The Economy

14,310 Views | 323 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by bear2034
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:




The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

The inflation numbers have also been problematic as of late due to staffing shortages that affect survey precision.
This has hampered the government's ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month's inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.


This is good news for Trump.
Because then HE can become the arbiter of economic statistics!
The "problem" is by design.

Just listen to Marty Baron



DiabloWags
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tequila4kapp said:



You are correct, I did not go back and revisit the revised numbers for those months.

When I looked into this a few weeks ago the ratio was heavily in favor of revisions in that direction, maybe something like a ratio of 4:1. It appears that job numbers are nearly always revised down. It appears to me we have a systemic problem with the estimates formula / methodology.

The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

Something else that you need to take into consideration is the tighter labor supply - - - resulting from immigration restrictions and lower labor force participation rates - - - has held down the unemployment rate recently.

At the same time, workers have seen solid wage growth despite slowing payroll increases. With deceleration in the labor force, it takes LESS HIRING TO MAINTAIN a jobless rate consistent with full employment.

With the prospect of 1.3 million deportations over the next year, I've seen economists estimate that it will only take non-farm payroll rises of just 70,000 to maintain the jobless rate at current levels later this year, and only 50,000 monthly hires to do so in 2026.
tequila4kapp
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Inflation report for May: mostly flat, beat estimates
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/06/11/inflation-remains-tame-for-fourth-straight-month-defying-predictions-that-tariffs-would-raise-consumer-prices/

U.S consumer prices barely rose at all in May, the fourth straight month of mild inflation ***.

The consumer price index, the government's main inflation indicator, 0.1 percent compared with a month earlier, the Department of Labor said Wednesday. Core prices, a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, also climbed just 0.1 percent.

Compared with a year ago, consumer prices are up 2.4 percent. Core prices have risen 2.8 percent.
Economists had forecast prices would rise 0.2 percent, matching the tame inflation figure reported for April. Core prices were expected to rise 0.3 percent, a slightly faster pace than the 0.2 percent seen in the prior month.

***

Energy prices fell 2.4 percent in May, led by a 2.6 percent decline in gasoline. Compared with a year ago, gasoline prices are down 12.0 percent.

Grocery prices rose 0.3 percent, partially reversing the prior month's 0.4 percent decline. Over the past year, grocery prices increased 2.2 percent. Restaurant prices also rose 0.3 percent and are up 3.8 percent over the past year. Egg prices dropped 2.7 percent following the prior month's 12.7 percent decline.

Durable goods prices, the broadest category that economists had thought would be heavily hit by tariffs, fell 0.1 percent in May and are flat compared with a year earlier. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.3 percent. Excluding food, nondurable goods prices dropped 0.9 percent.

The prices of new cars, one of the categories of goods expected to be under pressure from tariffs, fell 0.3 percent in May. This was the second month of declining car prices this year. In April, prices were flat. In March, new car prices ticked up just 0.1 percent. They fell in February after being unchanged in January.
Used car prices also fell in May, dropping 0.5 percent. This was the third straight decline for used car prices.

Prices of core goods, a metric which excludes food energy, were flat for the month and are up just 0.3 percent compared with a year ago.

Apparel prices, another category that many analysts said would face inflation pressure from tariffs, also fell. This was the second straight month of falling clothing prices. Prices of men's and women's shoes also fell.

Prices of household furniture climbed 0.3 percent after inching up 0.2 percent in April. They were flat in March and are unchanged for the year.

Appliance prices may be showing some tariff pressure. These rose 0.8 percent for a second straight month. Compared with a year ago, however, prices are down 0.8 percent, so the recent increases may also be a rebound from earlier deflation.

Smart phone prices fell in May, as they did in each of the two prior months. Computer prices rose by a sharp 1.1 percent in May but are down 3.5 percent over the past 12 months.

Inflation was mild even in services, which has been the source of inflationary pressures over the past year or so. Core services prices, a metric that excludes energy services, rose 0.2 percent in May. Excluding residential rents, services prices rose by a mild 0.2 percent.
oski003
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The treasury sale of $39 billion 10 year notes was decent. The yield at 4.142% is a fraction lower than the yield at the bidding deadline.
Anarchistbear
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Looks like a taco tariff deal that will lessen inflationary fears.
bear2034
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The same people who told us inflation numbers under Biden were transitory are telling us Trump's tariffs will be inflationary.
DiabloWags
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$22 Billion of the 30-year will be auctioned tomorrow. Those results will be most interesting
bear2034
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bear2034
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Jerome Powell cut rates right before the 2024 election when inflation was still high for one reason and one reason only, to throw Kamala Harris a lifeline. There was no economic justification, except to give the perception that the economy was doing way better than it was.
 
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