The Economy

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DiabloWags
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11:37a, 2/8/25
Americans spending picked up in the last 3 months of 2024 to a 4.2% annual rate of increase, the strongest pace in almost two years and an acceleration from the preceding quarter's already robust 3.7%

And make no mistake, spending has been growing faster than incomes owing to consumer's surging wealth.

In other words, the economy is a reflection of the stock market,vand not the other way around.

An important concept as we move through 2025.
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DiabloWags
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11:20a, 2/10/25
January saw 143,000 jobs added.
Unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%

169,000 had been expected.

November and December's numbers were revised upward by a total of 100,000.

Bear2034 will be happy to hear that the annual revision came out for 12-months ending March 2024 at - 598,000 and not the initial 818,000 decline that the Labor Dept had preliminarily reported last August that ear2033 and others had "tripped" out on.

Trump must have manipulated the number lower.
MAGA!
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bear2034
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:18a, 2/12/25

Where are you getting your numbers from, Politico? I hear subscriptions are sharply down lately.
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DiabloWags
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10:20a, 2/12/25
CPI comes in hotter than the expected 0.3% for the month of January at 0.5%
For the last 12 months thru January, the CPI increased 3.0%

Both 3-month and 6-month annualized reads are also moving higher.

PPI comes out tomorrow.
This will no doubt be most important given that it reflects producers going in and purchasing items in ADVANCE of the tariffs.

No matter which way the Fed slices and dices the data, the Fed should not be cutting rates anymore.
This is gonna piss off the Orange Buffoon in the Oval Office.

MAGA!
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bear2034
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10:26a, 2/12/25

Less fraud and waste is a win for America.
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bear2034
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In reply to DiabloWags • 10:43a, 2/12/25
DiabloWags said:
January saw 143,000 jobs added.
Unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%

169,000 had been expected.

November and December's numbers were revised upward by a total of 100,000.

Bear2034 will be happy to hear that the annual revision came out for 12-months ending March 2024 at - 598,000 and not the initial 818,000 decline that the Labor Dept had preliminarily reported last August that ear2033 and others had "tripped" out on.

Trump must have manipulated the number lower.
MAGA!

Biden relied on fake job numbers his entire presidency.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to bear2034 • 11:00a, 2/12/25
And you rely on nothing but pure IGNORANCE.
Doesn't sound like you even bothered to read the Politico article by Eugene Ludwig.

You did nothing more than your typical posting of something from some guy on Twitter who (like you) has no clue that there is an annual revision that occurs in the late summer for all job numbers in the 12-month period ending in March by the Bureau of Labor. This happens every year and happens regardless of who is in the White House.

There is no FAKE jobs data as you claim.

You just don't have a clue how the "headline" (official) unemployment number that is announced the first Friday of every month is based on U-3, which is Total Unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force.

The BLS has a total of 6 different measures of Unemployment.
You clearly have no clue about this.

It's why the U-3 unemployment rate was 4.0% in January vs the U-6 rate at 7.5%

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization - 2025 M01 Results

Once again, you operate from a terribly poor knowledge base.
You demonstrate that 40x a day here.


Voters Were Right About the Economy. The Data Was Wrong. - POLITICO
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DiabloWags
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4:18p, 2/14/25
U.S. Retail Sales post the biggest drop in 2 years.

Thank You President Trump.
MAGA!

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/14/retail-sales-slumped-0point9percent-in-january-down-much-more-than-expected-.html
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AunBear89
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5:52p, 2/14/25
Gasoline up another $.20/gallon this week.

Winning!
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- (maybe) Benjamin Disraeli, popularized by Mark Twain
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DiabloWags
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In reply to AunBear89 • 5:57p, 2/14/25
It's up .80 cents since Feb. 1st.

So much WINNING!

MAGA!!!
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DiabloWags
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8:23a, 2/19/25
The National Association of Home Builder's Housing Market Index dropped a sharp 5 points from January to a reading of 42. Anything below 50 is considered negative sentiment. Last February, the index stood at 48.

This is the lowest level in 5 months.
Tariffs.

U.S. homebuilders raise alarm over tariffs as sentiment falls to 5-month low
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Cal88
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9:07a, 2/19/25
Canada supplies around 1/4 of US softwood lumber.
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DiabloWags
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7:35a, 2/21/25
Walmart only sees 3 to 4% annual sales growth, lower than 5.1% last year.
Guides lower for fiscal 2026.

Not a good forecast for the nation's "bellwether" retailer.
CEO says that they won't be immune to tariffs.

Walmart, the bellwether of retail, warns of rough seas ahead

Walmart Stock Slides After EarningsWalton Family Loses Billions




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oski003
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8:11a, 2/21/25
$1 out of every $3 circulating was created in the past 5 years.
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concordtom
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8:13a, 2/21/25
Meanwhile, China indices are looking up
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DiabloWags
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In reply to oski003 • 8:57a, 2/21/25
oski003 said:
$1 out of every $3 circulating was created in the past 5 years.

I don't believe that the money supply tripled.

Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

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oski003
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:59a, 2/21/25
DiabloWags said:
oski003 said:
$1 out of every $3 circulating was created in the past 5 years.

I don't believe that the money supply tripled.

Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed



Me neither.
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DiabloWags
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7:01p, 2/21/25
Markets collapse on plunging February Consumer Sentiment number.

From 71.7% to 64.7%

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-consumer-sentiment-plunges-worries-over-prices-from-inflation-tariffs

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DiabloWags
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9:50a, 2/22/25
Inflation expectations at a 3 decade high.

Consumers said they expect prices will climb at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to 10 years, according to the final February reading from the University of Michigan.

The rate is the highest since 1995, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. All five components of the index deteriorated, including a drop in buying conditions for big-ticket items. And more than half of consumers in the survey expect the unemployment rate to rise over the next year, the highest since 2020.
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DiabloWags
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12:30p, 2/25/25
MAGA!!!

Largest Monthly Decline since August of 2021.
- 7 points to 98.3

The cutoff date for the survey was February 19. Confidence slumped across all age groups, with sharp decreases in the 35-55 age cohort. Nearly all income groups reported a decline, with the exception of households earning less than $15,000 a year and between $100,000125,000.

"There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019," said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, global indicators at the Conference Board.

Consumers average INFLATION expectation jumped to 6%, the highest since May 2023, from 5.2% last month.

Trump policy concerns send US consumer confidence plummeting to eight-month low
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DiabloWags
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9:20a, 2/26/25

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DiabloWags
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2:56p, 2/26/25
Atlanta Real GDP Now forecast at 2.3%

Next update on Friday when personal income and outlays is released.

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
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DiabloWags
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7:09a, 2/27/25
Final Q4 GDP announced today at 2.3%

Q4 GDP Holds At 2.3% After Minor Revision In Second Estimate - SPDR S&P 500 (ARCA:SPY) - Benzinga
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DiabloWags
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7:40a, 2/28/25
Trump won't be liking these Poll numbers:


77% of Americans say their income was not keeping up with Inflation.

62% of Americans think that prices have been going up.

60% of Americans think that the economy is bad now.

52% of Americans are concerned about how to pay for food and groceries


Americans say incomes not keeping up with inflation CBS News poll - CBS News
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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 7:46a, 2/28/25
DiabloWags said:
Americans spending picked up in the last 3 months of 2024 to a 4.2% annual rate of increase, the strongest pace in almost two years and an acceleration from the preceding quarter's already robust 3.7%

And make no mistake, spending has been growing faster than incomes owing to consumer's surging wealth.

In other words, the economy is a reflection of the stock market,vand not the other way around.

An important concept as we move through 2025.


I'll take the flip side here.
This stock market wealth can be wiped out in an instant.
You're seeing bubble spending.
Stock market and real estate wealth, for some. Lack of savings for all.

What are those stats about the percentage of Americans who have no savings, no stocks? It's huge.

PS: forgive the grumpy face emoji. I didn't know I accidentally hit that.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 7:59a, 2/28/25
Tom, I think that you missed what I was saying about looking forward in 2025.

The economy is a reflection of the stock market, and not the other way around.

Of course that can turn in an instant.
That was whole point.
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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:01a, 2/28/25
DiabloWags said:
oski003 said:
$1 out of every $3 circulating was created in the past 5 years.

I don't believe that the money supply tripled.

Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed


Maybe oski is referring to actual physical bills. The retire bills when old and crumpled and replace with fresh stiffies.

Oski would be dense enough to spin that unknowingly
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 8:02a, 2/28/25
concordtom said:


What are those stats about the percentage of Americans who have no savings, no stocks? It's huge.

63% of Americans don't have enough savings to cover a $500 or $1000 Emergency.
Per a survey in 2016 from Bankrate.

Per Pew Charitable Trusts, 33% of American families have no savings at all.

Magnify Money reported that results from a study found that 56.3% of people have less than $1,000 in their checking/savings accounts combined.

63% Of Americans Don't Have Enough Savings To Cover A $500 Emergency



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concordtom
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:04a, 2/28/25
DiabloWags said:
Tom, I think that you missed what I was saying about looking forward in 2025.

The economy is a reflection of the stock market, and not the other way around.

Of course that can turn in an instant.
That was whole point.

You were being facetious. Ah.

Because , we both know, the stock market is considered forward looking, a leading economic indicator.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 8:14a, 2/28/25
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
Tom, I think that you missed what I was saying about looking forward in 2025.

The economy is a reflection of the stock market, and not the other way around.

Of course that can turn in an instant.
That was whole point.

You were being facetious. Ah.

Because , we both know, the stock market is considered forward looking, a leading economic indicator.

No.
I was making a nuanced point that escaped you.

The stock market can be a reflection of the economy AND looking forward.

But my point is that (recently) it has been the other way around.
The economy is a reflection of the stock market.

That is, unless you are a Tesla shareholder.



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oski003
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In reply to concordtom • 8:17a, 2/28/25
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
oski003 said:
$1 out of every $3 circulating was created in the past 5 years.

I don't believe that the money supply tripled.

Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed


Maybe oski is referring to actual physical bills. The retire bills when old and crumpled and replace with fresh stiffies.

Oski would be dense enough to spin that unknowingly


No, it is just basically math. 1 out of every $3 being new in circulation does not at all equal the money supply tripling. It is just another case of Diablo confidently asserting something that is illogical and wrong.
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DiabloWags
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In reply to oski003 • 8:22a, 2/28/25
Since you've repeatedly proven to post highly erroneous statements here, it might help your case to actually post a link that substantiates the "claims" that you make.

For some reason, you consistently fail to do that.
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oski003
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In reply to DiabloWags • 8:22a, 2/28/25
DiabloWags said:
Since you've repeatedly proven to post highly erroneous statements here, it might help your case to actually post a link that substantiates the "claims" that you make.

For some reason, you consistently fail to do that.


No problem. Here are two links that will help you understand math.

https://www.cuemath.com/ratio-formula/

https://www.wikihow.com/Calculate-Ratios
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DiabloWags
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In reply to concordtom • 8:33a, 2/28/25
concordtom said:
DiabloWags said:
oski003 said:
$1 out of every $3 circulating was created in the past 5 years.

I don't believe that the money supply tripled.

Monetary Base: Total (BOGMBASE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

M2 (M2SL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed


Maybe oski is referring to actual physical bills. The retire bills when old and crumpled and replace with fresh stiffies.

Oski would be dense enough to spin that unknowingly

Yup.
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DiabloWags
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8:37a, 2/28/25
Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP NOW just fell off a cliff for Q1.

From 2.3% to - 1.5%

Atlanta Fed now sees U.S. economy contracting 1.5% in first quarter, first decline in three years - MarketWatch

GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta







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