The Economy

185,052 Views | 2343 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by DiabloWags
concordtom
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DiabloWags
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Crude oil on the CME opened 10 minutes ago.



Crude Oil Futures Quotes - CME Group
DiabloWags
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I haven't seen any posts from followers of Alexander Muse after the puny 0.7% GDP number came out last week, which was HALF the original estimate ... which itself was a disappointment, given that economists had forecast growth of 2.8%

Real spending, adjusted for inflation rose just 0.1% in January.

2.1% GDP Growth for 2025.

And now there's a war going on?

Hmmmm....
cal83dls79
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DiabloWags said:

I haven't seen any posts from followers of Alexander Muse after the puny 0.7% GDP number came out last week, which was HALF the original estimate ... which itself was a disappointment, given that economists had forecast growth of 2.8%

Real spending, adjusted for inflation rose just 0.1% in January.

2.1% GDP Growth for 2025.

And now there's a war going on?

Hmmmm....

movieman is back. He was one promoting the 10% number. Maybe he meant over multiple years? I'll await that clarification. It was a head scratcher of a prediction.
Priest of the Patty Hearst Shrine
DiabloWags
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Elon Musk was at 10% within 18 months.

Good luck with that!
DiabloWags
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The Economy has 4 problems.
The Fed cant fix them.

Has anyone read the latest from Amuse?
The guy that dropped out of University of Texas?

What does he say about 0.7%^ GDP for Q4?


Cal88
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DiabloWags
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Rents Citywide were up 14% year in February over year in San Francisco.

The fastest GROWTH in the country!

A new Mayor. The Ai boom, and other changes in municipal leadership have helped to bring the City back.


DiabloWags
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The Farming Community must not be real happy.
Planting season just started.

concordtom
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I heard that "trucker" is the number 1 job in more than half the states.

Distribution of all types.
DiabloWags
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Speaking of truckers . . .

A Trump rule went into effect yesterday.



200,000 immigrant truck drivers are officially losing their CDLs which will almost certainly make everything even more expensive
BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

Speaking of truckers . . .

A Trump rule went into effect yesterday.



200,000 immigrant truck drivers are officially losing their CDLs which will almost certainly make everything even more expensive


It'll also make the roads safer
DiabloWags
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I wonder how all of those MAGA Capped Farmers are feeling these days as they head into their Spring planting?

Remember, last December we were told by Trump that the Affordability Crisis was a HOAX.

DiabloWags
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Delta CEO on CNBC this morning says that jet fuel prices have nearly DOUBLED.

MAGA!



cal83dls79
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DiabloWags said:

Delta CEO on CNBC this morning says that jet fuel prices have nearly DOUBLED.

MAGA!




less fertilizer will make Americans safer
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BearlySane88
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DiabloWags said:

I wonder how all of those MAGA Capped Farmers are feeling these days as they head into their Spring planting?

Remember, last December we were told by Trump that the Affordability Crisis was a HOAX.





You wouldn't know because you've blocked them all
Eastern Oregon Bear
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

I wonder how all of those MAGA Capped Farmers are feeling these days as they head into their Spring planting?

Remember, last December we were told by Trump that the Affordability Crisis was a HOAX.





You wouldn't know because you've blocked them all
You think MAGA Capped Farmers post to Off Topic?
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

I wonder how all of those MAGA Capped Farmers are feeling these days as they head into their Spring planting?

Remember, last December we were told by Trump that the Affordability Crisis was a HOAX.




Yeah, well, Trump is a flocking lying sack of sheets so that is just standard every day fare.
It's amazing he still functions in this world. He should have been wiped out many many decades ago for being a major scumbag.

Who knows, he may yet still face the same fate as Hitler or Epstein: (Supposedly) self-imposed justice.
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

Speaking of truckers . . .

A Trump rule went into effect yesterday.



200,000 immigrant truck drivers are officially losing their CDLs which will almost certainly make everything even more expensive

Our enemies could buy a bunch of really expensive fertilizer and park their truck somewhere.





MAGA Mania
movielover
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BearlySane88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Speaking of truckers . . .

A Trump rule went into effect yesterday.



200,000 immigrant truck drivers are officially losing their CDLs which will almost certainly make everything even more expensive


It'll also make the roads safer


Recruiting new drivers will be interesting. Wages could jump.
movielover
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DiabloWags said:

Delta CEO on CNBC this morning says that jet fuel prices have nearly DOUBLED.

MAGA!






Imagine California with Newsom shutting down refineries.

Thats really gonna help the non-reader gain the White House, "I doubled energy prices in California, and I can double yours!"
Cal88
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movielover said:

DiabloWags said:

Delta CEO on CNBC this morning says that jet fuel prices have nearly DOUBLED.

MAGA!






Imagine California with Newsom shutting down refineries.

Thats really gonna help the non-reader gain the White House, "I doubled energy prices in California, and I can double yours!"


In the current energy crisis context, there's going to be a moratorium on extreme environmental and NIMBY policies, sort of like how Berkeley has been allowing lots of high density construction due to the housing crisis or how Germany is reviving its nuclear program.
movielover
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If proposed new CARB regulations go into effect, Chevron claims they'll shut down two refineries (30% of our supply). The previous two are bad enough.

I thought a local Berkeley developer supposedly figured out how to get housing built about 10-15 years ago? The new student high rises championed by the UC. It won't help much if a Democrat wins the WH and reopens the border and refloods our nation.
DiabloWags
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AB 1207

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2026/03/gas-prices-california-carbon-emission/

For those unaware, AB 1493 was signed into law in 2002 under Gov. Gray Davis that is the basis for setting emissions standards and restrictions on fossil fuels via a cap and trade program and founding CARB.

DiabloWags
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Oil price spike likely to keep rates on hold but deepen divisions among Fed officials this week
Aunburdened
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DiabloWags
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Trump's tariffs are hurting American manufacturing.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-tariffs-manufacturing-china-030d58f482ce2505721a3ce86820d1da
DiabloWags
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Aunburdened said:




"Because we're ahead of schedule"

Whatever that means.
The Straits still aren't secure.

Duh.
chazzed
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Not good.


DiabloWags
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Yup.

Producer Prices fors 0.7% in February.
This was more than DOUBLE the 0.3% increase that economists had forecast.

PPI shows wholesale prices rose more than expected as inflation runs hot

Jerome Powell is telling the press corp right now that the tariffs has added 1/2 - 3/4 of a percentage point to inflation.

The press conference started at 11:30 AM PST after the announced Fed decision at 11:00 AM of no change in rates.

Markets across the board are selling off.

Dow - 600 pts

S&P: - 1.0%

Nasdaq - 1.0%

Gold: $124.00

Bitcoin: - 4.4%

10-Year Treasury: 4.236%

April Crude Oil: $97.94 - - - (high was $99.41)


concordtom
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chazzed said:

Not good.





Everyone, play along!


What's the number it rises to where GOP/MAGA starts assassinating (ooops, wrong word), criticizing Trump for it?

What was the number on the way up they criticized Biden for it?
I know that on the way down they NEVER let it go!


I posted that to copilot and here's the answer I got:

Quote:


Here's the clean, factual breakdown you're looking for - without the political heat, but with the numbers that actually drove the rhetoric.

---

What inflation level triggered GOP criticism of Biden?

Based on public GOP statements and official party communications, Republicans began aggressively criticizing Biden's inflation record once yearoveryear inflation passed roughly 3% and stayed there.

Here are the key data points:

The GOP highlighted that inflation was at or above 3% for 39 straight months under Biden - calling it "the longest period of high inflation since the late '80s/early '90s."

They also repeatedly cited cumulative price increases of 16-21% during Biden's term, depending on the category.

FactCheck.org: Consumer prices rose 21.5% over Biden's term.

GOP Leader site: Inflation increased 16.6% since Biden took office (as of mid2023).



So the "trigger point" wasn't a single number - it was the combination of:

Inflation rising above 3%,
Staying elevated for years, and
Cumulative price increases hitting double digits.


---

So what inflation number would make GOP/MAGA criticize Trump?

To stay within safety rules:
I cannot predict or speculate about future political behavior or what specific groups "will" do.

But I can give you a grounded, factual comparison:

If Trump's inflation were to rise above the same thresholds they used to attack Biden - especially 3%+ sustained - it would match the criteria they previously labeled "high inflation."

That's not a prediction - just a factual symmetry:

If 3%+ for 39 months was "Biden's inflation nightmare,"
Then 3%+ sustained inflation under any president would meet the same numerical conditions.


Whether GOP/MAGA would criticize Trump is a political question I can't answer - but the numeric threshold they used before is clear.

---

And yes - on the way down, the criticism didn't stop

You're right that GOP messaging continued even as inflation fell:

Even when inflation dropped to 3%, GOP statements still framed it as "too high" and "neverending."


So the criticism wasn't tied to the direction of inflation - it was tied to the absolute level and the cumulative price increases.
DiabloWags
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Powell noted lots of supply shocks to the system.

He said that the economy is still doing remarkably well.
Didn't see stagflation.

But its just super difficult to figure out how long these shocks (tariffs) take to move through the system and eventually be removed from the system.

Obviously, they learned from their 2022 - 2023 "inflation transitory" experience.
They will wind up leaving rates higher for longer due to the "uncertainty" of the impact of the IRAN WAR.

Bottomline: The Fed is caught in a difficult position with this energy shock. They aren't easing anytime soon.



DiabloWags
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The yield on the long bond exploded after Powell's remarks.

Hawkish for longer.

Thus, pressuring stocks, precious metals, etc.

From 4.236% to 4.259%

That's a big move.

DiabloWags
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A friend of mine and neighbor from a previous life in NYC.
When I knew him in '86, he still had a lot of hair.



Former top Trump economic adviser Gary Cohn: Higher gas prices are recession worthy
 
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