Official BearInsider Election Day Thread

6,000 Views | 235 Replies | Last: 57 min ago by bear2034
bearister
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going4roses
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Tell someone you love them and try to have a good day
tequila4kapp
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going4roses said:


In many states there are laws about campaigning inside the polling station; wearing swag could easily qualify.
bear2034
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tequila4kapp said:


In many states there are laws about campaigning inside the polling station; wearing swag could easily qualify.

Often times, it's not the laws that matter but rather those who enforce them
bearister
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Trump Floats Rigged Election Theory Before Polls Even Close


https://www.mediaite.com/trump/trump-floats-rigged-election-theory-before-polls-even-close-massive-cheating/

*It appears that tRump has received an encrypted communique from Musk/Military Unit 74455 that Dominion has come up with a tweak that has put the kibosh on the hack that was flipping Harris votes to tRump.
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SBGold
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Disinformation coming from the foreign adversaries and being spread by BI MAGAts, no thanks

[url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/fake-georgia-voting-video-russian-disinformation/index.html][/url][url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/fake-georgia-voting-video-russian-disinformation/index.html][/url][url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/fake-georgia-voting-video-russian-disinformation/index.html][/url][url=https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/fake-georgia-voting-video-russian-disinformation/index.html][/url]https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/04/politics/fake-georgia-voting-video-russian-disinformation/index.html

It's part of the MAGAt playbook, intel agencies doing a lot of warning about this.

Don't buy into disinformation.

VOTE BLUE and eliminate MAGAts
going4roses
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That's bad business.

Was she in one of those jurisdictions that allows it ? Or not ?
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philly1121
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bear2034 said:

tequila4kapp said:


In many states there are laws about campaigning inside the polling station; wearing swag could easily qualify.

Often times, it's not the laws that matter but rather those who enforce them
is she camaigning? It looks like she's just taking a picture.

Also, can poor little Cami go home and change her clothes and then go back and vote? What a poser. She knew exactly what she was doing and wanted to make a statement. Loser.
bearister
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bearister said:




"Under Florida law, if a voter has an out-of-state conviction, Florida will defer to that state's laws for how a felon can regain his or her voting rights.

For Trump, that means he will benefit from a 2021 New York law that allows people with felony convictions to vote as long as they're not serving a term of incarceration at the time of the election."
-CNN
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bear2034
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Cal88
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Looks like Trump has won Florida.

Kamala needs to do really well in the rust belt to pull this off.
bearister
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Watching Steve Kornacki has the same effect on me as watching RedZone…….,

It induces TV psychosis.




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bear2034
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Cal88 said:

Kamala needs to do really well in the rust belt to pull this off.
bear2034
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It's starting to look like a red wave.
bearister
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dimitrig
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Good news is Trump is not doing better than expected.

Bad news is Harris is not doing better than expected.

I haven't seen anyone willing to go out on any limbs yet with polls still open out West.
bear2034
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bear2034
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Donald Trump has surpassed the magical 69.420% chance of winning the election on the Kalshi website.

dimitrig
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Cal88 said:

Looks like Trump has won Florida.

Kamala needs to do really well in the rust belt to pull this off.


Remember when Florida was a swing state?

What happened demographically?
bear2034
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bear2034
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tequila4kapp
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Current NYT forecast

Cal88
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dimitrig said:

Cal88 said:

Looks like Trump has won Florida.

Kamala needs to do really well in the rust belt to pull this off.

Remember when Florida was a swing state?

What happened demographically?


Trump doing a lot better with Latinos across the board, also gaining with Blacks, and ironically losing with some White demographics (Boomers, suburban).

NYT now leaning heavily in the red.

dimitrig
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If only there had been some mechanism for Dem voters to choose the candidate for their party… call it a primary vote.

The electorate could decide who they liked best and that person would be vetted in a way.

One of Harris' problems (and there are many) is that she is associated with Joe Biden.

Voters would have had a chance to voice their pleasure or displeasure with his Presidency by electing someone to continue his policies (Harris) or fresh blood (someone else).

Thinking Harris would be a surrogate Biden (or that voters WANTED a surrogate Biden given his abysmal approval rating) was a grave mistake.

She still has paths to win at this moment but it is clear she has far underperformed Sleepy Joe for sure.
tequila4kapp
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We have a long way to go
dimitrig
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tequila4kapp said:

We have a long way to go


Not really.

Trump is doing what he needs to do to win.

Harris +3 in Scranton. Joe was +8. She hasn't overperformed anywhere really. She doesn't need to but if Trump overperforms everywhere, like he seems to be doing, he will be President.

The exit polls are not good with a majority of first time voters saying they voted for Trump which is quite surprising.

In the last election, it was the absentee ballots counted later that changed the early results and they were predicted to be (and were) largely Democrat.

Does anyone know how those were tabulated this time?
Cal88
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Can someone talk Tom and SBGold off the ledge?

75bear
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dimitrig said:


If only there had been some mechanism for Dem voters to choose the candidate for their party… call it a primary vote.

The electorate could decide who they liked best and that person would be vetted in a way.

One of Harris' problems (and there are many) is that she is associated with Joe Biden.

Voters would have had a chance to voice their pleasure or displeasure with his Presidency by electing someone to continue his policies (Harris) or fresh blood (someone else).

Thinking Harris would be a surrogate Biden (or that voters WANTED a surrogate Biden given his abysmal approval rating) was a grave mistake.

She still has paths to win at this moment but it is clear she has far underperformed Sleepy Joe for sure.

Yep, this was a monumental mistake.
bearister
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I say if Harris loses, Biden declares the Election fraudulent and Harris refuses to certify the Election.
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dimitrig
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Replying to my own post, it will be the same this time in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Michigan changed the law to start counting those earlier.

Will those be mostly blue again this time? Who knows?

Link:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/dont-be-fooled-by-early-us-vote-counts-they-might-be-misleading-2024-11-05/

Cal88
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88% now.
tequila4kapp
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dimitrig said:

tequila4kapp said:

We have a long way to go


Not really.

Trump is doing what he needs to do to win.

Harris +3 in Scranton. Joe was +8. She hasn't overperformed anywhere really. She doesn't need to but if Trump overperforms everywhere, like he seems to be doing, he will be President.

The exit polls are not good with a majority of first time voters saying they voted for Trump which is quite surprising.

In the last election, it was the absentee ballots counted later that changed the early results and they were predicted to be (and were) largely Democrat.

Does anyone know how those were tabulated this time?

yes, but the blue wall is still there for Harris
BearGoggles
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dimitrig said:

tequila4kapp said:

We have a long way to go


Not really.

Trump is doing what he needs to do to win.

Harris +3 in Scranton. Joe was +8. She hasn't overperformed anywhere really. She doesn't need to but if Trump overperforms everywhere, like he seems to be doing, he will be President.

The exit polls are not good with a majority of first time voters saying they voted for Trump which is quite surprising.

In the last election, it was the absentee ballots counted later that changed the early results and they were predicted to be (and were) largely Democrat.

Does anyone know how those were tabulated this time?

It weird that to you this is all about Harris underperforming and not about Trump performing better. Trump has done massively better with Latinos, black men, and even suburban women (losing by less). BIden/Harris policies are unpopular.

In terms of absentee/mail in ballots, there is a variation. In some states, those are counted ahead of time/first. in others last. But the biggest difference is that in 2020, the dems had a MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE advantage in the number of mail in votes, mostly because Trump stupidly told his voters not to use them.

This time, the republicans also went all in on collecting mail in votes, particularly in Penn, Arizona and Nevada. There won't be the same mail in surge for dems, which is why the NY Times and others will make a call if the margin remains wide for Trump.
Cal88
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Gaza fallout. Biden won it by a wide margin.

dimitrig
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BearGoggles said:

dimitrig said:

tequila4kapp said:

We have a long way to go


Not really.

Trump is doing what he needs to do to win.

Harris +3 in Scranton. Joe was +8. She hasn't overperformed anywhere really. She doesn't need to but if Trump overperforms everywhere, like he seems to be doing, he will be President.

The exit polls are not good with a majority of first time voters saying they voted for Trump which is quite surprising.

In the last election, it was the absentee ballots counted later that changed the early results and they were predicted to be (and were) largely Democrat.

Does anyone know how those were tabulated this time?

It weird that to you this is all about Harris underperforming and not about Trump performing better. Trump has done massively better with Latinos, black men, and even suburban women (losing by less). BIden/Harris policies are unpopular.

In terms of absentee/mail in ballots, there is a variation. In some states, those are counted ahead of time/first. in others last. But the biggest difference is that in 2020, the dems had a MASSIVE MASSIVE MASSIVE advantage in the number of mail in votes, mostly because Trump stupidly told his voters not to use them.

This time, the republicans also went all in on collecting mail in votes, particularly in Penn, Arizona and Nevada. There won't be the same mail in surge for dems, which is why the NY Times and others will make a call if the margin remains wide for Trump.


I said right in my post that Trump is overperforming
 
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