The Economy

15,768 Views | 342 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by DiabloWags
concordtom
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags said:

tequila4kapp said:




The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

The inflation numbers have also been problematic as of late due to staffing shortages that affect survey precision.
This has hampered the government's ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.


The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month's inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.


This is good news for Trump.
Because then HE can become the arbiter of economic statistics!
The "problem" is by design.

Just listen to Marty Baron



DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
tequila4kapp said:



You are correct, I did not go back and revisit the revised numbers for those months.

When I looked into this a few weeks ago the ratio was heavily in favor of revisions in that direction, maybe something like a ratio of 4:1. It appears that job numbers are nearly always revised down. It appears to me we have a systemic problem with the estimates formula / methodology.

The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

Something else that you need to take into consideration is the tighter labor supply - - - resulting from immigration restrictions and lower labor force participation rates - - - has held down the unemployment rate recently.

At the same time, workers have seen solid wage growth despite slowing payroll increases. With deceleration in the labor force, it takes LESS HIRING TO MAINTAIN a jobless rate consistent with full employment.

With the prospect of 1.3 million deportations over the next year, I've seen economists estimate that it will only take non-farm payroll rises of just 70,000 to maintain the jobless rate at current levels later this year, and only 50,000 monthly hires to do so in 2026.
tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Inflation report for May: mostly flat, beat estimates
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/06/11/inflation-remains-tame-for-fourth-straight-month-defying-predictions-that-tariffs-would-raise-consumer-prices/

U.S consumer prices barely rose at all in May, the fourth straight month of mild inflation ***.

The consumer price index, the government's main inflation indicator, 0.1 percent compared with a month earlier, the Department of Labor said Wednesday. Core prices, a measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, also climbed just 0.1 percent.

Compared with a year ago, consumer prices are up 2.4 percent. Core prices have risen 2.8 percent.
Economists had forecast prices would rise 0.2 percent, matching the tame inflation figure reported for April. Core prices were expected to rise 0.3 percent, a slightly faster pace than the 0.2 percent seen in the prior month.

***

Energy prices fell 2.4 percent in May, led by a 2.6 percent decline in gasoline. Compared with a year ago, gasoline prices are down 12.0 percent.

Grocery prices rose 0.3 percent, partially reversing the prior month's 0.4 percent decline. Over the past year, grocery prices increased 2.2 percent. Restaurant prices also rose 0.3 percent and are up 3.8 percent over the past year. Egg prices dropped 2.7 percent following the prior month's 12.7 percent decline.

Durable goods prices, the broadest category that economists had thought would be heavily hit by tariffs, fell 0.1 percent in May and are flat compared with a year earlier. Nondurable goods prices fell 0.3 percent. Excluding food, nondurable goods prices dropped 0.9 percent.

The prices of new cars, one of the categories of goods expected to be under pressure from tariffs, fell 0.3 percent in May. This was the second month of declining car prices this year. In April, prices were flat. In March, new car prices ticked up just 0.1 percent. They fell in February after being unchanged in January.
Used car prices also fell in May, dropping 0.5 percent. This was the third straight decline for used car prices.

Prices of core goods, a metric which excludes food energy, were flat for the month and are up just 0.3 percent compared with a year ago.

Apparel prices, another category that many analysts said would face inflation pressure from tariffs, also fell. This was the second straight month of falling clothing prices. Prices of men's and women's shoes also fell.

Prices of household furniture climbed 0.3 percent after inching up 0.2 percent in April. They were flat in March and are unchanged for the year.

Appliance prices may be showing some tariff pressure. These rose 0.8 percent for a second straight month. Compared with a year ago, however, prices are down 0.8 percent, so the recent increases may also be a rebound from earlier deflation.

Smart phone prices fell in May, as they did in each of the two prior months. Computer prices rose by a sharp 1.1 percent in May but are down 3.5 percent over the past 12 months.

Inflation was mild even in services, which has been the source of inflationary pressures over the past year or so. Core services prices, a metric that excludes energy services, rose 0.2 percent in May. Excluding residential rents, services prices rose by a mild 0.2 percent.
oski003
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The treasury sale of $39 billion 10 year notes was decent. The yield at 4.142% is a fraction lower than the yield at the bidding deadline.
Anarchistbear
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Looks like a taco tariff deal that will lessen inflationary fears.
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The same people who told us inflation numbers under Biden were transitory are telling us Trump's tariffs will be inflationary.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
$22 Billion of the 30-year will be auctioned tomorrow. Those results will be most interesting
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Jerome Powell cut rates right before the 2024 election when inflation was still high for one reason and one reason only, to throw Kamala Harris a lifeline. There was no economic justification, except to give the perception that the economy was doing way better than it was.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Once again, you prove that you have no idea what your talking about. The Fed cut rates 3 times in 2024.

Once in AUGUST and two more times AFTER the Election in November and December.

Nice try.


DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2034 said:

Jerome Powell cut rates right before the 2024 election when inflation was still high for one reason and one reason only, to throw Kamala Harris a lifeline. There was no economic justification, except to give the perception that the economy was doing way better than it was.


Wrong Again.
Just clueless.
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
"I call him Too Late Powell"

"Am I allowed to appoint myself to the Fed?"

"I'd do a lot better job"

- - - Donald Trump, June 18th, 2025, 6:55 am PST


DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Powell anticipates "meaningful" increase in inflation in the coming months.
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Due to rising global M2 supply?
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2034 said:

Due to rising global M2 supply?

Tariffs.

Unlike the clueless and rambling Orange Man, the FED looks forward, not backward.


Full News Conference:


https://www.youtube.com/live/zwOLwIdJYuY?si=yzeYoOYyXI6LFNx7






DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Retail Sales FELL 0.9% in May from a month earlier.

Industrial production fell by 0.2%
More than expected.

Sad really.
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags said:

Retail Sales FELL 0.9% in May from a month earlier.

Industrial production fell by 0.2%
More than expected.

Sad really.



Jerome Powell says the economy is in a solid position. How many middle-aged white guys do you know, named Jerome?

Shocker.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2034 said:

DiabloWags said:

Re
Jerome Powell says the economy is in a solid position. How many middle-aged white guys do you know, named Jerome?

Shocker.

Oh, so now you're a big fan of Jerry Powell?
Does the Orange Man know?

I thought your boy repeatedly called him a loser for not lowering rates.

Got ya down for NOT lowering interest rates and being data dependent like Jerry.
Thanks for clarifying.


DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
College grad unemployment rate at a 25 year high.
7%
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Fed Gov. Chris Waller advocating for Rate Cuts starting in July.

Sees weakness in the labor market and believes any inflation uptick from tariffs later this year will be minor and a one time "blip".

Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?



Index description

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is constructed using weighted historical standard deviations of surprises (difference between actual releases and Bloomberg surveys) different macroeconomic indicators, where the weights depend on the announcement's effect on the foreign exchange markets. With a Index over 0, its economic performance generally beats market expectations. With a Index below 0, its economic conditions are generally worse than expected. Surprise index readings climb up as economy recovers but declines fast as economy declines.

USA: Citigroup Economic Surprise Index
bear2034
How long do you want to ignore this user?
tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
bear2034 said:


but the fed can't possibly lower interest rates because those evil tariffs…
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The FED looks ahead, not behind.
Inflationary expectations are HIGHER. not lower.
Thats why rates are still the same.

If the bond market thought that inflation was under control, then why is the 10 year yield still up at 4.4% ?
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
The LEI has fallen by 2.7% in the six-month period ending May 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.4% contraction over the previous six months.

US Leading Indicators
Friday's report:

https://share.google/YfuZsBzBYHBrIEZfS
tequila4kapp
How long do you want to ignore this user?
DiabloWags said:

The FED looks ahead, not behind.
Inflationary expectations are HIGHER. not lower.
Thats why rates are still the same.

If the bond market thought that inflation was under control, then why is the 10 year yield still up at 4.4% ?

right, but their look ahead has warned of inflation from tariffs for 4 months. They've been wrong; inflation is down. Perhaps their modeling tools are not equipped to handle this new tariff regime.
DiabloWags
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Not true at all.

I think that you've misinterpreted what Powell has been saying.
Tariff laden shipments are just hitting U.S. shores.
This is just the beginning.

Many retailers are only NOW replacing pre-tariff inventory.
"We do expect to see more of that over the course of the summer," says Powell.

 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.