Is it time to go all in on Bitcoin?

16,035 Views | 218 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by concordtom
bear2034
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Cal89 said:

bear2034 said:

A lot has happened since your last post, namely Trump announcing a bitcoin strategic reserve for the country, the election win, the impending removal of Gary Gensler with a pro-crypto treasury secretary, and the start of options trading for bitcoin ETF products. We also have Michael Saylor's Microstrategies issuing debt and buying up massive amounts of bitcoin and front running the U.S. and other companies to the point where the company stock is outperforming bitcoin itself. What a crazy month!
Just seeing your response now. It has been a while...

Yup, a lot has transpired. Trump going pro Bitcoin and crypto, while the current administration was stupidly antagonistic toward digital assets, was huge. An estimated 50m Americans hold crypto. Many friends and ex-colleagues, most who are left-leaning, said they would likely vote for Trump. In 2016 and 2020, I don't recall any Trump yard signs down here in Morgan Hill. There were more than a few this year. The craziest thing for me though was on the Cal campus, someone wrote in chalk "God Bless Trump" or something like that... And, I visited the campus a week later, and it was still there! So many other indicators too, including the polls, that Trump had serious traction. I digress...

While I self-custody BTC and select cryptos for the long-term, I play the ETFs and Microstrategy too, mostly in retirement accounts (traditional and Roth). MSTR might as well stand for Monster! Silly profits that just makes me giddy looking at the balances. I have not sold MSTR yet, and I'm not sure I will for a while. Saylor is brilliant. I'll be layering-out of Fidelity's FBTC before I sell MSTR. Because of the "55 Rule" I can take 401K distributions without penalty, if desired. In taxable accounts, if there is indeed no capital gains on US-issued cryptos, buckle-up!

BTC is on the brink of $100K at this moment, with Google and Amazon in the sights...

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

What's interesting is that many OG bitcoin maximalists who are very familiar with Michael Saylor don't fully understand what's he's doing with MSTR. The discussions are all unfolding right now on Twitter. I have BTC in cold storage and had the ETF in my retirement account but exchanged the ETF for MSTR a week after the election. I wished I started with MSTR from the beginning! It was a blessing in disguise for those people who couldn't buy the bitcoin ETF from their brokerage firms and bought MSTR instead for bitcoin exposure. The challenge now is figuring out when to sell some of the overexposed MSTR allocation but the way things are going, I may never sell.
bearister
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I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.
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edwinbear
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bearister said:

I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.



Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.
CheezIt Bear
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edwinbear said:

bearister said:

I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.
https://i.redd.it/fkywevc0uoa91.jpg
Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.
https://consumer.ftc.gov/articles/what-know-about-cryptocurrency-and-scams

Quote:

Confused about cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin or Ether (associated with Ethereum)? You're not alone. Before you use or invest in cryptocurrency, know what makes it different from cash and other payment methods, and how to spot cryptocurrency scams or detect cryptocurrency accounts that may be compromised.

edwinbear
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CheezIt Bear said:

edwinbear said:

bearister said:

I'm thinking that if Bitcoin ever collapses like a giant Ponzi scheme that tRump and Musk are going to get all of their money back plus a tidy rate of return whereas a whole lotta Bros are going to be coming out of the toilet with just their dicks in their hands.

Nobody highly educated about bitcoin thinks bitcoin is a ponzi and will collapse.
https://consumer.ftc.gov/articles/what-know-about-cryptocurrency-and-scams

Quote:

Confused about cryptocurrencies, like bitcoin or Ether (associated with Ethereum)? You're not alone. Before you use or invest in cryptocurrency, know what makes it different from cash and other payment methods, and how to spot cryptocurrency scams or detect cryptocurrency accounts that may be compromised.


Lol, the government has known nothing about bitcoin for the last 15 years and is only now just catching up, hence the push for a national bitcoin strategic reserve. My point still stands.
bearister
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The first Rule of Bitcoin is that no one really understands Bitcoin.
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Send my credentials to the House of Detention
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edwinbear
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bearister said:

The first Rule of Bitcoin is that no one really understands Bitcoin.
This is so true. You can't understand bitcoin until you are humble enough to admit that you have no clue what bitcoin is. Bitcoin is on the cusp of $100K each and there are still people who say things like "bitcoin has no intrinsic value" or "bitcoin is going to zero." As long as they keep thinking they already know what bitcoin is, they will keep right on thinking this until bitcoin is 8 figures+ and their portfolio indirectly holds bitcoin anyways.
Cal88
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edwinbear said:

bearister said:

The first Rule of Bitcoin is that no one really understands Bitcoin.
This is so true. You can't understand bitcoin until you are humble enough to admit that you have no clue what bitcoin is. Bitcoin is on the cusp of $100K each and there are still people who say things like "bitcoin has no intrinsic value" or "bitcoin is going to zero." As long as they keep thinking they already know what bitcoin is, they will keep right on thinking this until bitcoin is 8 figures+ and their portfolio indirectly holds bitcoin anyways.

The risk of Bitcoin collapsing is very small but nonzero, it is subject to black swan-type events.

One aspect of bitcoin that governments like is that it will pave the way to CBDCs, which provide them with far greater control over the monetary system and individual investors.
concordtom
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Texted to wife:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/no-money-thousands-americans-see-223556135.html

Since you went to fintech conference, things one should know.


I have been waiting for the day when the US Govt bans non-sovereign currencies (cyber currencies) and everyone loses their asses, a la FTX and the vanished value of FTT coin.

However, now that trump and musk are in charge, I wouldn't be surprised if they legally sanction cyber-coins and bring about the total demise of the US dollar.

I haven't read anything about that, but stranger things have happened. Trump is just the kind of guy to do it.

But with traditional politicians, the day crypto threatens the US Dollar is the day it gets banned under some new legal interpretation or bill passed by Congress defining legal tender, and valuations plummet to zero.

You heard it here first! One way or another, both cannot survive, co-exist as equals. One will ultimately destroy the other.
 
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