Would they plan so poorly to get decimated in that area?

Cal88 said:

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BearGoggles said:

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Cal88 said:

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I would assume that Iran would have hundreds of launchers, I am not sure if that item really is a bottleneck in their operations. I don't think as well that they are throwing their kitchen sink into this, Israel being a nuclear power.

We will soon find out if your assumptions are correct.

---

As usual, your assumptions and conclusions are incorrect.

The lack of launchers is a massive part of the bottleneck. Israel is hugely focused on destroying the launchers, because Iran's strategy is to overwhelm Israeli defenses with simultaneous launches. That is why the daily decrease in Iran missile launches is both meaningful and revealing.

And LMAO at the argument that Iran is pulling punches. Israel has complete control of the country's airways and escalation dominance. Iran has no third party country coming to its aid. Yet you think the Mullahs are not fighting as if the existence of their regime is not at stake? OK.

And your continued citation to Macgregor is pretty funny. He's been wrong on pretty much everything, particularly with regard to Israel and Iran.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor, the dumbest colonel in human history. literally gets it wrong every f***ing time!! (And I know what “literally” means.) Tucker Carlson, sad. He’s probably just a few interviews away from publicly embracing Candace Owens’ lunatic antisemitism. Watch.

— Rafael Pi Roman (@RafPiRoman) June 15, 2025

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Macgregor's main point was that the 40,000 US troops stationed in countries near Iran, most of which within a few hundred miles on the other side of the Persian Gulf, were completely exposed to any Iranian strikes. Last year when Iran retaliated against the killing of Soleiman, they hit the Asad base in Iraq after giving the US advance notice and the soldiers were sheltered underground, it resulted in 36 traumatic brain injuries.

Question - if Iran is running out of missile launchers, and their capacity to fire missiles is compromised and dwindling, and with Israel having complete air superiority over Iran (allegedly), why would the Israeli government do something so drastic as to ban its citizens from fleeing the country??

Israeli minister of transportation Miri Regev confirms that only tourists and diplomats are allowed to leave the country.

Will anyone speak up for the Israelis being used as human shields by their despotic genocidal regime? pic.twitter.com/jpYw3YKqGj

— Dan Cohen (@dancohen3000) June 16, 2025

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So many lies in one post. That was not Macgregor's main point. And if it was, he was wrong.

Your claim (which I have not seen substantiated by a reputable source) that Israeli citizens can't leave has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not Iran is running out of missile launchers. Literally nothing. And then add a qualification that Israel only "allegedly" has air superiority? That is LOL absurd, both because we can see it on the news and Iran has no operational air force or air defenses. Why on earth would you deny or qualify that?

It is fine to have a different opinion. But you are so deluded by your detachment from objective facts and the inability to reason that your views are without any merit.

BearGoggles said:

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Cal88 said:

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BearGoggles said:

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Cal88 said:

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I would assume that Iran would have hundreds of launchers, I am not sure if that item really is a bottleneck in their operations. I don't think as well that they are throwing their kitchen sink into this, Israel being a nuclear power.

We will soon find out if your assumptions are correct.

---

As usual, your assumptions and conclusions are incorrect.

The lack of launchers is a massive part of the bottleneck. Israel is hugely focused on destroying the launchers, because Iran's strategy is to overwhelm Israeli defenses with simultaneous launches. That is why the daily decrease in Iran missile launches is both meaningful and revealing.

And LMAO at the argument that Iran is pulling punches. Israel has complete control of the country's airways and escalation dominance. Iran has no third party country coming to its aid. Yet you think the Mullahs are not fighting as if the existence of their regime is not at stake? OK.

And your continued citation to Macgregor is pretty funny. He's been wrong on pretty much everything, particularly with regard to Israel and Iran.

Colonel Douglas Macgregor, the dumbest colonel in human history. literally gets it wrong every f***ing time!! (And I know what “literally” means.) Tucker Carlson, sad. He’s probably just a few interviews away from publicly embracing Candace Owens’ lunatic antisemitism. Watch.

— Rafael Pi Roman (@RafPiRoman) June 15, 2025

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Macgregor's main point was that the 40,000 US troops stationed in countries near Iran, most of which within a few hundred miles on the other side of the Persian Gulf, were completely exposed to any Iranian strikes. Last year when Iran retaliated against the killing of Soleiman, they hit the Asad base in Iraq after giving the US advance notice and the soldiers were sheltered underground, it resulted in 36 traumatic brain injuries.

Question - if Iran is running out of missile launchers, and their capacity to fire missiles is compromised and dwindling, and with Israel having complete air superiority over Iran (allegedly), why would the Israeli government do something so drastic as to ban its citizens from fleeing the country??

Israeli minister of transportation Miri Regev confirms that only tourists and diplomats are allowed to leave the country.

Will anyone speak up for the Israelis being used as human shields by their despotic genocidal regime? pic.twitter.com/jpYw3YKqGj

— Dan Cohen (@dancohen3000) June 16, 2025

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So many lies in one post. That was not Macgregor's main point. And if it was, he was wrong.

Your claim (which I have not seen substantiated by a reputable source) that Israeli citizens can't leave has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not Iran is running out of missile launchers. Literally nothing. And then add a qualification that Israel only "allegedly" has air superiority? That is LOL absurd, both because we can see it on the news and Iran has no operational air force or air defenses. Why on earth would you deny or qualify that?

It is fine to have a different opinion. But you are so deluded by your detachment from objective facts and the inability to reason that your views are without any merit.

---

Macgregor has repeatedly made that point. It's kind of idiotic to doubt that the US intervening directly puts tens of thousands of US troops stationed around Iran, far closer than Israel, at great risk, which you are doing here. I would also point out that Macgregor has had first hand experience dealing in such a situation, albeit with a far, far weaker opponent in Irak.

It's also delusory to think that the Israeli government isn't blocking a mass exodus of its citizens for other reasons than it would look like a national panic is in place, they are trying to stem the tide there. If they believe that the worst is already over in terms of Iranian missile barrages, they would let their people go.

WRT Israeli air superiority over Iran, I would wait to see that information confirmed from reliable sources. The fog of war is pretty much in full effect a few days into this hot war. The amount of disinfo in the first few weeks of the Ukraine war was off the charts.

Well, X is exploding.

Oh.

🚨BREAKING: Dozens of U.S. warplanes are now in transit to the Middle East.

These aren’t training ops. This is a full-blown forward posture shift.
Air tankers, combat escorts, surveillance birds, moving in coordinated lanes.

Something is either already underway… or about to… pic.twitter.com/vwwm2s2fRz

— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) June 16, 2025

Trump rushing back to the White House, China state TV saying something big will happen tonight.

Daily Mail: Tucker Carlson warns that Fox News 'liars' [Mark Levin, others] influencing Trump could END his presidency over nuclear war

In the past I've heard MacGregor make many points:

- stop the wars, they can unravel in ways you don't anticipate
- Iran isn't Afghanistan; Iran has lots of missile technology and missiles
- Turkey, Russia, NK and China could back Iran
- Turkey can field a million man army
- this could lead to nuclear war
- the Israeli lobbying is pervasive
- it will take us ten years to ramp up military production; we're not on a war footing; we don't have surge production capacity (Russia does)
- NATO is in shambles
- Trump should put a stop to Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal (who lied about military service) conducting foreign policy

sycasey said:

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Oh.

🚨BREAKING: Dozens of U.S. warplanes are now in transit to the Middle East.

These aren’t training ops. This is a full-blown forward posture shift.
Air tankers, combat escorts, surveillance birds, moving in coordinated lanes.

Something is either already underway… or about to… pic.twitter.com/vwwm2s2fRz

— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) June 16, 2025

---

Take those one at a time.
Tankers refuel planes. Israel has our planes. We can service them.
Surveillance planes are not offensive war planes.
Combat escorts are fighters that protect other planes…offten bombers but most likely refuelers and surveillance planes, too (Iran's 40 year old fighters could be problematic against those two category of aircraft).

There isn't anything here that definitely indicates an escalation in offensive activity by the USAF, just more support and coordination.

tequila4kapp said:

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sycasey said:

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Oh.

🚨BREAKING: Dozens of U.S. warplanes are now in transit to the Middle East.

These aren’t training ops. This is a full-blown forward posture shift.
Air tankers, combat escorts, surveillance birds, moving in coordinated lanes.

Something is either already underway… or about to… pic.twitter.com/vwwm2s2fRz

— Brian Allen (@allenanalysis) June 16, 2025

---

Take those one at a time.
Tankers refuel planes. Israel has our planes. We can service them.
Surveillance planes are not offensive war planes.
Combat escorts are fighters that protect other planes…offten bombers but most likely refuelers and surveillance planes, too (Iran's 40 year old fighters could be problematic against those two category of aircraft).

There isn't anything here that definitely indicates an escalation in offensive activity by the USAF, just more support and coordination.

---

"Iran should have signed the “deal” I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!" –President Donald J. Trump pic.twitter.com/oniUSgsMWA

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 16, 2025

Where are the usual "suspects" that have been telling us how much of a genius Colonel MacGregor has been?

There are a few paths forward. One of them is Israeli use of force - with US providing support - until Iran capitulates on giving up their nuclear program. I think that's what we are seeing. We have basically said we aren't going to attack Iran unless they hit us first. There's nothing happening that is inconsistent with that messaging.

tequila4kapp said:

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There are a few paths forward. One of them is Israeli use of force - with US providing support - until Iran capitulates on giving up their nuclear program. I think that's what we are seeing. We have basically said we aren't going to attack Iran unless they hit us first. There's nothing happening that is inconsistent with that messaging.

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Yes, I'm sure the US President saying "immediately evacuate Tehran!" is going to be taken very calmly by everyone.

How the Israel-Iran war may develop


https://archive.is/2025.06.16-133027/https://www.ft.com/content/3a8d78b9-4923-4aef-a303-a0e973ef812d

Many fascists and pro Israeli extremists are trying to portray Israel's war on Iran as some kind of last ditch effort to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. This is a lie. We all know that the fascists will support their violence no matter the circumstances. And we all know the pro Israeli extremists will support Israeli violence no matter the genocidal consequences. They will lie and contort the facts so that their violence can come across as justified. This is the same constituency that supported the lies that got us into the Iraq War.

U.S. Intelligence says Iran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon and that if they did decide to pursue a nuclear weapon they were years away. The diplomacy pursued by Democratic Presidents in the past is the far superior approach. The U.S. should be out of the middle east entirely and not supporting any of these warmongering countries.

Quote:

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But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon

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https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away

tequila4kapp said:

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There are a few paths forward. One of them is Israeli use of force - with US providing support - until Iran capitulates on giving up their nuclear program. I think that's what we are seeing. We have basically said we aren't going to attack Iran unless they hit us first. There's nothing happening that is inconsistent with that messaging.

---

This is going to lead to escalation with the US getting directly involved in what looks like the biggest, worst chapter of Mideast Forever Wars, one with an opponent that is more closely connected to Russia and China, with deep consequences to the world oil market and economy. You yourself stated above that Israel alone cannot bomb Iranian facilities buried deep underground.

Bunker Busters?

DON'T BE SURPRISED IF USA SUFFERS AN ANONYMOUS ATTACK FROM WITHIN.

Ukraine smuggled drones deep into Russia and operated them remotely to destroy Russian planes.

Israel is operating from within Iran currently, it has been reported.

People are going to be pissed that their country is getting bombed. What do people do when they get poked?

American citizens are 24 years since feeling the pain.
Every generation learns on its own account.





It will all play beautifully into Trump's racist, xenophobic, America First mindset, allowing him to press forward with it.
It may work for HIM.
It's not a good development for Capital Markets, our economy, or anyone in the world.

Cal88 said:

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Epic post, reflects what I said above about the battle within the GOP between warmonging neocons and patriots. If people like Bernie Sanders were really antiwar, they would support that message:

Everyone is finding out who are real America First/MAGA and who were fake and just said it bc it was popular.

Unfortunately the list of fakes are becoming quite long and exposed themselves quickly.

Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war…

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸 (@RepMTG) June 15, 2025

"Everyone is finding out who are real America First/MAGA and who were fake and just said it bc it was popular.

Unfortunately the list of fakes are becoming quite long and exposed themselves quickly.

Anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA.

Wishing for murder of innocent people is disgusting.

We are sick and tired of foreign wars. All of them.

And this one will quickly engulf the Middle East, BRICS, and NATO as countries are required to take a side.

Real America First/MAGA wants world peace for all people and doesn't want our military killed and forever injured physically and mentally.

We love our U.S. military and love them helping to secure our borders and our cities for the defense of OUR PEOPLE AND OUR COUNTRY.

They are our friends, spouses, cousins, nieces, nephews, sisters, brothers, sons, and daughters.

We have spent TRILLIONS in the Middle East and we have dealt with the aftermath of death, blown apart bodies, never ending suicides, and disabling PTSD.

All because they told us propaganda as to why we must sacrifice our own to defend some other country's borders and some other country's borders.

I don't want to see Israel bombed or Iran bombed or Gaza bombed.

I don't want to see Ukraine bombed or Russia bombed.

And we do NOT want to be involved or required to pay for ANY OF IT!!!

We are $36+ TRILLION in debt and have mountains of our own problems.

We have giant planks sticking out of our own eyes while we complain about splinters in other's eyes.

Every country involved and all over the world can be happy, successful, and rich if we all work together and seek peace and prosperity.

Taking this position is NOT antisemitic.

It's rational, sane, and loving toward all people.

Taking this position of peace and prosperity for all is not isolationism, it leads to GREAT trade deals and GREAT economies that help ALL PEOPLE.

It's what many Americans voted for in 2024.

America First!
America First!!
America First!!!

That is how we Make America Great Again!!!!!

---

Oddly she is the voice of reason on this and her views are more reflective of the populace than our political establishment

Our establishment- both parties with a few exceptions on each side- Massie, Ro Khanna, etc- are way more pro Zionist than the country being a collection of neocons ( Lindsay Graham); religious fundamentalists in line with the messianic apocalyptic nut jobs in Israel ( Mike Johnson) ; bag men for Israeli money (Hakeem Jeffries); or Jews of dual loyalty (Chuck Schumer).

A resolution to prevent US involvement will be soundly defeated

The isolationist wing of the MAGA movement is just wrong. Protecting America's national interest does not make you a neocon.

Trump arguably tried harder than anyone to achieve a peaceful solution; Biden tried hard before him. Iran - a nation with so much oil they have zero energy justification for nukes - has refused. They backed themselves into a corner, which has left us limited options. Trump is showing remarkable restraint to this point, especially considering Iran allegedly tried to assassinate him.

Friendly reminder that we wouldn’t be in this mess if Obama didn’t send $1.7 billion on pallets of cash to Iran and if Biden didn’t unfreeze oil trade deals with Iran that funneled them $50+ billion

Once again, Trump is forced to clean up the mess of the DC warmonger machine

— DC_Draino (@DC_Draino) June 17, 2025

It doesn't matter, IMO. The only thing that matters is eliminating Iran's nuke capabilities.

Regime change isn't on the table but maybe it should be - get rid of certain people and maybe Iran exists as a non-terror supporting state.

concordtom said:

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Bunker Busters?

DON'T BE SURPRISED IF USA SUFFERS AN ANONYMOUS ATTACK FROM WITHIN.

Ukraine smuggled drones deep into Russia and operated them remotely to destroy Russian planes.

Israel is operating from within Iran currently, it has been reported.

People are going to be pissed that their country is getting bombed. What do people do when they get poked?

American citizens are 24 years since feeling the pain.
Every generation learns on its own account.





It will all play beautifully into Trump's racist, xenophobic, America First mindset, allowing him to press forward with it.
It may work for HIM.
It's not a good development for Capital Markets, our economy, or anyone in the world.

---

That's what happens when the Autopen Administration / WEF / Obama USAID imported 10 - 21 Million illegal, unvetted, uneducated immigrants.

If the Iranians want to tip the scales in their favor, they should take a page out of Qatar's playbook. Offer to buy Trump a 747 or better yet, an Airbus 380 ('cause they're even bigger) well as prime property in downtown Tehran to build a Trump Tower. Suddenly the US flow of weapons to Israel will shrink to a trickle.

tequila4kapp said:

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It doesn't matter, IMO. The only thing that matters is eliminating Iran's nuke capabilities.

---

Serious question: how do you think any limited military operation would permanently "eliminate" nuclear capabilities? Seems to me that to do this would also require permanent occupation, because why wouldn't they just start building bombs again once we leave? Being attacked/invaded would be the perfect evidence that having nukes is necessary!

HearstMining said:

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If the Iranians want to tip the scales in their favor, they should take a page out of Qatar's playbook. Offer to buy Trump a 747 or better yet, an Airbus 380 ('cause they're even bigger) well as prime property in downtown Tehran to build a Trump Tower. Suddenly the US flow of weapons to Israel will shrink to a trickle.

---

Liberal delusions. It was crackhead Biden who was the bagman for the Biden family. How depraved to send him to China w his VP Dad, and also corrupt Ukraine. This tops the Clinton family allegedly helping to rebuild Haiti.

sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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It doesn't matter, IMO. The only thing that matters is eliminating Iran's nuke capabilities.

---

Serious question: how do you think any limited military operation would permanently "eliminate" nuclear capabilities? Seems to me that to do this would also require permanent occupation, because why wouldn't they just start building bombs again once we leave? Being attacked/invaded would be the perfect evidence that having nukes is necessary!

---

Yeah, I acknowledge it isn't easy. I don't want the US to be in the business of nation building. And it is a universal truth that ultimately you make peace deals with your enemies - people you don't trust - and you have to trust (and verify).

One scenario could be the current nuke capabilities are destroyed militarily and the current regime bends the knee on full unfettered ongoing inspections. Variations would be agreeing to the destruction of nuke capabilities (instead of militarily) as part of a tacit understanding there is no regime change. Another variation could include regime change.

tequila4kapp said:

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sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

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It doesn't matter, IMO. The only thing that matters is eliminating Iran's nuke capabilities.

---

Serious question: how do you think any limited military operation would permanently "eliminate" nuclear capabilities? Seems to me that to do this would also require permanent occupation, because why wouldn't they just start building bombs again once we leave? Being attacked/invaded would be the perfect evidence that having nukes is necessary!

---

Yeah, I acknowledge it isn't easy. I don't want the US to be in the business of nation building. And it is a universal truth that ultimately you make peace deals with your enemies - people you don't trust - and you have to trust (and verify).

One scenario could be the current nuke capabilities are destroyed militarily and the current regime bends the knee on full unfettered ongoing inspections. Variations would be agreeing to the destruction of nuke capabilities (instead of militarily) as part of a tacit understanding there is no regime change. Another variation could include regime change.

---

All of these scenarios sound like some version of "nation building" to me.

sycasey said:

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tequila4kapp said:

---

sycasey said:

---

tequila4kapp said:

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It doesn't matter, IMO. The only thing that matters is eliminating Iran's nuke capabilities.

---

Serious question: how do you think any limited military operation would permanently "eliminate" nuclear capabilities? Seems to me that to do this would also require permanent occupation, because why wouldn't they just start building bombs again once we leave? Being attacked/invaded would be the perfect evidence that having nukes is necessary!

---

Yeah, I acknowledge it isn't easy. I don't want the US to be in the business of nation building. And it is a universal truth that ultimately you make peace deals with your enemies - people you don't trust - and you have to trust (and verify).

One scenario could be the current nuke capabilities are destroyed militarily and the current regime bends the knee on full unfettered ongoing inspections. Variations would be agreeing to the destruction of nuke capabilities (instead of militarily) as part of a tacit understanding there is no regime change. Another variation could include regime change.

---

All of these scenarios sound like some version of "nation building" to me.

---

All of the scenarios don't sound like nation building to me.

Now Trump is tweeting we control the airspace over Iran and know where the Supreme leader is?

Axios is reporting that per 3 WH sources Trump is meeting with national security advisors at 1pm today to decide on joining the war. Israel cannot take out the major underground nuke facility on their own; we have to do it with the big bunker busting bombs.

Note the leak from the WH sources…those must be MAGA isolationists.

Unless there is some unannounced stuff that creates urgency I would prefer to let Israel beat Iran down, give the Mullahs time to realize their fate is sealed, and to capitulate…all without us getting in.

Is this what $100 Million gets you?

🇺🇸🇮🇷🚨‼️ TRUMP:

1) Demands unconditional surrender from Iran

2) Says the Ayatollah is an easy target and can be eliminated

3) Has declared USA has air supremacy over Iran

A lot on couple of tweets … I don’t think we’re deescalating soon pic.twitter.com/kYAK58Pzwg

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 17, 2025

Trump can too close to Palantir … palantir wants WW3 pic.twitter.com/Hf8P4TLZa0

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) June 17, 2025

This looks like a terrible turning point for this Trump administration, the neocons have won.

I hope it does not happen, at least not this way. There needs to be a reason - an imperative - for US involvement. Give Israel more time.

Also, talk of taking out the Ayatollah…isn't it illegal for us to do that? Even if not illegal, that's a major major escalation that likely erodes our credibility. We shouldn't be in that business.

Let Israel send ground troops in if they want to destroy the underground site. It 's not our deal

Who flipped him, Mark Levin?

Only saving grace is if Putin assured him he wouldn't join the fray. On the flip side, Putin could give Iran their new midrange hypersonic unblockable missiles (Chestnut?) which could reach our military bases in the EU. Unblockable.

what a disaster. So great we have NY real estate mogul/tie salesman leading us into this mess.

MAGAts, we didn't learn in the first term.

VOTE BLUE

Go Bears Forever

I'm currently watching Fox. Holy hell the Neocons are being fully represented on by Fox' native on air personalities.