Green Day

Closing numbers:

DOW - 349
SPX: - 12
NAZ: + 15

GOLD: - 35

10 YEAR: _+0.17 to 4.155%

VTI: - 0.81

VTI 0.3% down during reading hours but up 0.6% after hours. Green overall.

The Black Monday that wasn't. Inverse Jim Cramer strikes again.

We used to call that "unch".
I can hear Jeff saying it.

bear2034 said:

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The Black Monday that wasn't. Inverse Jim Cramer strikes again.

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Yeah! Let's ignore Black Week too! That's so last week.

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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When MAGA MORONS claim that the stock market is only down 12% (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) and can't imagine how someone that is NOT in the Top 10% could be down $85,000 from just 30 days ago.

They start yapping about how someone would have to have roughly $800,000 invested in order to be down $85,000.

lol

Try again folks.

There are some truly remarkably ignorant people here.
And that's being kind.

Did they really go to CAL?
I doubt it.

Nvidia



Salesforce



Google

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These charts don't represent 30 days. Please try to not be such an egotistical misleading liar, and that's being kind. Did you sell the billion dollars you have in EXAS stock before you shorted the market to make another billion dollars? If your middle class hair stylist bought EXAS when you told everyone that you owned a billion dollars of it ($150 pps), I can see their portfolio down a ton since it is at $40 now. When am I going to see the Wags basketball practice facility?

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You think looking at just the last 30 days is any better?

MinotStateBeav said:

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DiabloWags said:

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Trump rumored to accept a 90 day pause according to Kevin Hassett, except for China.

Looks like the Orange Buffoon said "ouch" with the markets down 20% and the upcoming headlines about entering a Bear Market.

No confirmation of Hassett's quote.

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If the market is down 20ish then that was literally Trumps goal.

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It's a moronic goal. One that will no doubt greatly improve your life, LOL.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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When MAGA MORONS claim that the stock market is only down 12% (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) and can't imagine how someone that is NOT in the Top 10% could be down $85,000 from just 30 days ago.

They start yapping about how someone would have to have roughly $800,000 invested in order to be down $85,000.

lol

Try again folks.

There are some truly remarkably ignorant people here.
And that's being kind.

Did they really go to CAL?
I doubt it.

Nvidia



Salesforce



Google

---

These charts don't represent 30 days. Please try to not be such an egotistical misleading liar, and that's being kind. Did you sell the billion dollars you have in EXAS stock before you shorted the market to make another billion dollars? If your middle class hair stylist bought EXAS when you told everyone that you owned a billion dollars of it ($150 pps), I can see their portfolio down a ton since it is at $40 now. When am I going to see the Wags basketball practice facility?

---

You think looking at just the last 30 days is any better?

---

Definitely, as it relates to his middle class hairdresser losing 85k in 30 days.

concordtom said:

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DiabloWags said:

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concordtom said:

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Summary:

Dovish-leaning (favoring lower rates): Jefferson, Cook, Kugler
Centrist or mixed: Powell, Barr
Hawkish-leaning (favoring higher rates): Waller, Bowman

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The FED won't be leading the way anytime soon to cutting rates.
The market will lead them.

The FED will remain data dependent and "lag" because the data lags.
They won't be making any overt policy changes until the dust settles on all of this.

---

Except Trump was often talking about in his first term how he wanted to chase folks off and replace them.
Thus, I was inquiring about the composition and see if old people would be retiring.
I see quite the contrary.

You know Trump wants to fire everyone and install puppets who just do whatever he says.

---

It doesn't surprise me one bit that Trump left unfilled FED vacancies for Trump to fill. There were hundreds of high level government vacancies during Trump's first term because he couldn't be arsed to fill them. Easier to just appoint acting administrators that didn't have a confirmation process. My agency was under an acting administrator for nearly Trump's entire first term. We have one now. Fortunately, Trump couldn't appoint acting FED governors.

Quote:

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Definitely, as it relates to his middle class hairdresser losing 85k in 30 days.

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Usually he is on the giving side, but last week he took a haircut.

oski003 said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

When MAGA MORONS claim that the stock market is only down 12% (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) and can't imagine how someone that is NOT in the Top 10% could be down $85,000 from just 30 days ago.

They start yapping about how someone would have to have roughly $800,000 invested in order to be down $85,000.

lol

Try again folks.

There are some truly remarkably ignorant people here.
And that's being kind.

Did they really go to CAL?
I doubt it.

Nvidia



Salesforce



Google

---

These charts don't represent 30 days. Please try to not be such an egotistical misleading liar, and that's being kind. Did you sell the billion dollars you have in EXAS stock before you shorted the market to make another billion dollars? If your middle class hair stylist bought EXAS when you told everyone that you owned a billion dollars of it ($150 pps), I can see their portfolio down a ton since it is at $40 now. When am I going to see the Wags basketball practice facility?

---

You think looking at just the last 30 days is any better?

---

Definitely, as it relates to his middle class hairdresser losing 85k in 30 days.

---

I'll mark you down as obsessing emotionally over small weeds and not seeing the forest. You shouldn't take all the small stuff around here so seriously. It's not a good look. Even your buddies aren't starring these posts. Grow a thicker skin.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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oski003 said:

---

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

---

oski003 said:

---

DiabloWags said:

---

When MAGA MORONS claim that the stock market is only down 12% (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) and can't imagine how someone that is NOT in the Top 10% could be down $85,000 from just 30 days ago.

They start yapping about how someone would have to have roughly $800,000 invested in order to be down $85,000.

lol

Try again folks.

There are some truly remarkably ignorant people here.
And that's being kind.

Did they really go to CAL?
I doubt it.

Nvidia



Salesforce



Google

---

These charts don't represent 30 days. Please try to not be such an egotistical misleading liar, and that's being kind. Did you sell the billion dollars you have in EXAS stock before you shorted the market to make another billion dollars? If your middle class hair stylist bought EXAS when you told everyone that you owned a billion dollars of it ($150 pps), I can see their portfolio down a ton since it is at $40 now. When am I going to see the Wags basketball practice facility?

---

You think looking at just the last 30 days is any better?

---

Definitely, as it relates to his middle class hairdresser losing 85k in 30 days.

---

I'll mark you down as obsessing emotionally over small weeds and not seeing the forest. You shouldn't take all the small stuff around here so seriously. It's not a good look. Even your buddies aren't starring these posts. Grow a thicker skin.

---

If someone posts something incorrect that I disagree with, I will challenge them on it, even if they spam their crap 500 times. You are out of your element, Donnie.

Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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bear2034 said:

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The Black Monday that wasn't. Inverse Jim Cramer strikes again.

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Yeah! Let's ignore Black Week too! That's so last week.

---

Kind of feels like that fake Twitter "report" of the tariffs being paused prevented a really bad day today. People still hoping it won't happen, despite the Trump admin consistently saying that it will all continue and there will be no negotiations.

The piper will have to be paid sooner or later.

Up nearly 2% now after hours. Hopefully, the complete liberal meltdown is unwarranted.

Market is up 3% today and crickets on BI. Fingers crossed, but folks not spamming BI with doom and gloom is a positive.

sycasey said:

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Eastern Oregon Bear said:

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Yeah! Let's ignore Black Week too! That's so last week.

---

Kind of feels like that fake Twitter "report" of the tariffs being paused prevented a really bad day today. People still hoping it won't happen, despite the Trump admin consistently saying that it will all continue and there will be no negotiations.

The piper will have to be paid sooner or later.

---

There are some really dumb people posting here doing nothing but "parroting" the idiotic tweets they read.
Just ask Elon.

"Peter ******o"
"Navarro is truly a moron.
"Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks"

But you'll never ever see a post by the MAGA morons here criticizing the Administration like Elon is.


Elon Musk rips 'moron' Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro

Elon Musk Breaks Rank, Rages Against Donald Trump's Tariffs

Trumpanzees running around spewing a bogus narrative about how the White House is "engineering" a Recession so that the debt can be re-financed at a lower rate.

Too Freaking Funny!

$12 Trillion of wealth in the U.S. stock market disappears and yet the yield on the 10-year is at 4.25%
Gee, I wonder why?

Who holds the most Treasuries:

Japan
China
UK
Canada
France

Gee, anyone think they might be selling?

Foreigners only own $24 Trillion in U.S. assets.
Duh.

The market is up 1300 as I type this (still down from X days ago, obviously). Is the world still coming to an end?

tequila4kapp said:

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The market is up 1300 as I type this (still down from X days ago, obviously). Is the world still coming to an end?

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That depends.
How much of your net worth is exposed to the U.S, stock market?

You can tell that the Movie Lovers and Bear2034's have zero money in the market.
Not even a 401k.

They couldn't care any less.

I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.

Trump has shown again that he's an idiot and doesn't care. That lack of confidence has me staying away.

tequila4kapp said:

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The market is up 1300 as I type this (still down from X days ago, obviously). Is the world still coming to an end?

---

Funny to me that you chime in here. I actually searched your username last night for recent posts because I noticed you were absent during the down days. But you show up on the up day.

I was glad to see you have been posting, are alive, just elsewhere.

concordtom said:

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I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.
***
I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.
***

---

That's fair. I trend toward being in the other camp, that we are in a period of substantial re-setting of the system but the fundamentals are strong and the economic system is so dynamic that the market will stabilize, if not thrive. It's not a time to panic; stick with investor 101 basics.

DiabloWags said:

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Trumpanzees running around spewing a bogus narrative about how the White House is "engineering" a Recession so that the debt can be re-financed at a lower rate.

Too Freaking Funny!

$12 Trillion of wealth in the U.S. stock market disappears and yet the yield on the 10-year is at 4.25%
Gee, I wonder why?

Who holds the most Treasuries:

Japan
China
UK
Canada
France

Gee, anyone think they might be selling?

Foreigners only own $24 Trillion in U.S. assets.
Duh.

---

Actually
Don't us citizens and intergovernmental hold most treasury debt?

Well, you see the game plan, don't you? Trump is like the arsonist contractor that burns the house down and then rebuilds it proclaiming it is BIGGER AND BETTER THAN ANY BURNED DOWN HOUSE THAT HAS EVER BEEN REBUILT IN THE HISTORY OF BURNED DOWN AND REBUILT HOUSES!

tequila4kapp said:

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concordtom said:

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I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.
***
I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.
***

---

That's fair. I trend toward being in the other camp, that we are in a period of substantial re-setting of the system but the fundamentals are strong and the economic system is so dynamic that the market will stabilize, if not thrive. It's not a time to panic; stick with investor 101 basics.

---

How old are you?
Have you ever been through an actual Bear Market that isn't over in two months?

Trump claims that the economy was horrible and the "patient required major surgery".
He literally claimed that it was a Fake Economy.

But you're saying that it's strong?
Care to clarify?

concordtom said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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The market is up 1300 as I type this (still down from X days ago, obviously). Is the world still coming to an end?

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Funny to me that you chime in here. I actually searched your username last night for recent posts because I noticed you were absent during the down days. But you show up on the up day.

I was glad to see you have been posting, are alive, just elsewhere.

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I intermittently need to take mental health breaks away from OT in general or certain topics. Plus, in this case there was nothing to argue. The market was doing what it was doing. People on each side were having predictable reactions. My entry today was meant to be in the spirit of "it's gonna be okay." Maybe I shouldn't have even done that…

tequila4kapp said:

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concordtom said:

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I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.
***
I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.
***

---

That's fair. I trend toward being in the other camp, that we are in a period of substantial re-setting of the system but the fundamentals are strong and the economic system is so dynamic that the market will stabilize, if not thrive. It's not a time to panic; stick with investor 101 basics.

---

Hey, why did you delete the final sentence of my post and replace it with **** ?

It said: Trump has shown again that he's an idiot and doesn't care. That lack of confidence has me staying away.

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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concordtom said:

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I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.
***
I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.
***

---

That's fair. I trend toward being in the other camp, that we are in a period of substantial re-setting of the system but the fundamentals are strong and the economic system is so dynamic that the market will stabilize, if not thrive. It's not a time to panic; stick with investor 101 basics.

---

How old are you?
Have you ever been through an actual Bear Market that isn't over in two months?

Trump claims that the economy was horrible and the "patient required major surgery".
He literally claimed that it was a Fake Economy.

But you're saying that it's strong?
Care to clarify?

---

Unemployment is stable. Consumer spending is up (though confidence is down). Hours worked (participation) is up. Manufacturing spending is up but inventories are stable, meaning the spending was not about beating the tariffs. Jobs created beat expectations by a lot, and we are creating more private sector jobs than govt jobs for the first time in a while.

We have the strongest / biggest economy in the world. Even with Trump's policies we still have an immense role in the world's security. Combined…most countries will seek a deal over a trade war.

My opinion…there will be more instability but it will wane, and when it does we are still the worlds biggest/best economy.

Yes, intergovernmental agencies (Social Security Trust Fund) hold a ton of U.S. Treasuries.
But foreigners hold $7.9 Trillion and they can move the Treasury market.
That's my point.

concordtom said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

---

concordtom said:

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I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.
***
I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.
***

---

That's fair. I trend toward being in the other camp, that we are in a period of substantial re-setting of the system but the fundamentals are strong and the economic system is so dynamic that the market will stabilize, if not thrive. It's not a time to panic; stick with investor 101 basics.

---

Hey, why did you delete the final sentence of my post and replace it with **** ?

It said: Trump has shown again that he's an idiot and doesn't care. That lack of confidence has me staying away.

---

there was nothing nefarious. I was trying to show that I was responding to the specific stuff I left in. I have figured out how to bold text from my phone so I do it that way. That's all.

tequila4kapp said:

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Unemployment is stable. Consumer spending is up (though confidence is down). Hours worked (participation) is up. Manufacturing spending is up but inventories are stable, meaning the spending was not about beating the tariffs. Jobs created beat expectations by a lot, and we are creating more private sector jobs than govt jobs for the first time in a while.

We have the strongest / biggest economy in the world. Even with Trump's policies we still have an immense role in the world's security. Combined…most countries will seek a deal over a trade war.

My opinion…there will be more instability but it will wane, and when it does we are still the worlds biggest/best economy.

---

Thanks for the reply.

Unfortunately, the data that you cite is all in the "rearview" mirror.
That's why Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have dramatically raised the probability of a Recession.
(45% and 60%)

tequila4kapp said:

---

We have the strongest / biggest economy in the world. Even with Trump's policies we still have an immense role in the world's security. Combined…most countries will seek a deal over a trade war.

My opinion…there will be more instability but it will wane, and when it does we are still the worlds biggest/best economy.

---

I would tend to agree.

But people like Peter Navarro is a complete moron and he's sold Trump on how "great" tariffs are.
He feeds into Trump's thinking that William McKinley's policies made America wealthy.
That's a big problem.

What always blows me away is how people VOTE AGAINST themselves not just once, but twice.

China is going to crush the American farmer a second time by banning Ag purchases.
That's $27 Billion of annual purchases that the U.S. farmer just lost out on and has to seek other markets.

These are the people that predominantly voted for Trump and love wearing those silly red hats.
And yet they just voted to go Bankrupt again.

I guess Congress will have to spend another $23 Billion on a "bail-out" for them.
So much for Republicans being against "bail outs"

Hypocrites.

A bailout for farmers caught in Trump's trade war is already being discussed. 'If we don't get something, it will be quite a disaster'

The first rally always fails.
A relatively easy short. Just a Bear Market "bounce".

100 points off the highs

DiabloWags said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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Unemployment is stable. Consumer spending is up (though confidence is down). Hours worked (participation) is up. Manufacturing spending is up but inventories are stable, meaning the spending was not about beating the tariffs. Jobs created beat expectations by a lot, and we are creating more private sector jobs than govt jobs for the first time in a while.

We have the strongest / biggest economy in the world. Even with Trump's policies we still have an immense role in the world's security. Combined…most countries will seek a deal over a trade war.

My opinion…there will be more instability but it will wane, and when it does we are still the worlds biggest/best economy.

---

Thanks for the reply.

Unfortunately, the data that you cite is all in the "rearview" mirror.
That's why Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan have dramatically raised the probability of a Recession.
(45% and 60%)

---

Another belief / theory…80% of stocks are owned by people 55 and over. Most people in that zone are predisposed toward being reactionary to preserve their nest egg and save their retirement. @22% of stocks are owned by institutions that manage funds. They are incentivized to manage short term over long term. Combined, there are some structural things that make the market especially reactive to negative news. Observations about what the admin is doing can be valid but I think it's also true that the market isn't - by itself - the best measure of economic health. So…be smart, be patient, be prudent, but let the other guy panic.