MinotStateBeav said:

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calbear93 said:

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Genocide Joe said:

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Vivek Ramaswamy drops out of the GOP primary and immediately endorses Donald Trump for President. pic.twitter.com/f2cpJDGJJQ

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) January 16, 2024

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Not much of a shocker. I think he is hitching his wagon on being the VP but doesn't seem like Trump is still a fan. Maybe he will get a cabinet position if Trump wins.

It does seem like it will be Biden v Trump again. How fantastic for the country.

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I'd like to see him as the commerce secretary imo.

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I think he would make a better press secretary. Not very impressed with his commerce experience.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

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I am saddened that over 50% of GOP voters in Iowa chose Trump.

I just don't even know what to say about that.

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49% of the highly conservative GOP caucus in Iowa voted against Trump. The caucus goers represent fairly diehard voters (about ~15% of Iowa voters) and Trump only got 56k total votes. In 2016, when he lost the Iowa caucus (don't worry, he claimed fraud), he received 45k votes. 56k votes for an incumbent like Trump shows a lack of enthusiasm.

Trump won but I'm sure he's throwing ketchup plates at walls right now.

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When was the last time anyone in a highly contested primary won over 50% in Iowa? I am rooting for Haley but don't think there is any chance it will be anything other than Trump against a highly vulnerable Biden.

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It's a weird question because I don't think this is a highly contested primary. In 2020 there was no Iowa caucus because Trump was the incumbent. He still is the GOP incumbent and we all know he will be the nominee unless he dies.

The main learning from the caucus is that even amongst the sorts of die-hards that vote in it, there were still plenty of signs of weakness for Turmp.

Biden isn't vulnerable to Trump and once the general campaign kicks off (sooner the better from my perspective), it will be harder for the media to hide the fact that Biden is going to win again.

As much as the media loves a horse race, this one is unlikely to come down to the wire. Trump is less popular with his base than he was in 2020. The act has worn thin and he's got nothing left to sell.

Here's an anecdote:

This was the most surprising revelation to me after attending a Trump rally for the first time in four years: https://t.co/387gwgMTZs pic.twitter.com/nDgA4XejEd

— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) January 15, 2024

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

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I am saddened that over 50% of GOP voters in Iowa chose Trump.

I just don't even know what to say about that.

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49% of the highly conservative GOP caucus in Iowa voted against Trump. The caucus goers represent fairly diehard voters (about ~15% of Iowa voters) and Trump only got 56k total votes. In 2016, when he lost the Iowa caucus (don't worry, he claimed fraud), he received 45k votes. 56k votes for an incumbent like Trump shows a lack of enthusiasm.

Trump won but I'm sure he's throwing ketchup plates at walls right now.

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When was the last time anyone in a highly contested primary won over 50% in Iowa? I am rooting for Haley but don't think there is any chance it will be anything other than Trump against a highly vulnerable Biden.

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It's a weird question because I don't think this is a highly contested primary. In 2020 there was no Iowa caucus because Trump was the incumbent. He still is the GOP incumbent and we all know he will be the nominee unless he dies.

The main learning from the caucus is that even amongst the sorts of die-hards that vote in it, there were still plenty of signs of weakness for Turmp.

Biden isn't vulnerable to Trump and once the general campaign kicks off (sooner the better from my perspective), it will be harder for the media to hide the fact that Biden is going to win again.

As much as the media loves a horse race, this one is unlikely to come down to the wire. Trump is less popular with his base than he was in 2020. The act has worn thin and he's got nothing left to sell.

Here's an anecdote:

This was the most surprising revelation to me after attending a Trump rally for the first time in four years: https://t.co/387gwgMTZs pic.twitter.com/nDgA4XejEd

— McKay Coppins (@mckaycoppins) January 15, 2024

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I didn't know the data so just looked it up in Wikipedia.

• 1976 (January 19): Gerald Ford (45%) and Ronald Reagan (43%)
• 1980 (January 21): George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%)
• 1984 (February 20): Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
• 1988 (February 8): Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pete DuPont (7%)
• 1992 (February 10): George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
• 1996 (February 12): Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)
• 2000 (January 24): George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)
• 2004 (January 19): George W. Bush (unopposed)
• 2008 (January 3): Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)
• 2012 (January 3): Rick Santorum (25%), Mitt Romney (25%), Ron Paul (21%), Newt Gingrich (13%), Rick Perry (10%), Michele Bachmann (5%), and Jon Huntsman (1%)[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#cite_note-foxnews1-39][39][/url]
• 2016 (February 1): Ted Cruz (28%), Donald Trump (24%), Marco Rubio (23%), Ben Carson (9%), Rand Paul (5%), Jeb Bush (3%), Carly Fiorina (2%), and others (7%)[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#cite_note-57][57][/url][url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#cite_note-2016electioncentral-54][54][/url]
• 2020 (February 3): Donald Trump (97%), Bill Weld (1%), Joe Walsh (1%), and others (1%)[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#cite_note-58][58][/url][url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#cite_note-59][59][/url]
• 2024 (January 15): Donald Trump (51%), Ron DeSantis (21%), Nikki Haley (19%), Vivek Ramaswamy (8%), and others (1%)[url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#cite_note-60][60][/url]

I guess we will have to see later this year. A lot of time still, but I guess I am confused why you don't think Biden is vulnerable to Trump in the purple states.

I think Biden is highly vulnerable in Michigan, Arizona, and Georgia as well as Nevada. He barely won those, and I think he has lost ground in those states. He is also potentially vulnerable in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Don't see any red states from 2020 flipping for Biden.

calbear93 said:

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If I had to guess, Trump will be the next President. I think Biden has turned off enough people who may have begrudgingly voted for him in the purple states that he will lose some of the key states that he won in 2020, especially in the Midwest. I hope to be proven wrong, but I am skeptical that Biden will win.

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Ergo, you are going to do something about it and actually vote for Biden over Trump?

OsoDorado said:

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calbear93 said:

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If I had to guess, Trump will be the next President. I think Biden has turned off enough people who may have begrudgingly voted for him in the purple states that he will lose some of the key states that he won in 2020, especially in the Midwest. I hope to be proven wrong, but I am skeptical that Biden will win.

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Ergo, you are going to do something about it and actually vote for Biden over Trump?

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Yes, I think I already stated that I would. Not appreciative of all these purity test because it really is none of your business. Anyway, I live in California so it really doesn't matter. It will be a few states that will decide the election. The west coast states are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in a winner takes all electoral election.

sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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I suspect many of those who voted for DeSantis and maybe Haley in Iowa would vote for Trump over Biden.

So, the six or seven states that Biden barely won that will decide the 2024 election - Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota - do you think Biden is even more popular over Trump in those states now? Forget about non-competitive states, and Florida is no longer even a battle ground state. These seven will decide who wins.

calbear93 said:

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OsoDorado said:

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calbear93 said:

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If I had to guess, Trump will be the next President. I think Biden has turned off enough people who may have begrudgingly voted for him in the purple states that he will lose some of the key states that he won in 2020, especially in the Midwest. I hope to be proven wrong, but I am skeptical that Biden will win.

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Ergo, you are going to do something about it and actually vote for Biden over Trump?

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Yes, I think I already stated that I would. Not appreciative of all these purity test because it really is none of your business. Anyway, I live in California so it really doesn't matter. It will be a few states that will decide the election. The west coast states are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in a winner takes all electoral election.

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Sorry, but I didn't catch the post(s) where you said you would vote for Biden over Trump. IOW, my question was sincerely motivated rather than a "purity test" ....

OsoDorado said:

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calbear93 said:

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OsoDorado said:

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calbear93 said:

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If I had to guess, Trump will be the next President. I think Biden has turned off enough people who may have begrudgingly voted for him in the purple states that he will lose some of the key states that he won in 2020, especially in the Midwest. I hope to be proven wrong, but I am skeptical that Biden will win.

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Ergo, you are going to do something about it and actually vote for Biden over Trump?

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Yes, I think I already stated that I would. Not appreciative of all these purity test because it really is none of your business. Anyway, I live in California so it really doesn't matter. It will be a few states that will decide the election. The west coast states are not going to vote for anyone other than Biden in a winner takes all electoral election.

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Sorry, but I didn't catch the post(s) where you said you would vote for Biden over Trump. IOW, my question was sincerely motivated rather than a "purity test" ....

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Don't get me wrong. My vote for Biden would be a meaningless protest vote in California against Trump as opposed to any support for Biden.

calbear93 said:

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sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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I suspect many of those who voted for DeSantis and maybe Haley in Iowa would vote for Trump over Biden.

So, the six or seven states that Biden barely won that will decide the 2024 election - Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota - do you think Biden is even more popular over Trump in those states now? Forget about non-competitive states, and Florida is no longer even a battle ground state. These seven will decide who wins.

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First of all, I was just commenting on the primary results and not predicting the general election outcome. I think it's not shocking that Trump is getting a higher percentage of the vote in the Republican primary given that he is functionally a Republican incumbent.

As for the general election, I think Biden trails RIGHT NOW in some of these states. I also think the current polling looks pretty tenuous, given that a lot of the shift in Trump's direction (vs 2020) relies on young people who (1) have not supported Republicans before and (2) often don't show up to vote at all. We need to see what happens when it becomes clear to casual voters that it really is going to be Biden-Trump again. Right now a lot of people are just generally registering dissatisfaction with Biden in these polls.

sycasey said:

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calbear93 said:

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sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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I suspect many of those who voted for DeSantis and maybe Haley in Iowa would vote for Trump over Biden.

So, the six or seven states that Biden barely won that will decide the 2024 election - Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota - do you think Biden is even more popular over Trump in those states now? Forget about non-competitive states, and Florida is no longer even a battle ground state. These seven will decide who wins.

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First of all, I was just commenting on the primary results and not predicting the general election outcome. I think it's not shocking that Trump is getting a higher percentage of the vote in the Republican primary given that he is functionally a Republican incumbent.

As for the general election, I think Biden trails RIGHT NOW in some of these states. I also think the current polling looks pretty tenuous, given that a lot of the shift in Trump's direction (vs 2020) relies on young people who (1) have not supported Republicans before and (2) often don't show up to vote at all. We need to see what happens when it becomes clear to casual voters that it really is going to be Biden-Trump again. Right now a lot of people are just generally registering dissatisfaction with Biden in these polls.

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You and I agree that there is a lot that can change the election, and November is long ways from here.

Trump running again is a difficult to measure since he is sort of an incumbent but he also has lost before. I believe Cleveland was the last president to lose and then run again. Most losers go away quietly like Carter and the first Bush, and so hard to calibrate relative to other elections.

But I think it's pretty clear that Trump will be the Republican candidate, and that Biden has to keep most of the battleground states he won in 2020.

Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

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I am saddened that over 50% of GOP voters in Iowa chose Trump.

I just don't even know what to say about that.

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49% of the highly conservative GOP caucus in Iowa voted against Trump. The caucus goers represent fairly diehard voters (about ~15% of Iowa voters) and Trump only got 56k total votes. In 2016, when he lost the Iowa caucus (don't worry, he claimed fraud), he received 45k votes. 56k votes for an incumbent like Trump shows a lack of enthusiasm.

Trump won but I'm sure he's throwing ketchup plates at walls right now.

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No non-incumbent GOP candidate has ever achieved that kind of number in Iowa. The only people throwing ketchup plates at walls are the people in Cassidy Hutchinson's imagination.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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dimitrig said:

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I am saddened that over 50% of GOP voters in Iowa chose Trump.

I just don't even know what to say about that.

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49% of the highly conservative GOP caucus in Iowa voted against Trump. The caucus goers represent fairly diehard voters (about ~15% of Iowa voters) and Trump only got 56k total votes. In 2016, when he lost the Iowa caucus (don't worry, he claimed fraud), he received 45k votes. 56k votes for an incumbent like Trump shows a lack of enthusiasm.

Trump won but I'm sure he's throwing ketchup plates at walls right now.

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When was the last time anyone in a highly contested primary won over 50% in Iowa? I am rooting for Haley but don't think there is any chance it will be anything other than Trump against a highly vulnerable Biden.

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Haley has a great chance of winning the whole enchilada. Biden came in 4th in Iowa in 2020 and ended up receiving a record 81 million votes.

Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

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Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

Personally, I don't think it will be easy for Biden but I'd still consider him the favorite to win re-election.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

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Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

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Did you seriously think Trump wasn't going to win the nomination? The vast majority of Republicans believe he is the incumbent. He has been bragging about being up 50 or 80 points on these other clowns. It's been obvious since day one that he wasn't going to lose to these people.

Whet you say about Trump in 2020 before the pandemic is absolutely true for Biden now. People value stability and Biden provides it. The economy is doing well. For the first time in decades, we aren't at war. Biden has stopped the indiscriminate drone strikes of his predecessors. Most of Trump's knocks on Biden are completely fabricated because he has nothing to hang his hat on.

As you are well aware, Biden has been able to steward meaningful bipartisan legislation like the CHIPS Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs act and the inflation reduction act. Apart from COVID legislation, all Trump did was the tax cut. Trump still hasn't held his infrastructure week or unveiled his beautiful healthcare plan, both of which were 2 weeks away ... checks notes ... 6 years ago. Look at how the GOP congress has acquitted itself this year - they've been a complete disaster.

Mike Johnson is what, the 3rd speaker? He's likely to lose his job because he reluctantly agreed to try to pass a bill that could actually help America. The reason that congress won't act on immigration is because the GOP doesn't want to help Biden. You think that will help Trump win Arizona?

To answer your question, no, I don't think many GOP voters will cross the line and vote blue but I think we'll see lower turnout amongst conservatives and higher turnout amongst progressives, particularly in states where abortion is on the ballot. As we've seen for the last few years, that has led to massive overperformance by democrats. Biden will win every state where abortion is on the ballot. Even the GOP is getting tired of Trump and isn't that motivated to show up. The Iowa caucus saw far lower turnout this cycle than in 2016. Trump's rallies are smaller and people leave earlier and earlier. I don't know where you are seeing so much strength for Trump where by most metrics he's far weaker than he was in 2020 when he lost the election by 7 million votes.

Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

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Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

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Did you seriously think Trump wasn't going to win the nomination? The vast majority of Republicans believe he is the incumbent. He has been bragging about being up 50 or 80 points on these other clowns. It's been obvious since day one that he wasn't going to lose to these people.

Whet you say about Trump in 2020 before the pandemic is absolutely true for Biden now. People value stability and Biden provides it. The economy is doing well. For the first time in decades, we aren't at war. Biden has stopped the indiscriminate drone strikes of his predecessors. Most of Trump's knocks on Biden are completely fabricated because he has nothing to hang his hat on.

To answer your question, no, I don't think many GOP voters will cross the line and vote blue but I think we'll see lower turnout amongst conservatives and higher turnout amongst progressives, particularly in states where abortion is on the ballot. As we've seen for the last few years, that has led to massive overperformance by democrats. Biden will win every state where abortion is on the ballot. Even the GOP is getting tired of Trump and isn't that motivated to show up. The Iowa caucus saw far lower turnout this cycle than in 2016. Trump's rallies are smaller and people leave earlier and earlier. I don't know where you are seeing so much strength for Trump where by most metrics he's far weaker than he was in 2020 when he lost the election by 7 million votes.

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Trump has been the favorite, but I was "seriously" hoping Haley could pull it out. Now, I think it's done.

Forget about how you think the economy is doing (I don't think it's doing great, but I don't think it's doing poorly - but we had this discussion already). What do the voters in the battleground states think? When asked the question, does it seem like they believe the economy is doing well? Do they believe that foreign affairs are more stable, when they are seeing conflict in Ukraine, Middle East, China/Taiwan, North Korea? How do they feel about immigration? And it's not the views of people in Alabama, Oklahoma, California, or New York that will matter. It will be the views in the seven states, especially those states that Hillary lost that Biden carried. Your views or even data don't really matter. There is just so much cynicism to charts, statistics, etc. because they are always counter graph that they will go with their gut feeling.

Looking at this early polling in the battleground states that Biden won, Arizona and Georgia seem to be leaning meaningfully toward Trump, Wisconsin and Nevada seem to slightly toward Trump or even, Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be slightly toward Biden or even, and Michigan swings widely from heavily toward Trump or slight toward Biden depending on the poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

You and I are both aware that the presidents are elected by state electors and not by the overall popular votes. He can win by 3 million in CA, and it will be the same as if he won by one vote. The only states that matter are the battleground states. So, saying he won by 7 million votes is just white noise.

I am also surprised that you think progressives will be more excited about Biden than conservatives will be about Trump. Grass is always greener on the other side, and there is always less excitement about an incumbent. I also don't think Trump will lose in states where abortion is on the ballot. I would assume Trump will continue to straddle both sides of this and say states should not take a hardline position on abortion.

Again, all speculation. If Trump loses, I think you and I would both be relieved, with you happy and me resigned that we ended up with a bad result but still the better result.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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sycasey said:

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The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

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Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

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Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

---

Did you seriously think Trump wasn't going to win the nomination? The vast majority of Republicans believe he is the incumbent. He has been bragging about being up 50 or 80 points on these other clowns. It's been obvious since day one that he wasn't going to lose to these people.

Whet you say about Trump in 2020 before the pandemic is absolutely true for Biden now. People value stability and Biden provides it. The economy is doing well. For the first time in decades, we aren't at war. Biden has stopped the indiscriminate drone strikes of his predecessors. Most of Trump's knocks on Biden are completely fabricated because he has nothing to hang his hat on.

To answer your question, no, I don't think many GOP voters will cross the line and vote blue but I think we'll see lower turnout amongst conservatives and higher turnout amongst progressives, particularly in states where abortion is on the ballot. As we've seen for the last few years, that has led to massive overperformance by democrats. Biden will win every state where abortion is on the ballot. Even the GOP is getting tired of Trump and isn't that motivated to show up. The Iowa caucus saw far lower turnout this cycle than in 2016. Trump's rallies are smaller and people leave earlier and earlier. I don't know where you are seeing so much strength for Trump where by most metrics he's far weaker than he was in 2020 when he lost the election by 7 million votes.

---

Trump has been the favorite, but I was "seriously" hoping Haley could pull it out. Now, I think it's done.

Forget about how you think the economy is doing (I don't think it's doing great, but I don't think it's doing poorly - but we had this discussion already). What do the voters in the battleground states think? When asked the question, does it seem like they believe the economy is doing well? Do they believe that foreign affairs are more stable, when they are seeing conflict in Ukraine, Middle East, China/Taiwan, North Korea? How do they feel about immigration? And it's not the views of people in Alabama, Oklahoma, California, or New York that will matter. It will be the views in the seven states, especially those states that Hillary lost that Biden carried. Your views or even data don't really matter. There is just so much cynicism to charts, statistics, etc. because they are always counter graph that they will go with their gut feeling.

Looking at this early polling in the battleground states that Biden won, Arizona and Georgia seem to be leaning meaningfully toward Trump, Wisconsin and Nevada seem to slightly toward Trump or even, Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be slightly toward Biden or even, and Michigan swings widely from heavily toward Trump or slight toward Biden depending on the poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

You and I are both aware that the presidents are elected by state electors and not by the overall popular votes. He can win by 3 million in CA, and it will be the same as if he won by one vote. The only states that matter are the battleground states. So, saying he won by 7 million votes is just white noise.

I am also surprised that you think progressives will be more excited about Biden than conservatives will be about Trump. Grass is always greener on the other side, and there is always less excitement about an incumbent. I also don't think Trump will lose in states where abortion is on the ballot. I would assume Trump will continue to straddle both sides of this and say states should not take a hardline position on abortion.

Again, all speculation. If Trump loses, I think you and I would both be relieved, with you happy and me resigned that we ended up with a bad result but still the better result.

---

Not sure if you have seen, but democrats have outperformed just about every special election in recent years, and they did better than expected at the midterms, despite the sentiment being far worse than than it is now.

Quote:

---

But the trend is unmistakeable: In 30 special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 11 points, according to a 538 analysis of each seat's base partisanship score.

In Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Democrats defended a one-seat majority in the state House for the fifth time this year, outperforming Biden's 2020 margin in an Allegheny County seat by eight points.

In New Hampshire, a Democrat won by 12 points in a district Trump narrowly carried in 2020, putting the party within one seat of ending the GOP's state government trifecta. The Republican who lost, Jim Guzofski, is an election denier who claimed "prophets" told him Trump won in 2020.

---

Ohio is pretty much a deep red state but 57% voted in favor their recent constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access. America overwhelmingly opposes draconian restrictions on women's health care rights and it remains a catalyst for voters, the way that forcing birth was a mainstay of GOP politics for the last 50 years.

Abortion ballot initiatives alone may carry Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania for Biden. If Trump loses those 3 states, he's toast.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

sycasey said:

---

The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

---

Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

---

Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

---

Did you seriously think Trump wasn't going to win the nomination? The vast majority of Republicans believe he is the incumbent. He has been bragging about being up 50 or 80 points on these other clowns. It's been obvious since day one that he wasn't going to lose to these people.

Whet you say about Trump in 2020 before the pandemic is absolutely true for Biden now. People value stability and Biden provides it. The economy is doing well. For the first time in decades, we aren't at war. Biden has stopped the indiscriminate drone strikes of his predecessors. Most of Trump's knocks on Biden are completely fabricated because he has nothing to hang his hat on.

To answer your question, no, I don't think many GOP voters will cross the line and vote blue but I think we'll see lower turnout amongst conservatives and higher turnout amongst progressives, particularly in states where abortion is on the ballot. As we've seen for the last few years, that has led to massive overperformance by democrats. Biden will win every state where abortion is on the ballot. Even the GOP is getting tired of Trump and isn't that motivated to show up. The Iowa caucus saw far lower turnout this cycle than in 2016. Trump's rallies are smaller and people leave earlier and earlier. I don't know where you are seeing so much strength for Trump where by most metrics he's far weaker than he was in 2020 when he lost the election by 7 million votes.

---

Trump has been the favorite, but I was "seriously" hoping Haley could pull it out. Now, I think it's done.

Forget about how you think the economy is doing (I don't think it's doing great, but I don't think it's doing poorly - but we had this discussion already). What do the voters in the battleground states think? When asked the question, does it seem like they believe the economy is doing well? Do they believe that foreign affairs are more stable, when they are seeing conflict in Ukraine, Middle East, China/Taiwan, North Korea? How do they feel about immigration? And it's not the views of people in Alabama, Oklahoma, California, or New York that will matter. It will be the views in the seven states, especially those states that Hillary lost that Biden carried. Your views or even data don't really matter. There is just so much cynicism to charts, statistics, etc. because they are always counter graph that they will go with their gut feeling.

Looking at this early polling in the battleground states that Biden won, Arizona and Georgia seem to be leaning meaningfully toward Trump, Wisconsin and Nevada seem to slightly toward Trump or even, Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be slightly toward Biden or even, and Michigan swings widely from heavily toward Trump or slight toward Biden depending on the poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

You and I are both aware that the presidents are elected by state electors and not by the overall popular votes. He can win by 3 million in CA, and it will be the same as if he won by one vote. The only states that matter are the battleground states. So, saying he won by 7 million votes is just white noise.

I am also surprised that you think progressives will be more excited about Biden than conservatives will be about Trump. Grass is always greener on the other side, and there is always less excitement about an incumbent. I also don't think Trump will lose in states where abortion is on the ballot. I would assume Trump will continue to straddle both sides of this and say states should not take a hardline position on abortion.

Again, all speculation. If Trump loses, I think you and I would both be relieved, with you happy and me resigned that we ended up with a bad result but still the better result.

---

Not sure if you have seen, but democrats have outperformed just about every special election in recent years, and they did better than expected at the midterms, despite the sentiment being far worse than than it is now.

Quote:

---

But the trend is unmistakeable: In 30 special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 11 points, according to a 538 analysis of each seat's base partisanship score.

In Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Democrats defended a one-seat majority in the state House for the fifth time this year, outperforming Biden's 2020 margin in an Allegheny County seat by eight points.

In New Hampshire, a Democrat won by 12 points in a district Trump narrowly carried in 2020, putting the party within one seat of ending the GOP's state government trifecta. The Republican who lost, Jim Guzofski, is an election denier who claimed "prophets" told him Trump won in 2020.

---

Ohio is pretty much a deep red state but 57% voted in favor their recent constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access. America overwhelmingly opposes draconian restrictions on women's health care rights and it remains a catalyst for voters, the way that forcing birth was a mainstay of GOP politics for the last 50 years.

Abortion ballot initiatives alone may carry Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania for Biden. If Trump loses those 3 states, he's toast.

---

Agreed that if he loses Arizona and Nevada, chances are not good for his reelection. However, midterm elections are not necessarily reflection of Trump's chances. Trump wannabes don't carry the same loyalty that Trump does. A big mystery to me as to why.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Vivek: racism does not exist

The Babylon Bee: pic.twitter.com/A6M5ACmb5V

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) January 16, 2024

---

Wow, that's bad. But let's be honest. This seems to be mocking Trump's lack of racial sensitivity more than blatant racism against Vivek.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

sycasey said:

---

The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

---

Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

---

Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

---

Did you seriously think Trump wasn't going to win the nomination? The vast majority of Republicans believe he is the incumbent. He has been bragging about being up 50 or 80 points on these other clowns. It's been obvious since day one that he wasn't going to lose to these people.

Whet you say about Trump in 2020 before the pandemic is absolutely true for Biden now. People value stability and Biden provides it. The economy is doing well. For the first time in decades, we aren't at war. Biden has stopped the indiscriminate drone strikes of his predecessors. Most of Trump's knocks on Biden are completely fabricated because he has nothing to hang his hat on.

To answer your question, no, I don't think many GOP voters will cross the line and vote blue but I think we'll see lower turnout amongst conservatives and higher turnout amongst progressives, particularly in states where abortion is on the ballot. As we've seen for the last few years, that has led to massive overperformance by democrats. Biden will win every state where abortion is on the ballot. Even the GOP is getting tired of Trump and isn't that motivated to show up. The Iowa caucus saw far lower turnout this cycle than in 2016. Trump's rallies are smaller and people leave earlier and earlier. I don't know where you are seeing so much strength for Trump where by most metrics he's far weaker than he was in 2020 when he lost the election by 7 million votes.

---

Trump has been the favorite, but I was "seriously" hoping Haley could pull it out. Now, I think it's done.

Forget about how you think the economy is doing (I don't think it's doing great, but I don't think it's doing poorly - but we had this discussion already). What do the voters in the battleground states think? When asked the question, does it seem like they believe the economy is doing well? Do they believe that foreign affairs are more stable, when they are seeing conflict in Ukraine, Middle East, China/Taiwan, North Korea? How do they feel about immigration? And it's not the views of people in Alabama, Oklahoma, California, or New York that will matter. It will be the views in the seven states, especially those states that Hillary lost that Biden carried. Your views or even data don't really matter. There is just so much cynicism to charts, statistics, etc. because they are always counter graph that they will go with their gut feeling.

Looking at this early polling in the battleground states that Biden won, Arizona and Georgia seem to be leaning meaningfully toward Trump, Wisconsin and Nevada seem to slightly toward Trump or even, Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be slightly toward Biden or even, and Michigan swings widely from heavily toward Trump or slight toward Biden depending on the poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

You and I are both aware that the presidents are elected by state electors and not by the overall popular votes. He can win by 3 million in CA, and it will be the same as if he won by one vote. The only states that matter are the battleground states. So, saying he won by 7 million votes is just white noise.

I am also surprised that you think progressives will be more excited about Biden than conservatives will be about Trump. Grass is always greener on the other side, and there is always less excitement about an incumbent. I also don't think Trump will lose in states where abortion is on the ballot. I would assume Trump will continue to straddle both sides of this and say states should not take a hardline position on abortion.

Again, all speculation. If Trump loses, I think you and I would both be relieved, with you happy and me resigned that we ended up with a bad result but still the better result.

---

Not sure if you have seen, but democrats have outperformed just about every special election in recent years, and they did better than expected at the midterms, despite the sentiment being far worse than than it is now.

Quote:

---

But the trend is unmistakeable: In 30 special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 11 points, according to a 538 analysis of each seat's base partisanship score.

In Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Democrats defended a one-seat majority in the state House for the fifth time this year, outperforming Biden's 2020 margin in an Allegheny County seat by eight points.

In New Hampshire, a Democrat won by 12 points in a district Trump narrowly carried in 2020, putting the party within one seat of ending the GOP's state government trifecta. The Republican who lost, Jim Guzofski, is an election denier who claimed "prophets" told him Trump won in 2020.

---

Ohio is pretty much a deep red state but 57% voted in favor their recent constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access. America overwhelmingly opposes draconian restrictions on women's health care rights and it remains a catalyst for voters, the way that forcing birth was a mainstay of GOP politics for the last 50 years.

Abortion ballot initiatives alone may carry Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania for Biden. If Trump loses those 3 states, he's toast.

---

Agreed that if he loses Arizona and Nevada, chances are not good for his reelection. However, midterm elections are not necessarily reflection of Trump's chances. Trump wannabes don't carry the same loyalty that Trump does. A big mystery to me as to why.

---

Trump underperformed in 2020, what is that a reflection of?

I know you are concerned Trump will win again and I understand the reason to be cautious, but absent some deus ex machina, which isn't currently apparent, he's going to lose the election.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Vivek: racism does not exist

The Babylon Bee: pic.twitter.com/A6M5ACmb5V

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) January 16, 2024

---

Wow, that's bad. But let's be honest. This seems to be mocking Trump's lack of racial sensitivity more than blatant racism against Vivek.

---

Are you saying that because the satire (which supports Trump) is aping Trump's racism, that somehow makes it better? There has been quite a bit of racism targeted toward Vivek by the base of rubes he was hoping to win over.

Like the Iowa voter below. Does claiming not to be racist make it okay to say something racist?

I too will never forget when 19 guys named “Vivek” did 9/11 https://t.co/xHTGosIHx9

— Scott Shapiro (@scottjshapiro) January 15, 2024

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

sycasey said:

---

The numbers are interesting, but I'm going to say that calling this a "contested" primary in the same way as your other historical examples isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. None of those had somebody who had already been President (besides the "unopposed" examples of course). Trump is effectively an incumbent without literally being an incumbent.

---

Exactly. To put this in perspective, and to help people understand why Trump is probably melting down behind closed doors right now, 66% of Iowa caucus voters yesterday believe Trump won the 2020 election and he still only got 51% of the vote. It was basically a MAGA rally and he still only managed to get 70% of those brain dead zombies who believed his election lies to stick with him.

Trump only got 11% of the vote amongst the people who weren't election deniers, which put him well behind Haley and Desantis. This is a horrible outcome for Trump.

---

Do you believe anyone other than Trump will be the Republican nominee after the Iowa caucus? For me, I think it's over on the primary.

With that said, the weakness you see in the Iowa Caucus for Trump - how would that help Biden in the general election? Any chance that those voting for DeSantis or Haley will vote for Biden over Trump? I would say that would be a small percentage.

I think Biden had more advantages in 2020 than he will in 2024. The COVID pandemic cratered what should have been an easy reelection for Trump. He was a disaster with the pandemic. And Biden was viewed as a unifier, a moderate, and someone who can get congress to move despite the crazies because of his history in Congress. I think he has more headwinds now, with fewer Republicans who crossed over to vote for Biden continuing to think in 2024 that he is a unifier or a moderate, middle class folks in Rust Belt feeling residual anger over inflation whose bad taste will not dissipate in their mouth anytime soon, loss of some union workers' support, more minorities (especially Hispanics) crossing over to Trump, the immigration issues that will be an anchor for Biden's chances in Arizona, and the issues with the senate election crossing over to the presidential election in Georgia no longer present in 2024.

We are all just guessing at this point, but I think people's exasperation with Trump over COVID has dissipated somewhat, even if he is trying to make up for it with his Hitler emulation and obsession with 2020 election. Strangely, all the legal actions against him may make him seem more like a martyr with some independents rallying to him. Strange how that works.

I think Biden is in danger, but you may be right and it may be fairly easy sailings for him. I don't pretend to be an expert on predicting elections. But I can tell you that I was a lot more hopeful about Biden in 2020 than I am now, even contributing to his campaign. Just one example, nowhere representing the broader voter trends in actual battleground states.

---

Did you seriously think Trump wasn't going to win the nomination? The vast majority of Republicans believe he is the incumbent. He has been bragging about being up 50 or 80 points on these other clowns. It's been obvious since day one that he wasn't going to lose to these people.

Whet you say about Trump in 2020 before the pandemic is absolutely true for Biden now. People value stability and Biden provides it. The economy is doing well. For the first time in decades, we aren't at war. Biden has stopped the indiscriminate drone strikes of his predecessors. Most of Trump's knocks on Biden are completely fabricated because he has nothing to hang his hat on.

To answer your question, no, I don't think many GOP voters will cross the line and vote blue but I think we'll see lower turnout amongst conservatives and higher turnout amongst progressives, particularly in states where abortion is on the ballot. As we've seen for the last few years, that has led to massive overperformance by democrats. Biden will win every state where abortion is on the ballot. Even the GOP is getting tired of Trump and isn't that motivated to show up. The Iowa caucus saw far lower turnout this cycle than in 2016. Trump's rallies are smaller and people leave earlier and earlier. I don't know where you are seeing so much strength for Trump where by most metrics he's far weaker than he was in 2020 when he lost the election by 7 million votes.

---

Trump has been the favorite, but I was "seriously" hoping Haley could pull it out. Now, I think it's done.

Forget about how you think the economy is doing (I don't think it's doing great, but I don't think it's doing poorly - but we had this discussion already). What do the voters in the battleground states think? When asked the question, does it seem like they believe the economy is doing well? Do they believe that foreign affairs are more stable, when they are seeing conflict in Ukraine, Middle East, China/Taiwan, North Korea? How do they feel about immigration? And it's not the views of people in Alabama, Oklahoma, California, or New York that will matter. It will be the views in the seven states, especially those states that Hillary lost that Biden carried. Your views or even data don't really matter. There is just so much cynicism to charts, statistics, etc. because they are always counter graph that they will go with their gut feeling.

Looking at this early polling in the battleground states that Biden won, Arizona and Georgia seem to be leaning meaningfully toward Trump, Wisconsin and Nevada seem to slightly toward Trump or even, Pennsylvania and Michigan seem to be slightly toward Biden or even, and Michigan swings widely from heavily toward Trump or slight toward Biden depending on the poll.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/

You and I are both aware that the presidents are elected by state electors and not by the overall popular votes. He can win by 3 million in CA, and it will be the same as if he won by one vote. The only states that matter are the battleground states. So, saying he won by 7 million votes is just white noise.

I am also surprised that you think progressives will be more excited about Biden than conservatives will be about Trump. Grass is always greener on the other side, and there is always less excitement about an incumbent. I also don't think Trump will lose in states where abortion is on the ballot. I would assume Trump will continue to straddle both sides of this and say states should not take a hardline position on abortion.

Again, all speculation. If Trump loses, I think you and I would both be relieved, with you happy and me resigned that we ended up with a bad result but still the better result.

---

Not sure if you have seen, but democrats have outperformed just about every special election in recent years, and they did better than expected at the midterms, despite the sentiment being far worse than than it is now.

Quote:

---

But the trend is unmistakeable: In 30 special elections this year, Democrats have outperformed by an average of 11 points, according to a 538 analysis of each seat's base partisanship score.

In Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Democrats defended a one-seat majority in the state House for the fifth time this year, outperforming Biden's 2020 margin in an Allegheny County seat by eight points.

In New Hampshire, a Democrat won by 12 points in a district Trump narrowly carried in 2020, putting the party within one seat of ending the GOP's state government trifecta. The Republican who lost, Jim Guzofski, is an election denier who claimed "prophets" told him Trump won in 2020.

---

Ohio is pretty much a deep red state but 57% voted in favor their recent constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion access. America overwhelmingly opposes draconian restrictions on women's health care rights and it remains a catalyst for voters, the way that forcing birth was a mainstay of GOP politics for the last 50 years.

Abortion ballot initiatives alone may carry Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania for Biden. If Trump loses those 3 states, he's toast.

---

Agreed that if he loses Arizona and Nevada, chances are not good for his reelection. However, midterm elections are not necessarily reflection of Trump's chances. Trump wannabes don't carry the same loyalty that Trump does. A big mystery to me as to why.

---

Trump underperformed in 2020, what is that a reflection of?

I know you are concerned Trump will win again and I understand the reason to be cautious, but absent some deus ex machina, which isn't currently apparent, he's going to lose the election.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Vivek: racism does not exist

The Babylon Bee: pic.twitter.com/A6M5ACmb5V

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) January 16, 2024

---

Wow, that's bad. But let's be honest. This seems to be mocking Trump's lack of racial sensitivity more than blatant racism against Vivek.

---

Are you saying that because the satire (which supports Trump) is aping Trump's racism, that somehow makes it better? There has been quite a bit of racism targeted toward Vivek by the base of rubes he was hoping to win over.

Like the Iowa voter below. Does claiming not to be racist make it okay to say something racist?

I too will never forget when 19 guys named “Vivek” did 9/11 https://t.co/xHTGosIHx9

— Scott Shapiro (@scottjshapiro) January 15, 2024

---

Have you actually read the satirical article? If you did, wouldn't you agree it's mocking Trump as well as the sycophant?

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Trump underperformed in 2020, what is that a reflection of?

I know you are concerned Trump will win again and I understand the reason to be cautious, but absent some deus ex machina, which isn't currently apparent, he's going to lose the election.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Vivek: racism does not exist

The Babylon Bee: pic.twitter.com/A6M5ACmb5V

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) January 16, 2024

---

Wow, that's bad. But let's be honest. This seems to be mocking Trump's lack of racial sensitivity more than blatant racism against Vivek.

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Are you saying that because the satire (which supports Trump) is aping Trump's racism, that somehow makes it better? There has been quite a bit of racism targeted toward Vivek by the base of rubes he was hoping to win over.

Like the Iowa voter below. Does claiming not to be racist make it okay to say something racist?

I too will never forget when 19 guys named “Vivek” did 9/11 https://t.co/xHTGosIHx9

— Scott Shapiro (@scottjshapiro) January 15, 2024

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Have you actually read the satirical article? If you did, wouldn't you agree it's mocking Trump as well as the sycophant?

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I don't quite understand what hair you are trying to split but it appears that the racist guy and Trump fan who runs that satire site doubled down on the racism.

Too far, guys thank you come again

— Kyle Mann (@The_Kyle_Mann) January 16, 2024

Quote:

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Haley has a great chance of winning the whole enchilada. Biden came in 4th in Iowa in 2020 and ended up receiving a record 81 million votes.

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thinking about how a huge, well-resourced news outlet like the NY Times could spend money on journalism that holds candidates accountable on real issues like airplane safety etc...

...and then remembering the NYT decided to instead spend money creating a needle for second place pic.twitter.com/DclT7lN3BU

— David Sirota (@davidsirota) January 16, 2024

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Trump underperformed in 2020, what is that a reflection of?

I know you are concerned Trump will win again and I understand the reason to be cautious, but absent some deus ex machina, which isn't currently apparent, he's going to lose the election.

calbear93 said:

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Unit2Sucks said:

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Vivek: racism does not exist

The Babylon Bee: pic.twitter.com/A6M5ACmb5V

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) January 16, 2024

---

Wow, that's bad. But let's be honest. This seems to be mocking Trump's lack of racial sensitivity more than blatant racism against Vivek.

---

Are you saying that because the satire (which supports Trump) is aping Trump's racism, that somehow makes it better? There has been quite a bit of racism targeted toward Vivek by the base of rubes he was hoping to win over.

Like the Iowa voter below. Does claiming not to be racist make it okay to say something racist?

I too will never forget when 19 guys named “Vivek” did 9/11 https://t.co/xHTGosIHx9

— Scott Shapiro (@scottjshapiro) January 15, 2024

---

Have you actually read the satirical article? If you did, wouldn't you agree it's mocking Trump as well as the sycophant?

---

I don't quite understand what hair you are trying to split but it appears that the racist guy and Trump fan who runs that satire site doubled down on the racism.

Too far, guys thank you come again

— Kyle Mann (@The_Kyle_Mann) January 16, 2024

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Why don't you read the article and not just the tweet. If you still think this is not mocking Trump and the brown nosing by Vivke, then we just disagree. But it seems like you have not read the article.

https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-promises-vivek-an-administration-position-running-white-house-convenience-store

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Maybe we should take it from the top. Vivek has more or less claimed that America does not need to address systemic racism (for ex, "Was there a time and place for correcting for those past injustices? Yeah, it was like in 1870").

This MAGA satire entity, which supports Donald Trump, said what it said. You seem to be claiming that the racist claim should be attributed to Trump rather than the author/publisher.

I guess I'm just not sure what your point is. Vivek has been the target of racist remarks from GOP/MAGAts. I don't know why you think it's important to parse those as it doesn't serve as any sort of rebuttal to anything. I don't think you are claiming that racism doesn't exist, or that this satire wasn't a racist trope, so you're just arguing about attribution whereas I posted the original tweet to juxtapose Vivek's position on racism with the racist remarks targeting him.

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Trump underperformed in 2020, what is that a reflection of?

I know you are concerned Trump will win again and I understand the reason to be cautious, but absent some deus ex machina, which isn't currently apparent, he's going to lose the election.

calbear93 said:

---

Unit2Sucks said:

---

Vivek: racism does not exist

The Babylon Bee: pic.twitter.com/A6M5ACmb5V

— Matt Binder (@MattBinder) January 16, 2024

---

Wow, that's bad. But let's be honest. This seems to be mocking Trump's lack of racial sensitivity more than blatant racism against Vivek.

---

Are you saying that because the satire (which supports Trump) is aping Trump's racism, that somehow makes it better? There has been quite a bit of racism targeted toward Vivek by the base of rubes he was hoping to win over.

Like the Iowa voter below. Does claiming not to be racist make it okay to say something racist?

I too will never forget when 19 guys named “Vivek” did 9/11 https://t.co/xHTGosIHx9

— Scott Shapiro (@scottjshapiro) January 15, 2024

---

Have you actually read the satirical article? If you did, wouldn't you agree it's mocking Trump as well as the sycophant?

---

I don't quite understand what hair you are trying to split but it appears that the racist guy and Trump fan who runs that satire site doubled down on the racism.

Too far, guys thank you come again

— Kyle Mann (@The_Kyle_Mann) January 16, 2024

---

Why don't you read the article and not just the tweet. If you still think this is not mocking Trump and the brown nosing by Vivke, then we just disagree. But it seems like you have not read the article.

https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-promises-vivek-an-administration-position-running-white-house-convenience-store

---

Maybe we should take it from the top. Vivek has more or less claimed that America does not need to address systemic racism (for ex, "Was there a time and place for correcting for those past injustices? Yeah, it was like in 1870").

This MAGA satire entity, which supports Donald Trump, said what it said. You seem to be claiming that the racist claim should be attributed to Trump rather than the author/publisher.

I guess I'm just not sure what your point is. Vivek has been the target of racist remarks from GOP/MAGAts. I don't know why you think it's important to parse those as it doesn't serve as any sort of rebuttal to anything. I don't think you are claiming that racism doesn't exist, or that this satire wasn't a racist trope, so you're just arguing about attribution whereas I posted the original tweet to juxtapose Vivek's position on racism with the racist remarks targeting him.

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I think you are over thinking this and in a mood to argue where argument doesn't exist.

I said three things and you took off on a rant.

I said it was bad from a racial stereotyping perspective

I also said it read like a mockery of Trump for saying stupid things and being racially insensitive.

I also said it made fun of Vivek for being a sycophant.

Why are you looking for an argument?


Does this read like flattery for either Trump or Vivek?


" Trump went on to say that he'll work closely with Ramaswamy every day when he takes office, stopping by the official 7-Eleven store located in the halls of the West Wing several times a day for a Diet Coke and "one of those delicious warmed-up cheeseburgers under the hot light thingies."

Ramaswamy quickly began training for the position, watching official 7-Eleven franchisee training videos on how to fix the Slurpee machine and offer fast service ringing up Big Gulps.

"Technically, I'm really very overqualified for this," Ramaswamy told reporters. "And I'm a little suspicious as to why Trump chose me for this position over some of the other candidates. But I'll take what I can get at this point."

When questioned, Trump was horrified at the accusations that any kind of racial stereotyping played into his selection of Ramaswamy. "I wanted to offer the job to DeSantis, frankly, but he's too short to see over the little hot dog display.""

Vivek is sharp, he'll be offered a position in the Trump Administration if the next stolen election fails.

Vivek, the enthusiastic Republican, gets hoisted by his own petard.

Reminds me of what "progressives" who back the Palestinian people to the point of justifying Hamas will think, after they find out what they have climbed into bed with.

AunBear89 said:

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I'm just laughing at self-proclaimed smart guy calling anything on Babylon Bee an "article."

The clown show never stops with these morons.

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BBDS

Fyi.... https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/article