Cal89 said:

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bear2034 said:

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A lot has happened since your last post, namely Trump announcing a bitcoin strategic reserve for the country, the election win, the impending removal of Gary Gensler with a pro-crypto treasury secretary, and the start of options trading for bitcoin ETF products. We also have Michael Saylor's Microstrategies issuing debt and buying up massive amounts of bitcoin and front running the U.S. and other companies to the point where the company stock is outperforming bitcoin itself. What a crazy month!

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Just seeing your response now. It has been a while...

Yup, a lot has transpired. Trump going pro Bitcoin and crypto, while the current administration was stupidly antagonistic toward digital assets, was huge. An estimated 50m Americans hold crypto. Many friends and ex-colleagues, most who are left-leaning, said they would likely vote for Trump. In 2016 and 2020, I don't recall any Trump yard signs down here in Morgan Hill. There were more than a few this year. The craziest thing for me though was on the Cal campus, someone wrote in chalk "God Bless Trump" or something like that... And, I visited the campus a week later, and it was still there! So many other indicators too, including the polls, that Trump had serious traction. I digress...

While I self-custody BTC and select cryptos for the long-term, I play the ETFs and Microstrategy too, mostly in retirement accounts (traditional and Roth). MSTR might as well stand for Monster! Silly profits that just makes me giddy looking at the balances. I have not sold MSTR yet, and I'm not sure I will for a while. Saylor is brilliant. I'll be layering-out of Fidelity's FBTC before I sell MSTR. Because of the "55 Rule" I can take 401K distributions without penalty, if desired. In taxable accounts, if there is indeed no capital gains on US-issued cryptos, buckle-up!

BTC is on the brink of $100K at this moment, with Google and Amazon in the sights...

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

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What's interesting is that many OG bitcoin maximalists who are very familiar with Michael Saylor don't fully understand what's he's doing with MSTR. The discussions are all unfolding right now on Twitter. I have BTC in cold storage and had the ETF in my retirement account but exchanged the ETF for MSTR a week after the election. I wished I started with MSTR from the beginning! It was a blessing in disguise for those people who couldn't buy the bitcoin ETF from their brokerage firms and bought MSTR instead for bitcoin exposure. The challenge now is figuring out when to sell some of the overexposed MSTR allocation but the way things are going, I may never sell.

I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

bearister said:

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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

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Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.

CheezIt Bear said:

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edwinbear said:

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bearister said:

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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

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Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.

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https://consumer.ftc.gov/articles/what-know-about-cryptocurrency-and-scams

Quote:

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Confused about cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin or Ether (associated with Ethereum)? You're not alone. Before you use or invest in cryptocurrency, know what makes it different from cash and other payment methods, and how to spot cryptocurrency scams or detect cryptocurrency accounts that may be compromised.

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Lol, the government has known nothing about bitcoin for the last 15 years and is only now just catching up, hence the push for a national bitcoin strategic reserve. My point still stands.

bearister said:

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The first Rule of Bitcoin is that no one really understands Bitcoin.

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This is so true. You can't understand bitcoin until you are humble enough to admit that you have no clue what bitcoin is. Bitcoin is on the cusp of $100K each and there are still people who say things like "bitcoin has no intrinsic value" or "bitcoin is going to zero." As long as they keep thinking they already know what bitcoin is, they will keep right on thinking this until bitcoin is 8 figures+ and their portfolio indirectly holds bitcoin anyways.

edwinbear said:

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bearister said:

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The first Rule of Bitcoin is that no one really understands Bitcoin.

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This is so true. You can't understand bitcoin until you are humble enough to admit that you have no clue what bitcoin is. Bitcoin is on the cusp of $100K each and there are still people who say things like "bitcoin has no intrinsic value" or "bitcoin is going to zero." As long as they keep thinking they already know what bitcoin is, they will keep right on thinking this until bitcoin is 8 figures+ and their portfolio indirectly holds bitcoin anyways.

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The risk of Bitcoin collapsing is very small but nonzero, it is subject to black swan-type events.

One aspect of bitcoin that governments like is that it will pave the way to CBDCs, which provide them with far greater control over the monetary system and individual investors.

Texted to wife:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/no-money-thousands-americans-see-223556135.html

Since you went to fintech conference, things one should know.


… I have been waiting for the day when the US Govt bans non-sovereign currencies (cyber currencies) and everyone loses their asses, a la FTX and the vanished value of FTT coin.

However, now that trump and musk are in charge, I wouldn't be surprised if they legally sanction cyber-coins and bring about the total demise of the US dollar.

I haven't read anything about that, but stranger things have happened. Trump is just the kind of guy to do it.

But with traditional politicians, the day crypto threatens the US Dollar is the day it gets banned under some new legal interpretation or bill passed by Congress defining legal tender, and valuations plummet to zero.

You heard it here first! One way or another, both cannot survive, co-exist as equals. One will ultimately destroy the other.

Only lemmings would own MicroStrategy given that a Bitcoin owned by MSTR is worth almost 4x as much as bitcoin owned by a mere mortal.

All they do is sell more common stock at irtationally high prices to then use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. How sustainable is that?

But such are manias.

The USD just hit a 2 year high this week.

Its like Microsoft Excel.

Widely used, not because people love it, but because others use it, as well.

The BRICS currency touted by Putin to displace the Greenbaxk has gone NOWHERE.

MSTR sells $5 billion of convertible notes this week with 0% interest (zilch, nil, nadda) which are convertible into its stock at $672 a share, some 55% above where the stock traded when the bond deal was priced.

Gee, where can I sign up for such a sweet deal?

edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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MSTR sells $5 billion of convertible notes this week with 0% interest (zilch, nil, nadda) which are convertible into its stock at $672 a share, some 55% above where the stock traded when the bond deal was priced.

Gee, where can I sign up for such a sweet deal?

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Someone is buying their notes. Instead of being dismissive I'd encourage you to look into WHY someone might be doing so instead of being a sarcastic know-it-all. Again, unless you think they're just idiots.

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This video was published today on this topic, and it provides some reasoning and rationale...



Keeping an open mind has served me well over the years.

…..but one thing is a dead solid lock: The Elon Musk and Joe Rogan Bros aren't smart enough to understand Bitcoin one way or the other.

edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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MSTR sells $5 billion of convertible notes this week with 0% interest (zilch, nil, nadda) which are convertible into its stock at $672 a share, some 55% above where the stock traded when the bond deal was priced.

Gee, where can I sign up for such a sweet deal?

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Someone is buying their notes. Instead of being dismissive I'd encourage you to look into WHY someone might be doing so instead of being a sarcastic know-it-all. Again, unless you think they're just idiots.

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edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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MSTR sells $5 billion of convertible notes this week with 0% interest (zilch, nil, nadda) which are convertible into its stock at $672 a share, some 55% above where the stock traded when the bond deal was priced.

Gee, where can I sign up for such a sweet deal?

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Someone is buying their notes. Instead of being dismissive I'd encourage you to look into WHY someone might be doing so instead of being a sarcastic know-it-all. Again, unless you think they're just idiots.

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You clearly haven't figured out that MSTR is trading at 4X the price of one Bitcoin that us mere mortals could buy.
Try doing the math.

Duh.

DiabloWags said:

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edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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MSTR sells $5 billion of convertible notes this week with 0% interest (zilch, nil, nadda) which are convertible into its stock at $672 a share, some 55% above where the stock traded when the bond deal was priced.

Gee, where can I sign up for such a sweet deal?

---

Someone is buying their notes. Instead of being dismissive I'd encourage you to look into WHY someone might be doing so instead of being a sarcastic know-it-all. Again, unless you think they're just idiots.

---

You clearly haven't figured out that MSTR is trading at 4X the price of one Bitcoin that us mere mortals could buy.
Try doing the math.

Duh.

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Year to date, $MSTR's treasury operations delivered a BTC Yield of 59.3%, providing a net benefit of ~112,125 BTC to our shareholders, or ~341 BTC per day. At $100K per BTC, that would equate to $11.2 billion for the year so far, or $34.1 million per day.

— Michael Saylor⚡️ (@saylor) November 25, 2024

DiabloWags said:

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edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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MSTR sells $5 billion of

MSTR is the most profitable company in the world with a forward P/E of less than 1.

Here are the numbers.

$500 million of profit a day per Saylor
X 20 trading days a month equals $10 billion a month.

$10 billion a month X 12 months. $120 billion year in forward earnings for…

— Matthew Recore (@mattreco2) November 22, 2024

notes this week with 0% interest (zilch, nil, nadda) which are convertible into its stock at $672 a share, some 55% above where the stock traded when the bond deal was priced.

Gee, where can I sign up for such a sweet deal?

---

Someone is buying their notes. Instead of being dismissive I'd encourage you to look into WHY someone might be doing so instead of being a sarcastic know-it-all. Again, unless you think they're just idiots.

---

You clearly haven't figured out that MSTR is trading at 4X the price of one Bitcoin that us mere mortals could buy.
Try doing the math.

Duh.

---

MSTR is the most profitable company in the world with a forward P/E of less than 1.

Here are the numbers.

$500 million of profit a day per Saylor
X 20 trading days a month equals $10 billion a month.

$10 billion a month X 12 months. $120 billion year in forward earnings for…

— Matthew Recore (@mattreco2) November 22, 2024

82gradDLSdad said:

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edwinbear said:

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bearister said:

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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

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Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.

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I don't think Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme (I honestly don't know) but no educated person thought Madoff was running a ponzi scheme until some competitor put his financial accountant on it to figure out how he was able to get the returns he did. It turned out to be quite simple. Smart people are no better at figuring these things out than average people. Certainly Bitcoin hasn't had a straight line rise in value like Madoff.

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If bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, who is the scammer? And before you cite "greater fool theory" as the scam at play, how is that NOT the case with just about every other commodity (gold, oil, wheat bushels, etc.)?

Madoff used his status and went to great lengths to hide what he did. If everything he did was transparent, understanding that he was a fraud would have been easy. The more apt comparison, imo, is not comparing bitcoin to Madoff, but comparing bitcoin to the dollar (which Madoff used as a financial tool). It doesn't make sense to blame the tool, the dollar, for Madoff's fraud. We blame the user of that tool, the person, Madoff, himself. None of his victims are blaming the dollars they lost.

Bitcoin is transparent. There is nothing about it that anyone can't look at. Its ledger is transparent, its code is open source. It is distributed across hundreds of thousands of computers and has hundreds of thousands of eyeballs pouring over every inch of it every day.

The reality is, bitcoin is just a thing. Let's call it a rock. It just sits there, offering its core use case. Using it is completely voluntary. It sits there and says, "I'm here, use me if you'd like, but you don't have to." Can PEOPLE use it for scams? Sure. Just like how people can use the dollar for scams as well. Bitcoin is just a tool/thing, and unless one thinks we should also blame cars because robbers can use them as getaway vehicles or houses because druggies can setup DIY meth labs inside them, comparing bitcoin to the scams perpetrated by PEOPLE is completely an apples to oranges comparison.

edwinbear said:

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82gradDLSdad said:

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edwinbear said:

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bearister said:

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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

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Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.

---

I don't think Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme (I honestly don't know) but no educated person thought Madoff was running a ponzi scheme until some competitor put his financial accountant on it to figure out how he was able to get the returns he did. It turned out to be quite simple. Smart people are no better at figuring these things out than average people. Certainly Bitcoin hasn't had a straight line rise in value like Madoff.

---

If bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, who is the scammer? And before you cite "greater fool theory" as the scam at play, how is that NOT the case with just about every other commodity (gold, oil, wheat bushels, etc.)?

Madoff used his status and went to great lengths to hide what he did. If everything he did was transparent, understanding that he was a fraud would have been easy. The more apt comparison, imo, is not comparing bitcoin to Madoff, but comparing bitcoin to the dollar (which Madoff used as a financial tool). It doesn't make sense to blame the tool, the dollar, for Madoff's fraud. We blame the user of that tool, the person, Madoff, himself. None of his victims are blaming the dollars they lost.

Bitcoin is transparent. There is nothing about it that anyone can't look at. Its ledger is transparent, its code is open source. It is distributed across hundreds of thousands of computers and has hundreds of thousands of eyeballs pouring over every inch of it every day.

The reality is, bitcoin is just a thing. Let's call it a rock. It just sits there, offering its core use case. Using it is completely voluntary. It sits there and says, "I'm here, use me if you'd like, but you don't have to." Can PEOPLE use it for scams? Sure. Just like how people can use the dollar for scams as well. Bitcoin is just a tool/thing, and unless one thinks we should also blame cars because robbers can use them as getaway vehicles or houses because druggies can setup DIY meth labs inside them, comparing bitcoin to the scams perpetrated by PEOPLE is completely an apples to oranges comparison.

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Madoff didn't go to great lengths. The floor in his office building that housed all the fake documents was quite basic and run by people with very little accounting experience. It took one guy a couple of hours to figure out there was a problem. Believe me, I'm not trying to scare anyone or debate anymore of the ponzi scheme idea. Just throwing out there that unless you are confident in at least a basic understanding of any investing opportunity you shouldn't invest in it. Ask me how I know. The idea of Bitcoin sounds promising but the more I understand about money and the world in general the less I seem to really know. I'm holding a load of Vanguard money market account shares (hell, I don't really understand that) because I'm 65 and have enough. When the market crashes, and it will, I will slowly get back in to Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF so that my kid's have a retirement. They don't really need my help but I have no real use for the money. Sorry to get off track. I know we are talking about Bitcoin. I'd love to really under it and our devaluing of our currency and how Bitcoin solves that but I can't and probably won't ever. Hell I can't figure out why we paid Knowlton and Wilcox so much...or how we ended up with two ****ty Presidential candidates. I can't really figure out anything these days.

82gradDLSdad said:

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edwinbear said:

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82gradDLSdad said:

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edwinbear said:

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bearister said:

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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

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Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.

---

I don't think Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme (I honestly don't know) but no educated person thought Madoff was running a ponzi scheme until some competitor put his financial accountant on it to figure out how he was able to get the returns he did. It turned out to be quite simple. Smart people are no better at figuring these things out than average people. Certainly Bitcoin hasn't had a straight line rise in value like Madoff.

---

If bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, who is the scammer? And before you cite "greater fool theory" as the scam at play, how is that NOT the case with just about every other commodity (gold, oil, wheat bushels, etc.)?

Madoff used his status and went to great lengths to hide what he did. If everything he did was transparent, understanding that he was a fraud would have been easy. The more apt comparison, imo, is not comparing bitcoin to Madoff, but comparing bitcoin to the dollar (which Madoff used as a financial tool). It doesn't make sense to blame the tool, the dollar, for Madoff's fraud. We blame the user of that tool, the person, Madoff, himself. None of his victims are blaming the dollars they lost.

Bitcoin is transparent. There is nothing about it that anyone can't look at. Its ledger is transparent, its code is open source. It is distributed across hundreds of thousands of computers and has hundreds of thousands of eyeballs pouring over every inch of it every day.

The reality is, bitcoin is just a thing. Let's call it a rock. It just sits there, offering its core use case. Using it is completely voluntary. It sits there and says, "I'm here, use me if you'd like, but you don't have to." Can PEOPLE use it for scams? Sure. Just like how people can use the dollar for scams as well. Bitcoin is just a tool/thing, and unless one thinks we should also blame cars because robbers can use them as getaway vehicles or houses because druggies can setup DIY meth labs inside them, comparing bitcoin to the scams perpetrated by PEOPLE is completely an apples to oranges comparison.

---

Madoff didn't go to great lengths. The floor in his office building that housed all the fake documents was quite basic and run by people with very little accounting experience. It took one guy a couple of hours to figure out there was a problem. Believe me, I'm not trying to scare anyone or debate anymore of the ponzi scheme idea. Just throwing out there that unless you are confident in at least a basic understanding of any investing opportunity you shouldn't invest in it. Ask me how I know. The idea of Bitcoin sounds promising but the more I understand about money and the world in general the less I seem to really know. I'm holding a load of Vanguard money market account shares (hell, I don't really understand that) because I'm 65 and have enough. When the market crashes, and it will, I will slowly get back in to Vanguard's S&P 500 ETF so that my kid's have a retirement. They don't really need my help but I have no real use for the money. Sorry to get off track. I know we are talking about Bitcoin. I'd love to really under it and our devaluing of our currency and how Bitcoin solves that but I can't and probably won't ever. Hell I can't figure out why we paid Knowlton and Wilcox so much...or how we ended up with two ****ty Presidential candidates. I can't really figure out anything these days.

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No worries. I'll just leave you with one final thought:

Let's assume you hate bitcoin, you think it's a scam, it sucks, etc. However, *IF* bitcoin does what lots of people think it can/will do, then the result of bitcoin's price is essentially binary. If it's not going to zero, then it's eventually going to $1/5/10/20 million each. What are the chances of that happening? That's up to you, but even if you think chances of something like that happening over the next 20 years is only 1%, wouldn't that be worth allocating 1% of your portfolio into it even if only for "just in case"? You may not think you need to because, as you said you already have "enough," but if you do then at least you're in it and will get some of those highly asymmetric gains over the next 10/20/30 years. If I'm completely wrong and bitcoin goes to zero, then, you lose 1%...you're not living out of a cardboard box.

For what it's worth, I believe a 1% allocation now would grow into a 10/20/30% allocation (assuming you never sell) over the next decade or so. Maybe enough to offset any loss of purchasing power you will DEFINITELY experience holding primarily money market funds.

This is a good argument for throwing some money at it. I'd at least like to have a 1% understanding of it and our money supply. I am also easily swayed by Buffett. 'If you are not a pro stick to an S&P 500 fund'. Thanks for your thoughtfulness on this subject.

This thread is rediculously funny.
Did these posters really go to Cal?

Yapping about **** they know nothing about like Bitcoin "yield"

Carry on.

82gradDLSdad said:

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DiabloWags said:

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This thread is rediculously funny.
Did these posters really go to Cal?

Yapping about **** they know nothing about like Bitcoin "yield"

Carry on.

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Yah, rEdiculous. Get down off your high Porsche.

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Sadly, the people on this thread aren't very bright.
Makes one wonder if they really went to Cal.

edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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This thread is rediculously funny.
Did these posters really go to Cal?

Yapping about **** they know nothing about like Bitcoin "yield"

Carry on.

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You are the kind of person who thinks intelligence is an ability to repeat authority.

By that measure you're brilliant.

Oh that must be it I just can't do math, nor can those spending billions on those notes.

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Sadly, you've done nothing more here than REPEAT that people should not be "dismissive" because "someone is buying billions of those notes"

But you clearly have no idea why.
You've never once mentioned why that is.

Here, let me help you with understanding something that you clearly don't.

MSTR is an extremely volatile stock, which has meant that the company's actively traded stock options trade with some of the HIGHEST IMPLIED VOLATILITY of any sizeable company in the stock market.

High volatility translates into high option prices, and arbitragers view convertibles as a combination of a bond and an OUT-OF-THE-MONEY CALL OPTION on the stock.

With MSTR options trading at high prices, convert arbs were willing to accept the Zero-Percent yield on the converts because they viewed the embedded call option on the stock as valuable.

The result: MSTR was able to sell $3 Billion of 5-year convertibles with a rate of zero, matching the lowest yield on new convertible debt this year, and with a 55% conversion premium, the highest premium on a regular convertible bond this year because it's viewed as a VOLATILITY PLAY.

The purchase of these notes had nothing to do with the fundamental prospects of Bitcoin.

DiabloWags said:

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edwinbear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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This thread is rediculously funny.
Did these posters really go to Cal?

Yapping about **** they know nothing about like Bitcoin "yield"

Carry on.

---

You are the kind of person who thinks intelligence is an ability to repeat authority.

By that measure you're brilliant.

Oh that must be it I just can't do math, nor can those spending billions on those notes.

---

Sadly, you've done nothing more here than REPEAT that people should not be "dismissive" because "someone is buying billions of those notes"

But you clearly have no idea why.
You've never once mentioned why that is.

Here, let me help you with understanding something that you clearly don't.

MSTR is an extremely volatile stock, which has meant that the company's actively traded stock options trade with some of the HIGHEST IMPLIED VOLATILITY of any sizeable company in the stock market.

High volatility translates into high option prices, and arbitragers view convertibles as a combination of a bond and an OUT-OF-THE-MONEY CALL OPTION on the stock.

With MSTR options trading at high prices, convert arbs were willing to accept the Zero-Percent yield on the converts because they viewed the embedded call option on the stock as valuable.

The result: MSTR was able to sell $3 Billion of 5-year convertibles with a rate of zero, matching the lowest yield on new convertible debt this year, and with a 55% conversion premium, the highest premium on a regular convertible bond this year because it's viewed as a VOLATILITY PLAY.

The purchase of these notes had nothing to do with the fundamental prospects of Bitcoin.

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You argue that the purchase of MSTR has "nothing to do with the fundamental prospects of bitcoin" and that purchase of its convertible notes is purely a volatility play. But:

1) MSTR's stock price (and its high implied volatility) is super correlated with bitcoin's price because MSTR is essentially a bitcoin treasury company. For some reason you completely ignore that critical connection.

2) So the high IV in MSTR options (and by extension the attractiveness of the embedded call options in the cnotes) is indirectly tied to bitcoin volatility. So bitcoin's prospects CANNOT be dismissed as irrelevant.

You note that the cnotes have a near zero percent interest rate. Does this not reflect the HIGH DEMAND for these bonds that are tied to bitcoin's prospects?

With a 55% conversion premium, this implies that investors were willing to pay more for the embedded call option on the stock when typically higher stock volatility REDUCES the conversion premium because it increases the probability of large stock price swings, which would make the call option more likely to end up ITM.

So - HOW do you reconcile how MSTR achieved such a high conversion premium alongside such high IV?

How do you reconcile your circular logic that the bonds were purchased as a "volatility play" which led to high demand and allowed MSTR to issue zero-percent convertibles when the SOURCE of MSTR's volatility is its bitcoin holdings? Those bitcoin holdings is CENTRAL to how attractive the bonds are and shouldn't be treated separately. You ignoring bitcoin manufactures a circular argument where volatility has become both the cause and justification for how attractive or not the bond actually is.

In the end, MSTR's ability to issue 0% cnotes with a high conviction premium actually reflects its interplay between its btc holdings, its stocks' vol, and the braorder market's desire for bitcoin exposure in a structured "Wall Street tradfi friendly" format.

You continue to fail to grasp why the notes were priced at ZERO percent given your inability to factor in the price of arbitraging this convertible with the stock options.

I repeat, this was a volatility play.

DiabloWags said:

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You continue to fail to grasp why the notes were priced at ZERO percent given your inability to factor in the price of arbitraging this convertible with the stock options.

I repeat, this was a volatility play.

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The 0% yield on MSTR cnotes can't be explained by vol arbing alone. MSTR's IV (and by extension the value of the embedded call option) is DIRECTLY tied to its bitcoin holdings. Arbutrageurs may have VIEWED this as a vol play, but the pricing of both the cnotes and the options, ultimately, reflects mkt sentiment and demand for exposure to bitcoin's vol and upside potential.

Ignoring bitcoin's role completely overlooks the fundamental driver of MSTR's volatility.

bearister said:

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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

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The banking system is a Ponzi scheme. Everything is a Ponzi scheme.