How old are you and how much of your net-liquid worth is exposed to the U.S. financial markets?

DiabloWags said:

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How old are you and how much of your net-liquid worth is exposed to the U.S. financial markets?

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Inside 5 years of early retirement. I am excessively exposed with my 401k choices - stupid, putting my money where my mouth is or both. But we have other sources of retirement funding besides 401k so I'm diversified more generally (if that makes sense).

One could argue it's easy for me to have my beliefs because I (think) am okay. Or perhaps I'm okay because of my investment choices that put me where I am. Or maybe it all goes to hell and I'll be living out of a camper. TBD.

tequila4kapp said:

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Another belief / theory…80% of stocks are owned by people 55 and over. Most people in that zone are predisposed toward being reactionary to preserve their nest egg and save their retirement. @22% of stocks are owned by institutions that manage funds. They are incentivized to manage short term over long term. Combined, there are some structural things that make the market especially reactive to negative news. Observations about what the admin is doing can be valid but I think it's also true that the market isn't - by itself - the best measure of economic health. So…be smart, be patient, be prudent, but let the other guy panic.

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The Top 10% of American's own 87% of the U.S. stock market.
They also happen to account for roughly HALF of all consumer spending.
And 68% of consumer spending makes up GDP.

While you may think that the market is being "irrational" and your investment strategy comes down to not "panicking" and "staying the course" . . . the real question is what kind of valuation do you see the S&P at?

The 2026 EPS number for the S&P 500 is $269
This will probably be subjected to cuts due to fears of slower growth from the tariffs.
For example, earnings get cut by 20 - 30% during a Recession.

But let's be very generous and assume that $269 is a valid number for the purpose of putting a multiple on the S&P and coming up with a price target.

If you believe that the S&P should be at 18x earnings, you get 4,842
That means the market is going lower.

Most Bear Markets end with a multiple of between 14 - 16x earnings.
16x would get you 4,304.

The reason why I have asked you how old you are is because most of the people that I find posting on social media are rather young and have never experienced an actual Bear Market in terms of "duration" and not just in terms of price.

The average event driven and cyclical Bear Market experiences a decline of roughly 30%.
That would target 4,300.

That's still a sizeable decline from here if that happens.

The question then becomes will this be just an "event" driven Bear Market that is over in about 8 months or a cyclical one that goes on for 2 years.

I would suggest that the market is clearly HOPING for an "event" driven Bear Market.

But HOPE is not an investment strategy.

I don't mean to "scare" people but this chart is indeed scary.
It's not like this market was "cheap" to begin with.

The Trump "parrots" here have no clue.
Cheerleading today's bounce is sheer stupidity.

I'm no market expert, but it does seem like it's in kind of a holding pattern as people wait to see if the big tariffs actually happen tomorrow. Trump team has muddied the waters enough that people aren't sure.

Where did all of the Trump "cheerleaders" like Oski go?

Where did they go?

Oooops!

743 points off the high of the day.

MAGA for MORONS!

tequila4kapp said:

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concordtom said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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concordtom said:

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I awake to the market bouncing and news of tariff deals.
***
I have said that the market is going to continue to fall and I'm sticking with that.
***

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That's fair. I trend toward being in the other camp, that we are in a period of substantial re-setting of the system but the fundamentals are strong and the economic system is so dynamic that the market will stabilize, if not thrive. It's not a time to panic; stick with investor 101 basics.

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Hey, why did you delete the final sentence of my post and replace it with **** ?

It said: Trump has shown again that he's an idiot and doesn't care. That lack of confidence has me staying away.

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there was nothing nefarious. I was trying to show that I was responding to the specific stuff I left in. I have figured out how to bold text from my phone so I do it that way. That's all.

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Use the bracket where the 1 is to open the bold command.
Then type the letter b.
Then use the closing bracket where the number 2 is.

That opens you bold command.

At the end of your bolded text you need to enter a closing bold command and that is accomplished by entering a slash after the opening bracket, which is nearly same as before. it's the alt-1 bracket, alt s slash, letter B, and alt-2 bracket.


Try it.

There are common commands that you can put between the brackets (which are always opening commands and closing commands). They are:

B for bold
I for italics
Quote for putting entire sections in a quotation paragraph.
IMG is also a useful one for certain jpg url addresses that don't work in their own, like those that start with encrypted.

I'm going to type something in bold so you can see how it works in the finished product and in typing. And if you hit reply with my text in the quotation attached, you'll see the formatting I'm talking about.

That which is inside the brackets is affected.
That which is inside the brackets is affected.
That which is inside the brackets is affected.

Quote:

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Now you can create better looking posts on BI right from your phone.

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Have fun!

DiabloWags said:

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Where did all of the Trump "cheerleaders" like Oski go?

Where did they go?

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Must I post 40 times a day to get your approval or will you whine to the mods about me replying to everyone of your posts? Please make up your mind.

I can't imagine what Oski just said after showing everyone how big a of a "cheerleader" he is.

He has no clue how the stock market works.
Especially in a Bear Market.

I put him on ignore.

DiabloWags said:

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I can't imagine what Oski just said after showing everyone how big a of a "cheerleader" he is.

He has no clue how the stock market works.
Especially in a Bear Market.

I put him on ignore.

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To be clear, I do know how the stock market works. It was down -.3% today and is down about 1% today. You were calling down 5% yesterday and you were wrong, but the drop has been leveling. There is a lot of uncertainty right now about the Tarriffs. As I stated before, Trump is going to heavy on them which is spooking the market. On the flip side, you sound like a day trading teenager shorting with their allowance and trying to freak everyone out.

Do yourself a favor and don't listen to the "cheerleaders" who are rookies.

DiabloWags said:

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Do yourself a favor and don't listen to the "cheerleaders" who are rookies.

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You certainly mention my name often. It is cute how you pretend to ignore me, and, yes, I am cheering for the market to recover. I did short VTI from 295 to 270. I should have held it longer. I don't have any long term holds in my trading account, and my 401k has been conservative for the last few months. I am not ready yet to get more aggressive. As I said earlier, the US needs to bring some manufacturing back. We shouldn't rely on cheap labor from third world countries to make everything.

TRUMP IS SO SMART.
HE'S PLAYING 3D CHESS!

MAGA FOR MORONS!!!

Looks like my 7:30 fade the rally call was spot on.

oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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I can't imagine what Oski just said after showing everyone how big a of a "cheerleader" he is.

He has no clue how the stock market works.
Especially in a Bear Market.

I put him on ignore.

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To be clear, I do know how the stock market works. It was down -.3% today and is down about 1% today. You were calling down 5% yesterday and you were wrong, but the drop has been leveling. There is a lot of uncertainty right now about the Tarriffs. As I stated before, Trump is going to heavy on them which is spooking the market. On the flip side, you sound like a day trading teenager shorting with their allowance and trying to freak everyone out.

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Here's the way to play this game, since day to day moves can be fickle.

Does the S&P go
UP 10%
or
DOWN 10%
first?


What do you say?

concordtom said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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I can't imagine what Oski just said after showing everyone how big a of a "cheerleader" he is.

He has no clue how the stock market works.
Especially in a Bear Market.

I put him on ignore.

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To be clear, I do know how the stock market works. It was down -.3% today and is down about 1% today. You were calling down 5% yesterday and you were wrong, but the drop has been leveling. There is a lot of uncertainty right now about the Tarriffs. As I stated before, Trump is going to heavy on them which is spooking the market. On the flip side, you sound like a day trading teenager shorting with their allowance and trying to freak everyone out.

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Here's the way to play this game, since day to day moves can be fickle.

Does the S&P go
UP 10%
or
DOWN 10%
first?


What do you say?

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BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAAAHAHAA!

THANKS FOR THE LAUGH.

AAPL down 22% past 5 days, it will be interesting to see if Trump is going to stand firm on his 104% tariff tiff, which would further hammer Apple.

concordtom said:

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oski003 said:

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DiabloWags said:

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I can't imagine what Oski just said after showing everyone how big a of a "cheerleader" he is.

He has no clue how the stock market works.
Especially in a Bear Market.

I put him on ignore.

---

To be clear, I do know how the stock market works. It was down -.3% today and is down about 1% today. You were calling down 5% yesterday and you were wrong, but the drop has been leveling. There is a lot of uncertainty right now about the Tarriffs. As I stated before, Trump is going to heavy on them which is spooking the market. On the flip side, you sound like a day trading teenager shorting with their allowance and trying to freak everyone out.

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Here's the way to play this game, since day to day moves can be fickle.

Does the S&P go
UP 10%
or
DOWN 10%
first?


What do you say?

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At this point, it is more likely to go down 10% then up 10%.

Can't wait for all of those U.S. crop exports to be BANNED tonight at midnight.

All of those Farmers that voted for the Orange Crap Stain a second time didn't learn their lesson the first time.

They just lost $27 Billion in annual purchases.

I love it when people vote against themselves.

SO MUCH WINNING!!!

Cal88 said:

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AAPL down 22% past 5 days, it will be interesting to see if Trump is going to stand firm on his 104% tariff tiff, which would further hammer Apple.

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The problem is, Trump is absolutely crushing whatever trust investors had in him.

He can state that they will reverse course and reset all tariffs back to Biden levels. But would market valuations go back? No. The policy would have to be enacted. And further, I am suggesting that even if they did reset to Biden levels, the US premium would not return because we now look like a clown.

So long as Trump is in charge of things, the message is clear - be wary. And that's a risk premium, not a price premium.

He keeps ratcheting up the tariff pressure on the Chinese Government, but they don't work that way.
They have a lot of pride and don't want to be perceived as being "weak" by their people.
It's pretty simple.

But Trump, who takes pride in being a master negotiator is clueless.
That's how DUMB he is.

concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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AAPL down 22% past 5 days, it will be interesting to see if Trump is going to stand firm on his 104% tariff tiff, which would further hammer Apple.

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The problem is, Trump is absolutely crushing whatever trust investors had in him.

He can state that they will reverse course and reset all tariffs back to Biden levels. But would market valuations go back? No. The policy would have to be enacted. And further, I am suggesting that even if they did reset to Biden levels, the US premium would not return because we now look like a clown.

So long as Trump is in charge of things, the message is clear - be wary. And that's a risk premium, not a price premium.

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To me that also applies to would be trade partners. Lets posit (I think a safe, political science informed assumption) that non tariff trade barriers in other countries reflect the impact of domestic politics. They likely provide concentrated benefits. Now the diffuse harm of tanking their economies by accepting these barriers likely is greater. So a lot of folks (South Korea, Japan, etc.) are going to bite the bullet and "cut a deal". But the problem is how can they believe that after doing this Trump's world is credible and hey won't come back for ANOTHER bite at the Apple? (sorry pun intended). This is really foreign policy by numbskulls and is going to end horrifically.

PS. This isn't to say that we didn't need to undertake a long and painful readjustment to a WTO-admitted China. While I think there was a solid argument to be made for admitting the data on trade adjustments is pretty compelling - the dislocations were longer, deeper, and more painful than anyone predicted because workers have a hard time retraining and reskilling. But that is a longer argument for another day and one that required a much more complicated set of trade negotiations with China.

socaltownie said:

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concordtom said:

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Cal88 said:

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AAPL down 22% past 5 days, it will be interesting to see if Trump is going to stand firm on his 104% tariff tiff, which would further hammer Apple.

---

The problem is, Trump is absolutely crushing whatever trust investors had in him.

He can state that they will reverse course and reset all tariffs back to Biden levels. But would market valuations go back? No. The policy would have to be enacted. And further, I am suggesting that even if they did reset to Biden levels, the US premium would not return because we now look like a clown.

So long as Trump is in charge of things, the message is clear - be wary. And that's a risk premium, not a price premium.

---

To me that also applies to would be trade partners. Lets posit (I think a safe, political science informed assumption) that non tariff trade barriers in other countries reflect the impact of domestic politics. They likely provide concentrated benefits. Now the diffuse harm of tanking their economies by accepting these barriers likely is greater. So a lot of folks (South Korea, Japan, etc.) are going to bite the bullet and "cut a deal". But the problem is how can they believe that after doing this Trump's world is credible and hey won't come back for ANOTHER bite at the Apple? (sorry pun intended). This is really foreign policy by numbskulls and is going to end horrifically.

PS. This isn't to say that we didn't need to undertake a long and painful readjustment to a WTO-admitted China. While I think there was a solid argument to be made for admitting the data on trade adjustments is pretty compelling - the dislocations were longer, deeper, and more painful than anyone predicted because workers have a hard time retraining and reskilling. But that is a longer argument for another day and one that required a much more complicated set of trade negotiations with China.

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Penny for your thoughts:

Anarchistbear said:

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Cal88 said:

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AAPL down 22% past 5 days, it will be interesting to see if Trump is going to stand firm on his 104% tariff tiff, which would further hammer Apple.

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Isn't that why Tim Cook paid the inauguration premiums?

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Yes, of course Trump holds all the cards, right?
And he's a scammer.

Ooops! Tim Cook and the tech bros should have put more money behind an alternate candidate.

concordtom said:

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DiabloWags said:

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He keeps ratcheting up the tariff pressure on the Chinese Government, but they don't work that way.
They have a lot of pride and don't want to be perceived as being "weak" by their people.
It's pretty simple.

But Trump, who takes pride in being a master negotiator is clueless.
That's how DUMB he is.

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Trump has bullied elected officials in smaller municipalities, subcontractors, bankers, fellow investors, game show contestants, publicists, news reporters, and women.

Good luck bullying China and Europe when he already cried wolf 6 years ago AND knowing he's as good as gone if they just wait him out.


Oh, I forgot to add spineless Congressmen and Senators to my list.

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Europe is easily bullied, look at Denmark with Greenland or Germany with Nordstream. China on the other hand, these guys will go to war rather than lose face.

Vietnam, Japan, S. Korea, Canada and even Taiwan - all these US allies have been needlessly antagonized.

DiabloWags said:

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socaltownie said:

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To me that also applies to would be trade partners. Lets posit (I think a safe, political science informed assumption) that non tariff trade barriers in other countries reflect the impact of domestic politics. They likely provide concentrated benefits. Now the diffuse harm of tanking their economies by accepting these barriers likely is greater. So a lot of folks (South Korea, Japan, etc.) are going to bite the bullet and "cut a deal". But the problem is how can they believe that after doing this Trump's world is credible and hey won't come back for ANOTHER bite at the Apple? (sorry pun intended). This is really foreign policy by numbskulls and is going to end horrifically.

PS. This isn't to say that we didn't need to undertake a long and painful readjustment to a WTO-admitted China. While I think there was a solid argument to be made for admitting the data on trade adjustments is pretty compelling - the dislocations were longer, deeper, and more painful than anyone predicted because workers have a hard time retraining and reskilling. But that is a longer argument for another day and one that required a much more complicated set of trade negotiations with China.

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I think you're missing a couple of key points here:

1.) The US has the biggest problem because we have tariffed EVERYBODY.

The other countries that you cite (South Korea, Japan, etc.) haven't screwed the pooch.
They still get to trade with everyone else without having to worry about being penalized.
For example, if China needs to purchase soybeans they just go to Brazil like they did during Trump's first term.

2.) The "tariffs" that the Trump Administration published weren't tariffs and they werent even reciprocal.

They were simply the trade deficit with the other country.
By the way, many of these numbers were simply made up.
Switzerland has NO TARIFFS on U.S. exports. But Trump claims they have a 61% tariff.

3.) How is a poor country like Vietnam supposed to buy $123 Billion of U.S. goods in order to erase their trade "imbalance" with the U.S.?

See how stupid this works?

4.) I agree that this "chaos" gives the U.S. ZERO CREDIBILITY.

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I have a quick solution for this.
GOP could suddenly impeach Trump, install Vance, and he can reset everything AND be setup for 2028.

Don't think it won't happen?

Ha! That would be freaking hilarious.
Trap Trump in a crime and send him packing.

Cal88 said:

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Europe is easily bullied, look at Denmark with Greenland

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What happened with Greenland? Did we get it already?

Quote:

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Vietnam, Japan, S. Korea, Canada and even Taiwan - all these US allies have been needlessly antagonized.

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Pfft. Trump probably tricks Melania into sex, by drugging her.




Although I suppose that's a requirement for him at this point.