The Economy

13,377 Views | 304 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by DiabloWags
DiabloWags
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Cal88 said:




That puts her portfolio at $800k roughly, so she's pretty close to being in the top 10%, and definitely in it if she's a homeowner in the 925.

You're making an overly simplistic assumption that she's in an index fund and only down 10 - 11%
That's something that Minot State or Oski would come up with in an effort to "spin" a market collapse.

She's clearly not.
DiabloWags
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68% of GDP comes from consumer spending.

The Top 10% of American's own 87% of the U.S. stock market and account for roughly
HALF of all consumer spending. The "wealth-effect" that drove consumer spending last year just got CRUSHED.

But don't worry, a MORON by the name of Kevin Hasset who is Trump's Economic Director says . . .

"I don't think you're going to see a big effect on the consumer."

oski003
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DiabloWags said:

Cal88 said:




That puts her portfolio at $800k roughly, so she's pretty close to being in the top 10%, and definitely in it if she's a homeowner in the 925.

You're making an overly simplistic assumption that she's in an index fund and only down 10 - 11%
That's something that Minot State or Oski would come up with in an effort to "spin" a market collapse.

She's clearly not.



You clearly used a bad gambling investor to exaggerate your point. Poor form.
DiabloWags
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Cal88, you need to step up your game otherwise you might make this list:

MinotStateBeav
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DiabloWags
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GONNA BE DOWN ANOTHER 1600 POINTS TOMORROW.

15-MONTHS OF GAINS TOTALLY WIPED OUT.

NEARLY $10 TRILLION DESTROYED.

MAGA FOR MORONS!

MinotStateBeav
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The stock market is not the economy.
Less than 10% of Americans own 88% of the stocks.
The people who own the media are the ones being hurt by the stock market.
DiabloWags
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THE TOP 10% OWN 87% OF THE U.S. STOCK MARKET

THE TOP 10% ACCOUNT FOR HALF OF ALL CONSUMER SPENDING.

MAGA FOR MORONS!

DiabloWags
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JP Morgan chief economist Michael Feroli forecasted a recession caused by Trump's tariffs and an unemployment rate that is pushed over 5% in the second half of 2025 in a note to the firm's clients obtained by Yahoo Finance.

"We now expect real GDP (gross domestic product) to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote Friday.

MAGA FOR MORONS!
MinotStateBeav
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DiabloWags said:

JP Morgan chief economist Michael Feroli forecasted a recession caused by Trump's tariffs and an unemployment rate that is pushed over 5% in the second half of 2025 in a note to the firm's clients obtained by Yahoo Finance.

"We now expect real GDP (gross domestic product) to contract under the weight of the tariffs," Feroli wrote Friday.

I'M A MORON!

Gee I guess all these people are going to move from the USA then and take their currency and switch it to Euros then! I mean, if I thought a nation would economically collapse, I'd run for them thar hills.
DiabloWags
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This might just be the largest tax increase in modern U.S. history.

The tariffs announced last week amounted to a tax increase equal to 2.4% of U.S. GDP, on par with the 1968 tax hike, which equalled 2.6% of GDP.

MAGA FOR MORONS!
Cal88
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DiabloWags said:

Cal88, you need to step up your game otherwise you might make this list:



I was pretty offended by being left out of the top 5.
DiabloWags
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I'll put you at #6
You're welcome!

MBGA!



DiabloWags
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Larry Summers:

"This is the biggest self-inflicted wound we've put on our economy in history. We are increasing inflation because the prices are higher because of the tariffs. That gives people less spending power. That means fewer jobs," Summers said after Hassett's interview. "Markets are looking at all of that. And they think companies are going to be worth $5 trillion less than they thought before these tariffs started. And that's just the loss to companies. If you add in the loss to consumers, a reasonable estimate would probably be something like $30 trillion."
Eastern Oregon Bear
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MinotStateBeav said:


This chart was off by 4,000 points when movielover posted it the other day. Still is. Just a matter of 10%. No biggie, right?

LOL.
MinotStateBeav
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

MinotStateBeav said:


This chart was off by 4,000 points when movielover posted it the other day. Still is. Just a matter of 10%. No biggie, right?

LOL.
DiabloWags
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

MinotStateBeav said:


This chart was off by 4,000 points when movielover posted it the other day. Still is. Just a matter of 10%. No biggie, right?

LOL.

HAHAHAHAHAHAAAAA!

I've seen this chart posted all over Facebook by the Trumpanzees.

These people are idiots.
They really are.

Never mind that that chart was off by OVER 5600 POINTS at this morning's low.
- 13.3%
DiabloWags
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concordtom said:

Someone paying attention said to short copper.
I put some tickets in my list.
I just looked at COPP.
WOW.

It was me.
This trade happened even faster than I thought.

Was trading $5.13 when I recommended the short.
May Copper currently trading $4.24 and was as low as $4.03

Currently 89 cents x $250 = $22,250 per contract.

$27,250 at the low print.

Ka-Ching!


concordtom
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Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Boomerish?
Im stating FACTS.

Bessent admits that he wasnt even part of the "inner circle" that created these tariffs.

He also claimed that China's Deep Seek AI is what caused the market collapse. That announcement was made back in JANUARY.

Why you give him any credibility at all speaks volumes.

It makes you look terribly foolish.
Almost as ignorant as that movie clown character.

He was also partners with Soros in the 90's.
Soros bad.
Musk good.


The video of Bessent I posted above addressed the fact that among Americans the top 10% own 88% of the stock market, while the bottom half owns nothing and is indebted. And the fact that the top 10% as you have stated represents 68% of consumption is even more troubling.

You grew up at a time where a house cost $50k and tuition at Cal was a few hundred dollars per quarter. Since then the middle class has been gutted.


Once again, I don't think the tariff policy has been properly implemented, but at least I recognize that the policy makers seem to acknowledge that there is a fundamental problem in the economy today.


Except the problems you state are not solved by raising tariffs.

I repeat again what nobody wants to hear (as in, nobody in America):

1. Wage structure is too high to support manufacturing here.
2. Tax structure supports wealth concentration at the top.

You would think poor people would vote for higher taxes at the extremes but they do not understand what or whom they are voting for (populism and party over policy and people) AND "dark money" that supports special interests and loopholes prevail.
In other words, our system is broken.
USA going down.

Nobody wants to hear that, so it's out of the ashes that the phoenix must rise.
And that's a lengthy cycle.
DiabloWags
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Make no mistake, the Trump Administration just enacted the largest TAX INCREASE in modern U.S. history.

2.4% of GDP

Haven't seen this since 1968.
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

68% of GDP comes from consumer spending.

The Top 10% of American's own 87% of the U.S. stock market and account for roughly
HALF of all consumer spending. The "wealth-effect" that drove consumer spending last year just got CRUSHED.

But don't worry, a MORON by the name of Kevin Hasset who is Trump's Economic Director says . . .

"I don't think you're going to see a big effect on the consumer."




I saw that, too, and I thought he was ridiculous.
Just go ahead and tell all the people something they want to hear. They're such ****ing liars.

ChatGPT

As of recent data, approximately **15% to 20%** of American consumption is produced outside of the United States.


Therefore, if a 10% global tariff is applied to 20% of consumption, that would equate to 2% inflation. But, I believe 10% global was the minimum, not the average tariff of Trump applied. We would have to look at more realistic numbers, but I bet it is much higher than 2%. And whenever ever have we had such a thing hit all at once?
Combine with the retaliations? This is a massive meteor, strike on the economy, the global economy.

Trump is an idiot, and he is misleading his followers, and his minions know it, but they are afraid to do anything about it.
DiabloWags
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And then Howard Lutnick said this over the weekend on Face The Nation:

"You said robots on other networks," Brennan pressed on. "You said that to FOX."

Lutnick responded with utter gibberish.

"The armies of millions of people- well, remember, the army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little- little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America," he said. "It's going to be automated and great Americans- the tradecraft of America, is going to fix them, is going to work on them."

concordtom
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I had just met with three trader colleagues at Canner Fitzgerald before 911. We used to trade with them and I knew two of them for several years. One other guy joined on the most recent trip and I had just met him. This is to say I followed Howard, Lutnick after 911.

Obviously, what he went through was unprecedented and it is very hard to state how somebody's response should be. That said, he did receive a certain amount of criticism for what appeared to be acting out in front of the camera. I didn't support it (the criticism him of him) at that time Because the whole experience was astonishing. But it does make me reconsider those interviews he gave, watching him speak poppycock now.
concordtom
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MinotStateBeav said:




Buddy, your meme sucks!
The Dow is at 37k.

Second, I've never seen a president single-handedly plunge the economy with one fell swoop of a policy decision.

And this move downward is just getting started.
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

This might just be the largest tax increase in modern U.S. history.

The tariffs announced last week amounted to a tax increase equal to 2.4% of U.S. GDP, on par with the 1968 tax hike, which equalled 2.6% of GDP.

MAGA FOR MORONS!



It's a regressive tax increase. Affects the lower classes more as a percentage of their wealth.
Not good for the social strata.
The poor get poorer. Social divisions increase. Crime increases.

Voters are stupid.
concordtom
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Cal88 said:

DiabloWags said:

Cal88, you need to step up your game otherwise you might make this list:



I was pretty offended by being left out of the top 5.


You're pretty good at not engaging in back and forth insults. I have to commend you.
concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

concordtom said:

Someone paying attention said to short copper.
I put some tickets in my list.
I just looked at COPP.
WOW.

It was me.



Uh, yeah, that's why I directed my post to You.
DiabloWags
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concordtom said:

DiabloWags said:

concordtom said:

Someone paying attention said to short copper.
I put some tickets in my list.
I just looked at COPP.
WOW.

It was me.



Uh, yeah, that's why I directed my post to You.

And copper COLLAPSED.
Did you make money?

$25,000 on one contract

concordtom
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DiabloWags said:

concordtom said:

DiabloWags said:

concordtom said:

Someone paying attention said to short copper.
I put some tickets in my list.
I just looked at COPP.
WOW.

It was me.



Uh, yeah, that's why I directed my post to You.

And copper COLLAPSED.
Did you make money?

$25,000 on one contract




No. I added a ticker to my watchlist.

I dare say, I've never seen a better short term call in my e tire life!!
DiabloWags
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concordtom said:

DiabloWags said:

concordtom said:

DiabloWags said:

concordtom said:

Someone paying attention said to short copper.
I put some tickets in my list.
I just looked at COPP.
WOW.

It was me.



Uh, yeah, that's why I directed my post to You.

And copper COLLAPSED.
Did you make money?

$25,000 on one contract




No. I added a ticker to my watchlist.

I dare say, I've never seen a better short term call in my e tire life!!

FCX would have been the equity proxy for copper for those without a futures account.

concordtom
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It's commonly understood to never take advice from anyone you meet on a chat board, but that copper call will be one I remember. Put the feather in your cap. That was like 3 days and boom.
bear2034
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Trump is making "the rich" poorer in the short term. So much for that narrative for the time being.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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bear2034 said:

Trump is making "the rich" poorer in the short term. So much for that narrative for the time being.
You misspelled "everyone".
bear2034
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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

bear2034 said:

Trump is making "the rich" poorer in the short term. So much for that narrative for the time being.
You misspelled "everyone".

Maybe 60%.
Eastern Oregon Bear
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MAGA's red wave has arrived.




 
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