sycasey said:

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bear2034 said:

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RECESSION CANCELLED?

The odds of a US recession this year have fallen to just 39%.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 13, 2025

How can you have a recession when unemployment is down? There never was going to be recession was there?

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Trump went back on some of his worst ideas so people are less worried about it.

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Are you implying that people are accepting Trump's scaled down version of tariffs?

one thing I find fascinating about Trump is all the ways his not traditional Republican stances should appeal to Ds and repulse Republicans, but rarely does.

The 2 Dolls Gaffe is the antithesis of Gordon Gecko's "greed is good" creed and yet another example of this dynamic.

Greed is only good for the Trumps.

bear2034 said:

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sycasey said:

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bear2034 said:

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RECESSION CANCELLED?

The odds of a US recession this year have fallen to just 39%.

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) May 13, 2025

How can you have a recession when unemployment is down? There never was going to be recession was there?

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Trump went back on some of his worst ideas so people are less worried about it.

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Are you implying that people are accepting Trump's scaled down version of tariffs?

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Not sure if a majority is accepting of them, but the opposition is lessened if the tariffs are scaled down, yes.

Of course, all of this could also very quickly get worse for him if prices start going up.

DiabloWags said:

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In case people havent figured this out yet, Trump's 2 Doll Gaffe is the admission that suppressing domestic consumption is the first, essential step toward whatever manufacturing renaissance Trump thinks tariffs could stir in the U.S.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-truth-behind-trumps-two-dolls-gaffe-economy-trade-8608f95b?st=VXkknz

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Trump is trying to set a good example for the American consumers by only getting 1 gold plated luxury palace in the sky 747 from Qatar instead of 5 or 6.

"The trade deficit Mr. Trump detests arises in large part because Americans have discovered we can use our reserve-currency status to feed our consumption addiction with cheap borrowing, including from abroad. Mr. Trump habitually describes that situation as a "rip-off," but it becomes hard to discern who is ripping off whom. Perhaps Chinese policies boost exports to rob us of manufacturing jobs. Or perhaps we trick the Chinese into beavering away in factories producing toys in exchange for IOUs issued in such enormous quantities that any rational actor long ago would have started questioning our ability or intention to repay.

No matter, the key point is that this arrangement is politically popular in America, and understandably so. Investment is hard, requiring a conscious deferral of present comforts in hope of future gain. Consumption is a lot more fun. When Mr. Trump and his circle of protectionist advisers complain that China, Japan or Germany is exporting "surplus production" to the U.S., what we're really importing from those places is their self-discipline, whether cultural (Japan and Germany) or imposed by authoritarian regime (China)."

- Joseph Sternberg

MORE MAGA!

SCOTUS insulates the Fed Chairman from being fired by Chump

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/supreme-court-federal-reserve-trump.html

DiabloWags said:

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SCOTUS insulates the Fed Chairman from being fired by Chump

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/supreme-court-federal-reserve-trump.html

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Yes this corrupt, activist, Republican Supreme Court voted to insulate it's investments by protecting the Fed from Chump but told workers to get ****ed in saying Chump can fire the NLRB and the MSPB. It's not law it's just politics and corruption.

dajo9 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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SCOTUS insulates the Fed Chairman from being fired by Chump

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/22/supreme-court-federal-reserve-trump.html

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Yes this corrupt, activist, Republican Supreme Court voted to insulate it's investments by protecting the Fed from Chump but told workers to get ****ed in saying Chump can fire the NLRB and the MSPB. It's not law it's just politics and corruption.

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You are correct.

10 year Treasury Yield at 4.60% and the 30 year at 5.16, the highest yield since October 2023.

Massive debt issuance for as far as the eye can see.
This country is so screwed.

Census Bureau data published Friday showed the biggest monthly decline in U.S. goods imports on record last month. The nearly 20% slump from March's record still left America with an overall deficit of $87.6 billion on the trade of goods, but the slower pace underscores the broader tariff uncertainty.

The April decline may also suggest that the front-running of imports, to avoid the "Liberation Day" tariffs unveiled by Trump on April 2, is coming to an end. CEOs have made it clear that they aren't willing to buy given the uncertain outlook for tariffs, and they are reluctant to raise prices in any case.

I'm not gonna buy six months or a year worth of product just to avoid tariffs that may or may not materialize in different parts of the world," Macy's CEO Tony Spring told investors earlier this week. Any price increases for the retailer as a result of new levies, he said, would be "surgical."

GAP Ceo Richard Dickson, meanwhile, cautioned that if the current schedule of 30% tariffs on China-made goods and 10% duties on imports from other parts of the world remain in place, the retailer will lose as much as $150 million this year alone. He said he isn't prepared to raise prices across the board, at least "based on what we know today."[url=https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/gap?mod=article_chiclet][/url]


In other news, bond yields declined sharply on data from the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which rose at its slowest pace in 4 years, last month to 2.5%

tequila4kapp said:

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Wages up, inflation down


CNBC's Rick Santonelli:
Personal income increased 0.8% in April "almost TRIPLE the expectations."

"They're powerful numbers up 0.6% in January, up 0.7% in February, up 0.5% last month, up 0.8% this month. This is a GREAT four-month start to any year."

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The consumer is saving more because they've cut back on spending due to mounting economic uncertainty because of the constantly changing TARIFF landscape.

Retail Sales were only +0.1% in April.
Consumer Spending rose only 0.2% in April.

"There is clear evidence that consumers are battening down the hatches," said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. "The Fed will welcome the favorable inflation reading in this report, but they are likely to interpret it as the calm before the storm."

PS. Santelli is a Trumper.

Trump pardons and commutations during his first term were 238.
He's already issued 70 just 4-months into his second term.

Trump's Pardon Czar, Alice Johnson was a former convicted felon pardoned by Trump during his first term.
Trump supporters love FELONS getting off.

The "Law & Order": President.




Trump Makes News With More Pardons And Commutations

You conveniently ignore the 1500 J6 protestors (felons) that were pardoned by Donald Chump.
The one's that he called "patriots" and who assaulted over 140 police officers.

The "Law & Order" crowd.

Did you really want them to hang Pence too?



Trump pardons some 1,500 Jan. 6 rioters, commutes 14 sentences : NPR

Do you know how to read?

Full List of Capitol Rioters Jailed So Far and the Sentences They Are Serving - Newsweek

bear2034 said:

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What crimes did they commit and how much time did they serve?

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They all pled or were convicted so I don't see this as a winning position.

Many believe they were over charged and over punished so the pardons were justified for them. It is also easy to justify it for those who were imprisoned this whole time without getting a trial. Fine, pardons for those who arguably were treated excessively.

But that still leaves people who struck LEO and were convicted of sedition (I think...I don't exactly remember, but something like that). This is serious sh*t. I shake my head over those people getting pardons.

tequila4kapp said:

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But that still leaves people who struck LEO and were convicted of sedition (I think...I don't exactly remember, but something like that). This is serious sh*t. I shake my head over those people getting pardons.

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Shake your head over these 70 pardons.

The "Law & Order" President.

Office of the Pardon Attorney | Clemency Grants by President Donald J. Trump (2025-Present)

Today's ADP National Employment Report showed the U.S. gained only 37,000 private sector jobs in May, versus 114,000 jobs expected by economists. "After a strong start to the year, hiring is losing momentum," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

The all-important nonfarm payroll report is due tomorrow.

The ISM services report showed that the largest sector of the U.S. economy contracted in May, marking the first time since June 2024. Services PMI was reported at 49.9 below April's reading of 51.6 percent and below the consensus of 52.

The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July moved up slightly from 24% to 28.7%. The odds of a September rate cut moved from 54.5% to 56.5%.

U.S. job growth slowed in May amid headwinds and tariff uncertainty.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% with an increase in 139,000 NFP jobs.

This gives the FED cover to delay resuming interest rate cuts.

US job growth slows in May; unemployment rate steady at 4.2% | Reuters

"Slowed" may be in the eye of the beholder. Yes, it's less than April but the number beat projections by 20k, the 3rd straight month of doing so. Government jobs are down. Unemployment remains in the 4-4.2% range for a year. Participation rate is down slightly. Wages are up .4% for the month and 3.9% year over year (better than inflation).

tequila4kapp said:

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"Slowed" may be in the eye of the beholder. Yes, it's less than April but the number beat projections by 20k, the 3rd straight month of doing so. Government jobs are down. Unemployment remains in the 4-4.2% range for a year. Participation rate is down slightly. Wages are up .4% for the month and 3.9% year over year (better than inflation).

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There are always revisions.

For example, job gains for March and Aprill were revised down by a combined 95,000

March's total was downgraded from 185,000 to 120,000 and April's from 177,000 to 147,000.

For some reason, you missed this.

Gosh, Trump must be doing a great job.

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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"Slowed" may be in the eye of the beholder. Yes, it's less than April but the number beat projections by 20k, the 3rd straight month of doing so. Government jobs are down. Unemployment remains in the 4-4.2% range for a year. Participation rate is down slightly. Wages are up .4% for the month and 3.9% year over year (better than inflation).

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There are always revisions.

For example, job gains for March and Aprill were revised down by a combined 95,000

March's total was downgraded from 185,000 to 120,000 and April's from 177,000 to 147,000.

For some reason, you missed this.

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You are correct, I did not go back and revisit the revised numbers for those months.

When I looked into this a few weeks ago the ratio was heavily in favor of revisions in that direction, maybe something like a ratio of 4:1. It appears that job numbers are nearly always revised down. It appears to me we have a systemic problem with the estimates formula / methodology.

The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

tequila4kapp said:

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The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

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The inflation numbers have also been problematic as of late due to staffing shortages that affect survey precision.
This has hampered the government's ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month's inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.

Over 7 million Americans are unemployed the most since 2017. Why it won't get better anytime soon. - MarketWatch


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/over-7-million-americans-are-unemployed-the-most-since-2017-why-it-wont-get-better-anytime-soon-781ad679

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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The participation rate, unemployment rate, wage numbers and inflation numbers tell an overarching good economic story.

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The inflation numbers have also been problematic as of late due to staffing shortages that affect survey precision.
This has hampered the government's ability to conduct a massive monthly survey.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the office that publishes the inflation rate, told outside economists this week that a hiring freeze at the agency was forcing the survey to cut back on the number of businesses where it checks prices. In last month's inflation report, which examined prices in April, government statisticians had to use a less precise method for guessing price changes more extensively than they did in the past.

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That's what happens when you let a team of amateurs take a chainsaw approach to government staffing. Services deteriorate and important numbers become less precise. Buckle up, because the damage is only just beginning to become apparent.

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oooh. so scary!

This could be scary.

The Treasury is set to sell $22 billion of 30-year government bonds on Thursday, part of its regularly scheduled borrowings. The results, though, will receive special attention because they will offer an instant readout on the scope of market demand at a time when investor appetite for 30-year US debt has soured.