might be too strong for the Russians' liking, they will probably start lowering their interest rates at this point.
Thread:
even Unit2Sucks would have been embarrassed to use a source like this as his authority on the Russian economy...
Imagine posting this with a straight face after providing the Twitter wisdom of "Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil," a.k.a. ivan_8848
That guy hasn't done any analyses or expressed personal opinions, he has merely stated a basic fact about the Russian economy, that the Ruble is up 45% vs the US$ this year, currently trading at 78/$, quoting a Bloomberg article on that subject.
What part of this tweet do you disagree with??
Your guy on the other hand is a goofball who is serving the same kind of "Russia is collapsing" propaganda slop that has constantly failed the reality test over and over for 4 years and counting.
When you can't confront basic facts like how the Ruble has been the strongest currency in the world this year, you have to resort to BSing.
"That guy" has an argument that the Russian economy is in a precarious position, thanks to heavy deficit war spending and will likely not be able to survive another shock. He backs this up with data and his interpretation. Is he right? Maybe, maybe not. We see "Russia is great and Putin is smart" arguments here all the time, so I thought I'd provide some cogent analysis to the contrary.
I know the Cal88 position is always "any bad claim about Russia is false or misleading" (never mind that this position fell apart when Russia invaded Ukraine like all of your favorite sources said they wouldn't), so I don't expect you to be convinced. I provide the argument for balance and discussion.
The incontournable reality has been that almost all claims that have been repeatedly made the last 4 years about Russia facing imminent economic or military collapse turned out to be complete BS.
Your guy has made long claims with dodgy data that
completely ignores most basic aspects about the Russian economy, like the remarkable strength of their currency, or the fact that their budget deficit has been relatively small despite their increase in military spending,
far smaller than that of the US, UK, France etc, and that their debt to gdp ratio is tiny in comparison with that of other industrialized countries, 20%, vs well over 100% for the US, UK, France, Italy etc.
It also ignores the huge capital flight to Russia from its 0.1%, well over a trillion dollar if you add to the billionaires the capital of the relatively large class of formerly exiled Russian multimillionaires.
